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Thread: Stat geeks, take heart. Everyone else, keep panicing

  1. #11
    1st Scoring Line RoyalSubject's Avatar




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    Quote Originally Posted by santiclaws View Post
    I love statements of pure belief, unadulterated by any facts or logic. Why, because it, along with Fenwick, is a good statistical predictor of success? Because stat geeks were counseling Kings' opponents in the 11-12 playoffs to "be very afraid" and citing Corsi as the reason for their opinion? It's not a crystal ball, it's a statistical tool subject to the same pitfalls as any others statistical tool. But as statistical tools go, it's a pretty good one.
    There's at least one person in every advanced stats discussion who doesn't understand statistics, especially that pesky regression to mean.
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  2. #12
    1st Scoring Line RoyalSubject's Avatar




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    Quote Originally Posted by FishMonger View Post
    If I can get good marks on a stat by standing there with the puck doing nothing, I have a hard time thinking it's a pretty good indicator of anything.
    Sounds like you don't understand Corsi. There has to be a shot for Corsi to be affected. Standing there doing nothing means no change to a team or player's Corsi stat.
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  3. #13
    I revoke Man Cards FishMonger's Avatar




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    Quote Originally Posted by RoyalSubject View Post
    Sounds like you don't understand Corsi. There has to be a shot for Corsi to be affected. Standing there doing nothing means no change to a team or player's Corsi stat.
    Sorry, by nothing I mean sucking. Like missing wide open nets (as I mentioned before) and getting shots blocked. Because that is a great indicator of a team doing well.
    Last edited by FishMonger; January 30th, 2014 at 10:59 AM.
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  4. #14
    changing the game TBrown33's Avatar




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    Quote Originally Posted by FishMonger View Post
    If I can get good marks on a stat by standing there with the puck doing nothing, I have a hard time thinking it's a pretty good indicator of anything.
    The top teams in the league in corsi have almost always been the top teams in the standings. It's a stat that points DIRECTLY to winning hockey games over proper sample sizes, yet, here we are.

    NHL Team Advanced Stats | Extra Skater
    NHL Team Advanced Stats | Extra Skater
    NHL Team Advanced Stats | Extra Skater
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    Maybe I misunderstand the point of corsi but what's the point of high numbers in puck possession if you can't do anything with it? As a defensive tool it works great. To generate offense it doesn't seem to matter what so ever.

    The Anaheim game for example. Two quick goals and then they parked the bus because they now they can do it. Doing it against more "creative" teams is probably not a wise idea. Against the Kings you can and they could.

    In effect, the corsi numbers doesn't make me feel any better about the Kings chances to play games in June. I think April is max for this team.

  6. #16
    changing the game TBrown33's Avatar




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    The current losing streak has seen continually high possession numbers with abnormally low shooting percentages, right? It's very simple, and it actually already happened two years ago when the Kings won the cup.

    They were going through a losing period in January. They couldn't score for **** but their possession numbers were still lethal. They were going through a spell with low PDO/shooting percentage. An unsustainably low shooting percentage given the talent on the roster. Sound familiar?

    That's because what the Kings are doing right now, much like in 2012, is unsustainable. I mean this in a good way. They are shooting at such a low rate that it cannot possibly stay that low. And it won't. Watch, they're gonna start winning again soon. And the timing - going into the playoffs, much like in 2012 - couldn't be better.

  7. #17
    I revoke Man Cards FishMonger's Avatar




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    Edit: Nevermind.
    Some people here want to believe missing an open net from 2 feet away improves a legit stat. I would argue that a stat improved by such an action is ****ing stupid, but to each their own.

    God bless America
    Last edited by FishMonger; January 30th, 2014 at 11:09 AM.
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  8. #18
    Iím sicka the high hat!! santiclaws's Avatar




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    Quote Originally Posted by FishMonger View Post
    If I can get good marks on a stat by standing there with the puck doing nothing, I have a hard time thinking it's a pretty good indicator of anything.
    If you're standing there with the puck, you're not doing nothing. You're preventing the other team from shooting and you're forcing them to spend energy trying to take the puck away from you. It has already been pointed out that Corsi is a measure of shots, but I think it's pretty intuitive that limiting your opponents' shots is a good defensive strategy. What you're talking about is possession, but it dovetails nicely with Corsi, because the other team can't generate shots, and therefore scoring chances, if it doesn't have the puck. So even if you're not scoring when you have the puck, you're preventing the other team from scoring. If one team has the puck 15.2% of the time more than the other team, which is what the Kings do to the other teams, I think it is pretty easy to see why that is important.

    15.2% of 60 minutes is over nine minutes of difference in time of possession per game. That's a lot. Now you project that out to a seven-game series and you see that it amounts to the Kings having the puck almost an entire game more than the other team. In a tight playoff series, that is an enormous advantage.
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  9. #19
    Luc says: how you doin'? VegasHockey's Avatar




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    You miss 100% of the shot you don't take ............. or, in the Kings case, you also miss 100% of the shots you do take as well.
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  10. #20
    It's all good man Bogey's Avatar




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    There's some...arguments going on here.

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