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Thread: Stat geeks, take heart. Everyone else, keep panicing

  1. #21
    Super Sexy Birdman's Avatar




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    So based on those charts, we're going to lose 2-0, with 1 Empty Net?
    at the draft party a couple of years ago, and under a considerable haze, i heard Birdman yell out the following (about 4 or 5 times, i think) - "don't marry yourselves to players!" he went on to reiterate that idea more than once on the boards, and i believe it to be absolutely sage.

    ---gescom

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    1st Scoring Line eskymi's Avatar




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    I don't put a lot of stock into the stats they come up with, but you can not argue with success. I checked the Corsi stuff over the last few years and wouldn't you know, damn never every year the teams near the top were in the finals.

    Not sure how to read them but it appeared to me that the 2010-2011 stats something about +/- 5 on 5 over 60 minutes or some thing like that..anyway it showed #1 Boston and # 2 Vancouver and they were in the finals together. Weird, so it seems to work.
    eddieshack23 likes this.

  3. #23
    Kopitarian English Bulldog's Avatar




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    I'm still reeling that the Kings are shooting at a 6.4%

    Thought it would be much lower.........
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  4. #24
    1st Scoring Line RoyalSubject's Avatar




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    Quote Originally Posted by santiclaws View Post
    If you're standing there with the puck, you're not doing nothing. You're preventing the other team from shooting and you're forcing them to spend energy trying to take the puck away from you. It has already been pointed out that Corsi is a measure of shots, but I think it's pretty intuitive that limiting your opponents' shots is a good defensive strategy. What you're talking about is possession, but it dovetails nicely with Corsi, because the other team can't generate shots, and therefore scoring chances, if it doesn't have the puck. So even if you're not scoring when you have the puck, you're preventing the other team from scoring. If one team has the puck 15.2% of the time more than the other team, which is what the Kings do to the other teams, I think it is pretty easy to see why that is important.

    15.2% of 60 minutes is over nine minutes of difference in time of possession per game. That's a lot. Now you project that out to a seven-game series and you see that it amounts to the Kings having the puck almost an entire game more than the other team. In a tight playoff series, that is an enormous advantage.
    It's important to note also that Corsi is a proxy for puck possession where the idea is that the team shooting more often is probably possessing the puck more often too.

    Kinda sad how many people don't understand statistics. It should be required high school cirriculum, imo.
    KINGS17 likes this.

  5. #25
    3rd Line Role Player YodaButter's Avatar




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    Quote Originally Posted by santiclaws View Post
    I love statements of pure belief, unadulterated by any facts or logic. Why, because it, along with Fenwick, is a good statistical predictor of success? Because stat geeks were counseling Kings' opponents in the 11-12 playoffs to "be very afraid" and citing Corsi as the reason for their opinion? It's not a crystal ball, it's a statistical tool subject to the same pitfalls as any others statistical tool. But as statistical tools go, it's a pretty good one.
    I don't think Corsi/Fenwick is the be-all and end-all for stats, but then again nobody's presenting them as such either. It's simply the best stat we have currently that correlates with future success. This has been proven by numbers and math. I like numbers and math because they very rarely lie.

    Yes, it continues to feel a little weird to me that a lazy unscreened shot from the point that sails 10 feet wide is counted equally as a quick one-timer from a cross-ice pass. Maybe the NHL will implement SportVU cameras and the higher quality data will lead to all kinds of new fancystats. 10 years from now, we might all be laughing at ourselves for relying on such primitive and flawed stats as Corsi and Fenwick. And that would be great. But 'til that happens Corsi and Fenwick are still pretty damn good.

    *I am sometimes convinced that the Kings will be the team that breaks Corsi and Fenwick though. Stagnant, static offense with a high number of shots that aren't dangerous at all? It's a fancystat advocate's greatest nightmare.

  6. #26
    Classic player VCRW's Avatar




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    I used to own a '66 Corvair Corsi. It was the 173 hp turbo-charged model and went like a bat out of hell until I had to turn a corner.
    eddieshack23 and mugs like this.

  7. #27
    That's all, folks! Wolvie's Avatar




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    Quote Originally Posted by RoyalSubject View Post
    Kinda sad how many people don't understand statistics. It should be required high school cirriculum, imo.
    Far more important to learn than spelling.

  8. #28
    mmmmm Taco's jammer06's Avatar




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    Quote Originally Posted by wolvie View Post
    far more important to learn than spelling.
    lol

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    1st Scoring Line RoyalSubject's Avatar




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    Quote Originally Posted by Wolvie View Post
    Far more important to learn than spelling.
    Or learning to write complete sentences?

    See, I can do that too.

  10. #30
    It's all good man Bogey's Avatar




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    Quote Originally Posted by English Bulldog View Post
    I'm still reeling that the Kings are shooting at a 6.4%

    Thought it would be much lower.........
    The final shooting percentage after the 2012 Cup run was 9.3%.

    If they were shooting 9.3% now, what would their goal total be?

    They would have 22 more goals., 155 vs their 133 now.

    How many more wins would that translate into?
    Last edited by Bogey; January 30th, 2014 at 12:03 PM.
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