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Thread: Stat geeks, take heart. Everyone else, keep panicing

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    Iím sicka the high hat!! santiclaws's Avatar




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    Default Stat geeks, take heart. Everyone else, keep panicing

    "The Kings are the strongest puck possession team in the NHL. They currently lead the league with a 56.9% Corsi percentage. That would also be the 3rd best mark of the #fancystat era (which started in ’07-08). Going into this year there have been 4 teams that had a Corsi percentage higher than 56%. 2 have won the Stanley Cup, 1 lost in the Final and the other made it to the Conference Finals.

    That's all well and good, but how has LA fared over this 17 game downturn?
    Over that period and in close game situations, the Kings have churned out a 57.5%. They have actually improved their possession numbers despite the recent funk.
    Among the factors within a team’s control, puck possession is the most important. No other factor is more predictive of future wins.

    At their core, the Kings have continued to be a dominant possession team. Above all else, this is a sign that things aren’t broken or that the team needs a makeover. It is still the same elite team that won Stanley Cup 2 seasons ago, made the Western Conference Finals last year and is 70-40-14 since the acquisition of Jeff Carter."




    The Kings are still a very good team and will win lots of games soon. - Jewels From The Crown

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    Schadenfreude ryan's Avatar




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    I've got my spot all picked out for the Corsi victory parade.
    Wolvie, Jran, rigatony and 3 others like this.

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    mmmmm Taco's jammer06's Avatar




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    The LA Kings are obviously on a one team crusade to prove Corsi wrong
    Jran, KopiFan11, Peggy_GKG and 2 others like this.

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    1st Scoring Line RoyalSubject's Avatar




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    Being marginally familiar with advanced stats, I've been wondering how bad their PDO has been through this slump given the overwhelming puck possession they've still had.

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    5 Year Plan - D.R.I. fiveholio's Avatar




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    Quote Originally Posted by RoyalSubject View Post
    Being marginally familiar with advanced stats, I've been wondering how bad their PDO has been through this slump given the overwhelming puck possession they've still had.
    Interesting you ask...

    HockeyBuzz.com - Ryan Wilson - Measuring Luck And What It Says About the Kings And Penguins

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    Schadenfreude ryan's Avatar




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    Quote Originally Posted by jammer06 View Post
    The LA Kings are obviously on a one team crusade to prove Corsi wrong
    I just think Corsi is one of those advanced stats created to explain a concept, which it does, but it doesn't give the whole picture of what's going on out there either.

    It's like the Moneyball Stats where they at one time put so much emphasis on numbers like On-Base Percentage, which fell to the wayside when it failed to accurately translate to on-field success.

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    I revoke Man Cards FishMonger's Avatar




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    Corsi is ****ing stupid.

    Any stat that indicates you're doing well for missing a wide open net is fundamentally flawed.

    And ****ing stupid.

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    1st Scoring Line




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    Great, so Corsi has finally been disproved as, at least, mattering in a vacuum.

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    Iím sicka the high hat!! santiclaws's Avatar




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    Quote Originally Posted by FishMonger View Post
    Corsi is ****ing stupid.
    I love statements of pure belief, unadulterated by any facts or logic. Why, because it, along with Fenwick, is a good statistical predictor of success? Because stat geeks were counseling Kings' opponents in the 11-12 playoffs to "be very afraid" and citing Corsi as the reason for their opinion? It's not a crystal ball, it's a statistical tool subject to the same pitfalls as any others statistical tool. But as statistical tools go, it's a pretty good one.

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    I revoke Man Cards FishMonger's Avatar




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    Quote Originally Posted by santiclaws View Post
    I love statements of pure belief, unadulterated by any facts or logic. Why, because it, along with Fenwick, is a good statistical predictor of success? Because stat geeks were counseling Kings' opponents in the 11-12 playoffs to "be very afraid" and citing Corsi as the reason for their opinion? It's not a crystal ball, it's a statistical tool subject to the same pitfalls as any others statistical tool. But as statistical tools go, it's a pretty good one.
    If I can get good marks on a stat by standing there with the puck doing nothing, I have a hard time thinking it's a pretty good indicator of anything.

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