Thread: Statistically speaking, the Kings are still the Kings

Release your inner stat geek!

HockeyBuzz.com - Travis Yost - Score-Adjusted Fenwick Standings: Is Your Team For Real?

LA Kings? Still the best team in hockey. Chicago's going to be a worthy challenger to the throne this year, as will a couple of other legitimate Western Conference contenders. Playoffs should be fantastic.

Love geeky stats!!!

Thanks for sharing!

Cheers,

Andrew K

statistics, wish i could write an algorithm like that

It was an interesting read. Seems like it did some good work at looking at the difference between a hot streak and a truly good team.

Won't pretend to understand it, but I like the result!

Originally Posted by Peggy_GKG

Won't pretend to understand it, but I like the result!

It ain't as complicated as it sounds. Whether a team consistently shoots more than its opponents is a good predictor of the team's success, which is essentially what Fenwick measures (it includes shots that are not included in the official "shots on goal" stat). One weakness of the Fenwick stat is that teams tend to go into a defensive shell when leading and thus get outshot (and obviously, the opposite happens when they are behind). If a team is behind often, the regular Fenwick would tend to overrate it and would tend to underrate teams that are usually leading. The "Score Adjusted Fenwick" stat attempts to account for that by giving more weight to shot differential when teams are tied and less to shot differential when the team is ahead or behind - hence "score adjusted." This statistic, over the long term, has a high rate of success in predicting how teams will do over the course of 82 games.

Originally Posted by santiclaws

It ain't as complicated as it sounds. Whether a team consistently shoots more than its opponents is a good predictor of the team's success, which is essentially what Fenwick measures (it includes shots that are not included in the official "shots on goal" stat). One weakness of the Fenwick stat is that teams tend to go into a defensive shell when leading and thus get outshot (and obviously, the opposite happens when they are behind). If a team is behind often, the regular Fenwick would tend to overrate it and would tend to underrate teams that are usually leading. The "Score Adjusted Fenwick" stat attempts to account for that by giving more weight to shot differential when teams are tied and less to shot differential when the team is ahead or behind - hence "score adjusted." This statistic, over the long term, has a high rate of success in predicting how teams will do over the course of 82 games.

Nice cliff note version

Originally Posted by santiclaws

It ain't as complicated as it sounds. Whether a team consistently shoots more than its opponents is a good predictor of the team's success, which is essentially what Fenwick measures (it includes shots that are not included in the official "shots on goal" stat). One weakness of the Fenwick stat is that teams tend to go into a defensive shell when leading and thus get outshot (and obviously, the opposite happens when they are behind). If a team is behind often, the regular Fenwick would tend to overrate it and would tend to underrate teams that are usually leading. The "Score Adjusted Fenwick" stat attempts to account for that by giving more weight to shot differential when teams are tied and less to shot differential when the team is ahead or behind - hence "score adjusted." This statistic, over the long term, has a high rate of success in predicting how teams will do over the course of 82 games.

So I'm in the camp of not understanding this too well but does this mean your goalie isn't factored into your team's "ranking?" Also, are the quality of the chances, or officially "scoring chances," not factored in? Thanks for the help in understanding.

Originally Posted by TheAnzer

So I'm in the camp of not understanding this too well but does this mean your goalie isn't factored into your team's "ranking?" Also, are the quality of the chances, or officially "scoring chances," not factored in?

Correct on both counts. It is a pretty simple stat. If you are shooting more than the other team, it likely means that you are spending more time in their zone than they are in yours and if you're doing that, you tend to win. That's it.