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After a pretty good start to the season, it would be a shame to see them back in the lottery once again. I harbor no illusions about the talent level of the team once Kovalchuk exits, but I just hope to see some fight out of them for the next 4 months. I've had a lot of frustration watching my one team hit rock bottom to rebuild, I hate to go through it with my other. Best method or not, losing to get better leaves a very sour taste in my mouth.Originally Posted by gescom
i know for sure that handzus is due $4M next year and then done.
coming off this year are frolov ($4M), Ivanans (.6M), Jones (1.5M/half of $3M), O'Donnell ($1.25M) and Cloutier ($1M), not to mention multiple RFA's and a few of them might not get re-signed (Purcell)
That's $7M+ and we are already quite a bit under right now.
They will probably have to give Richardson a raise.
The following year, Handzus ($4M), Williams ($3.5M), Harrold (.55M), Ersberg (.75M) and McAulley (.667M)expire. That's another $9.5M. The only one I see the Kings re-signing is Williams but not sure he'll be healthy enough at that point. If they do try to keep Handzus he won't get $4M again.
Simmonds and Doughty and Johnson will be due.
This will be the year that DL has to think about. No telling what each will command for sure, but you'd have to think they are going to try and sign Doughty to a long term deal. If Johnson doesn't show some major improvement over the next year and a half I don't imagine he will re-sign here as he'll probably want more than he's worth. Simmonds isn't a big time goal scorer so he'll probably get $2-3M/year or so.
Again, I agree that he shouldn't sign Kovy if it's more than $8M/year cap hit.
not sure if either will make it next year, but if either do it will probably be schenn. i'm guessing hickey will need another year...but that's just me talking off the cuff.
Lecavalier will be 30 this year, Kovy is 3 years younger. Kovy also hasn't had any major injuries while Lecavalier had a pretty bad injury last year that some argue is still bothering him. I believe it was a shoulder. Lecavalier's also getting $10M for the next 6 years. That deal is a bad contract in that Lecavalier is signed until he's 40.
If Kovy gets $8M/year for 7 years he'll still only be 35 when the contract ends and should still be a productive player at that point.
I've stated before that Kovy isn't worth $9M or more. I think $8M is about right. He's just not worth Ovie/Crosby money and I think DL knows that. So in a lot of ways this convesation might be irrelevant.
What Dean's expectation is, I don't know.
My expectation is that the Kings finish 6-8. So you're going up against a division leader:
At 8, we'd play Chicago. We could play Chicago, but I don't know if we can outlast Chicago. Especially a Chicago that's already playoff tested. So... one and done.
At 7, we'd go up against San Jose. That'd come down to who has more balls and, really, it could take a while to find some throughout that entire series for either team. I mean, really - Thornton v. Kopitar? Kopitar is no Getzlaf as a #1 center, so I gotta give Joe the edge there so he can fold against some other team. So... one and done, but this is the best chance.
My biggest fear is that we finish 6 and draw Calgary or Vancouver in the first round. That'd be a war of attrition and once either of them smacked us in the mouth, the front end would fold. So... one and done.
Still, one and done is progress. And the team has to expect playoff failure before it gets playoff success. No need to assume this is THE season and be upset when they don't go all the way to the Conference Finals. And no need to go giving away all the capital the Kings have built up in the past 3 seasons in order to make a run with 30+ year olds that the team just acquired. Unless you wanna see what it would take to get Mark Parrish and Brent Sopel again.
But you don't just dump those guys, you have to replace them. If Ivanans comes off at $.6M then Westgarth comes on at at $.525M, so that saves almost nothing. If O'Donnell comes off at $1.25M then someone else comes on at AT LEAST $.6M so AT BEST that saves $.625 but more then likely they want another veteran who will cost about the same as O'Donnell. Same with Jones. If Hickey makes the team his cap hit will be a little over $1.3M.
Parse too.They will probably have to give Richardson a raise.
And they ALL need to be replaced. Handzus will likely be replaced by Schenn at about $3M, you won't replace Harrold for LESS than $.55M, and Ersberg's most likely replacement is Bernier who's at $.833M so you don't even save anything there.The following year, Handzus ($4M), Williams ($3.5M), Harrold (.55M), Ersberg (.75M) and McAulley (.667M)expire. That's another $9.5M. The only one I see the Kings re-signing is Williams but not sure he'll be healthy enough at that point. If they do try to keep Handzus he won't get $4M again.
Williams MIGHT save some but again, if they don't sign him, the guy has to be replaced at RW and if Brown goes to Atlanta, who plays RW with Kopitar and Schenn? Simmonds and Parse??? Don't count on Moller - I doubt he'll even be a King then.
Johnson will probably be gone by then too, but by trade - maybe in a Kovalchuk-type deal. Doughty will probably command something in the $6.5M range.Simmonds and Doughty and Johnson will be due.
This will be the year that DL has to think about. No telling what each will command for sure, but you'd have to think they are going to try and sign Doughty to a long term deal. If Johnson doesn't show some major improvement over the next year and a half I don't imagine he will re-sign here as he'll probably want more than he's worth. Simmonds isn't a big time goal scorer so he'll probably get $2-3M/year or so.
I can almost guarantee it will be.Again, I agree that he shouldn't sign Kovy if it's more than $8M/year cap hit.
nI think you're probably right.ot sure if either will make it next year, but if either do it will probably be schenn. i'm guessing hickey will need another year...but that's just me talking off the cuff.
Maybe but I wouldn't count on it. His history tells us he's hard to motivate and he'll be more like Bure - when he's 32 or 33 he'll start to decline alot.Lecavalier will be 30 this year, Kovy is 3 years younger. Kovy also hasn't had any major injuries while Lecavalier had a pretty bad injury last year that some argue is still bothering him. I believe it was a shoulder. Lecavalier's also getting $10M for the next 6 years. That deal is a bad contract in that Lecavalier is signed until he's 40.
If Kovy gets $8M/year for 7 years he'll still only be 35 when the contract ends and should still be a productive player at that point.
I think you're right and I hope so in that I hope DL won't sign him to that big a deal.I've stated before that Kovy isn't worth $9M or more. I think $8M is about right. He's just not worth Ovie/Crosby money and I think DL knows that. So in a lot of ways this convesation might be irrelevant.
Why not 5 or even 4? Do you really think Phoenix, Colorado, Nashville, and even Vancouver aren't catchable? Detroit has too many injury problems and Dallas is just wacky. I think 5 is just as likely as 6, and 4 is achievable.
Maybe, but history tells us SJ is beatable in the 1st round...very beatable - even when they're the #1 seed.At 8, we'd play Chicago. We could play Chicago, but I don't know if we can outlast Chicago. Especially a Chicago that's already playoff tested. So... one and done.
At 7, we'd go up against San Jose. That'd come down to who has more balls and, really, it could take a while to find some throughout that entire series for either team. I mean, really - Thornton v. Kopitar? Kopitar is no Getzlaf as a #1 center, so I gotta give Joe the edge there so he can fold against some other team. So... one and done, but this is the best chance.
Chicago looks good, but what if they trade Barker and Versteeg in a deal for Kovalchuk and he doesn't fit in?
Calgary's a little scary but Vancouver doesn't scare me. I think the Kings would match up just fine with them.My biggest fear is that we finish 6 and draw Calgary or Vancouver in the first round. That'd be a war of attrition and once either of them smacked us in the mouth, the front end would fold. So... one and done.
Sure it's progress, but I would be disappointed if the Kings went into that series and I was thinking "they probably can't win this". I don't expect the Conference Finals and I don't really "expect" them to win in the first round, but I absolutely think they could. I also think trading away Johnson and Bernier wouldn't be giving away "all" the capital. Some? Sure. But hardly all.Still, one and done is progress. And the team has to expect playoff failure before it gets playoff success. No need to assume this is THE season and be upset when they don't go all the way to the Conference Finals. And no need to go giving away all the capital the Kings have built up in the past 3 seasons in order to make a run with 30+ year olds that the team just acquired. Unless you wanna see what it would take to get Mark Parrish and Brent Sopel again.
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