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Thread: Dodgers sign Andruw Jones

  1. #61
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    Well, Kenny Williams is the same guy who traded Carlos Lee for Scott Podsednik, so I guess anything's possible.

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    I think we can attribute his decline in production last season to his injury problems (the percentage of Andruw's fly balls that left the park dropped from 26% in 06 to 15% in 07, something to be expected from a guy with a bum shoulder). I expect that Andruw will be back to 100% by spring training and have a rebound year.

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    from InsidetheDodgers:

    Ned confirmed just a few minutes ago that the Jones deal is done pending a physical, which will probably be on Tuesday. He explained how this had gained steam from Monday when they arrived and was finalized last night, right before the news broke by the LA writers who were on site here. I was in our suite when it all went down and it's fair to say that there was quite a buzz of excitement about all of this.

    Some key points from his talk with the media:

    He said that this doesn't necessarily mean we'll have to move an outfielder and he likes the depth it creates in the outfield. He also said it allows us to be more focused in our quest for pitching.

    He also said this makes him a little bit more comfortable about the in-house options at third base. If something comes up that is a really great option, we would do it, but pitching is the greater priority.

    He praised all of our staff in getting this done and the McCourts for being willing to make a move of this nature.

    He was asked about Don Mattingly's effect on Jones and he said he has been very impressed with Don and the fact that he came down here from Evansville and has fit in immediately with everyone at the team. He's looking forward to seeing him work with our players, especially the young guys.

    Ned reached out to Juan Pierre last night to talk about how this affects him, but wasn't able to reach him. And when asked if he regrets signing Pierre, he said he absolutely does not. He can't re-write history, but he implored everyone to look back at the circumstances that we were in when we signed him (only one outfielder with more than a month of experience in the Majors - Ethier). He pointed out that Juan did exactly what we expected him to do and that he has never said that Juan was a franchise player. He's a very good player on a winning team and the reason we didn't win last year was not Juan Pierre's fault.

    He continued to say that as a team, we're not of a mind to give up three or four players for one star pitcher or player. He reiterated that we're not going to do something just to do it, but that we've zeroed in on two or three pitchers and will see if anything can happen. Obviously Kuroda remains a viable option.

  4. #64
    Iron Duke
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    Quote Originally Posted by ASUcruz View Post
    And again how much money would it have saved? Rowand is seeking a big deal for longer years. It wouldn't have made sense to lock up another mediocre OF for 5 years.
    Agreed, the guy's only put up two solid years in his seven year career. I appreciate the grit, but I don't understand the love for Rowand.

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    from SI:

    As another slow day at the winter meetings came to a close -- one signing, one trade -- the Los Angeles Dodgers made their best move in a very long time. Showing an appreciation of sunk costs and the value of short-term deals, the Dodgers signed center fielder Andruw Jones to a two-year, $36.2 million contract. The deal looks outlandish for its annual salary of $18 million, but the overall commitment makes it one of the great bargains in recent memory.

    The signing was a surprise on many levels. For one, the Dodgers have made some terrible decisions over the past two years since Ned Colletti was named general manager. Colletti threw away more than $100 million last winter on free agents who combined to block better players and push the Dodgers away from contention. He's also shown a willingness to deal away the team's young talent for little return, and if trades of Joel Guzman, Edwin Jackson, and Dioner Navarro haven't quite burned them, the returns for those players have done nothing to help the Dodgers win, either.

    Consider also that the Dodgers have an expensive albatross in Juan Pierre, the good-guy, bad-player combination to whom they owe $36 million over the next four seasons. Pierre was already an inadequate center fielder, and he'll be even worse, relative to par, in left field, where he may block a better player in Andre Ethier. That's a problem for another day; Jones is a three- to five-win upgrade on Pierre in each of the next two seasons. Consider that Jones' WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) in 2007, the worst year of his career, was 4.6. Pierre's WARP in 2006 and 2007 combined was 4.3. Jones' career-low EqA of .251 was within shouting distance of Pierre's career EqA of .256. He's simply a much, much better player than Pierre is, and we haven't compared their arms yet.

    Jones had some difficulty getting traction in a market loaded with center fielders. He's coming off the worst season of his life, a .222/.311/.413 nightmare, and taking criticism for defense that is actually still above average, just not at the level he played when he was younger. When you look a bit more closely at Jones' season, though, you find that many of his indicators were stable. His walk and strikeout rates were slightly worse, but within the bounds of fluctuation. In total, 2007 was a typical Andruw Jones season less 15 homers, five singles, and some intentional walks. His fly-ball rate was unchanged, it's just that the balls didn't go as far. Given Jones' age and the stability of so many elements to his performance, I'm certain that he's going to bounce back to his established level, which in a neutral park would look like .265/.330/.500, with plus defense in center. He's the player people suddenly think Torii Hunter is. [Ed. note: Nate Silver adds that a PECOTA for Jones as a Dodger yields up .258/.345/.488 with 29 home runs and a 28.5 VORP. Tasty.]

    I'm stunned by the length of the deal. Scott Boras was quoted as saying he didn't want Jones to have to play on a one-year deal, given that he'd just come off that type of season. A two-year deal, however, seems like the worst of both worlds: you're not getting the maximum aggregate amount of money, nor are you hitting the market as quickly as possible, as young as possible, after bouncing back. There's enough difference between ages 32 and 33 that I would think Boras would have wanted to have Jones be a free agent again next year. To his credit, Boras appears to have taken more into account than just dollars. Let's see who notices.

    One year or two, this is a fantastic deal for the Dodgers, who get back-end-of-peak years from a Hall of Fame player without committing to his decline phase. Jones will bounce back in 2008, and he'll be a seven-win player over the two years of the deal. That's an enormous addition for a team that has been shooting itself in the foot for two long. What it means for Ethier or Matt Kemp is something that can be hashed out, but again, the player in the way isn't Jones, it's Pierre, who was a bad signing at the time, and remains so today. The Dodgers have an opportunity to show just how well they understand sunk costs by relegating Pierre to a fourth outfielder's role, to which he'd be reasonably suited. It would also give us a chance to test the whole "character" framework, to see if the fourth-best outfielder on the roster is able to accept that he, in fact, is that, and sublimate his desire to play more for the good of the team. That's leadership, right?

    I love this contract. It will be far and away the smartest thing any team does this winter, and it pushes the Dodgers up a little bit closer to the Diamondbacks in the 2008 NL West race.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iron Duke View Post
    Agreed, the guy's only put up two solid years in his seven year career. I appreciate the grit, but I don't understand the love for Rowand.
    It's because of that. Grit, heart, and all that nonsense. I'm sure Rowand is great in the clubhouse but he's becoming the new Darin Estad, where a very average players gets extra credit for having heart. He's better than Erstad, but the concept applies.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by ASUcruz View Post
    It's because of that. Grit, heart, and all that nonsense. I'm sure Rowand is great in the clubhouse but he's becoming the new Darin Estad, where a very average players gets extra credit for having heart. He's better than Erstad, but the concept applies.
    But Erstad was a punter at Nebraska!!!

  8. #68
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    Can't we just buy Pierre out?

  9. #69
    Iron Duke
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    Quote Originally Posted by ASUcruz View Post
    It's because of that. Grit, heart, and all that nonsense. I'm sure Rowand is great in the clubhouse but he's becoming the new Darin Estad, where a very average players gets extra credit for having heart. He's better than Erstad, but the concept applies.
    When all your other pieces are in place, those types of guys are the ones that help push you over the hump (i.e. Eckstein, etc...). However, those guys will never be a cornerstone to build around.

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iron Duke View Post
    When all your other pieces are in place, those types of guys are the ones that help push you over the hump (i.e. Eckstein, etc...). However, those guys will never be a cornerstone to build around.
    Eckstein? Please.

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