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Thread: Los Angeles Dodgers--Official September Thread

  1. #1161
    Hoya
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    Quote Originally Posted by Italian Seafood
    You cite these formulas like they are gospel because you read some book. A book written by a guy who has still never gotten his team out of the first round of the playoffs and whose assistant was the worst GM we've had in recent memory, which is saying something.
    First off, to clarify, the A's made the ALCS last year. Oh yeah, and the "godfather" of sabermetrics, Bill James, is Theo Epstein's top assistant. I think he has a WS ring, but I'll have to check my gospel.

    EDIT: And I totally missed this the first time... Billy Beane didn't write Moneyball, despite what Joe Morgan says on TV.

    Secondly, sabermetrics is so far beyond a simple book that you haven't read, but it doesn't shock me to see you dropping this nonsense. There is a reason that people who actually know what numbers mean and their relative importance are moving into front offices in the entire league.

    You see, smart people actually run studies on a wealth of data and use critical thinking instead of repeating mindless cliches and talking points over and over. For a guy who decries the use of stats, you sure drop the unimportant ones into arguments all the time.

    Quote Originally Posted by Italian Seafood
    If Pierre doesn't get on base and gets thrown out too much, he wouldn't be scoring 100 runs.
    Firstly, he's on pace to end up just short of 100 runs.

    And no, they aren't mutually exclusive.

    Quote Originally Posted by Italian Seafood
    He plays every day because he's durable and he bats high in the lineup because he's fast.
    Those two reasons I gave are the dominant explanation for why he leads the team in runs. I have no idea where you're going with that sentence, but please stop changing the subject.

    Quote Originally Posted by Italian Seafood
    He can reach on a fielder's choice, steal a base and get home on a single.
    Now we're giving a guy credit for hitting into a fielder's choice and taking Furcal off the basepaths. Wow. Backpedal, backpedal, backpedal.

    Quote Originally Posted by Italian Seafood
    He has the ability to put you ahead and change games by himself, as he did for Florida in the post season in 2003.
    If he was playing like he did for Florida in 2003, none of us would be complaining.

    Again, unsurprisingly selective usage. You can drop the '03 WS for Pierre, but any time Penny comes up it isn't relevant?

    Quote Originally Posted by Italian Seafood
    I would also put him pretty far down the list of people to blame for our season going south.
    As far as our offense goes, is there any regular worse?
    Last edited by Hoya; September 25th, 2007 at 02:22 PM.

  2. #1162
    Now Available In HD Italian Seafood's Avatar




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    Quote Originally Posted by jbruin152 View Post
    You can drop the '03 WS for Pierre, but any time Penny comes up it isn't relevant?
    I liked Penny, I always did. Anyone who beats the Yankees twice in a World Series has an automatic place on my all time favorites list. I just think we gave up too much to get him and at the wrong time, given how Florida likes to sell off their players in the off season. The fact that he's never come through in big games for us and I had to endure Lo Duca and Mota celebrating on our field last October only rubbed salt in it.

    As for the rest of it, we've been around this tree countless times. If you want to chalk up Boston's win as a tally for Moneyball, go ahead. Give me Manny, Ortiz, Pedro, Schilling, etc and I'll take my chances. Give me Hee Seop Choi and I'll pass.

  3. #1163
    Let's Get On With It! TonySCV's Avatar




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    "In a year that has been so improbable, the impossible has happened." - Vin Scully being clairvoyant in 1988.

    The Los Angeles Kings - 2012 Stanley Cup Champions

  4. #1164
    Now Available In HD Italian Seafood's Avatar




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    Quote Originally Posted by jbruin152 View Post
    For a guy who decries the use of stats, you sure drop the unimportant ones into arguments all the time.
    I just caught this. Please explain to me how runs are an unimportant stat. Runs are what determines games, the team with more runs wins. I think you've outsmarted yourself with too many numbers here.

  5. #1165
    1st Scoring Line keyTOarson's Avatar




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    Quote Originally Posted by Italian Seafood View Post
    I just caught this. Please explain to me how runs are an unimportant stat. Runs are what determines games, the team with more runs wins. I think you've outsmarted yourself with too many numbers here.
    I don't think runs are that important of a stat because they also have a lot to do with the players hitting behind you.

    One stat I friggin' hated that Vin used a lot this year was his comparison of Penny's batting average to Penny's ERA...there's no friggin' correlation there whatsoever! Yet he would always use it...that frustrated the hell out of me. A more sensible comparison would have been Penny's batting average vs. opponents batting average against him...but as jbruin says, small sample size (in regards to Penny's batting average). Anyway, I digress....

  6. #1166
    Now Available In HD Italian Seafood's Avatar




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    Quote Originally Posted by keyTOarson View Post
    I don't think runs are that important of a stat because they also have a lot to do with the players hitting behind you.
    Understood there are variables to any stat, but I don't see for the life of me how runs can be considered unimportant. The object of the game is to run around the bases and score runs, so it's common sense that faster guys have a better chance of getting home. It's no coincidence to me that Pierre, Furcal and Martin are 1, 2, and 3 in runs scored and are also the three fastest guys in the lineup. If Kemp played the full season and ever figures out how to run the bases correctly, I'd imagine he would be up there too.

    My only point about the fielder's choice is that there are many ways to get on base, some of which don't count favorably to your OBP or average, etc--again, variables to any stat. But the point being, once Pierre gets on first, however he gets there, he's a threat to score, which is what we're trying to do. Of course erasing Furcal wouldn't be the best thing, but often he erases the 8 or 9 place hitter, sometimes he uses his speed to beat out what would be a DP and it goes as a fielder's choice. That's why you have to look beyond all the formulas sometimes and look at the simple, most basic goal of scoring runs. That's why I've always liked fast players.

    I'm not even saying all the Moneyball stuff is without merit, I just get tired of people who buy into it acting like that's the only way to go and everyone who doesn't think that way is stupid and doesn't get it. We're not going that way anymore, that's over, the guy is gone. So to keep applying that criteria to what we're doing now is only going to frustrate people who still want the Moneyball philosophy with the Dodgers.

  7. #1167
    Hoya
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    Quote Originally Posted by Italian Seafood
    I just caught this. Please explain to me how runs are an unimportant stat. Runs are what determines games, the team with more runs wins. I think you've outsmarted yourself with too many numbers here.
    LOL. Team runs are important. Individual runs, just like RBI, are a counting stat (and therefore, can be misconstrued if not put in context) and are, as keyTOarson mentioned, very much skewed based on your team.

    As mentioned several times, Pierre's run total compared to his teammates is way skewed because he has far more ABs/PAs due to other factors.

    For judging individual value, I much more highly value stats that are more indicative of an individual's performance and factor out the production of others.

    Quote Originally Posted by Italian Seafood
    It's no coincidence to me that Pierre, Furcal and Martin are 1, 2, and 3 in runs scored and are also the three fastest guys in the lineup.
    Sure it is. Pierre, Furcal, and Martin are also top three on this team in at-bats and plate appearances. Of course they are going to score more total runs--they have way more opportunities. This isn't rocket science.

    http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/teams/la...ified=0&sort=1

    Look at the correlation there. It's pretty strong.

    Now of course, speed has its benefits as a supplementary trait, but I'd way rather have a good hitter who's slow than a bad hitter who's fast.

    Quote Originally Posted by Italian Seafood
    That's why you have to look beyond all the formulas sometimes and look at the simple, most basic goal of scoring runs. That's why I've always liked fast players.
    And as mentioned several times before, there are decades and decades worth of data that have been studied to draw correlations to scoring runs... and I've already told you what the statistics that have the strongest correlation to runs scored are. Still waiting for a rebuttal on this one.

    Quote Originally Posted by Italian Seafood
    I'm not even saying all the Moneyball stuff is without merit, I just get tired of people who buy into it acting like that's the only way to go and everyone who doesn't think that way is stupid and doesn't get it.
    No, not everyone. Just ignorant people who've never read the book and yet feel obliged to comment, draw false conclusions about statistics without considering certain very relevant factors, use logical fallacies often, and say ridiculous things like Trevor Hoffman fades under pressure.

    Quote Originally Posted by Italian Seafood
    We're not going that way anymore, that's over, the guy is gone. So to keep applying that criteria to what we're doing now is only going to frustrate people who still want the Moneyball philosophy with the Dodgers.
    Every team in MLB at this point uses statistical analysis. The issue here you can't seem to grasp is that this has been around far longer than a simple book, and has pretty much revolutionized the way a growing percentage of organizations view player valuation.

    All teams now use a hybrid of scouting and statistical analysis--some just lean more heavily in one direction than the other. This is not really news though...

  8. #1168
    Chipping for par lath19's Avatar




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  9. #1169
    Let the kids play ASUcruz's Avatar




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    Some prospect news

    I'm curious about Dodgers draftees Andrew Lambo and Jaime Pedroza. I know they're in the lowest levels of the minors, but it looks like they can hit a bit. Are they prospects or is it too soon to tell?

    Andre Mouchard
    Irvine, Calif.

    Lambo and Pedroza had spectacular pro debuts after signing in June. Lambo, a first baseman/outfielder drafted in the fourth round out of Newbury Park (Calif.) High, hit .343/.440/.519 with five homers and 32 RBIs in 54 games in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League. Pedroza, a shortstop taken in the ninth round out of UC Riverside, batted .360/.413/.569 with eight homers and 40 RBIs in 56 games in the Rookie-advanced Pioneer League.

    Lambo is a legitimate prospect. His ability warranted more than a fourth-round pick, but he got kicked out of the first high school he attended and acted immature during predraft interviews this spring. But he has a sweet lefthanded swing, solid power and good control of the strike zone, which has led to comparisons to James Loney.

    Pedroza is more a guy who bears watching. He's not a long-term shortstop, but he has a chance to become an offensive second baseman. Hitting runs in the family. The Dodgers drafted his older brother Sergio, a Cal State Fullerton outfielder, in the third round in 2005, and he has hit 66 homers in 2 pro seasons. Los Angeles shipped Sergio to the Devil Rays in a trade for Julio Lugo last year.

  10. #1170
    Hoya
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    Hmmm I never knew Lambo transferred from Cleveland to Newbury Park. I can still remember my younger brother K'ing the guy up... granted he was only a freshman/sophomore at the time. Small victories I guess, because he can mash.

    Sergio Pedroza might end up being a guy we regret getting rid of... just ask Claw21. That kid can rake.

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