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Thread: Official Dodgers May Thread...

  1. #211
    Elegant Diehard's Avatar




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    Juan Pierre sucks ass

    We don't face Santana in the upcoming series with the Mets, hopefully we can win at least 2

  2. #212
    1st Scoring Line pb2k's Avatar




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    Furcal, SS

    Pierre, LF

    Kemp, RF

    Kent, 2B

    Martin, C

    Loney, 1B

    Jones, CF

    DeWitt, 3B

    Billingsley, P

  3. #213
    I get around




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    I was hoping to see Jones sit another game or two.

  4. #214
    I'M THIRTY-SEVEN? DanteHicks's Avatar




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    Quote Originally Posted by TBrown33 View Post

    Stolen bases...Pierre gets thrown out about 25% percent of the time. That is about "breaking even" in terms of actually helping your team. Giving away outs: BAD THING.
    Since when is a 75% success rate "breaking even?"

  5. #215
    I'M THIRTY-SEVEN? DanteHicks's Avatar




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    Quote Originally Posted by ASUcruz View Post
    Of course it's not. Only people who have played baseball at a high level are allowed to write and comment on it. The rest of us fantasy geeks don't know what we're talking about. I mean why make judgments on stats when you can get by on good old fashioned gut feeling about a player, whether or not he has dirt on his jersey, and if he's a gamer or not.
    Fantasy geeks only see stats. If stats were all there were to baseball, the computers would play out the season in about 15 minutes and they wouldn't have to go on the field at all.

    Believe me, I'm a bigger stat geek than most baseball fans, but I know there's more to a winning team than the numbers. There's no stat for "number of times firing up the rest of the team and demoralizing the opponent in a close game by taking an extra base he probably shouldn't have even tried to take."

  6. #216
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    Quote Originally Posted by DanteHicks View Post
    Since when is a 75% success rate "breaking even?"
    Cost vs. benefit: A successful steal attempt gets you one base closer to home. An unsuccessful steal attempt gets you one more out and one less runner.

    The break-even rate, from data from years and years of actual baseball, is somewhere around 70-75%. As in, if you're getting caught below that rate, you're actually hurting run production by trying to steal.

    Quote Originally Posted by DanteHicks View Post
    There's no stat for "number of times firing up the rest of the team and demoralizing the opponent in a close game by taking an extra base he probably shouldn't have even tried to take."
    There is one for "number of times he ruined a potential scoring opportunity by taking an unnecessary risk". It's called the CS category.

    Creating red herrings like "Computers don't play baseball games" doesn't change the fact that certain actions in a baseball game are inherently risky and at times counterproductive.

  7. #217
    changing the game TBrown33's Avatar




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    Quote Originally Posted by DanteHicks View Post
    Since when is a 75% success rate "breaking even?"
    Sigh...

    The Numbers Guy : Increasingly in Baseball, Stealing Pays

    "Remarkably, that suggests that even this year, with the highest success rate ever, teams are on the whole hurting themselves by attempting to steal bases, with individual teams above the 75% mark getting a net benefit from the running game. Still, though, if one sees the goal of managing as minimizing mistakes, then the approach to break-even is a promising sign."

    Or, if someone else wants to handle this in greater detail (I'm sure there are several posters right now chomping at the bit over this little gem), go for it. I frankly am getting tired of explaining this ****.

  8. #218
    changing the game TBrown33's Avatar




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    Also, to quell any new dumb ****, I don't play fantasy baseball.

    I did play real baseball for a long ass time, though.

  9. #219
    Genghis John
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    Quote Originally Posted by pb2k View Post
    Furcal, SS

    Pierre, LF

    Kemp, RF

    Kent, 2B

    Martin, C

    Loney, 1B

    Jones, CF

    DeWitt, 3B

    Billingsley, P
    Why have they been sitting Ethier? Is he hurt?

  10. #220
    I'M THIRTY-SEVEN? DanteHicks's Avatar




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    Quote Originally Posted by TBrown33 View Post
    Sigh...

    The Numbers Guy : Increasingly in Baseball, Stealing Pays

    "Remarkably, that suggests that even this year, with the highest success rate ever, teams are on the whole hurting themselves by attempting to steal bases, with individual teams above the 75% mark getting a net benefit from the running game. Still, though, if one sees the goal of managing as minimizing mistakes, then the approach to break-even is a promising sign."

    Or, if someone else wants to handle this in greater detail (I'm sure there are several posters right now chomping at the bit over this little gem), go for it. I frankly am getting tired of explaining this ****.
    Thanks, I looked at the article. Last I read it was 2/3, now they're saying 3/4 (which btw over his career, Pierre is still doing for those who really like him - so far in a very small sample this year he's at 90%.). The comments were also interesting should you care to check them out.

    It's still a simplistic, albeit interesting, breakdown of a situation that has a lot more nuance than this analysis covers. That's why I like watching games and not just reading box scores.

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