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Thread: 2019 Entry Level Draft Thread

  1. #391
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    Quote Originally Posted by santiclaws View Post
    Yanetti breaks down the top choices.

    https://theathletic.com/1028706/2019...picks-at-no-5/

    They're really high on Cozens and Dach.

    Cozens:



    Dach:
    Dach would be the most disappointing choice for me at five among the most reasonable possibilities. I would rather have Zegras, Cozens, even Boldy if Turcotte and BB are both gone. Very good skill, but I see no fire in the kid and skating is very average.

  2. #392
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    OK, getting hyped for the draft and I thought i would throw together some data to examine the "consensus" player rankings and the variability around their average position.

    To do so, I downloaded all the public rankings of the 1st round (by all analysts posted on mynhl.com) since May 1 (I wanted ranks that were *fairly* recent). This was 13 sets of rankings. I then estimated the median rankings for each player and the 25th and 75th percentile of their ranks (the ends of the box portions of the plots). This tells us the range in which 50% of analysts placed them. Outliers are indicated by the whiskers in the plots and extreme outliers by the dots. These ranges provide a sense of the variability around players and therefore a sense of the likelihood each player listed as a first round pick might be available at the Kings draft positions (indicated by the solid red lines). Theoretically, if we think of these rankings as representative of those of NHL scouts then we might expect a draft order that looks similar.

    Some notes/caveats:
    1. Of course the actual draft will diverge for numerous reasons (e.g., drafting for need; NHL teams orders are more likely independent than these public lists; some rankings are aggregates themselves which reduces their probability of including outliers).
    2. Not all players were included on all lists. For example, Spencer Knight was included on only 7 lists, but those who included him rated him highly. In part this is due to the fact that some analysts rank goalies separately (e.g., Black Book). It is also because some see him as a second (or later) round pick.
    3. The further one goes down this list the fewer lists a player was included on, and therefore the greater variability there is likely to be in their estimate. Players like Maxim Cajovic and Ronnie Attard were included among the top 31 picks by only one analyst.
    4. These graphs understate the variability of players in roughly the bottom 2/3 of the graph. This is because players who were not rated as meriting a top pick were omitted. If this list included rankings from lower rounds these picks woudl have boxes and whiskers that extended further right, in some cases significantly further right.


    Ok, so here are two immediate observations:
    1. There is no disagreement about the top 2 players in the draft. Hughes and Kakko were both listed by every analyst at the number 1 and 2 spots respectively. (For that reason, there is no "box" around their estimates).
    2. There is substantial variability around the rankings at both of the Kings picks (indicated by the solid vertical lines). In particular, quite a few highly rated players seem to have a decent probability of being available when the Kings pick at 22. OTOH: It looks like there is only about a 25% chance that either Bowen or Turcotte are available at #5 (they are the only 2 players besides Hughes and Kakko whose midpoint is pick 4 or below).
    Attached Files Attached Files

  3. #393
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    Troy,

    Great work! I think most of us are getting amped for the draft. I'm hoping we figure out a way to get another first round pick. Having #5 is really a bummer - most of us want to get one of Byram/Turcotte but I think the reality is that we end up with Dach or Cozens. I wouldn't be upset if we took Caufield. The biggest knock on him is the fact that he's more 1-dimensional, but we don't know yet how that translates to NHL. More of a risk. Also, do you see that type of play in the NHL playoffs? Teams are still likely to take the bigger guys if the skating is there.

    I am just praying that all of us Kings fans are happy with the draft and the ultimate outcome.

  4. #394
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bmrboy View Post
    Troy,

    Great work! I think most of us are getting amped for the draft. I'm hoping we figure out a way to get another first round pick. Having #5 is really a bummer - most of us want to get one of Byram/Turcotte but I think the reality is that we end up with Dach or Cozens. I wouldn't be upset if we took Caufield. The biggest knock on him is the fact that he's more 1-dimensional, but we don't know yet how that translates to NHL. More of a risk. Also, do you see that type of play in the NHL playoffs? Teams are still likely to take the bigger guys if the skating is there.

    I am just praying that all of us Kings fans are happy with the draft and the ultimate outcome.
    You mean other than the extreme bitterness I have for the hosing the Kings took in the ****ing draft lottery? I am old now, and find myself getting grumpier by the year, but this one is really like a flaming hemorrhoid that won't heal.

  5. #395
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    Asking for a friend: If the Kings draft Caufield* how many J.D. Salinger references can I make before someone challenges me to a fight in the parking lot? 10? 20? Unlimited? What if I donate all of my karma to someone in need as a gesture of good faith for said free pass? *smile* I (kind of) promise they?ll be deep cuts only "Now that he's out in Hollywood, D. B. is being a prostitute? -too obvious.







    ?People are always ruining things for you.?
    ― J.D. Salinger, The Catcher in the Rye

    * I know I know Caulfield is different than Caufield, but it's summer.

  6. #396
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bmrboy View Post

    I am just praying that all of us Kings fans are happy with the draft and the ultimate outcome.
    Oh, you sweet summer child.

  7. #397
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    Quote Originally Posted by santiclaws View Post
    Oh, you sweet summer child.
    As long as they keep the pick and don't get cute with it, the Kings are going to do okay. Maybe we second guess it later, but the new kid is going to be their top prospect, and on a team with just one blue chipper in JAD (and an asterisk blue chip in Vilardi), the talent will be most welcome.

  8. #398
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    Quote Originally Posted by What party? View Post
    Asking for a friend: If the Kings draft Caufield* how many J.D. Salinger references can I make before someone challenges me to a fight in the parking lot? 10? 20? Unlimited? What if I donate all of my karma to someone in need as a gesture of good faith for said free pass? *smile* I (kind of) promise they?ll be deep cuts only "Now that he's out in Hollywood, D. B. is being a prostitute? -too obvious.







    ?People are always ruining things for you.?
    ― J.D. Salinger, The Catcher in the Rye

    * I know I know Caulfield is different than Caufield, but it's summer.
    If they draft Caufield, your J.D. Salinger references may be necessary comic relief. This team already has too many "hang around 10 feet out from the goal, and take one step backward into an open space at just the right moment to receive a pass that isn't coming" players. They should probably address that pass that isn't coming.

    To misquote ol' J.D., I'm extremely literate, but I don't read at all.

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    I don't trust Blake and Luc to get this pick right. Blake has never shown any real loyalty to this organization, and Luc seems easily led.

    That... and there probably won't be an obvious pick at #5. Everything points to them overthinking it and taking the next Aki Berg / Lauri Tukonnen.

  10. #400
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    Quote Originally Posted by Goon Squad View Post
    If they draft Caufield, your J.D. Salinger references may be necessary comic relief. This team already has too many "hang around 10 feet out from the goal, and take one step backward into an open space at just the right moment to receive a pass that isn't coming" players. They should probably address that pass that isn't coming.

    To misquote ol' J.D., I'm extremely literate, but I don't read at all.
    Ha! ?Phonies?, amirite?



    My misquote: ?This is a slapshot shooting hat. I shoot slapshots with this hat.?

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