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Thread: Elliotte Friedman: Chychrun May Be Available

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    Quote Originally Posted by santiclaws View Post
    Beautiful feed by Fagemo and Villardi with a nice pull and drag

    https://streamable.com/b0un9i
    #79 will have fun in the film session....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Helvetica View Post
    Getting hung up on his shooting%/less than ideal shot angles i think misses the forrest for the trees.
    This is spot on. One of (if not THE) main thing he brings in value is that he might shoot any time any place. That makes the goalie wonder what to do. It also creates rebounds, which (according to some of the new analytics) might be the primary predictor of goals against for goalies. So shooting in and of itself has big value. And a low shooting % isn't bad.

    I'm ecstatic with Arvidsson.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Helvetica View Post
    I think the grades take more into account than just, "how well is this guy playing". He's making 4.3mil, but contributing like a 7.6mil player. And we got him, as a top six forward, for a 2nd and 3rd round pic? That's fantastic value. So i think the "A" grade reflects more about his overall value, and the move to get him, than it does simply ranking him as a player. I do not disagree with the A rating at all. You can live with his volume shooting because he's bringing offensive production, good possession, and solid D. Not a lot of guys have that combination.

    Getting hung up on his shooting%/less than ideal shot angles i think misses the forrest for the trees.
    I was looking at the full season, not "how well is this guy playing". Happy to hear your opposing view, and i hope you provide details, as he is not contributing like a 7.6 mil player. Case in point - here are *real* salaries of players he is not even close to touching:

    DeBrincat, Alex $6.4M
    Marchessault, Jonathan $5M
    Scheifele, Mark $6.125M
    Dubois, Pierre-Luc $5M
    Boeser, Brock $5.875M
    Guentzel, Jake $6M
    Bennett, Sam $4.425M
    Reinhart, Sam $6.5M
    Huberdeau, Jonathan $5.9M
    Gaudreau, Johnny $6.75M
    Tkachuk, Matthew $7M
    Bergeron, Patrice $6.875M
    Pastrnak, David $6.67M
    Marchand, Brad $6.125M
    Zibanejad, Mika $5.35M
    Kreider, Chris $6.5M
    Larkin, Dylan $6.1M
    Bertuzzi, Tyler $4.75M


    You say poor shot selection is "missing the Forrest for the trees" but that is hardly the case. There is a reason why Arvidsson would not be anything more than a 3rd liner on a playoff contender, and that starts with poor shot selection. Poor shots break the flow of the offense, lead to quick possession changes, lead to missed scoring opportunities which become less and less frequent against top teams, and build opposing goalie confidence. I get you are a fan of his game, but I'd like to see you make a post a list of his strengths and weaknesses and then tell me if he still rates as an "A".

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    Quote Originally Posted by jt View Post
    This is spot on. One of (if not THE) main thing he brings in value is that he might shoot any time any place. That makes the goalie wonder what to do. It also creates rebounds, which (according to some of the new analytics) might be the primary predictor of goals against for goalies. So shooting in and of itself has big value. And a low shooting % isn't bad.

    I'm ecstatic with Arvidsson.
    100% incorrect. Shots need to be meaningful and lead to goals - each shot Arvidsson takes takes an opportunity away from another player. Would you really say you'd be ok with him shooting this volume, while maintaining a mediocre 7% shooting percentage, at the expense of a player like Ovechkin getting a shot on goal? We need our scorers getting the shots. Right now that would be a player like Kempe.

    Arvidsson is fine for the team now that is developing shooters, but once they are developed what role will Arvidsson hold? Likely a 3rd line forward.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DryKing View Post
    100% incorrect. Shots need to be meaningful and lead to goals - each shot Arvidsson takes takes an opportunity away from another player. Would you really say you'd be ok with him shooting this volume, while maintaining a mediocre 7% shooting percentage, at the expense of a player like Ovechkin getting a shot on goal? We need our scorers getting the shots. Right now that would be a player like Kempe.

    Arvidsson is fine for the team now that is developing shooters, but once they are developed what role will Arvidsson hold? Likely a 3rd line forward.
    One of the things that's driven me absolutely crazy for every one of my 30 years playing goalie is watching my teammates (and happily opponents) pass up shots for "a better shot" which is usually either passing to a teammate who ends up with a crappy shot or waiting so long they skate themselves out of a mediocre shot for a chance at a better one that never happens is huge. The number of times mediocre shots turn into good scoring chances, according to the new goalie analytics, is comparatively huge.

    I can't even begin to describe how much I would rather they take a shot from a mediocre scoring position than wait for the great chance. I've gotten mad at teammates maybe 20 times in my career and 18 of them have probably been about that.
    Last edited by jt; January 28th, 2022 at 05:53 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jt View Post
    One of the things that's driven me absolutely crazy for every one of my 30 years playing goalie is watching my teammates (and happily opponents) pass up shots for "a better shot" which is usually either passing to a teammate who ends up with a crappy shot or waiting so long they skate themselves out of a mediocre shot for a chance at a better one that never happens is huge. The number of times mediocre shots turn into good scoring chances, according to the new goalie analytics, is comparatively huge.

    I can't even begin to describe how much I would rather they take a shot from a mediocre scoring position than wait for the great chance. I've gotten mad at teammates maybe 20 times in my career and 18 of them have probably been about that.
    Ha yeah it's like the Kings passing the puck around for 1:30 on the PP - I'm sure most of us are screaming "shoot!" It's even more devastating though when finally someone shoots and it's straight into the glove or even worse, misses the net completely and goes out bounds or leads to a fast break in the other direction.

    You totally have a valid point, the Kings problem has been passing too much and shooting too little. That helps to cover up Arvidsson's sizeable shortcoming, but the Kings are quickly evolving and he will need to too in order to keep a place on the roster. Teams will have a very hard time being a contender when their forward with the top number of shots on the team is shooting 7%. If you look across the league, the majority of forward with the most shots on their team have a shooting % of anywhere from 12-20%.

    Also sorry if my previous post came off a bit rude, I didn't mean it that way.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DryKing View Post
    Ha yeah it's like the Kings passing the puck around for 1:30 on the PP - I'm sure most of us are screaming "shoot!" It's even more devastating though when finally someone shoots and it's straight into the glove or even worse, misses the net completely and goes out bounds or leads to a fast break in the other direction.[/qoute]


    Yup! And it's no unique to the Kings. All teams struggle with that...at every level...even the drunk beer leagues.

    You totally have a valid point, the Kings problem has been passing too much and shooting too little. That helps to cover up Arvidsson's sizeable shortcoming, but the Kings are quickly evolving and he will need to too in order to keep a place on the roster. Teams will have a very hard time being a contender when their forward with the top number of shots on the team is shooting 7%. If you look across the league, the majority of forward with the most shots on their team have a shooting % of anywhere from 12-20%.
    Agreed. And maybe he, Danault, and Iafallo eventually become 3rd liners (but in the cap era I doubt it).

    Also sorry if my previous post came off a bit rude, I didn't mean it that way.
    Thanks but meh...if you can't handle that WFT are you doing here?

  8. #308
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    Shooting percentage is a good segue to concerns I have with Chychrun now that I’ve looked closer at his stats. His shot percentage, like several other areas, are why I’ve really cooled on giving up Clarke for him. And if it’s true that Turcotte is the Kings’ centerpiece in their deal then Clarke’s not in it and I’m good with that.

    Chyrchrun’s numbers:

    Season
    ▲ GP G A PTS +/- PIM S% BLK HIT TK GV
    16-17 68 7 13 20 -14 47 8.1 99 109 12 45
    17-18 50 4 10 14 2 16 3.9 72 74 19 27
    18-19 53 5 15 20 -12 28 4.3 77 74 20 38
    19-20 63 12 14 26 4 38 8.1 95 75 27 52
    20-21 56 18 23 41 -6 42 10.2 89 59 20 36
    21-22 30 2 6 8 -31 30 2.2 39 35 10 22

    His average ppg is .40. Not bad but best dmen on other teams have higher averages. Some patterns:

    He’s missed his share of games, including this season.
    His points are good but not great. I’ll get to last year’s totals in a moment.
    PIMs are a higher than I’d like.
    Including this year so far, three seasons shooting between 2-4.5 percent. That’s awful.
    Hits and blocks are good. I like those columns.
    More giveaways than takeaways every year. Not what we need at all if that were to continue for him.

    As for his breakout season last year, not the time to have a career best with a small sample size of teams played. Impressive, but quality of opponents matter. His point spread:

    25 of his 41 points came against the CA teams - legit bad teams.
    10 against Vegas, Minn, and Col - very good teams.
    6 against StL. They deserve their own category for their off year last season. True mediocrity.

    One of the main arguments back when Eichel was on the block was, “you give up Byfield because Eichel is who you hope he becomes. Potential against proven.”

    If you switched Clarke’s name with Chychrun’s and said this is how his first 6 seasons will look, would you be happy? Do you want Clarke to have that kind of a career or are you expecting more from the kid who’s currently having the best OHL season for a scoring defenseman since Dougie Hamilton?

    I believe if Blake offered Clarke, Turcotte, and a 1st this deal is done today. If he doesn’t offer that then so be it. I’d prefer to see Bjornfot, Turcotte, a 1st, and one of Spence/Grans/or Durzi. The last column provides a scoring D to offset Toby. Durzi would hurt a lot this year but if that’s the price to keep Clarke then great. This deal may not be enough and AZ may only trade if they get a very high-grade prospect back. If it’s not enough, again so be it.

    EDIT: stat formatting sucks - sorry. Link to save your eyes: https://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...chychja01.html
    Last edited by Clif; January 29th, 2022 at 08:52 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DryKing View Post
    he is not contributing like a 7.6 mil player.


    You say poor shot selection is "missing the Forrest for the trees" but that is hardly the case. There is a reason why Arvidsson would not be anything more than a 3rd liner on a playoff contender, and that starts with poor shot selection. Poor shots break the flow of the offense, lead to quick possession changes, lead to missed scoring opportunities which become less and less frequent against top teams, and build opposing goalie confidence. I get you are a fan of his game, but I'd like to see you make a post a list of his strengths and weaknesses and then tell me if he still rates as an "A".
    The link i posted listed his contributions as matching up with a 7mil contract, so that's the author of that link making the claim, and using stats to back it up. I think ultimately he's looking at GSVA. And again... if all you're focused on is shot selection, i think you're missing the big picture, because he's contributing in many other ways (again, look at the stats listed for an idea of where's he's contributing). I dont have stats on your list of players, but off the cuff id probably wager that some of the guys on your list are also contributing above their contract, or alternatively, are maybe contributing less in areas aside from scoring. I also think that poor shots are less important than you're making them out to be, especially for a team that is as strong on possession as the Kings. They can just as easily lead to rebound opportunities, scrambled defense, and recoveries for a team that does well at recovering pucks. And while it can lead to goalie confidence, it can also lead to offensive confidence for the Kings. Getting in and peppering a team with shots is a good thing, and we've all seen it first hand.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Clif View Post
    Shooting percentage is a good segue to concerns I have with Chychrun now that Iíve looked closer at his stats. His shot percentage, like several other areas, are why Iíve really cooled on giving up Clarke for him. And if itís true that Turcotte is the Kingsí centerpiece in their deal then Clarkeís not in it and Iím good with that.

    Chyrchrunís numbers:

    Season
    ▲ GP G A PTS +/- PIM S% BLK HIT TK GV
    16-17 68 7 13 20 -14 47 8.1 99 109 12 45
    17-18 50 4 10 14 2 16 3.9 72 74 19 27
    18-19 53 5 15 20 -12 28 4.3 77 74 20 38
    19-20 63 12 14 26 4 38 8.1 95 75 27 52
    20-21 56 18 23 41 -6 42 10.2 89 59 20 36
    21-22 30 2 6 8 -31 30 2.2 39 35 10 22

    His average ppg is .40. Not bad but best dmen on other teams have higher averages. Some patterns:

    Heís missed his share of games, including this season.
    His points are good but not great. Iíll get to last yearís totals in a moment.
    PIMs are a higher than Iíd like.
    Including this year so far, three seasons shooting between 2-4.5 percent. Thatís awful.
    Hits and blocks are good. I like those columns.
    More giveaways than takeaways every year. Not what we need at all if that were to continue for him.

    As for his breakout season last year, not the time to have a career best with a small sample size of teams played. Impressive, but quality of opponents matter. His point spread:

    25 of his 41 points came against the CA teams - legit bad teams.
    10 against Vegas, Minn, and Col - very good teams.
    6 against StL. They deserve their own category for their off year last season. True mediocrity.

    One of the main arguments back when Eichel was on the block was, ďyou give up Byfield because Eichel is who you hope he becomes. Potential against proven.Ē

    If you switched Clarkeís name with Chychrunís and said this is how his first 6 seasons will look, would you be happy? Do you want Clarke to have that kind of a career or are you expecting more from the kid whoís currently having the best OHL season for a scoring defenseman since Dougie Hamilton?

    I believe if Blake offered Clarke, Turcotte, and a 1st this deal is done today. If he doesnít offer that then so be it. Iíd prefer to see Bjornfot, Turcotte, a 1st, and one of Spence/Grans/or Durzi. The last column provides a scoring D to offset Toby. Durzi would hurt a lot this year but if thatís the price to keep Clarke then great. This deal may not be enough and AZ may only trade if they get a very high-grade prospect back. If itís not enough, again so be it.

    EDIT: stat formatting sucks - sorry. Link to save your eyes: https://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...chychja01.html
    It's interesting to analyze stats like this. They show he certainly has issues. The thing is that if he didn't he wouldn't be available...OR he'd cost what Karlsson did (and he had his own problems which IMO are partly why the Sharks haven't been great). I don't think you're saying this, but anyone who says no to trading the rumored package for Chychrun needs to have an alternative. They don't have a high end LD in the system, so if it's not Chychrun, then who and what to do? Nothing and just don't have a high end LD?

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