After the first half of the 2023-24 season, it wasn’t uncommon to see posts on social media where people were asking if the offseason acquisition of PL Dubois was worth it for the Kings. After all, Dubois had his fair share of struggles while Gabriel Vilardi, the key player going the other way in that deal, with Winnipeg, found some early success and is currently scoring at a 0.75 Points-Per-Game pace (a career high).
In the first article of this series, we dug into how Dubois was not playing as well as expected — but that was back in February. Now, nearly two months later and with a new coaching staff guiding the way, we’ll re-examine the situation and look at what may have changed.
For the purpose of this discussion, we’ll be analyzing Dubois’ stats from before game 48 (the most recent game when we last reviewed his play) and from game 49 to current. Of course, this isn’t exactly the first and second half of the season, so why are we splitting the games up like this? Remember, between these two periods came an All-Star break and a bye-week for the Kings, giving Dubois time to make necessary adjustments.
Over that break was also the now infamous Lilo & Stitch trip to Hawaii.
Although part of that interview delved into an important aspect of all of this that isn’t talked about enough — life away from the rink — it also touched on the biggest Kings news of the season thus far, a change behind the bench.
Thus, splitting the games into 1-48 and 49-current may provide a more meaningful breakdown of Dubois’ change in play, as it divides the season from coach Todd McLellan to Jim Hiller.
Basic Scoring
In his first 48 games, Dubois was only averaging 1.6 Points-Per 60. Since then, he is averaging 2.16, a staggering 35% increase. What’s really interesting here is that his goals-per-60 has remained nearly the same (0.72), while his assists-per-60 has increased from 0.97 to 1.44.
Naturally, an increase in both goals and assists would be great, yet a 35% increase in production is nothing to complain about either. Generally speaking, Dubois has done a much better job making plays over the past 45+ days, and the numbers reflect this. Typically, NHL centers have more points coming from assists than goals; so this type of data tracks with other players. Take Anže Kopitar as an example, he has 418 career goals and 788 assists.
Advanced Stats
We talked about Dubois scoring far less goals than expected in our first article. According to NaturalStatTrick, Dubois had about 12 xG after 48 games, while only actually scoring seven. Since then, he has about 5.6 xG and has scored five. Whether this change is due to better luck, a better feel for the puck, or something else, it is welcomed.
When it comes to shot attempts, or Corsi (read more about Corsi here), Dubois is actually taking about 2.5 less shot attempts per 60 in recent games (14.5 versus 12). Knowing this, maybe his increase is production is due to being more selective with the shots he does take. Instead of spraying the goalie with shots, these numbers suggest he could be taking his time to look for the opportunity to pull the trigger.
Overall Season Stats
Now let’s take a look at some of Dubois’ total season stats.
As we’ve discussed before, shot location and distance from the net is incredibly important when it comes to scoring goals. And Dubois is doing a great job shooting from close to the net. His average shot distance this season is 24 feet.
Compare that to Hart frontrunner Auston Matthews – he shoots from an average of 26 ft from the net. This suggests that Dubois is finding success shooting from close to the net this season. None of this is to imply that Dubois is, or should be, playing at the same level as Matthews, but rather it’s a comparison of how and where some of the game’s best players utilize space on the ice.
However, not all shots will go in, no matter how close they are to the net. Another measurement worth looking into is rebounds generated. This season, 11.8% of Dubois’ shots generate rebounds. Brayden Point, an elite NHL center, only generates rebounds on 9.5% of his shots. Generating rebounds is meaningful because it means that your shots that don’t go in aren’t just getting frozen by the goalie, they are still in play — thus, potentially allowing for a second opportunity.
Rebounds make up over 15% of goals scored in the NHL, so being able to generate these high danger chances is very important. Shots after a rebound are far more dangerous than shots that are not. So, while a 2% difference may seem insignificant, it can be the difference between a frozen puck and a goal.
Hiller has recently made note that Dubois’ physical play has also been an encouraging sign, as the coach sees this as a sign his player has been moving his feet better / more often. Hits data supports this theory, as well. Dubois has gone from 2.8 hits/60 in the first 48 games to 7.2 since the extended break in February.
While the first half of the season had some questioning if signing the 25-year old forward to an eight-year contract was a smart move or not, Dubois has started to prove himself in the second half of the season. Better yet, his underlying numbers show that he has what it takes to be an impactful center.
Consistency will be the key long-term. What separates great players from average players are the one who consistently show up and deliver on a nightly basis, regardless of all other factors.
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