As the Stanley Cup Playoffs progress, there is still some much-needed planning for one of our favorite times of the year: the (now decentralized) NHL Entry Draft. Leading up to the main event each year, we put forth articles of prospects and their likeliness to be on the Kings radar. This time, we’re zooming out to look at things a bit differently.
It’s important to clarify that not every detail discussed throughout this article is specific to Los Angeles. Every team, including the Kings, is extremely secretive about their process.
How do you know who the Kings will pick?
In short: we don’t.
There are seven rounds and 32 picks per round, which leaves a list of about 224 players who will be selected (there are exceptions to this, such as comp picks or penalties to organizations for misconduct). This also excludes the hundreds of other players who do not get drafted yet still make their way into NHL organizations. Thus, narrowing down a list of over 500 potential options down to a half-dozen is beyond impossible.
Teams understandably do not share their draft lists; someone else may be clued in and pick that person first or leverage the interest to demand a higher price for a trade. However, what we do is we watch players, get reads on them, and based on a variety of factors, including comparing notes with various scouts and other hockey people, we try to narrow in on which prospects might be strong candidates to make it on LA’s aforementioned draft list.
You said draft list multiple times; what is that?
Player’s names don’t get selected at random when it’s time to pick. Much like independent scouting services who rank players, every team — in some form or another — has a list of players they are interested in drafting, and where they plan to take them. Even though the Draft is 224-ish players deep, usually lists will only go to about 70 or 80. In the context of Los Angeles, Mark Yannetti has talked about “tiers.” We can assume there are players they are looking at in various pick ranges, although as mentioned, their exact process is secret.
Circling back to when we feature articles on potential Kings picks, we take this into account: is the player generally slotted in a range the Kings are picking in or could move to? If yes, does this prospect have features that could possibly interest Los Angeles? Our approach is very much an inexact science.
For a couple examples: there’s no point focusing on Matthew Schaefer, who’s the popular choice for first overall. Los Angeles won’t trade up that high. Similarly, as they very rarely draft Russian players (only twice were Russian players selected during Rob Blake’s tenure as General Manager), we tend to veer away from players who are in that geographical location.
How do lists get made?
Let’s start with another question first: When do these players get scouted? With most media outlets, lists and rankings get made over the course of the current draft year. In general, the public doesn’t get hyped over future drafts, and that’s because a lot can happen over time, even one season. There was once a point when one of LA’s seventh round picks, Nick Ebert, was slated to go top-5 in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft. His D-1 year (the year before his draft year) showed him putting up great numbers as a 16-17 year-old. He ended up being the actual last pick.
Teams go back much further, though. They scout players as 15, 16, and 17-year-olds, watching them grow throughout the years. Of course, recency plays a big part; the key takeaway is that nobody is a stranger to the draft class once the season starts.
With that in mind, there are also variables that need to be taken into account. Let’s compare some different ways in which teams look at players. Note, these glimpses are strictly in a vacuum, yet when evaluating a player, it’s evaluated as an aggregation.
Physique
Physical traits are easily the most visible and available. A player’s height and weight are available on any team site. Before the big event, the NHL has a Draft Combine that allows players to showcase what they can accomplish physically through standard tests while also interviewing with prospective teams.
Generally speaking, a bigger player is “safer”. Even if they don’t have the talent to be a regular NHLer, someone with size can usually physically hold their own over time.
Physical performance is a mixed bag. Former Kings GM Dean Lombardi remarked how Tyler Toffoli couldn’t even do a pull-up when he was drafted. Strength and fitness goes a long way to see how quickly a player may be NHL ready but sometimes having a player who can perform so well even when out of shape demonstrates upside.
Position
Positions are usually pretty static. A goaltender won’t move to be a defender. However, there are a few exceptions of someone switching between forwards and defense. Players like Brent Burns and Dustin Byfuglien actually played both forward and defender in the NHL. After being drafted, prospects will get opportunities to switch up, like when Akil Thomas played defense for a couple games in juniors, or when Brian Boyle played some time on defense for Boston College.
More commonly, though, players will stay either as forward or defense, but their side may differ. A defenseman or forward who shoots right may not always play on the right side. For offensive reasons, they may be better suited in their off-wing for a better shooting angle (like former Kings player Arthur Kaliyev, who shoots left but was mostly played at right wing).
Statistics
Obviously, better quantifiable numbers provide greater confidence. While there are raw statistics available for public access (goals, assists, points, etc), teams may use additional contexts or analytics to evaluate potential players.
League
Where a player plays provides a lot of context to their overall performance. There are countless leagues around the world. These are the most popular leagues of various nations from which teams scout:
Canada: OHL, WHL, QMJHL, BCHL, AJHL, OPJHL
United States: NCAA, USHL, High School
Russia: KHL, VHL, MHL
Sweden: SHL, Allsvenskan, J20 Nationell
Finland: Liiga, Mestis, U20 SM-sarja
All leagues have players of varying ages and skills. For example, the SHL is the highest level of hockey in Sweden. If someone only puts up three points as a 17-year-old when playing against men, teams have to compare that versus someone else who puts up 60 points against people aged 16-20 in the OHL.
Location
The location differs slightly from the league. Location looks into cultural contexts. As mentioned before, Los Angeles hasn’t selected many players from Russia. This isn’t because of an anti-Russian bias (after all, the current roster features a pair in Vladislav Gavrikov and Andrei Kuzmenko). But younger Russian players, even if they migrate to another league with the hope of making the NHL, may gravitate back home if they don’t get a guaranteed spot in the big league.
The scenario isn’t exclusive to just one nationality. Others may return home if the likelihood of NHL opportunities is reduced. For example, Johan Sodergran, a 2018 sixth-round pick by LA, returned to Europe after first trying his hand in the AHL. So, if a team sees someone as a depth player but at the very least a very good AHLer, their home country may factor in.
Another factor that is still in play regarding location is related to COVID. Even though the worst has been behind the world for years, Sweden was the first nation to mitigate it. Consequently, their players have had more coaching and practice to help them develop for years prior to their draft.
Finally, during Episode 230 of Kings of the Podcast, Marco Sturm talked about Aatu Jamsen needing to adjust to North America’s style of play and rink size. Scouts and teams need to assess what types of adjustments a prospect will have to make.
Maturity
How mature a player is can’t be quantified. However, suitors looking for the right player may care about their professionalism, coachability, mindfulness, and work ethic. One of the biggest challenges of the NHL Draft in particular is the age range of the players, who are 18-20.
Style of Play
There are countless categories a player may fall under. If the player’s a sniper, does he shoot from the same location and use the same type of shot? Do they have a variety of shots? If it’s an offensive defenseman, does he thrive more in moving the puck or carrying it? Does he lead the rush or join in? Is the goaltender a butterfly goalie or does he like to scramble?
Teams have styles of play, and ideally, they draft prospects who fit into their team’s paradigm. If a team thrives on board work and physical play, they may have issues with integrating a lazy player who shies from physical contact. Of course, they may feel the player can develop those characteristics later on, but that’s when it becomes a high-risk, high-reward scenario.
International Showing
There are multiple international tournaments that go on throughout the year. The three major ones are:
Hlinka Gretzky – At the start of the season (in August), players who are under 18 years old as of December 31.
U-20 WJC – Occurs in the middle of the season (it starts on Boxing Day, December 26, and ends in early January). Composed of all prospects, drafted or undrafted, who are 19 years of age or younger as of December 31.
U-18 WJC – This is late in the season, late April to early May. The participants must be under 18 years old at the start of the tournament.
The performance on the big stage is a bit of a double-edged sword. For example, the U-18 WJC (which just concluded) heavily favors Team USA, as their national team practices throughout the year, with a couple of outside players added in (like 2025 Draft eligible prospect Cullen Potter). Canada, Sweden, and other teams still have playoffs going on, so they may not be able to ice the best team.
This isn’t to say the players on Team USA aren’t good, of course. The circumstances of the tournament just offer a competitive advantage.
I heard this isn’t a good draft class. What does that mean? Is it true?
Sometimes, people talk about the quality of the draft class. There are different meanings people generally refer to. How deep into the draft are you comfortable with drafting NHL players? How top-heavy is it (meaning, is there a superstar you expect to pick, like Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, or Alex Ovechkin)?
Here at Mayor’s Manor, we generally avoid that noise for a few reasons. For one, we don’t watch every prospect. If we get sentiments from various scouts, we may take it under consideration, but even in a “poor” draft class, you are bound to find NHLers. If a team makes the right picks and develops people into quality players, who cares how the rest of the class is represented?
The final — and more important — reason we avoid this dialogue is because we’re talking about people with the dream of becoming NHLers. They have a long road ahead of them to fulfill that dream. And with this dream and the effort they put in, we believe the up-and-comers deserve respect. Writing off a draft class as “weak” ignores the friends, family, coaches, and support staff who have spent their lives helping these kids hone their craft.
What we will take into account when talking about class quality is the viability to move up and down in a draft. For example, let’s say the Kings pick 24 in the Draft. But there’s a tier of players between 20 and 40 who are deemed roughly the same. It’s worth exploring the possibility of the Kings trying to trade down to 30 and picking up extra picks.
Cool, so now what?
We have the following deadlines related to the Draft:
Draft Combine – June 1-7. Teams will be able to conduct interviews with players they are interested in, as well as the physical fitness testing.
Last Day of Playoffs – June 23. The way teams finish in the playoffs determines draft order for the rest of the league.
First round of the Draft – June 27.
Rest of the Draft – June 28.
In the meantime, the team here at Mayor’s Manor will be providing Draft coverage up to and beyond Draft Day. Look for upcoming articles about prospects we think could be on the Kings’ radar as well as coverage of the picks.
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