Doms Second half predictions

[jammer06]

Dom put out his predictions for the second half of the season and you can find it here:

By the numbers: Projecting teams? performances in the second half of the NHL season

Basically he's predicting the Kings to be as advertised and lead the charge to the last playoff spot in the Pacific even though they have far more road games than home to finish out the season based on the ease of schedule going from 2nd hardest to 4th easiest....

1st Half Schedule Strength: 0.517 (2nd)

Home/Away: 25/18

2nd Half Schedule Strength: 0.487 (28th)

Home/Away: 16/23

I'm not going to post his tidbits but the short version is he really loves Danault and Arvidsson combined with the play of Quick and Doughty to justify where the team is at.

As it's been over a year I will post what he said last year at this point (granted in a shortened covid season).

First half schedule strength: 0.512 (25th)

Second half schedule strength: 0.488 (8th)

One of this year?s great surprises was the shocking competence of the Kings, who have hung around the West playoff race despite being one of the league?s poorest possession teams. That usually means to expect regression, but this model loves Cal Petersen in net and that makes their higher goals percentage a bit more sustainable. The playoffs are still a pipe dream, but a slightly above point-per-game pace is encouraging for a team many pegged in the bottom five. They survived a heavy dose of the West?s best early on, but have a softer schedule outlook down the stretch.

If you don't remember how last season ended, well I don't blame you but that narrative did not continue and the Kings underachieved even their lowly original prediction.

Personally I'm of the buyer beware mode simply because this team could go in so many directions. I will say the Lizotte line has been a stabilizing force, Danault's been a stud and I'm thanking our lucky stars Durzi is a gamer since it was terrifying to be relying so much on Edler. For the second half though, getting Q in the lineup and productive seems to be the trade from within move. Cal figuring out his game would be a huge boost, along with Quick keeping on. If they finish this roadie as strong as they've started...well I've seen what happens to this team with extended breaks in the middle of the season and I'll wait until after they get back to it on the 15th of February and those makeup games. I still would like to see some help on the D side and that line that Q centers needs to be a force. If Kopi keeps riding Kempe and AI then I'm good with that for this season. Blake and Luc sold a bill of goods to push for the playoffs and as of right now this ticket might even cash. Not going to root against it.

 

[Helvetica]

I think the 5v5 play, and solid puck possession, has me feeling pretty good about the Kings chances this season. I think the special teams can really only go up from here (fingers crossed). Even marginal boosts to the PP and PK would be a big boost in the standings.

Off topic, but if Lizotte doesnt win the "unsung hero" award from the Kings at the end of the season there is no justice in this world.

 

[jt]

The Oilers need a goalie (who would be an improvement over injured Smith and mediocre Koskinen) they probably won't get, and that may keep them from getting the 93 points predicted.

The Stars will probably trade Klingberg and if it's for prospects and picks, they'll be worse and probably not get the 93 points predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if they end up below 90 even with the team they have.

Time to make a couple moves for a LD like (Chychrun, Chiarot, or even Yandle) and scoring W (like Hertl, Giroux, Boeser, or even Namestnikov - unless Vilardi's move to and success at RW can translate to the NHL) to get those 3 points and give the kids some playoff experience.

 

[santiclaws]

If one of Byfield/Turcotte/Villardi (20 pts in 20 games in the A) can make a meaningful contribution during the second half, it would really help. And if they could get the special teams to the dizzying heights of "mediocre," they'll probably sneak in.

 

[Ice24]

My prediction--Pain

 

[jt]

If one of Byfield/Turcotte/Villardi (20 pts in 20 games in the A) can make a meaningful contribution during the second half, it would really help. And if they could get the special teams to the dizzying heights of "mediocre," they'll probably sneak in.

Yup, or even Kaliyev. His all-around game has improved so much that there's a chance he could have his leash taken off this season and might start scoring. He's on pace for 14 goals, which is great for a 20 yr old rookie, but he's capable of much more.

 

[santiclaws]

Yup, or even Kaliyev. His all-around game has improved so much that there's a chance he could have his leash taken off this season and might start scoring. He's on pace for 14 goals, which is great for a 20 yr old rookie, but he's capable of much more.

I put Kaliyev in the "already contributing" category but yes, he can do more. They need to work on looking for him on the PP all the time so that he can unleash that deadly shot more often. If he pots a few, other teams will be forced to start slanting the PK towards him and that'll open up room for everyone else.

 

[jom]

I still see Chychrun as a long term move so I'm for it. However, the other guys jt listed....forget it...they are a waste of assets, IMO. I don't see the Kings making the playoffs either way....we'll see though.

jom

 

[kingnut]

at least the 2nd half of the season could be meaningful games. i made the prediction with my ticket rep that the kings would make the playoffs before the kings played the blues in the 2nd mtg... early on in the season

 

[Clif]

Nerd alert: I break it down by 5 game installments. Average out to win 3 of every 5.

On New Year’s Day ahead of the Flyers game Kings had 50 games left. Win the equivalent of 30 of them and they’d get to 95 points. In the first set of 5 games they went 4-1. Next set 2-3. Evened out to be on target.

They’re 1-0-1 in the current set. Beat NYI or PHI and lose to the other in OT. Lose to Pitt in regulation. Still on track.

I went from thinking Kings probably wouldn’t make it to being 50/50 on them. Just personally speaking, tracking 5 game increments makes stuff like a 3 game losing streak a little easier. Plus I just like geeking out by breaking the schedule up.

 

[jammer06]

Nerd alert: I break it down by 5 game installments. Average out to win 3 of every 5.

On New Year’s Day ahead of the Flyers game Kings had 50 games left. Win the equivalent of 30 of them and they’d get to 95 points. In the first set of 5 games they went 4-1. Next set 2-3. Evened out to be on target.

They’re 1-0-1 in the current set. Beat one of NYI, PHI or DET and lose to another in OT. Lose to the remaining one and Pitt in regulation. Still on track.

I went from thinking Kings probably wouldn’t make it to being 50/50 on them. Just personally speaking, tracking 5 game increments makes stuff like a 3 game losing streak a little easier. Plus I just like geeking out by breaking the schedule up.

Wasn't Sutter famous for this kind of thinking? I remember it being mentioned in the past, can't remember if it was on Insider or the broadcasts. They'd break the season up into series of games to help the focus. I've no idea if Todd subscribes to that newsletter though.

 

[Clif]

Wasn't Sutter famous for this kind of thinking? I remember it being mentioned in the past, can't remember if it was on Insider or the broadcasts. They'd break the season up into series of games to help the focus. I've no idea if Todd subscribes to that newsletter though.

That’s gotta be where I got it from because it’s not originally my own idea. I thought it might be how coaches look at the season in general but could easily be an OCD Sutterism.

 

[Kurisu]

That’s gotta be where I got it from because it’s not originally my own idea. I thought it might be how coaches look at the season in general but could easily be an OCD Sutterism.

Somebody on the NHL SiriusXM channel was just talking about this yesterday in regards to the good teams in the east (can't remember who it was). He was saying they do coach it this way because you always end up with games, regardless of overall talent, where you meet the wrong team on the wrong day. He said the key to getting back on track was not letting mini-skids turn into mini slumps. Totally makes sense, especially with long road trips or home stands where monotony is a factor.

I think the kings have a better than 50% shot at the playoffs. With the addition of Danault in the top 6, and the emergence of Kempe as a consistent threat up there now too, the difference that is making this team legitimate is the contributions from the bottom 6. That Lemieux / Lizotte line changes games (usually for the better, heh). Even though all the young guys have been on constant rotation, getting goals from the checking lines and the 2nd PP unit makes us a lot harder to play against than when all you had to do was stop Kopi's line to beat us. If Byfield can get some points, and he sure looks poised and confident for a brand new NHL'er, I think we can definitely sustain this success.

I've also been looking for the right thread to mention how fortunate I feel like we were to have had those horrible, tragic Covid seasons arrive right in the middle of our rebuild. How annoying would it be to be like Tampa Bay and have your best seasons, with all your A-Listers peaking right in the middle of those bubble seasons playing only your own division over and over and celebrating in front of empty arenas. Those were perfect seasons to suck and just audition prospects.

I think improvement this season is still possible (even likely) and we sneak into a playoff spot this year.

 

[jt]

I still see Chychrun as a long term move so I'm for it. However, the other guys jt listed....forget it...they are a waste of assets, IMO. I don't see the Kings making the playoffs either way....we'll see though.

jom

I totally disagree. This team CAN make the playoffs and just making the playoffs has value in that it gives the kids experience of playing in meaningful games and shows them how different NHL playoffs are from the regular season or playoffs and tournaments at lower levels. They need this to learn and the Kings need to seem them in the playoffs to see how they respond to pressure - and then what they do in the offseason to get better. They have SO many assets they can afford to sacrifice some to do this.

Even if they can't get Chychrun, get a rental like Yandle if they can just to get in the playoffs...it will pay dividends in the long run.

 

[showmethemony]

I still see Chychrun as a long term move so I'm for it. However, the other guys jt listed....forget it...they are a waste of assets, IMO. I don't see the Kings making the playoffs either way....we'll see though.

jom

Well you're a ball of sunshine.

 

[VCRW]

I just think it's great we are talking playoffs in late January... and no longer about the upcoming draft and tanking for "x".

This team is on a good trajectory. If Athanasiou can stay healthy and be productive, and with Byfield filling the hole at 3C, the Kings become a real 4-line team.

And the team is definitely competitive... even with the Maatta/Roy pairing we love to hate.

 

[Illegal_Stick]

Chycrun is the only deal I want to see. Rental scoring would be a joke. If we need a winger to score we look within the system - to Vilardi especially. It may not work and that is FINE right now. It lets us be a competitive team and shows us what we truly have in him and if it's time to move on. I think this is what they'll do, but I do worry.

 

[Dr. Tran]

I still see Chychrun as a long term move so I'm for it. However, the other guys jt listed....forget it...they are a waste of assets, IMO. I don't see the Kings making the playoffs either way....we'll see though.

jom

Agree about just getting Chychrun but not about the playoffs. The team is playing well & except for a few stinkers have played well throughout the season. We've had 3 lines that have found good chemistry & tonight maybe we've found the 4th in QB, AA, & DB. We've also got Cal finally playing well to match with Quick. Our only question is on defense, which is why I want Chychrun. Unless there are major injuries or a covid outbreak, I like our chances of making the playoffs.

 

[Dr. Tran]

I totally disagree. This team CAN make the playoffs and just making the playoffs has value in that it gives the kids experience of playing in meaningful games and shows them how different NHL playoffs are from the regular season or playoffs and tournaments at lower levels. They need this to learn and the Kings need to seem them in the playoffs to see how they respond to pressure - and then what they do in the offseason to get better. They have SO many assets they can afford to sacrifice some to do this.

Even if they can't get Chychrun, get a rental like Yandle if they can just to get in the playoffs...it will pay dividends in the long run.

I'd say yes only depending on what we give up. I agree we have plenty of assets but I don't think we can just throw them away. They're both UFA's so I wouldn't give up more than a mid round pick for either. And I forgot, is Edler out the entire season or is there a chance he can come back. Because if so he might be the veteran blueliner we need.

 

[Helvetica]

yeah i have no problem with a rental deal provided we dont give up anything significant. There's probably a couple of B prospects that we'll wind up losing anyways if we dont move them. I certainly wouldnt want to lose turcotte to a rental, but im not opposed to looking for a middle 6 guy if it can be done at reasonable cost. I think the team needs management to show commitment to making the playoffs.

With that said, i think some people here are making good arguments for just relying on depth players from Ontario. But that would require teh Kings to step up their special teams and really start pushing for 1st in the division. Probably an unlikely scenario.