Buckle up, shovels are in the ground and the LA Kings offseason work is underway.
Last week, a few prospects signed new contract extensions and now the summer workload is starting to gain momentum. There’s still plenty of roster work to do in the weeks ahead. However, in less than 30 days from now, things will be pretty much wrapped up. So, let’s start getting after it.
By now, most have heard us talk at length about the Kings top three priorities, in this specific order:
1. Sign Byfield to a new contract
2. Find a new starting goaltender
3. Add two other mid-tier roster pieces from outside, via trade or free agency
They line up in that order because the Kings actually have quite a bit of money to spend this summer. Nearly $20M, in fact.
How much money Quinton Byfield ends up getting is the first significant domino in GM Rob Blake’s process over the next 30 days. That deal most likely won’t get announced until early July. Yet, we’re going to look at in in two phases. We’ll dive in with more detail in a subsequent article. Here, we’re just going to plug in a rough estimate and move on because there are a plethora of items to cover below. So, we’ll take more of a ‘team-wide’ look at LA’s cap situation in this article.
Most of the other internal contracts to resolve this summer are Restricted Free Agents (RFAs). Those tend to easier to handle than the Unrestricted variety, as other teams can enter the bidding for those players after July 1.
Even so, there are still five key UFAs, so let’s start there.
Unrestricted Free Agents
Cam Talbot – In short, we’re not expecting Talbot to return to LA. Could he return? Sure, it’s possible. Goaltending wasn’t the team’s biggest problem last year, despite quite a bit of talk and concern about the position during training camp last September. For the soon to be 37-year-old netminder, it was basically a tale of two seasons. He started off looking great, even earning a spot in the 2024 NHL All-Star Game. He also went into that event on a horrific losing streak. Following the team’s elimination by Edmonton in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, Talbot was talking about looking for a two-year deal this summer. Even at one-year, it just doesn’t feel like the Kings will be interesting in going that direction. AHL Rookie Erik Portillo is still a year away and recently signed David Rittich isn’t expected to be the 1A option, so look for the Kings to do something in the crease, either via free agency or trade.
Pheonix Copley — From what we understand, there have quietly been discussions about the possibility of a new deal for the veteran netminder. His story is well known: a journeyman goalie, called up in Dec. 2022, proceed to save the Kings season. Then, this past year, while serving as the 1B behind Talbot, he suffered an ACL injury that shut him down in early January. One advantage to Copley is he has something to prove (2022 wasn’t a fluke) and he’d love to do it with the Kings. He also is familiar with the team and their tendencies, so that gives him a head start over somebody coming in from the outside. There’s one catch here, though, it doesn’t appear to be a Rittich-Copley tandem situation. So, Copley signing with LA would most likely be as a No. 3 option. Meaning, he doesn’t impact the salary cap outlook below because he would be targeted to start the year as a member of AHL Ontario.
Matt Roy – This one is a bit of a head scratcher. On paper, Roy isn’t the guy to retain. A solid defensive player, yes. An effective partner for Vladislav Gavrikov, yes. He also serves as a blocker for playing time that should be going to Jordan Spence and Brandt Clarke. Roy will most likely have several offers with a pay increase over his expiring contract that carried a $3.15M AAV. With a preference to play their right shots on the right side, there doesn’t seem to be room for Roy in LA moving forward. If he somehow is re-signed, look for the team to deal Spence, as we noted several months ago.
Trevor Lewis – He comes as advertised. Lewis is a veteran leader who is also an effective penalty killer and can play all three forward positions. When he originally reunited with the Kings last summer, it was thought to be a one-year deal. There is probably a 60% chance he returns on another one-year, league minimum contract. Where things get a bit tricky, is he’s probably better as a wing at this point and that limits LA’s options a bit because nearly all of the younger forwards they plan to add to their roster for 2024-25 would be better served at wing, as well. It doesn’t have to, but that could ultimately squeeze Lewis out. If he returns, it wouldn’t be to play a full 82 games like he did last season.
Viktor Arvidsson – Jumping right into it, when healthy, he’s a dynamic player when significantly changes the Kings offensive attack. Coming off his second back surgery in just a few years, how comfortable are the Kings (or any team, for that matter) giving him a multi-year contract? As we’re about to highlight in the table below, LA has the cap room to offer him a one-year ‘show me’ type contract. Will that be enough to get something done or will the Kings need to go into the UFA/trade market to replace Arvidsson? We don’t have any early intel to lean into one way over the other. We believe this will extend past July 1. The player will most likely test the market and see what’s out there for him, then the Kings will have to see if they’d like to match it to keep him.
Restricted Free Agents
Beyond Byfield, there are three key players who fall into this category: Carl Grundstrom, Blake Lizotte, and Jordan Spence.
Going in reverse order, Spence should be the easiest one to get done. He is not eligible for arbitration, so the Kings can simply qualify him with a modest increase over last year and move on. If there’s interest to get him signed to a multi-year deal, it would most likely be a two or three-year deal. And, again, at a fairly low dollar amount. Spence is coming off his first full season in the NHL and was largely playing on the third pair. His new contract shouldn’t be a hard one to work out. LA may look to get him locked up for two-years, though, because if he gets bumped to second-pair next season and is an RFA again 12 months from now, that second year could cost them quite a bit more money. This will be an interesting one to watch.
For reasons we’ve covered at-length previously, we’re not expecting Lizotte to return. Cutting to the key issue, they simply can’t afford a 4C who makes about $2M per season. Much respect for all he’s accomplished up to this point; it’s probably time to move on.
Ditto for Grundstrom. However, it’s not quite as clear cut. He’s coming off a deal carrying a $1.3M AAV and he’s arbitration eligible. He brings some physicality to the bottom-6, and they’ll miss that, but at $1.5M for next season, he’s essentially taking the cap space of two guys on league minimum deals. LA needs depth. They need options. In order to have that next season, they can’t be spending so much money on guys like Grundstrom. Now… if he was a fourth line center, that would be a different story.
Other Player and Contract Notes
If the player’s box is in green below, that indicates the contract already in place for next season, including Anze Kopitar’s new $7M contract kicking in.
As we’ve noted several times over the past two months, Akil Thomas, Alex Turcotte, and Brandt Clarke are all expected to be on the Kings roster next season. Thus, they’re plugged in below, as well. Turcotte’s new deal has not been finalized just yet (it’s being worked on). Coming off his Entry Level Contract, don’t expect to see a big change in the AAV. We’ve estimated where we expect him to land below. His box, and all other players that are estimates only, are highlighted blue.
For any UFAs signed or players acquired via trade, we’ve indicated their spot in yellow, along with a corresponding estimate of what that player/position may end up costing.
LA will start next season with over $2.7M in retained money and termination penalties (yes, they’re still paying on the Mike Richards contract). Plus, they were hit with $1.85M in penalties for going over the cap in 2023-24, with $1M of that going to Talbot in the form of a bonus for playing 10 games.
All of this was done to highlight (a) how the Kings lineup could come together for next season, which is schedule to feature a rather healthy 30% change in players from last season, not to mention, a reconfigured alignment among the forwards and (b) how Blake may opt to distribute his nearly $20M in new cap space this summer.
Additional Cap Projection Notes
— Tying everything above together, the Kings would be $465K over the cap. There are several easy ways to become cap compliant, including: carry 13 forwards instead of 14, save on the UFA/trade candidates (yellow boxes), etc.
— There could be endless hours of debate regarding the above line combinations (which are more for illustrative purpose than anything else, as they are every year at this time). We’re hearing Byfield is most likely going back to center. That essentially pushes Dubois to the wing. Interestingly, he played RW at the recent World Championships. If he played RW in LA, that opens up even further line combo options. Fiala is a bit of a wild card in all of this because he could slot in on any one of the top three lines.
— Going Byfield, Kopitar, Danault down the middle (in any order) potentially opens up the idea of using Turcotte as the 4C. Regardless, they’ll likely want one veteran on the fourth line, playing with two kids. So, that opens up the possibility of re-signing Lewis or Grundstrom. While one of those two players is likely to return, we’d suggest it’s likely Lewis because he’ll cost roughly half of Grundstrom, and the team needs every $500k savings they can find. Now, if they are going that direction, would they trade Grundstrom’s rights at the Draft? He’s coming off a strong World Championships. LA only has four picks at the 2024 Draft. Acquiring more selections is a bit of a priority at the moment. It’s also why Roy’s rights being traded (or seeing him in a package deal) should be considered a worthwhile bet at this point.
— Could Tyler Toffoli return as the UFA who moves into the top-6? It’s the name we hinted at a few weeks ago and continue to hear there’s a possibility. There are several ways to get there, including having Fiala play LW.
— Mix the top eight forwards up in any combination desired. If Thomas can move in to be the ninth player, it accomplishes a few things. First, it frees up money to spend on the defense. Simultaneously, it could open up a spot for Andre Lee to get playing time. Again, that fourth line will need a veteran player, so moving Thomas or Turcotte up in the lineup would be needed to get Lee more than a few games here and there. He brings size and some sandpaper, as noted here just a few days ago.
— Conspicuously absent in the article thus far is Arthur Kaliyev. The situation has been discussed on Kings Of The Podcast for several months now. He isn’t expected back and will almost surely be traded before the Draft concludes later this month. He will either be flipped for a pick (third round?) or packaged in a deal for a goaltender. Either way, it will finally bring an end to a rather unfortunate situation that has played over the past few months. Kaliyev is talented. It just didn’t work out in LA.
— Who is the Goalie A listed above? Great question, and we’ll break that down in a separate article, allowing that specific topic enough air to breathe. For now, this article was just about laying out an overall plan, looking at things from 30,000ft. Moving ahead, with each ‘next’ move (contract signing, trade, etc.), the full 22 or 23-man picture will become clearer.
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