How big a deal is Oilers having last change at home?

KingzLA

KingzLA

3rd Line Winger
Help me manage my anxiety… Or at least give me some realistic expectations, so I can mentally prepare...

All you analysts out there... how big a deal with it be that the Oilers will have "last change" as home team? In my mind, it's a huge deal. Help me manage my anxiety 🫣
Cheers,

KngzLA
 
Unfortunately, a big deal when it shouldn't be.

Hiller relies too heavily on matchups. Look at our road record vs our home record. It speaks for itself.

Even in the blowout win last night, look at the ice time distributed by Hiller. He doesn't trust the 4th line and doesn't quite trust Spence or Moverare either. If any of them are out there and Edmonton eats them alive, Hiller is going to shorten that bench immediately like he did last year and gas out the team because Kopi and crew will be playing 22+ minutes a game instead of 17-18.

Hope I'm wrong, but we'll see. And also expect the Oilers to be gifted a lot of PPs.
 
Last change is crucial. If Hiller throws out the 4th line, you can bet Knoblauch would put out McDavid, maybe even with Draisaitl. The 4th line probably only plays right after a McDavid shift. It's easier for Knoblauch to get McDavid away from Danault or Kopitar at home. That said, this doesn't mean the Kings can't win up there (they have won 4 playoff games up there the past 3 years), but neither can last change be ignored.
 
TooCool said:
Unfortunately, a big deal when it shouldn't be.

Hiller relies too heavily on matchups. Look at our road record vs our home record. It speaks for itself.

Even in the blowout win last night, look at the ice time distributed by Hiller. He doesn't trust the 4th line and doesn't quite trust Spence or Moverare either. If any of them are out there and Edmonton eats them alive, Hiller is going to shorten that bench immediately like he did last year and gas out the team
TooCool said:
Unfortunately, a big deal when it shouldn't be.

Hiller relies too heavily on matchups. Look at our road record vs our home record. It speaks for itself.

Even in the blowout win last night, look at the ice time distributed by Hiller. He doesn't trust the 4th line and doesn't quite trust Spence or Moverare either. If any of them are out there and Edmonton eats them alive, Hiller is going to shorten that bench immediately like he did last year and gas out the team because Kopi and crew will be playing 22+ minutes a game instead of 17-18.

Hope I'm wrong, but we'll see. And also expect the Oilers to be gifted a lot of PPs.
Click to expand...


Hope I'm wrong, but we'll see. And also expect the Oilers to be gifted a lot of PPs.
Click to expand...
Will be? They're already playing those minutes.
 
TooCool said:
Unfortunately, a big deal when it shouldn't be.

Hiller relies too heavily on matchups. Look at our road record vs our home record. It speaks for itself.

Even in the blowout win last night, look at the ice time distributed by Hiller. He doesn't trust the 4th line and doesn't quite trust Spence or Moverare either. If any of them are out there and Edmonton eats them alive, Hiller is going to shorten that bench immediately like he did last year and gas out the team because Kopi and crew will be playing 22+ minutes a game instead of 17-18.

Hope I'm wrong, but we'll see. And also expect the Oilers to be gifted a lot of PPs.
Click to expand...
I think it is a concern with a fourth line of rookies especially on the road. And it’s a particular concern when the road games is in Edmonton.
I think it becomes less of a concern when it’s against other teams who don’t have McDavid and Draisital.
This is where the loss of Jeannot really hurts the Kings. With him in the lineup I would feel a lot better using that fourth line.
I don’t really have much concern with how the Oilers match up against the other lines. All three Centers are going to do OK against their big boys. They may give up something but won’t be overmatched.
 
Simple solution. Have helenius ping mcdavids head against the ice like Nurse did to Byfield, the first time knoblauch tries that matchup. Make sure it’s hard enough that we don’t have to deal with him the rest of the game. I’ll gladly take that 5 minute major to resolve this line matchup issue.

If anyone knows Rob Blake’s cell, give him a call and let him know I’ve got some free time, and would be happy to moonlight as an associate coach for the remainder of this first round playoff series.
 
JayWells24 said:
Helenius and Melott played very well down the stretch and have certainly earned ice time, especially Melott. He certainly deserves more minutes than he has received so far in games 1 and 2.
Click to expand...
I think both Helenius and Malott have been fine in the two games, especially for two players with a combined less than 50 games in the NHL.
One complicating factor was Turcotte not being very good in Game 1. It limited playing time for the last half of the first game.
I don’t know if Turcotte gets back in the lineup this series or not. I’d like to see him get the experience but the motto with rookies is “show you won’t hurt us before you show that you can help us”.

If not Turcotte, then it’s 11/7 or we see Lewis. Thomas is not getting in this series without something extraordinary occurring. If it’s me I’d give Turc another shot but it’s not my job.

Prior to the series I thought the fourth line could be an issue, especially in the road games. You know the Oilers want to exploit that matchup.
Ideally, we would love to see the Kings win Game 3 and then feel more comfortable playing the kids in Game 4 and lightening the minutes load on the rest of the team.

All this being said, the Kings have more depth on both sides in this series. The Oilers have two great players and a couple who benefit from playing with them. Outside of that there isn’t much on the offensive side, and we have seen how miserable their defense is.

I fully expect the Oilers to come out on fire in Game 3. It’s desperation time for them. I think the Kings can handle that. I hope the refs don’t succumb to the atmosphere, but I’ve seen enough to know better.
 
I have faith in either of the top 3 lines going up against the McDraisaitl line. So I wouldn’t worry too much about them. The 4th line not as much. I don’t even know if there will be a 4th line. Since they can’t match lines, they might try to match defensemen.
 
Just assume that 97/29 will be out there for every single faceoff so it doesn't really matter which line you put up against them. Hiller/coaches have them changing lines pretty much every 25 seconds, especially in the 1st periods, and that's been working well. As long as we don't take any stupid icings, it shouldn't be too much of an issue.

Also....I put "the juju" on that building when I was there last week, so we're totally good!
 
Nyssa42 said:
Just assume that 97/29 will be out there for every single faceoff so it doesn't really matter which line you put up against them. Hiller/coaches have them changing lines pretty much every 25 seconds, especially in the 1st periods, and that's been working well. As long as we don't take any stupid icings, it shouldn't be too much of an issue.

Also....I put "the juju" on that building when I was there last week, so we're totally good!
Click to expand...
Were you able to put a Silver Dollar beneath the ice at the center ice face off circle?!? lol
 
DarkLeftHand said:
Simple solution. Have helenius ping mcdavids head against the ice like Nurse did to Byfield, the first time knoblauch tries that matchup. Make sure it’s hard enough that we don’t have to deal with him the rest of the game. I’ll gladly take that 5 minute major to resolve this line matchup issue.

If anyone knows Rob Blake’s cell, give him a call and let him know I’ve got some free time, and would be happy to moonlight as an associate coach for the remainder of this first round playoff series.
Click to expand...
Downward spiral. As dirty as the Oilers are they’d have no problem going dirtier. I’d prefer our guys stay healthy. They’re drawing penalties so far, and scoring at will on the powerplay that should be a deterrent to the Oil getting too violent.

This is not to say don’t hit McDavid. Hit him every chance they can get. But head-hunting would not end well. Also it’s just not what this team does. It’s fan fiction to think Hiller would ever allow that. Which…why did I even respond to this post?
 
Last edited:
Generally speaking with last change it's most effective off an icing call. That presumes a line other than 97/29 pins the kings so they can come out fresher against tired D. Situationally it's a big deal. For regular play however expect the kings bench to stay short in the 11/7 unless there's a run of offensive zone faceoffs. Considering the kings are averaging about 10-15 icing calls a game it's a real factor.
 
Rusty said:
Ummm, first/last change is irrelevant on an icing call. The offending team can't change players so the non-offending team, by default, has last change.
Click to expand...
True, I got myself down a rabbit hole earlier thinking about icing. Turns out game one kings iced it 9 times, only 4 in game 2. Oddly enough in game one Spence was only out for an icing once. The rest of the time it was 6, 8, 44, and 84.

From this standpoint id say last change is less consequential.

Does anyone have stats on first goal for the kings road vs home?
 
The fourth line is the issue. Any combination of Melott/Helenius/Turcotte/Lewis out against McDrai is a recipe for disaster. So, how do the Kings avoid that situation? Adopt a "One Line" strategy. Not like EDM's literal one line and then nothing else, but rather spread your fourth liners among the second and third lines. To wit:
AK-AK-AK
Foegele-Danult-Helenius
Fiala-Byfield-Melott
Laferierre-Lewis-Moore

Make EDM defend AK AK line, shelter the Lewis line, spread the minutes out. STAY OUT OF THE BOX!
 
I fed ChatGPT some data from the series and asked it to develop tactics for game three and specifically the last change they get:

🏒​



1️⃣ Matchup Disruption: Beat Last Change with "Split Shifts"​


  • Objective: Make it hard for the Oilers to line match McDavid and Draisaitl effectively.
  • Tactics:
    • Split Byfield’s line shifts: Start Byfield or Fiala with rotated wingers (e.g., briefly with Laferriere or Turcotte).
    • This creates ambiguity, forcing Edmonton to guess whether to deploy McDavid or Draisaitl.
    • After 20-30 seconds, swap in Kempe or Fiala, ideally after Edmonton commits their top line.
  • Goal: Neutralize last change advantage by breaking predictable line structures.


2️⃣ Deploy Danault as the Floating Shadow on McDavid​


  • Objective: Minimize McDavid’s high-danger creation.
  • Tactics:
    • Danault takes faceoffs vs McDavid only in neutral/defensive zones.
    • If McDavid shifts onto Kings’ depth lines, double shift Danault or bring Kopitar out early.
    • Let Danault’s line grind McDavid in the neutral zone; force him wide and dump.
  • Goal: Wear down McDavid by denying him rush entries and in-zone time.


3️⃣ Stagger D-Pairs to Protect Clarke/Spence​


  • Objective: Shield Clarke/Spence from McDavid/Draisaitl while still utilizing their puck-moving.
  • Tactics:
    • Deploy Clarke only when you control the puck in neutral zone.
    • Keep Gavrikov/Anderson or Doughty with Clarke when possible.
    • Quick changes if Clarke gets pinned; immediate clear and switch.
    • Use Spence primarily on PP2 and offensive zone faceoffs.
  • Goal: Limit defensive zone shifts for vulnerable D, while using their transition ability after neutral zone turnovers.


4️⃣ Counterattack on Oilers’ Draisaitl Shifts​


  • Objective: Exploit Draisaitl’s defensive weaknesses.
  • Tactics:
    • When Draisaitl is on, pressure his line with heavy forechecking.
    • Send Foegele or Byfield hard on the forecheck, force turnovers on Bouchard’s side.
    • Encourage quick shots from bad angles, generating rebounds and chaos.
    • Have defensemen pinch cautiously when Draisaitl’s line is pinned.
  • Goal: Force Draisaitl’s line into reactive play, where they struggle to defend and transition.


5️⃣ Faceoff Strategy: Neutral Zone Traps & Stretch Pass Setups​


  • Objective: Counter Edmonton’s neutral zone dominance.
  • Tactics:
    • Off neutral zone faceoff losses, deploy a 1-1-3 trap to slow their entries.
    • On wins, look for stretch passes to Kempe or Fiala on quick cross-ice outlets.
    • Fake line changes post faceoff to bait the Oilers into early commitments, then quick up-ice attacks.
  • Goal: Keep the game outside of your zone, and punish Oilers for overcommitting.


6️⃣ Exploit Oilers' 3rd Pairing + Bouchard​


  • Objective: Force the Oilers to overplay Nurse/Kulak.
  • Tactics:
    • Hunt Bouchard’s shifts: Byfield’s line or Foegele’s line should target his side with dump-ins and retrieval battles.
    • Clog the slot, Bouchard tends to leave gaps in coverage.
    • Shoot from high to force rebound saves, especially with Kuemper’s tracking issues.
  • Goal: Wear down their top D pair by forcing longer shifts and turnovers.


7️⃣ Penalty Discipline – Stay Out of the Box​


  • Objective: Do not give McDavid/Draisaitl time on the PP.
  • Tactics:
    • No stick fouls in the neutral zone.
    • Containment > contact in the defensive zone – avoid overcommitting.
    • Let Foegele and Moore pressure PK shifts, minimize zone time by clearing hard.
  • Goal: Keep this 5v5, where the Kings can control the pace and matchups better.



🔥 Key Mindset: Force Edmonton to Open Up​


  • Don't chase the matchups – disrupt them.
  • Be ready for high-pressure waves, but capitalize on their risks.
  • The Kings have the better depth – make Edmonton’s stars win it alone.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Now Chirping

  • No one is chatting at the moment.

Share this page

Back
Top