E
emsomaso
Lurker
Hi everyone!
I got a bit tired of the whole discussion about if Blake did a terrible job drafting Byfield with the 2:nd pick in the 2020 draft or not! So I decided to look thru the top 10 draft picks from 2008 (when we last picked at number 2) up until 2018 (after that it’s get difficult to yet know if a pick was good or not) and sort the selected players in 3 categories (great, acceptable and bad) based on what they did bring to the club that drafted them.
To be counted as 1. a great pick we’re basically talking star player, 2. acceptable is a good player for a long time or maybe he got traded, left early as a FA or didn’t develop exactly as thought/hoped and 3. a bad pick is just what it says…
And remember, this is just my personal opinions and there will for sure be players that should have been placed in another category. But this is just for fun and maybe can be something to discuss, not an exact truth or anything like that!
So let’s get started:
2008
1. Great pick = 3 (Stamkos, Doughty, Pietrangelo)
2. Acceptable pick = 1 (Bailey)
3. Bad pick = 6 (Bogosian, L.Schenn, Filatov, Wilson, Boedker, Hodgson)
2009
1. Great pick = 2 (Tavares, Hedman)
2. Acceptable pick = 5 (Duchene, Kane, B.Schenn, Ekman Larsson, Kadri)
3. Bad pick = 3 (Glennie, Cowan, Paajarvi)
2010
1. Great pick = 1 (Hall)
2. Acceptable pick = 4 (Seguin, Johansen, Skinner, Granlund)
3. Bad pick = 5 (Gudbranson, Niederreiter, Connolly, Burmistrov, McIllrath)
2011
1. Great pick = 4 (Landeskog, Huberdeau, Scheifele, Couturier
2. Acceptable pick = 5 (Nugent-Hopkins, Larsson, Zibanejad, Hamilton, Brodin)
3. Bad pick = 1 (Strome)
2012
1. Great pick = 1 (Reilly)
2. Acceptable pick = 3 (Lindholm, Dumba, Trouba)
3. Bad pick = 6 (Yakupov, Murray, Reinhart, Galchenyuk, Koekkoek, Pouliot)
2013
1. Great pick = 3 (MacKinnon, Barkov, Horvat)
2. Acceptable pick = 4 (Jones, Lindholm, Monahan, Nurse)
3. Bad pick = 3 (Drouin, Ristolainen, Nichuschkin)
2014
1. Great pick = 3 (Ekblad, Draisaitl, W.Nylander)
2. Acceptable pick = 2 (Reinhart, Ehlers)
3. Bad pick = 5 (Bennett, Dal Colle, Virtanen, Fleury, Ritchie)
2015
1. Great pick = 4 (McDavid, Marner, Meier, Rantanen)
2. Acceptable pick = 4 (Eichel, Hanifin, Provorov, Werenski)
3. Bad pick = 2 (Strome, Zacha)
2016
1. Great pick = 3 (Matthews, Laine, M.Tkachuk)
2. Acceptable pick = 3 (Dubois, Keller, Sergachyov)
3. Bad pick = 4 (Puljujarvi, Juholevi, A.Nylander, Jost)
2017
1. Great pick = 3 (Hischier, Makar, Pettersson)
2. Acceptable pick = 2 (Heiskanen, Rasmussen)
3. Bad pick = 5 (Patrick, Glass, Andersson, Mittelstadt, Tippett)
2018
1. Great pick = 3 (Dahlin, Svechnikov, B.Tkachuk)
2. Acceptable pick = 2 (Hughes, Bouchard)
3. Bad pick = 5 (Kotkaniemi, Hayton, Zadina, Boqvist, Kravtsov)
In total 2008 - 2018
1. Great pick = 30 (27%)
2. Acceptable pick = 35 (32%)
3. Bad pick = 45 (41%)
First, thanks to anyone who hang thrue until the end!
Lets then finish of with my amateur conclusion: Did Blake make a mistake drafting Byfield? Pretty easy to answer (or impossible depending on how you look at it…) since there is simply way to early for anyone to tell. Byfield came with a ”will take time to reach his potential” tag attached and this is exactly what it looks like today! Do we all wish he would have shown more by now, of course we do! Is it surprising that he still looks very raw, not the least!
It is also worth noting that from what I’ve read, pretty much every other team in the league would have drafted Byfield before Stutzle if given the chance. So it is not like this is a new ”going off the board and select Thomas Hickey” pick, like I’ve seen some refer it too…
So if Blake did a mistake, he’s for sure in ”good” company since only 27% of the above players drafted can be seen as great picks, which is what you as a fan wants (demands…) of a top 10 pick! That means that 73% of the 110 players drafted in the top ten during this 11 year span didn’t develop like the most knowledgable people in the game thought they would/should/could…
Even if I narrow it down to just the top 3 selections during this period it shows how difficult it is to hit the jackpot in the draft since basically only half of them can be seen as great picks for the club that drafted them:
1. Great pick = 17/33 or 52% (Stamkos, Doughty, Tavares, Hedman, Hall, Landeskog, Huberdeau, MacKinnon, Barkov, Ekblad, Draisaitl, McDavid, Matthews, Laine, Hischier, Dahlin, Svechnikov)
2. Acceptable pick = 7/33 or 21% (Duchene, Seguin, Nugent-Hopkins, Reinhart, Eichel, Dubois, Heiskanen)
3. Bad pick = 9/33 or 27% (Bogosian, Gudbranson, Yakupov, Murray, Galchenyuk, Drouin, Strome, Patrick, Kotkaniemi)
So hopefully we can all agree that the draft is kind of a crap-shot and I’m glad I’m not the one who has to do these decisions!
As said, this is my personal take and I don’t expect everyone to agree with me…
I got a bit tired of the whole discussion about if Blake did a terrible job drafting Byfield with the 2:nd pick in the 2020 draft or not! So I decided to look thru the top 10 draft picks from 2008 (when we last picked at number 2) up until 2018 (after that it’s get difficult to yet know if a pick was good or not) and sort the selected players in 3 categories (great, acceptable and bad) based on what they did bring to the club that drafted them.
To be counted as 1. a great pick we’re basically talking star player, 2. acceptable is a good player for a long time or maybe he got traded, left early as a FA or didn’t develop exactly as thought/hoped and 3. a bad pick is just what it says…
And remember, this is just my personal opinions and there will for sure be players that should have been placed in another category. But this is just for fun and maybe can be something to discuss, not an exact truth or anything like that!
So let’s get started:
2008
1. Great pick = 3 (Stamkos, Doughty, Pietrangelo)
2. Acceptable pick = 1 (Bailey)
3. Bad pick = 6 (Bogosian, L.Schenn, Filatov, Wilson, Boedker, Hodgson)
2009
1. Great pick = 2 (Tavares, Hedman)
2. Acceptable pick = 5 (Duchene, Kane, B.Schenn, Ekman Larsson, Kadri)
3. Bad pick = 3 (Glennie, Cowan, Paajarvi)
2010
1. Great pick = 1 (Hall)
2. Acceptable pick = 4 (Seguin, Johansen, Skinner, Granlund)
3. Bad pick = 5 (Gudbranson, Niederreiter, Connolly, Burmistrov, McIllrath)
2011
1. Great pick = 4 (Landeskog, Huberdeau, Scheifele, Couturier
2. Acceptable pick = 5 (Nugent-Hopkins, Larsson, Zibanejad, Hamilton, Brodin)
3. Bad pick = 1 (Strome)
2012
1. Great pick = 1 (Reilly)
2. Acceptable pick = 3 (Lindholm, Dumba, Trouba)
3. Bad pick = 6 (Yakupov, Murray, Reinhart, Galchenyuk, Koekkoek, Pouliot)
2013
1. Great pick = 3 (MacKinnon, Barkov, Horvat)
2. Acceptable pick = 4 (Jones, Lindholm, Monahan, Nurse)
3. Bad pick = 3 (Drouin, Ristolainen, Nichuschkin)
2014
1. Great pick = 3 (Ekblad, Draisaitl, W.Nylander)
2. Acceptable pick = 2 (Reinhart, Ehlers)
3. Bad pick = 5 (Bennett, Dal Colle, Virtanen, Fleury, Ritchie)
2015
1. Great pick = 4 (McDavid, Marner, Meier, Rantanen)
2. Acceptable pick = 4 (Eichel, Hanifin, Provorov, Werenski)
3. Bad pick = 2 (Strome, Zacha)
2016
1. Great pick = 3 (Matthews, Laine, M.Tkachuk)
2. Acceptable pick = 3 (Dubois, Keller, Sergachyov)
3. Bad pick = 4 (Puljujarvi, Juholevi, A.Nylander, Jost)
2017
1. Great pick = 3 (Hischier, Makar, Pettersson)
2. Acceptable pick = 2 (Heiskanen, Rasmussen)
3. Bad pick = 5 (Patrick, Glass, Andersson, Mittelstadt, Tippett)
2018
1. Great pick = 3 (Dahlin, Svechnikov, B.Tkachuk)
2. Acceptable pick = 2 (Hughes, Bouchard)
3. Bad pick = 5 (Kotkaniemi, Hayton, Zadina, Boqvist, Kravtsov)
In total 2008 - 2018
1. Great pick = 30 (27%)
2. Acceptable pick = 35 (32%)
3. Bad pick = 45 (41%)
First, thanks to anyone who hang thrue until the end!
Lets then finish of with my amateur conclusion: Did Blake make a mistake drafting Byfield? Pretty easy to answer (or impossible depending on how you look at it…) since there is simply way to early for anyone to tell. Byfield came with a ”will take time to reach his potential” tag attached and this is exactly what it looks like today! Do we all wish he would have shown more by now, of course we do! Is it surprising that he still looks very raw, not the least!
It is also worth noting that from what I’ve read, pretty much every other team in the league would have drafted Byfield before Stutzle if given the chance. So it is not like this is a new ”going off the board and select Thomas Hickey” pick, like I’ve seen some refer it too…
So if Blake did a mistake, he’s for sure in ”good” company since only 27% of the above players drafted can be seen as great picks, which is what you as a fan wants (demands…) of a top 10 pick! That means that 73% of the 110 players drafted in the top ten during this 11 year span didn’t develop like the most knowledgable people in the game thought they would/should/could…
Even if I narrow it down to just the top 3 selections during this period it shows how difficult it is to hit the jackpot in the draft since basically only half of them can be seen as great picks for the club that drafted them:
1. Great pick = 17/33 or 52% (Stamkos, Doughty, Tavares, Hedman, Hall, Landeskog, Huberdeau, MacKinnon, Barkov, Ekblad, Draisaitl, McDavid, Matthews, Laine, Hischier, Dahlin, Svechnikov)
2. Acceptable pick = 7/33 or 21% (Duchene, Seguin, Nugent-Hopkins, Reinhart, Eichel, Dubois, Heiskanen)
3. Bad pick = 9/33 or 27% (Bogosian, Gudbranson, Yakupov, Murray, Galchenyuk, Drouin, Strome, Patrick, Kotkaniemi)
So hopefully we can all agree that the draft is kind of a crap-shot and I’m glad I’m not the one who has to do these decisions!
As said, this is my personal take and I don’t expect everyone to agree with me…
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