Kings GM Rob Blake continues to check items off his summer to do list, with the recent signing of Quinton Byfield ticking off one of his major priorities. Additional deals have also been secured for Akil Thomas, Alex Turcotte, and several free agents. This leaves defenseman Jordan Spence up next.
From what we understand, those negotiations are expected to heat up in the coming days, with a new deal hopefully announced in the not-to-distant future.
What will the Spence contract look like? Let’s dig in and take a look.
For starters, the Kings are in a good position from a salary cap perspective. In our most recent 2024-25 Lineup Projection article, the Kings should have more than $1.5M in extra cap space after signing Byfield and Spence.
While the Byfield contract came in pretty much on projection, will Spence follow suit?
It’s a conversation that is quite interesting for several reasons, not the least of which is — Who is Spence? And what will be become?
Spence is coming off his first full season in the NHL. He entered 2023-24 having played 30 games for LA over the prior two seasons. This past year, he suited up for 71 of the team’s 82 regular season contests and produced 24 points (2G, 22A).
For his career, Spence now has 101 GP and 33 points.
While those aren’t eye-popping stats on their own, it’s the second question — about the future — that is intriguing. He will most likely see an elevated role this coming season, moving from the third pair to second pair responsibilities. However, how long will that last? Brandt Clarke will be pushing hard from behind and it’s assumed it’s only a matter of time before the former first round selection moves into a more prominent role himself. Thus, Spence’s power play time and any increase in minutes could actually be somewhat short-lived.
All in, this suggests that while Byfield was largely paid off of production expected to come in the future, doing something similar for Spence is a tricky balancing act. It’s similar to why re-signing Matt Roy to a big money contract never really made much sense for the Kings. For as good as a player as Roy may be, if he was staying on the right side, he would most likely end up as a third-pair guy with Doughty and Clarke holding down the first two spots as early as one year from now.
Again, what does this mean for Spence?
Having played out the last year of his entry level contract, and having been qualified last month, Spence has essentially already been offered a contract for next season at $813,750 (per PuckPedia, his qualifying offer was automatically generated at 5% more than his $775K base salary from last year).
He could sign that, sure. It would essentially kick the can on a longer term and/or bigger money contract down the street to next summer. It would be a bit of a gamble, though. If the development of Clarke goes as expected, Spence could potentially be worth less to the Kings next summer; a potential situation that would impact those negotiations.
Instead, signing a multi-year deal now could be to his benefit.
Before we move ahead here, some may recall Mikey Anderson was in a similar situation a few years ago and opted to bet on himself. He took a one-year, $1M deal and cashed in later with a long-term contract carrying an AAV of more than $4M.
Spence isn’t in the same situation. As noted above, he isn’t necessarily penciled in for an increased role long-term (or even a steady role, as Anderson was).
Sean Durzi would likely be a more apt comparison in this situation. At the conclusion of his ELC he had played 64 games with the Kings and produced .42 points-per-game (slightly better than Spence’s .33 PPG). Durzi was also a second-round pick, two rounds earlier than Spence was taken in 2019. All of these factors are typically considered during these situations.
Durzi signed a two-year extension carrying a $1.7M AAV.
Comparable Contracts
More recent comps for players around the league in similar situations include:
— Cam York signed with Philadelphia; two years at $1.6M. Was selected in the first round, 14th overall, the same year Spence was drafted.
— Jamie Drysdale signed with Anaheim; three years $2.3M. He also was a first round pick.
— Braden Schneider just signed for two years at $2.2M. He was a Rangers first round pick.
Prediction Time
A two-year deal seems to make the most sense for both sides. If Spence is looking for more money than simply what’s available on his qualifying offer, the Kings will most likely want additional term. Locking him up for three years could be accomplished at the right price, yet it would actually somewhat limit Spence’s future earning potential if he thinks he can follow a similar path as Durzi.
From an LA perspective, the wheelhouse should be fairly easy to hone in on. They’re most likely looking at two years, three years max. On the money side, we’ll stick with our earlier projection of $1.5 AAV, with a variance of +/- $250K.
Once training camp opens up, we’re curious to see how coach Jim Hiller will utilize Spence on the power play. As noted during his recent visit to Kings Of The Podcast (linked below), the team is currently limited to just a few right shot options. Spence was a first-team AHL All-Star while quarterbacking the Reign power play to an all-time AHL best level just a few years ago. He was previously named QMJHL Rookie of the Year, followed by Defenseman of the Year the following season. Thus, he has proven to be a valuable and productive player when given the opportunity.
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