To accept the logic behind package proposed by Pronman, et al., one has to accept the false-premise of the article, which was that the price SJ paid for Karlsson was appropriate. From the day that trade happened, everybody (except SJ fans) has said they WAY overpaid, and history has proven that belief to be accurate. So there's little value in saying "because Karlsson was traded for X, Jones will be traded for Y". While the authors attempt to close the logical gap by degrading the return for Jones (alleging that Jones is less valuable than Karlsson, which also gives me pause), they ignore the fact that the cost for Karlsson wasn't market value at the time. It was a desperate team overpaying to get one last kick at the can before the window slammed shut. That's not the Kings situation...not at all. Jones' return won't be anywhere near these combinations unless a team has ensured they'll have him locked up long term. While this isn't at all implausible, even then these bounties are too high.
I'd also say that the
#8 pick in this years draft will be more valuable than next year's first round pick. The lack of fanfare around this draft is a result of lack of exposure, not lack of talent. There will be a career NHLer available at
#8 , and next year's #12-16 won't be as valuable.
When Jones is traded, expect to see a quick contract extension or a sign and trade, at least if Jarmo learned anything from last summer. In the case of guaranteed term, I could see something like a 1st round pick ('21 or '22), and one of LA's less than elite center prospects (basically Q and Turcotte being untouchable). If Kempe is involved, the pick gets downgraded to a 2nd and a lower grade prospect may come into play.
I'm thinking he goes to Colorado, as they are in a position to justify overpaying, as SJ did with Karlsson, but then again, Jarmo has not impressed me with his savvy.
