Projecting out an NHL team’s roster isn’t as straight forward as some might think. In fact, General Managers quite often make decisions to keep player A over B while believing Player B is actually better or has more upside. If that’s the case, why would a GM willingly opt to put less than the ‘best roster available’ when selecting his 23 players?
In a single word, waivers.
A more detailed answer would involve the term ‘asset protection.’
For those unfamiliar with the finer details of NHL contracts — and we’re painting with a broad brush here for easy understanding — players can go back and forth between the AHL and NHL as many times as needed without consequences during their entry level contract (note: an ELC is usually a period of three years). After that, they need to pass through waivers before being assigned to the AHL. Waivers simply means they are made available to all other teams around the league for 24 hours. If no other NHL team claims them, then said player can be assigned to the AHL free and clear.
For example, a veteran player like Joel Armia can’t just be sent to Ontario if he isn’t playing well. He’d first need to pass through waivers. By contrast, Brandt Clarke is entering the final year of his ELC contract. So, theoretically speaking, he could go to the AHL without having to pass through waivers this season.
The whole idea of waivers is a concept that most often comes up during training camp. Back to protecting assets. Again, sometimes Player B goes down to Ontario because if Player B is kept on the NHL roster, the Kings could conceivably lose Player A to waivers. For depth purposes, some GMs would favor holding onto both players, rather that lose one of them to another club.
Moving on from hockey theory, let’s get into reality. Earlier this summer we projected the Kings roster as follows:
Kings 2025-26 Projected Roster
Kuzmenko – Kopitar – Kempe
Fiala – Byfield – Laferriere
Moore – Danault – Foegele
Perry – Turcotte – Armia
[healthy scratch A]
[healthy scratch B]
Anderson – Doughty
Edmundson – Clarke
Dumoulin – Ceci
[healthy scratch C]
Kuemper
Forsberg
Line combinations and defensive pairings aren’t ultra crucial to this conversation. Nearly everybody would agree, at least 20 of the 23 names on LA’s opening night roster are all but written in stone (as listed above).
Where things get dicey is rounding out the other three names. Most teams arrange their three extra spots as two forwards and one defenseman. Last season, the Kings went with two defensemen and one forward, forming the less common 13+8 alignment.
This year could start out the same way, as we’ll get into below.
Almost Surely Going on Waivers
Without going too far down a wormhole, there are typically two types of players in an organization: those for the NHL roster and those for the AHL roster. Although occasionally somebody in the latter group pops into the NHL briefly (see Taylor Ward last season).
We bring this up because every summer there are players signed to NHL contracts who are really intended for the Reign. Nearly all of these are two-way deals, in that they carry one salary in the minor leagues and another salary if the player is ever up in the NHL.
In addition to Ward, these players are almost surely going to be placed on waivers during training camp and end up with the Reign:
Glenn Gawdin, Logan Brown, Cole Guttman, Joe Hicketts, Samuel Boduc, and Pheonix Copley.
Some people might not have even known all of those guys are on NHL contracts, but they are. This often leads to two questions for Reign fans. What about Jacob Doty? He’s not on NHL deal. He signed an AHL only contract, so he can leave the Kings main camp and join AHL Ontario anytime necessary. This is also why the Kings didn’t call him up last year for some added toughness. Without an NHL contract, he can’t be recalled.
The second question is what about somebody like Angus Booth? Well, he’s still on his ELC, so he doesn’t need waivers. Erik Portillo is also still exempt from waivers due to special rules for goaltenders.
Likely List of Waiver Risks
Back to the problem at hand. LA has up to three roster spots up for grabs during training camp.
This is the list of players who are expected to compete for those three spots:
Forwards: Martin Chromiak, Sammy Helenius, Andre Lee, Jeff Malott, Akil Thomas
Defensemen: Kyle Burroughs, Jacob Moverare
That’s seven players vying for a maximum of three spots. Now… if any Kings player ends up injured or being suspended during preseason — like we’ve seen in recent years — it just kicks the problem down the road a few weeks. To keep things easy, we’re going to excuse both of those notions for now.
Thus, four players will end up on waivers if they aren’t traded during camp. Remember that number for later too.
If coach Jim Hiller opts for the aforementioned 13+8 alignment, that puts Burroughs and Moverare on the NHL roster and means only one of the five forwards gets to stay with the Kings.
If Holland and Hiller intend to utilize a more traditional 14+7 roster construction, two forwards stay and one of Burroughs/Moverare will need to be placed on waivers.
When it comes to guessing which defenseman is most likely to pass through waivers if the Kings were to attempt such an exercise, it’s the old adage of beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Moverare is four years younger and carries a less expensive contract ($775K vs. $1.1M). In addition to being more expensive, though, Burroughs also has more experience (201 NHL games vs. 94), is a right shot, and brings a physical edge to his game.
Looking at the forwards, we don’t see any scenario where the team would risk placing Helenius on waivers. If true, that makes this whole exercise even more difficult, as that really leaves just two open spots up for grabs.
Of the remaining group, Chromiak might just be the easiest to sneak through. He’s a former fifth round pick, hasn’t really lit up the scoreboard in Ontario, and has yet to play an NHL game. He’s on the cusp of getting a look at the NHL level, but another team would really have to like him to snag him. Lee is under contract for two more years — a strategic move by former GM Rob Blake for this exact situation. Having more term left on a player’s contract often dissuades other teams from claiming a player. This type of a poison pill should help the Kings retain Lee for depth this season. They like him and don’t want to lose him.
Which brings us to Malott and Thomas. The former has been a consistent 20-goal scorer at the AHL level and at 6-foot-5 brings plenty of size to the role. He played 12 games for the Kings last season when Tanner Jeannot went down in late March. Malott also saw his ice time dramatically reduced in the playoffs when Hiller largely utilized three forwards. Add in the offseason signings of Armia and Perry, and he’ll most likely just miss out on the 23-man opening night roster.
Which brings us to Thomas. Who knows. His lack of deployment last season has raised a myriad of questions that the organization has yet to answer. After coming into camp with a general understanding he’d be an everyday player in 2024-25, the 25-year-old Swiss Army knife only suited up for 25 games and yielded just one goal. A far cry from three goals in seven games during his initially cup of coffee the year prior. It’s no secret a change of scenery would likely be welcomed at this point, yet he remains property of the Kings until further notice.
And What About Greentree
Ah, yes, Liam Greentree. If only he was drafted a year later. Beginning next summer, NHL teams will be allowed to send one of their 19-year-old prospects to the AHL (thanks in part to a long overdue change in prospect rules). However, at the present time, young Greentree is ineligible for the AHL. That means, he’ll be in the OHL or NHL for the bulk of this season. We say bulk because there’s always the possibility he gets the Clarke treatment, where he stays with the big club for an extended time, eventually gets a conditioning assignment in Ontario, and then joins Team Canada for the World Juniors in December.
However, he’s most likely targeted for the OHL because — for starters — there’s no guarantee he even makes Canada’s WJC roster given their lack of interest in him over the past 18+ months. That’s more of a political thing than any other reason, the same way it happened to Tyler Toffoli back in the day.
The other thing that will likely force LA’s hand with Greentree is waivers. Not for him (he’s exempt), but the waiver status of other players. Again, Holland and Hiller are realistically only looking at two open spots on their 23-man roster. Slotting Greentree into one of those positions would lead to a fifth player going on waivers to make room.
Back to asset protection, is that worth it? Especially if the idea is to just keep Greentree up for a handful of games?
Now, if Greentree is so impressive during camp that he plays his way into a full-time NHL roster spot, all bets are off. Putting a fifth player on waivers — or even trading one of those five — wouldn’t cause Holland as much concern when looking over his depth chart.
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