The NHL?s 10 worst contracts, 2021 edition: Drew Doughty retains his title

I don't have a subscription, but Jeff Skinner has to have the worst contract in the NHL.

Drew is overpaid, but not by that much based on where the market is nowadays.
 
I read the article. It’s based on straight statistical analysis. I’m a believer in fancy stats and it’s a great tool, but if that’s your only tool for evaluating a player (the article), then Kyle Dubas or John Chayka would love to offer you a job. Of course it might be short lived because eventually the owner is going to get tired of you explaining to him that according to the stats, you are a Stanley Cup Championship team, but reality proves otherwise.
 
HeadInjury said:
I don't have a subscription, but Jeff Skinner has to have the worst contract in the NHL.

Drew is overpaid, but not by that much based on where the market is nowadays.
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Skinner is #3 . Sharks come in at #s 2 (Karlsson), 6 (Vlasic), and 7 (Couture). And in a bit of a surprise, Seth Jones already cracks the list at #4 .
 
Would love to see at least the relevant details for drew posted here. I find it hard to believe his contract is the worst in the NHL considering how bad some of those other contracts are.
 
Helvetica said:
Would love to see at least the relevant details for drew posted here. I find it hard to believe his contract is the worst in the NHL

considering how bad some of those other contracts are.
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A couple of charts and some of the reasoning from the article:

On a poor Kings team, Doughty had a below-average expected goal and actual share again, but he managed to reverse an ugly trend where he was below average relative to the team too. This time he was positive, the Kings’ best defender. Coupled with a 50-point pace, Doughty was worth about 1.3 wins per 82 last season. Not bad, and it’s clear he isn’t cooked just yet.
The problem is that the expectation at $11 million is significantly higher than “top pair caliber.” The expectation is elite level play, roughly 2.6 wins on average through the life of the deal. That’s twice as good as Doughty’s return-to-form season. It’s an extremely high bar to clear, one prime Doughty could, but 31-year-old Doughty likely can’t. It’ll be an even bigger problem for 32, 33, 34, 35, and 36-year-old Doughty and that’s the main reason Doughty is here again at the top of this list.
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doughtyproj.png
 
santiclaws said:
A couple of charts and some of the reasoning from the article:
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I cant help but wonder if Doughty would also benefit from having another top tier defenseman here to reduce his usage, a la Kopitar. Guy is a warrior, but at his age, you'd have to assume it's time to reduce his workload a bit and start considering his deployment.
 
ChiKingFan said:
Skinner is #3 . Sharks come in at #s 2 (Karlsson), 6 (Vlasic), and 7 (Couture). And in a bit of a surprise, Seth Jones already cracks the list at #4 .
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Thanks. If we offered up Drew straight 1 for 1 with no retention, Buffalo would agree to trade Skinner and the Sharks would agree to trade Karlsson in a heartbeat. Hell, San Jose might also be willing to swap Drew for Couture, Vlasic, Kane or Burns too.

(My point being that he has nowhere near the worst contract in the league.)
 
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HeadInjury said:
Thanks. If we offered up Drew straight 1 for 1 with no retention, Buffalo would agree to trade Skinner and the Sharks would agree to trade Karlsson in a heartbeat. Hell, San Jose might also be willing to swap Drew for Couture, Vlasic, Kane or Burns too.

(My point being that he has nowhere near the worst contract in the league.)
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yeah im having a hard time seeing how Drew stayed at the top of this list given those contracts. Karlsson's contract is slightly higher and a year longer. And that guy has seemingly cratered pretty hard.
 
I just posted this in another thread...

I find it HILARIOUS that analytic nerds say Doughty's contract is THE worst in the NHL, while ACTUAL NHL PLAYERS rated him 4th best D last season and THE BEST D in 2019-20.
 
jt said:
I just posted this in another thread...

I find it HILARIOUS that analytic nerds say Doughty's contract is THE worst in the NHL, while ACTUAL NHL PLAYERS rated him 4th best D last season and THE BEST D in 2019-20.
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I bet half those guys didn't even play against Doughty last season. NHL players are just as susceptible to bias and memories of what someone once was, and if you needed any evidence, him being rated the best in 2019-20 is all the evidence you need . He was a ****ing disaster in 19-20. He was a little better last season, but he's not half the player he used to be, and that's without looking at stats. That's just having ownership of ****ing eyeballs.
 
santiclaws said:
I bet half those guys didn't even play against Doughty last season. NHL players are just as susceptible to bias and memories of what someone once was, and if you needed any evidence, him being rated the best in 2019-20 is all the evidence you need . He was a ****ing disaster in 19-20. He was a little better last season, but he's not half the player he used to be, and that's without looking at stats. That's just having ownership of ****ing eyeballs.
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Thanks for the laugh. I assume you meant this post as comedy.

I love the analytic nerds, but I trust actual NHLers over analytic nerds.
 
santiclaws said:
I don't.
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Seriously? You think actual NHL players don't know what makes for a good NHL player? Or are you talking about fantasy hockey? Because if you really do believe that actual NHL people don't know what makes for a good NHL player, I don't even know what to say.
 
jt said:
Seriously? You think actual NHL players don't know what makes for a good NHL player? Or are you talking about fantasy hockey? Because if you really do believe that actual NHL people don't know what makes for a good NHL player, I don't even know what to say.
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First of all, you are ignoring what I said - they were going by reputation and not necessarily what they personally observed recently, especially since I guarantee that many of the voting players did not even play against Doughty last season. Second, NHL players, when elevated to GM and coach positions, have repeatedly proven that many of them have no clue whatsoever regarding what makes a good NHL player. Third, I don't believe in the eye test, except as a very crude measure of a player, regardless of who administers the eye test. That includes NHL players and professional scouts. Analytics have become important for a reason. The primary reason being that people whose job it was to evaluate players weren't very good at it.

Again, these are the same players who voted Doughty the best defenseman in the NHL in 2019-20, when he was, by any measure including said eye test, a disaster. If you think they were right and he really was the best defenseman in the NHL, then I don't know what to say.
 
When Doughty is motivated, as we see maybe 2-3 times a year, he is one of the best. Look when the Maple Leafs come to town.

But there is nothing special about him anymore and it sucks cause he is still young and in his prime.
 
santiclaws said:
First of all, you are ignoring what I said - they were going by reputation and not necessarily what they personally observed recently, especially since I guarantee that many of the voting players did not even play against Doughty last season. Second, NHL players, when elevated to GM and coach positions, have repeatedly proven that many of them have no clue whatsoever regarding what makes a good NHL player. Third, I don't believe in the eye test, except as a very crude measure of a player, regardless of who administers the eye test. That includes NHL players and professional scouts. Analytics have become important for a reason. The primary reason being that people whose job it was to evaluate players weren't very good at it.

Again, these are the same players who voted Doughty the best defenseman in the NHL in 2019-20, when he was, by any measure including said eye test, a disaster. If you think they were right and he really was the best defenseman in the NHL, then I don't know what to say.
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Wow...just wow. Actual NHL people have no clue and only fans and analytic nerds are smart.

Okie dokie.
 
santiclaws said:
He was a ****ing disaster in 19-20. He was a little better last season, but he's not half the player he used to be, and that's without looking at stats.
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First part, agreed. Second part, not so much. By most any measure, including the eye-test, he had quite a significant bounce back season last year. I'd suggest digging into the fancy stats if your eyes didn't see it. He put up the 2nd best PP stats of his career last season. Just a hair off his career best. What he didn't do was score 5 on 5. And that's absolutely a problem. But he also had the highest Fenwick REL. of his career. The team stunk. He didn't. He had almost no help 5 on 5 last season. Remember the Kings were 29th in the league in 5 on 5 goals.

In a vacuum, Drew's contract sucks. However, I would much rather have Drew and his contract vs. any other player (and their contract) on the worst contract list. There's plenty of tread left on his tires.
 
Drew Doughty's number one problem is motivation. Last season was the perfect example. When the team looked like they could surprise everyone he was great. It wasn't a minor bounceback, it was starting to look like a true return to form. Then once the wheels fell off, he was awful. Now, should you find a way to get motivated for your millions and millions of dollars? Hell yeah, you should BUT if there is anyone here who would trade him for the likes of Erik Karlsson then I thank the lord you have no say over what this team does. I expect a full bounce back from Doughty this year because of the better team around him and as much as I love the guy, if you want to argue he should be motivated ALL the time, especially with his paycheck, I'd be hard pressed to win that argument.
 
So here's the list according to Luszczyszyn.

1. Drew Doughty (D) (LAK)
2. Erik Karlsson (D) (SJS)
3. Jeff Skinner (F) (BUF)
4. Seth Jones (D) (CHI)
5. Oliver Ekman-Larsson (D) (VAN)
6. Marc-Edouard Vlasic (D) (SJS)
7. Logan Couture (F) (SJS
8. Josh Morrissey (D) (WPG)
9. Tyler Seguin (F) (DAL)
10. Ryan Johansen/Matt Duchene (F) (NSH)
 
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