Whatever the Kings' problems, it ain't the coach

[santiclaws]

All their advanced stats are very strong. Reminiscent of the 2011-12 team when it was sucking. The second line is the top possession line in the entire NHL right now - they won't let the other team have the puck at all. The team is creating more PP opportunities than league average. They're giving up fewer PP opportunities than league average. Their PP scoring percentage is even higher than league average. They're spending considerably more time in the opposition's zone than the opposition is spending in theirs. They're creating more high danger scoring opportunities than the opposition. But their shooting percentage is well below league average and they're converting high danger opportunities at a couple of percentage points below the league average, while at the other end, opposing teams are scoring at a higher clip on high danger opportunities than the league average (hello, goaltending).

What else do you expect the coach to do besides put his team in a position to score more often that the opposition? Go out there and score himself? Get in net? They don't have enough high-end scoring threats at forward and there's virtually no scoring threat from the blue line. They don't have a single top tier sniper and there's just not enough scoring talent up and down the lineup. A lot of things can happen which will improve the scoring - Arvidsson starts shooting at a percentage closer to his career average rather than half of it as he has since has come back from his nasty injury, Vilardi wakes up, they bring up someone from the Reigh who starts scoring, Rasmus stays hot and starts moving up the lineup, Kaliyev picks things up, Byfield returns and starts filling the net, Doughty returns from injury. But they need several of those things to happen.

The bottom line is that there's not a hell of a lot a coach can do when his team has the puck a lot more than the opposition, creates more Grade A chances than the opposition, but the scorers aren't scoring and the goalies aren't stopping the puck.

 

[Helvetica]

this "fire the coach" stuff is absurd.

 

[HeadInjury]

As hard as it is (for some) to accept, we don't suck.

 

[Bollocks]

Voice of reason.

Some people really think coaches are magicians. The system in and of itself isn't bad, but the players need time to adjust. Last year was a crapshoot, this year there are quite a few fresh faces. They needed time, they started winning some games. If they find the groove, collectively, they can be a .500 team even without DD in the lineup.

 

[Illegal_Stick]

Voice of reason.

Some people really think coaches are magicians. The system in and of itself isn't bad, but the players need time to adjust. Last year was a crapshoot, this year there are quite a few fresh faces. They needed time, they started winning some games. If they find the groove, collectively, they can be a .500 team even without DD in the lineup.

It's got to be so hard on the coach to stay the course when the system is working in every way but scoring. Luckily the coach has more patience than me.... and 90% of LGK.

 

[triplcrown]

If the world knew the ugly truth -- that Todd puts ketchup on fish tacos -- his career would be over and done.

That is the only reason I can think of to fire him at this time.

It is pretty serious, though.

 

[Greg33]

Too much emphasis is placed on the coach's system. It's hardly ever about the coach's system.

It's really about how well the coach can convince his players to play that system.

Part of that would be holding players accountable. The nice guy doesn't do that. The a-hole like Sutter does.

Is it any coincidence the team is on a 3 game streak with Vilardi as the healthy scratch?

NO.

 

[santiclaws]

It's really about how well the coach can convince his players to play that system.

Part of that would be holding players accountable. The nice guy doesn't do that. The a-hole like Sutter does.

Is it any coincidence the team is on a 3 game streak with Vilardi as the healthy scratch?

NO.

Well, apparently he had them convinced to play his system well since they ARE and HAVE BEEN playing McLellan's system, and playing it very well before Vilardi's absence. But they're not scoring even though in a position to score and the goalies aren't stopping the puck (see two bad goals Quick let in yesterday). So yes, them winning three games in Vilardi's absence is almost entirely a coincidence. Or should the coach convince players to shoot at a higher percentage and convince the goalies to stop the pucks better?

Also, Vilardi is in COVID protocol, not a healthy scratch.

 

[STONE]

As a data scientist, I'm sold... I had no idea and cannot argue with these numbers. Thanks!

 

[Greg33]

Well, apparently he had them convinced to play his system well since they ARE and HAVE BEEN playing McLellan's system, and playing it very well before Vilardi's absence. But they're not scoring even though in a position to score and the goalies aren't stopping the puck (see two bad goals Quick let in yesterday). So yes, them winning three games in Vilardi's absence is almost entirely a coincidence. Or should the coach convince players to shoot at a higher percentage and convince the goalies to stop the pucks better?

Also, Vilardi is in COVID protocol, not a healthy scratch.

Oh really? The first game Vilardi was a healthy scratch because he was skating in the wrong color jersey the day before. Funny how that happens.

COVID will make you sad too.

Also, you mention the 2 bad goals Quick let in, and he did. Is there an advanced stat that somehow measures pucks that should have went in but were saved instead? I'm curious if he "officially" bailed them out more than 2 times

 

[AngelEyes]

this "fire the coach" stuff is absurd.

But oh . . . so . . . popular. (Very much like a certain brand of populist . . . . . . . cereal. :hat

 

[DryKing]

Oh really? The first game Vilardi was a healthy scratch because he was skating in the wrong color jersey the day before. Funny how that happens.

COVID will make you sad too.

Also, you mention the 2 bad goals Quick let in, and he did. Is there an advanced stat that somehow measures pucks that should have went in but were saved instead? I'm curious if he "officially" bailed them out more than 2 times

Good question and he for sure bailed them out more than twice. I counted 4 grade-A scoring chances that he robbed last night. Reference the GSAA below, Quick is +0.3 while Petersen is 12.28

https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2022_goalies.html

Goalie Stats Goalie Stats Goalie Stats Scoring
Rk Player Age Tm▲ GP GS W L T/O GA SA SV SV% GAA SO GPS MIN QS QS% RBS GA%- GSAA G A PTS PIM
28 Calvin Petersen 27 LAK 4 4 2 2 0 13 124 111 0.895 3.28 0 0.4 238 3 0.75 1 121 -2.28 0 0 0 0
29 Jonathan Quick 36 LAK 6 6 2 3 1 15 177 162 0.915 2.47 0 1 364 3 0.5 0 98 0.3 0 1 1 0

 

[santiclaws]

Oh really? The first game Vilardi was a healthy scratch because he was skating in the wrong color jersey the day before. Funny how that happens.

COVID will make you sad too.

Also, you mention the 2 bad goals Quick let in, and he did. Is there an advanced stat that somehow measures pucks that should have went in but were saved instead? I'm curious if he "officially" bailed them out more than 2 times

Yes, he was supposed to be a healthy scratch for one game, but since he's on protocol he hasn't been a healthy scratch, period. So your implication that the team is playing "better" because McLellan sat Vilardi for three games is simply not true.

There is no "official" stat for "pucks that should have went in" since that would be impossible to quantify, but there is an advanced stat for high danger scoring chances for and against, as I mentioned in my initial post although I have not looked for that stat on a per-game basis. That said, Quick must have done well in that stat yesterday because the Kings' save percentage against those high scoring chances went up, although it is still below league average for the season. But it is a goalie's job to bail out his team. That doesn't change the fact that two bad goals in a single game is a disaster and more often than not will cost the team a game, not only because two goals is a lot in an NHL game, but also because a bad goal has a very negative impact on team morale.

If you want to take a look at those advanced stats yourself, some of them are here:

https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/LAK/2022.html

 

[Rogie-Vachon]

I don't understand these charts.

Number 1: they look like those umpire strike zone charts
and
Number 2: they spelled offense & defense wrong :3smile:

 

[What party?]

I don't understand these charts.

Number 1: they look like those umpire strike zone charts
and
Number 2: they spelled offense & defense wrong :3smile:

Welp if it was a rorschach test I'd say I see a sad clown and b-cups, luckily it's not.

 

[Moog]

Welp if it was a rorschach test I'd say I see a sad clown and b-cups, luckily it's not.

Sad clown says keep mediocre coach.

 

[Jran]

I love all deese adranced stats and stuff...eeee haaaa!! so hows many wins does we have??

 

[What party?]

Sad clown says keep the boob.

ftfy

 

[Sevenhole]

There must 4 or 5 times every game when one of the forwards has an prime scoring oppurtunity and completely misses the net. Not even hitting the goalie. The inability to shoot the puck into the corners of the net is incomprehensible. Last night's game should have been 2 zip by half way through the first period. Not normally a stats geek but these numbers make sense for a team that just can't put the puck in the net

 

[DryKing]

Yes, he was supposed That said, Quick must have done well in that stat yesterday because the Kings' save percentage against those high scoring chances went up, although it is still below league average for the season. But it is a goalie's job to bail out his team. That doesn't change the fact that two bad goals in a single game is a disaster and more often than not will cost the team a game, not only because two goals is a lot in an NHL game, but also because a bad goal has a very negative impact on team morale.

Let's be honest here, though, the Kings are below average in that stat with Petersen in net. With Quick in net, so far this season, they are above average. Also it's every players job to bail out the team when needed, not just the goalie, and that includes reducing turnovers, winning face offs, blocking shots, forechecking, getting in passing lanes, winning 1:1 battles, clearing the puck, ensuring coverage is not blown, and bailing out the goalie when needed. When can harp on Quick letting in two goals that should have been saved (in theory) but one of those goals also had a defender in position who could have stopped the puck from going in (standing alone in the crease) but did not.

The simple fact is while improvement is possible, Quick had a great game last night.