Will there be a magic number thread this season?

[Busted Chops]

Seeing that the Kings have a strong chance of making the playoffs, I?m hoping someone can do a magic number thread. It?s been so long that I cannot even remember the logic or the method to run it.

Thanks in advance to anyone willing to take it on.

 

[jammer06]

I nominate Busted Chops!

I think Rosen was good about doing it on Insider, I don't remember if Dooley had taken it over while the Kings were still ever in the hunt. Near as I can tell though the two wild card spots are even or ahead of the Kings and edmonton is 4 points back with 1 game in hand. So of the remaining 30 available points for the kings their magic number at the moment is 28. They really don't have much cushion at the moment.

 

[santiclaws]

I nominate Busted Chops!

I think Rosen was good about doing it on Insider, I don't remember if Dooley had taken it over while the Kings were still ever in the hunt. Near as I can tell though the two wild card spots are even or ahead of the Kings and edmonton is 4 points back with 1 game in hand. So of the remaining 30 available points for the kings their magic number at the moment is 28. They really don't have much cushion at the moment.

If Edmonton passes them, they're still 3rd. Vegas is the real worry - they're five points back and the Kings have a game in hand.

 

[jammer06]

If Edmonton passes them, they're still 3rd. Vegas is the real worry - they're five points back and the Kings have a game in hand.

Good point, would that make their total 23 or 24? I can't remember if it's supposed to be a tie or one better.

 

[Nyssa42]

Trevor Rabone (the in-arena announcer) has been doing the magic numbers on twitter. It is now 24. I can't remember how it works....I just know that lower number = good.

https://twitter.com/TrevorRabone/status/1507947034627633156?s=20&t=26IqUK5hfBgM_MGPdPgFcg


Trevor Rabone
@TrevorRabone
?
Mar 26
The
@LAKings
Magic Number is now 24! #GoKingsGo

 

[HTK]

So if the kings get a win it counts as 2 points? And if the last team in the playoffs loses that?s two points?

so every time Vegas loses and the kings win that?s four points. I think.

Trevor Rabone (the in-arena announcer) has been doing the magic numbers on twitter. It is now 24. I can't remember how it works....I just know that lower number = good.

https://twitter.com/TrevorRabone/status/1507947034627633156?s=20&t=26IqUK5hfBgM_MGPdPgFcg


Trevor Rabone
@TrevorRabone
?
Mar 26
The
@LAKings
Magic Number is now 24! #GoKingsGo

 

[Russ]

sounds logical to me!

 

[Ice24]

The Kings to be even considered in a magic number run is incredible.

 

[Sevenhole]

I have always watched the sportsclubstats website to monitor playoff stats and percentages. Today they have the kings at 90.8 percent chance to make the playoffs. Knights are at 37.9 percent.

 

[orpheus]

There will be 3 magical numbers this season.

When the Kings make the playoffs. And when the Sharks and Ducks get eliminated from playoff qualification. mhihi: :ducksmash

 

[Pickle_Pucks]

I have always watched the sportsclubstats website to monitor playoff stats and percentages. Today they have the kings at 90.8 percent chance to make the playoffs. Knights are at 37.9 percent.

These numbers seems outrageously slanted. As things stand, considering games in hand it looks like the wild card spots are highly likely to come from the Central. So if the Kings lose 2 in a row and Vegas wins 2 in a row, everything is suddenly up for grabs, a coin flip at the end of the day.

Based on common sense and the "eye test" I put the Kings' chances at around 70-75% at the moment. But like I said, a 2 or 3 game slide and that number can drop dramatically. Thrilling playoff race at the end of the day.

 

[Helvetica]

These numbers seems outrageously slanted. As things stand, considering games in hand it looks like the wild card spots are highly likely to come from the Central. So if the Kings lose 2 in a row and Vegas wins 2 in a row, everything is suddenly up for grabs, a coin flip at the end of the day.

Based on common sense and the "eye test" I put the Kings' chances at around 70-75% at the moment. But like I said, a 2 or 3 game slide and that number can drop dramatically. Thrilling playoff race at the end of the day.

i think it's based, in part, on how each team has performed this season in terms of points share and the quality of the competition they are each facing down the stretch. Certainly a 2 win/2 loss situation could happen here, and that might change the landscape a bit, but the odds aren't looking at 2 game chunks. Kings are in a pretty good spot relative to Vegas right now, all things considered.

 

[Pickle_Pucks]

i think it's based, in part, on how each team has performed this season in terms of points share and the quality of the competition they are each facing down the stretch. Certainly a 2 win/2 loss situation could happen here, and that might change the landscape a bit, but the odds aren't looking at 2 game chunks. Kings are in a pretty good spot relative to Vegas right now, all things considered.

Agreed. And my estimate of 70-75% certainly equates to a "pretty good spot", but the computer model of 91% in my mind is ludicrous.

 

[VCRW]

This discussion is a positive, albeit premature, sign that the Kings have turned a significant corner in the rebuild. GKG!!!

 

[Clif]

This site tracks magic numbers: https://www.playoffmagic.com/nhl/division/

With a magic number at 24 against the Knights, Kings could go a poor 7-8 in their last games remaining (15) and Vegas could go a winning 9-5 in theirs (14) and it would still put the Kings ahead by a point.

I don’t understand how where the 90.8% chance comes from and like anyone else I won’t feel comfortable ‘til I see they clinched a spot in the division. But look at this way:

Kings have a .604 points percentage at 81/134 (earned/possible). Going 7-8 is only 14/30, good for .466.

Vegas is at .559 for a 76/136 spread. Getting 18 out of 28 points possible is .649, practically in Calgary territory. And it wouldn’t be good enough.

What are the odds, given the schedules for both teams remaining, that Kings go that bad and Vegas goes that good? I don’t know if it’s 91%. But Kings hold their fate in their own hands and Vegas doesn’t.

 

[santiclaws]

With a magic number at 24 against the Knights, Kings could go a poor 7-8 in their last games remaining (15) and Vegas could go a winning 9-5 in theirs (14) and it would still put the Kings ahead by a point.

I don’t understand how where the 90.8% chance comes from

You just explained where that 90.8% chance comes from. Given their .604 win percentage so far this season, it is very unlikely that the Kings will do worse than 7-8 (.466) over their last 15. Given their .559 so far this season, it is very unlikely that the Knights will do better than 9-5 (.600) over their last 14. There's your 91% chance.

 

[hokiecat]

Agreed. And my estimate of 70-75% certainly equates to a "pretty good spot", but the computer model of 91% in my mind is ludicrous.

No offense, but I trust a computer model running a Monte Carlo simulation of all the remaining games with weighting of each team's performance to date over your gut or my gut. The Athletic model has our odds at 88%.

The Kings would need to go 0-3-1 in their next 3 and Vegas 3-0-0 for them to be ahead of us. The Vegas part is possible since they are playing Seattle twice very soon. All the while, Edmonton/Dallas/Nashville would have to be passing us as well, playing .500 or better hockey. It just isn't very likely. I look at it like the Kings have a 10 point lead in a basketball game with 8 minutes to go. The odds are we are going to win. The score might get closer or even flip. But in the end the hot streaks and slumps will balance out and the Kings should still be in the lead.

Another way to look at it, is if the Kings play .500 hockey to get to 96 points, then Vegas needs to play .700 hockey to get 20 points out of their remaining 14 games. It is possible with the loser points system but still requires the cheats to play well. And it is a huge shame that Chicago choked the 3-0 lead or the Kings would really be sitting pretty. You had one job Hawks-- beat Vegas-- and you blew it!

 

[VCRW]

The nightmare of the Kings losing 13 straight to end the ‘03/‘04 season when they seemed to be a lock for the playoffs is still fresh in my mind. The Anson Carter debacle year… ugh…

Since then, the only magic number that I look at is 2 - those 2 points awarded for a win.

 

[Sevenhole]

No offense, but I trust a computer model running a Monte Carlo simulation of all the remaining games with weighting of each team's performance to date over your gut or my gut. The Athletic model has our odds at 88%.

The Kings would need to go 0-3-1 in their next 3 and Vegas 3-0-0 for them to be ahead of us. The Vegas part is possible since they are playing Seattle twice very soon. All the while, Edmonton/Dallas/Nashville would have to be passing us as well, playing .500 or better hockey. It just isn't very likely. I look at it like the Kings have a 10 point lead in a basketball game with 8 minutes to go. The odds are we are going to win. The score might get closer or even flip. But in the end the hot streaks and slumps will balance out and the Kings should still be in the lead.

Another way to look at it, is if the Kings play .500 hockey to get to 96 points, then Vegas needs to play .700 hockey to get 20 points out of their remaining 14 games. It is possible with the loser points system but still requires the cheats to play well. And it is a huge shame that Chicago choked the 3-0 lead or the Kings would really be sitting pretty. You had one job Hawks-- beat Vegas-- and you blew it!

The site I posted also runs thousands of season ending simulations for every team everyday. Comparing possible outcomes and basing those on estimates of how many points will be required to make it in. Has historically been very accurate, although as you say there can be huge swings over a couple games but it is the entire stretch of games that matter in the end

 

[Sevenhole]

The nightmare of the Kings losing 13 straight to end the ‘03/‘04 season when they seemed to be a lock for the playoffs is still fresh in my mind. The Anson Carter debacle year… ugh…

Since then, the only magic number that I look at is 2 - those 2 points awarded for a win.

You had to bring that dark streak back into my memory, need some meditation and yoga now