The lull is over; business is about to pick up in LA hockey circles.
Over the next 15 days, nearly every major Kings related decision heading into their 2024-25 campaign will be solved. Coming off a disappointing postseason performance, things have been largely quiet for much of the past six weeks. However, that’s about to change. And considering pressure is mounting for the organization to take a significant step toward being a Stanley Cup contender again, much of the work being laid now will ultimately determine just how close this group is to breaking out from the rest of the Pacific Division pack.
With Jim Hiller now officially hired as head coach, many are waiting to see what his next moves will be. How exactly will he change things up to create more offense, all while maintaining much of the team’s defensive-first identity?
Given the team’s salary cap situation — and there is quite a bit of money to play with, as outlined in detail here — this isn’t a situation of simply ‘rolling it back and trying the same things again’ for 2024-25.
Before people can competently predict how the team will fare next season, taking a look at the upcoming roster changes will be key. And it all begins with the starting goalie.
As noted the aforementioned article, we’ve heard there have been conversations regarding bringing Pheonix Copley back. That would be for the No. 3 spot, so he’d be targeted to start the year with AHL Ontario. David Rittich has already signed a one-year contract extension to return in the No. 2 slot, aka the 1B role.
Who will be the primary netminder in LA next season?
Getting the goalie right is a big piece of the overall puzzle. All signs point to either a trade or free agent signing, as prospect Erik Portillo is believed to still be a year away from becoming NHL ready — putting any notion of a Portillo-Rittich tandem to bed for now.
With that in mind, we’ve pulled together a list of seven viable candidates for the position.
To begin, let’s take a look at the top goaltenders from the 2023-24 regular season using data supplied by MoneyPuck.com. This chart was created using a minimum of 40 games played, a reasonable ask of a starting goalie.
Adding a ‘big name’ goalie to the Kings roster may sound intriguing enough, it just might not be that feasible. Not because the Kings won’t have interest, but more because there just aren’t that many 1A goalies expected to be made available this summer.
For example, Juuse Saros to LA sounds great and makes for a fun chatter on social media. However, with Nashville said to be focused on retaining their all-world goaltender, it’s not very realistic to think the Kings have more than about a 10% chance of landing him. For that reason, we’re not including him on our list below.
Meanwhile, Jacob Markstrom is expected to be moved out of Calgary soon. With a $6M AAV for two more seasons, a GM needs to believe that’s the goalie to help put his team over the edge. Further, there’s talk that the asking price for Markstrom will be higher if he’s traded to a Western Conference team. All of this also makes the likelihood of him landing in LA pretty low.
Once upon a time, Thatcher Demko was thought to be available out of Vancouver. With a $5M AAV (for two more years) and an injury situation that limited him to just one postseason start this year, there are currently more questions than answers surrounding the San Diego native. Besides, with the Canucks on the rise, would they really be willing to deal him to LA? This isn’t like when the Kings traded Tyler Toffoli to the Pacific Northwest; that was an LA team moving veteran players for draft picks and prospects.
Which leads us back to square one, who then?
The List to Target
Linus Ullmark
Yes, he’s the obvious name on the above chart. LA has shown interest in him this year and Boston is thought to be running with Jeremy Swayman moving forward — making the 30-year-old Ullmark, along with his $5M AAV, the perfect trade target. There’s just one rather pivotal piece to any potential deal, Ullmark holds a partial No Trade Clause (NTC). If the two sides can overcome that hurdle, adding Ulmark to the Kings roster would instantly improve their stock. He wasn’t only a Top 5 goalie this past season, he’s coming off five straight years of posting a .915 or better save percentage. What to do next with his contract largely depends on what he’s most interested in. If he agreed to come to LA and play himself to free agency next summer, it would be a gamble worth taking. Conversely, if it took an extension to get him to waive his NTC, that too is something Kings GM Rob Blake needs to sign up for. Ullmark is the class of this summer’s goalie crop and he can land him, he needs to do it. The cost would most likely be LA’s first round pick (No. 21) and a young player like Arthur Kaliyev. Boston is believed to be one of the teams most interested in defenseman Matt Roy. If a sign and trade can be worked into the package, that could significantly alter the true cost of the deal from a Kings perspective. That’s obviously a more complex deal to try and pull off over the next 10 days.
For the remainder of the six candidates, we’re going to list them in alphabetical order, rather tahn rank them as options two through seven.
Filip Gustavsson
Throughout the season, we published a series of article titled ‘Analytics Perspective’ that attempted to shed additional light on stats other than save percentage and goals against average. One of the primary focuses for netminders centered around the idea of Goals Above Expected. In other words, how much better was a goalie that he was expected to be? Elite goaltenders often shine here.
When it comes to Gustavsson, some are asking, which goalie is he? Is he the guy who put up a .931 save percentage or was his .899 more indicative of how the 26-year-old will perform moving forward?
Using the above chart as reference, seeing his name grouped alongside guys like Sarros and Andrei Vasilevsky adds some perspective to his 2023-24 campaign. Looking at his numbers in a vacuum may not be overly exciting. However, the thought of adding somebody who performed equal to some of the names around him would — at least on paper — seem to be a viable option for LA.
He’s signed for two more seasons at a very reasonable $3.75M per, both an AAV and term that should be appealing to the Kings. With Minnesota set with a pair of other netminders, Gustavsson will almost surely be moved this offseason. Considering Blake and Wild GM Bill Guerin have done business in the past, this might be an easier trade to make than others on the list.
John Gibson
He’s perhaps the most polarizing player on this list. How much does he have left? Will the Ducks finally trade him this summer, after entertaining the idea for a few years now. Sources say Gibson is ready to move on and the team could actually move him in the weeks ahead. Given how many times it’s been looked at and never gone down in the past, we’re a little skeptical. Even so, he’s proven to be rather elite in the past and would be a great option if it’s only a one-year commitment. However, Gibson is signed for three more years at a $6.4M AAV. Even if a deal involved the Ducks retaining $2M (unlikely), that’s still a pretty big bet on a 30-year-old goalie that’s been playing on a pretty bad team for the past 2-3 seasons. Don’t hold your breath on this one, though. The last time LA and Anaheim hooked up on a trade was more than 15 years ago when Sean O’Donnell was acquired at the 2008 NHL Draft.
Darcy Kuemper and Charlie Lindgren
We’re lumping these two together simply because they both play for the Capitals. Even though Washington would more likely want to move Kuemper’s $5.35M AAV for the next three years, we think the smarter play is actually targeting Lindgren. He could even be the silent sleeper in all of this. Yes, Kuemper won a Stanley Cup with the Avalanche just a few years ago. Yet, he’s a well traveled 34 years old — including a brief stop in LA during 2017-18. He also made just 33 appearances last season, so he won’t show up on the above chart of 40+ start netminders. Lindgren, meanwhile, is 30 years old and served a back-up/support goalie for Montreal and St. Louis before signing with Washington as a free agent in 2022. Critics will argue this past season was the first time he’s even made more than 31 starts in the NHL, so the body of work just isn’t there to know if he can carry the mail a second straight season or if this past year was just a one off. With a $1.1M AAV contract that expires next season, we like the idea of watching him play for what he hopes is a big extension next year. That mix of motivation, goals saved above expectation, and price tag looks awfully appealing.
Joonas Korpisalo
Hold on, hold on, hold on. Before skipping over this name, there’s an interesting angle. Ottawa is said to be looking to move Korpisalo. Fine. Straight up? No thanks. Now… if the Kings could work a package deal that includes defenseman Jakob Chychrun, now we’re talking. The latter is coming off a fully healthy season that saw him play all 82 games. Further, he’s in the final year of a contract with a very reasonable $4.6M AAV. He’s a left shot too. Adding Chychrun significantly upgrades the Kings defense. As for the goaltender… well, after posting a .913 save percentage with the Blue Jackets, followed by a .921 with the Kings during the regular season, he didn’t perform that well during the playoffs in 2023. The Kings didn’t lose that series because of Korpisalo. Could a tandem with Rittich be enough to help them next postseason? If Chychrun was back there on D, it certainly helps their chances. Again, this deal should only be considered if both players are coming to LA.
Alex Nedeljkovic
For brevity, we’re not going to spend a lot of time here. Nedeljkovic should be considered a logical candidate if the Penguins are prepared to trade him. LA as rumored to have interest in him previously, so that always helps. He’s 28 years old and will likely give a team around a .905 save percentage, based on past results. With only 38 starts last season, he just missed the ’40 game’ cutoff for the above chart. However, if we lower the minimum requirement, he’s the next player listed after Vasilevsky and Sarros (i.e. comparable to Gustavsson). Perhaps most attractive is he’s one of only two free agents on our list, thus the cost to acquire him is simply cap space, rather than other assets. His expiring contract was a one-year $1.5M deal with Pittsburgh.
Anthony Stolarz
And now things get interesting.
Stolarz showed a lot of promise while serving in a secondary role for the Ducks in 2021-22, producing a .922 save percentage in 28 starts. To many, he looked like a potential replacement for Gibson. Ultimately, Anaheim opted to keep Lukas Dostal instead. Last summer, Stolarz signed a one-year, $1.1M contract with Florida. If we adjust the MoneyPuck chart to include players who started only 27 games this year, look where he lands:
He’s expected to be a highly sought after player this summer. What type of contract will a team be willing to invest in Stolarz and could the Kings be an intriguing enough option for him?
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For brevity, we’re not going to spend a lot of time here. Nedeljkovic should be considered a logical candidate if the Penguins are prepared to trade him. LA as rumored to have interest in him previously, so that always helps. He’s 28 years old and will likely give a team around a .905 save percentage, based on past results. With only 38 starts last season, he just missed the ’40 game’ cutoff for the above chart. However, if we lower the minimum requirement, he’s the next player listed after Vasilevsky and Sarros (i.e. comparable to Gustavsson). Perhaps most attractive is he’s one of only two free agents on our list, thus the cost to acquire him is simply cap space, rather than other assets. His expiring contract was a one-year $1.5M deal with Pittsburgh.
Anthony Stolarz
And now things get interesting.
Stolarz showed a lot of promise while serving in a secondary role for the Ducks in 2021-22, producing a .922 save percentage in 28 starts. To many, he looked like a potential replacement for Gibson. Ultimately, Anaheim opted to keep Lukas Dostal instead. Last summer, Stolarz signed a one-year, $1.1M contract with Florida. If we adjust the MoneyPuck chart to include players who started only 27 games this year, look where he lands:
He’s expected to be a highly sought after player this summer. What type of contract will a team be willing to invest in Stolarz and could the Kings be an intriguing enough option for him?
RELATED CONTENT:
Follow @mayorNHL
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