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Things haven’t been easy for the Los Angeles Kings over the past two Stanley Cup Playoffs. Sure, they qualified for postseason play, yet the players and fans (as well as the entire organization) were hoping for more. In 2022, the team went all the way to Game 7 with Edmonton before bowing out to the Oilers, in a series LA could have won in Game 6 at home. Last year felt a little like history repeating itself, as the Kings again lost another first-round matchup to Edmonton; this time in six games.
Thus, it isn’t that surprising that some on social media have been dreading a Kings-Oilers meeting again this year.
After last night’s win against Chicago (coupled with the Vegas loss to Anaheim), LA solidified the third seed in the Pacific Division, meaning they will play the second-seed Oilers yet again in the first round.
Just 24 hours prior, we learned LA would not play Vancouver in the first round, and after Thursday’s final games, we knew they would not be playing Dallas from the second Wild Card spot either.
In this article, we’ll dive into the Kings’ records against these three possible teams they could have had a playoff series against and attempt to answer the question of whether they got the best matchup or not.
All advanced stats come from Natural Stat Trick.
Against Vancouver
The Kings went 3-0-1 against the Canucks this season, scoring 15 goals in four games and allowing eight. Their SV% versus Vancouver was .933 and they had a 65% GF%. This season series was not close.
Overall, the Kings are 16th in goals for in the NHL. Aside from their crazy stretch near the beginning of the season, they’ve had trouble scoring against quite a few teams, and finished the regular season middle of the pack, so scoring this much on the 109-point Canucks team is very impressive.
When it comes to more advanced stats, the Kings’ xGF% was only 37% against the Canucks. Their xGF/60 was 1.78, and their xGA/60 was 3. Their total xGF was just over seven, meaning the fact that they actually scored 15 goals is crazy. Remember, expected goals is a predictor of how many goals a team or player will score based on the quality of their shots. This implies there was probably some good luck involved in scoring eight more goals than expected.
The Kings’ Corsi For Percentage was a measly 38% against Vancouver. Remember that a CF% above 50% means more shot attempts for than against, and below 50% means more shot attempts against than for. So a CF% of 38% means the Kings were being dominated by the Canucks when it came to shot attempts.
Against Edmonton
The Kings went 1-2-1 against Edmonton, scoring nine times in four games, and allowing ten goals. Their SV% was an impressive .974 and they had a 47% GF%. This was a very hard-fought season series.
Looking at advanced stats in these games, the Kings’ xGF% was 49% against the Oilers. Their xGF/60 was 3.17, and they had 3.28 xGA/60. Both of these rates are higher against the Oilers than they are against the Canucks and Stars – meaning the Kings were both expected to score more goals yet also expected to be scored on more per 60 minutes by the Oilers than the Canucks or Stars.
Despite only scoring nine times against Edmonton, the Kings were expected to score nearly 13 times. And although they allowed ten goals, they were expected to allow over 13. This suggests that they were on the bad end of puck luck when it came to scoring goals, scoring less than expected, but on the good end when it came to saving goals, allowing less than expected.
Their CF% vs. Edmonton was much better than against Vancouver, at 49%. This means they were allowing slightly more shot attempts than they were taking, but it was a near-even split.
Against Dallas
The Kings performed worse against Dallas than either of the other two teams. They had a 0-3-0 record, only scored three goals, and allowed 13. They had a pathetic 19% GF%, and .859 SV% – ninth lowest in the NHL against Dallas.
Although the Kings only scored three times in three games against the Stars, they were expected to score eight. And despite allowing 13 goals, they were expected to allow just 8.2. They had an xGF% of 49% – meaning the season series should have been near a coin flip when it came to goal scoring.
Looking at shot attempts compared to Edmonton and Vancouver, the Kings had the best CF% against Dallas, at 51%. This means they were actually taking more shot attempts than they were allowing, but just had poor luck when it came to scoring.
The Easier Opponent
Although there isn’t a clear ‘easier’ opponent after looking at these numbers, Dallas has the lowest GA/60 when playing against LA (1 goal/60). So for every 60 minutes played, LA has scored the least goals against Dallas. Again, they should have — but didn’t — score more. Despite there not being an easier opponent, Dallas probably would have been the hardest due to their record against the Kings as well as being the highest-seeded team in the West.
The staggering difference in CF% and xGF% between the Oilers and Canucks suggests that, based on the regular season, the Kings might have actually played better hockey against the Oilers than the Canucks — another possible playoff partner up until Wednesday night, and a team the Kings seemed to handle with relative ease this season.
Something else to consider that cannot be summed up in numbers is the history of the teams. Everybody knows what happened the last time the Oilers and Kings faced off in a playoff series, and most of the rosters from that series are still intact.
It cannot be known if the recent playoff history will help or hurt the Kings in a third-year straight against Edmonton, but perhaps the law of averages would swing back in LA’s favor. And what should give the 2023-24 Kings at least some confidence is that their team is better on paper — and healthier — than in years past.
Perhaps they can use the history with Edmonton to their advantage and come in for revenge. Although they did seem to figure out how to win against Vancouver, they did not do so with Dallas. So, while they may have come in to a series against Vancouver with more confidence, the emotions they will bring into the series against Edmonton may be used to their advantage.
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