Last summer, the Kings re-signed defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov to a two-year, $11.75 million deal after originally acquiring him via a trade with the Columbus Blue Jackets; a move that also saw franchise legend Jonathan Quick leave Los Angeles.
A native of Russia, Gavrikov was sixth-round draft pick of the Blue Jackets in 2015. Now with the Kings, he’s averaging nearly 21 minutes this season and has most often been playing on the team’s second defensive pairing with Matt Roy. The 28-year-old is currently on pace for 24 points, which would be his second most; sitting only behind a 33-point campaign in 2021-22 with Columbus.
Let’s dig into some analytics and attempt to investigate how Gavrikov has been contributing during his time with LA.
In our last article, we looked at team heatmaps and explained why shots from closer to the net are considerably more dangerous than those farther away.
With that in mind, we’ll begin by examining two heatmaps from hockeyviz. These visual aids are slightly different than the ones used last week, so let’s first break down exactly what everything means.
First, the context of each heatmap is unique, in that one shows the Kings defense with Gavrikov on the ice, and the other without. This will help us determine how Gavrikov being on or off the ice affects the team’s performance.
Shown below is the Kings defensive zone with colored areas indicating whether opponents are taking more (red) or less (blue) shots per 60 minutes from that respective area compared to the league average.
Further, the darker the shading, the more extreme (see the key on the right side). In this case, blue is good and means Gavrikov is effectively defending and preventing shots from that area.
Now, let’s look at where Gavrikov is allowing shots to come from on the ice. With the big defender out for a shift, the Kings allow more shots to come from the middle of the ice, extending from the high slot to the blue line. Without him playing, they do a good job occupying this space.
When Gavrikov is on the ice however, the Kings do a much better job preventing shots from directly in front of the net — illustrated by the dark blue circle around the net. This area is much more valuable real estate (as we’ve discussed in previous articles), so to be able to prevent shots from this location, even while sacrificing potential shots from elsewhere, is very good. Not as good as preventing shots from everywhere on the ice, but even the best have a hard time with that (Check out this heatmap of Ryan McDonagh).
Also shown in the shot chart is the Expected Goals Against rate (per 60 minutes) when Gavrikov is on or off the ice. This rate doesn’t change when he steps on or off the ice, which means that he isn’t contributing any more or any less than the rest of the team as a whole.
Gavrikov’s partner, Matt Roy is also contributing here, as defense is not a one-man job. His heatmaps on and off the ice look very similar to Gavrikov’s which is somewhat to be expected.
Where Gavrikov and the Kings have excelled this year is the penalty kill. Let’s see what the PK looks like with and without No. 84.
The difference between having Gavrikov on the kill and not is rather stunning. He is taking up even more space in the slot and forcing shots from farther away when the Kings are on the PK. With Gavrikov on the kill, the xGA/60 is two percent below league average, while it is seven percent above without him.
Once again, Matt Roy has very similar looking heatmaps, hovering around one percent above league average in xGA/60 when on the kill. This indicates that, when it comes to defensemen, Gavrikov is primarily the one helping drive the Kings on the PK.
It’s safe to say Gavrikov is a big contributor to this year’s team-defense and has proven himself to be well worth his contract. Analytics show he pairs extremely well with Roy, and they have done an excellent job on the Kings first penalty kill unit. It will be interesting to see how — if at all — Gavrikov’s play changes should Roy eventually depart via free agency this summer.
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