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By now, there’s already been a ton written about the end of LA’s 2023-24 season. Getting bounced in Round 1 for the third consecutive year wasn’t what anybody was thinking about back during training camp in September.
With the body of a full season’s work now completed, how did the Kings fare in different statistical categories?
We’ll wrap up this year’s analytics-based series with a look at various stats, breaking down and recapping several positive and concerning trends.
It’s clear from these stats that the Kings played a very good defensive game all year — as highlighted by the rows in green. Placing top five in GA/60, CA/60, and SV% is no easy feat. Their penalty kill was one of the best in the league during the regular season. And despite a coaching change in mid-February, they were able to collectively maintain their defensive prowess over the course of 82 games.
This is even something GM Rob Blake referenced multiple times during his end of season media availability on Monday.
So, what went wrong then?
Put simply, the Kings were not outscoring their opponents enough.
They lost 12 games by a one-goal margin (not including shootouts), and an additional 10 games by a two-goal margin. Below is a visual of the Kings’ shot rates by situation. This chart measures xG, so it indicates how likely a shot taken by an LA player was to converting into a goal. Red means they are taking more shots than league average xG/60, and blue means less.
It’s clear that when losing, the Kings did a great job taking dangerous shots; yet when leading in games, the Kings took less dangerous shots. Essentially, when they had the lead, they let up on offense. Unfortunately, they didn’t make up for it on defense.
When down by one goal, they allowed 13% xG less than league average, which is great. However, when up a goal they allowed 12% xG less than league average. They actually played a slightly less defensive game when protecting a one-goal lead than they did down a goal. In fairness, though, the margin here is slim.
Bigger picture, although their defense was all-around great, they were not protecting their leads as well as they could have and therefore ended up losing by small margins quite often.
They’ll need more offensive output next season and a more aggressive offensive approach.
Now, let’s turn to some individual stats.
Although three players on the team scored 70+ points (Adrian Kempe 75, Kevin Fiala 73, Anze Kopitar 70), there were some who underperformed — or perhaps did not have a chance to perform — as well as needed.
PL Dubois only scored 40 points; a career low other than the shortened 2020-21 season. From the front office to fans in the arena, nearly everybody was counting on greater output after the 25-year-old forward was acquired last summer from Winnipeg.
Sitting out all but 18 games of the regular season due to injury, Viktor Arvidsson was perhaps the biggest missing ingredient from LA’s offensive attack. Although he recorded 15 points in those 18 games, his absence in the lineup was noticeable. One of the few right shot forwards with high-end skill, Arvidsson has proven to be a real difference-maker for the Kings when healthy. In 18 games, Evolving-Hockey says that he contributed 0.8 points to the standings (read more about SPAR here). Applying this number to a full 82 games, Arvidsson would have contributed 3.6 points to the standings. If things went a little bit differently, the Kings could have had a better position in the Pacific Division.
Following up on what Blake was saying earlier this week, it appears the short-term direction is for the Kings to stick with their defensive game, while focusing more attention on the offense this summer. Protecting small leads and expanding their scoring margins would be a few of the possible strategies. Because there isn’t just one, or even two, solutions to help the Kings take the next step forward, several individual players will need to raise their level of play to help the team achieve greater success in 2024-25.
Of course, it will be a different roster too, and that does make a difference. How will the Kings look next season with prospects like Brandt Clarke, Alex Turcotte, and Akil Thomas inserted into the lineup? What will that do to the line combinations, defensive pairings, and power play alignment? There will be additional roster options to consider, as well. Will they add a forward and/or blueline help via trade or free agency? Such moves will also have an impact on individual and team numbers.
It’s not even May 15 yet. Meaning it’s far too early to evaluate next year’s roster and what potential success it may or may not be set up for. We’ll need to wait until mid-July — after much of the roster tweaking has settled (and a head coach is announced) — to dive in a little deeper.
The offseason is just getting underway in LA!
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