Kings forward Adrian Kempe has yet to sign a contract extension, and he’s been eligible to do so since July 1. Thus, what’s the proper level of concern for fans, management, and all involved?
As we approach the four-month anniversary of that date in just a few weeks, there appears to be good news. On a recent Kings Of The Podcast episode, Mayor’s Manor founder John Hoven reported he believes the deal is done in principle and it’s only the final details (i.e. how much is paid out in base salary vs. signing bonus) that are being worked out with the various lawyers.
Let’s get deeper into it, though — taking a look at things like: what’s the likely cap hit, what’s taking so long, who are the folks involved in all of this, and more.
Key People Involved
For his part, Kempe has been rather chill about the entire process when speaking publicly regarding a potential extension in Los Angeles. For example, during an NHL Radio interview conducted just prior to the start of training camp, the 29-year-old winger said:
That interview also included comments about roster additions made by Kings GM Ken Holland over the summer, LA signing a pest like Corey Perry, playoff expectations this season, and much more. It’s worth a listen, with both written transcription and full audio available here. The audio also features bonus comments about a few of his teammates too — including one rather funny story. Don’t miss it.
Now, back to the contract talk…
Holland has been taking a little heat from some Kings fans online for what people perceive as prolonged talks with Kempe. While a deal certainly could have been signed by now, it’s at least worth pointing out that a contract of this size typically requires sign off by ownership.
Generally speaking, NHL teams like the Kings typically operate with a one-, two-, or three-year budget. This often gives the GM and other executives latitude to run the business side of a hockey club on a day-to-day basis. When it comes to contracts specifically, many GMs can freely sign players to shorter term deals, as they’ll tuck up nicely under the salary cap. When it comes to contracts the size and magnitude of Kempe’s, though, Holland will almost certainly need clearance from Dan Beckerman (AEG President) and AEG ownership. So, it’s not simply Holland involved in the negotiations.
There’s also somebody like Jake Goldberg, Sr. Director of Hockey Operations, who will work directly with J.P. Barry (Kempe’s main agent) and other people from CAA Hockey (Kempe’s agency). While Holland may be responsible for things like AAV and contract term, it’s often Goldberg who irons out details like no-trade clauses, signing bonuses, etc. Several years ago, Goldberg took over this role after Jeff Solomon departed the Kings organization.
The Main Contract Components
From a big-picture perspective, any conversation related to a Kempe extension basically come down to two simple things: AAV (i.e. the cap hit) and term (how long LA will have him under contract).
Kempe is currently in the final year of a four-year contract that carries an AAV of $5.5 million. It was considered good value when then-GM Rob Blake signed him to that contract in July 2022. The optics of said deal have only improved over time. That summer, Kempe was coming off a career-year of 35 goals — more than double his best output in any previous NHL season. Over the three full seasons since signing that deal, he’s topped that goal mark once (scoring 41 in 2022-23) and matched it last season.
With 196 career goals in 634 NHL regular season games, Kempe has a .31 goals per game (GPG) average.
Over the past three seasons, which should be more indictive of his performance over the next five years, Kempe has seen his average improve to .43 GPG.
Some have asked how Connor McDavid taking less than market value might impact the Kempe negotiations. It really shouldn’t. For starters, the Oilers captain is a center. Typically, centers get paid more than wingers in the NHL. Yes, there are exceptions; absolutely. Regardless, comparing the best player in the world — who also happens to be a center — to Kempe is a bit of a fool’s errand.
What about Kirill Kaprizov? He’s a winger, and he’s 28 years old. In the ballpark? Not really, Kaprizov has a GPG of .59 in his career and has scored 40+ goals three times. Plus, he was on pace for 50 goals before being hurt mid-season last year.
So, what would be some better comps to look at for Kempe?
Reviewing NHL stats since 2021, when he had his breakout season, Kempe ranks 20th in overall goals scored. Statistically, he compares to Filip Forsberg, Steven Stamkos, Mark Scheifele, and Jake Guentzel. The timing of when those guys signed their latest contracts really matters in a world where the cap has gone up substantially and expected to rise again in each of the next two seasons.
This is where Winnipeg’s Kyle Connor makes the most sense as a comparable. He’s virtually the same age as Kempe (just three months younger) and they’ve played almost the same number of NHL games. Over the past three years, Kempe’s .43 GPG compares favorably to Connor’s .46 GPG. Thus, both wingers have pretty close numbers in two of the major components used in a comp, age and production.
Connor recently signed an eight-year deal carrying a $12M AAV.
What about some of the other metrics? Here’s a quick look at data cards for Connor and Kempe produced by JFresh and Advanced Hockey Stats:
The Kempe comp to Connor works on multiple levels.
Hoven previously earmarked a Kempe extension in LA at about $11.5M AAV. On that most recent KOTP linked above, he said that sources have indicated the new contract has been agreed to in principle, with the final details being worked out. He believes the deal will come in with an AAV of around $11.2M, plus or minus $200K. For term, it’s expected to be for either seven or eight years.
If that’s the case, it looks to be another pretty fair deal for both sides. And one that could age quite nicely for the Kings if Kempe continues to find the back of the net moving forward.
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