Marner Watch

[DoubleMinor]

Does everyone think Marner’s going to get something like $15 million? I’m not sure about that. I get that he’s the best of a weak free agent class & the cap is going up. But the top 3 salaries right now are Matthews at $13.25 million, MacKinnon at $12.6 million, & McDavid at $12.5 million. He might get a little more than that but not much more. Maybe $14 million at the most. Or he could get within that range, idk.

I think we are going to find out what the rather significant increase in the salary cap means to actual salaries.
It’s not just that the cap is going up. It’s that it is going up over the next few years. And it’s not just incrementally going up.

I noted a bit ago that I think it’s going to take some time for us fans to get accustomed to the new pay levels. I suspect the $5M a year contracts will quickly become 7-8M. What that means for the highest earners is they will most assuredly get a lot more.

How it all plays out is beyond me. One thing to consider is the value of current contracts for guys like Danault and Moore. Those are very cap friendly deals. I hear talk of either or both being trade bait. And maybe their contracts help increase their value on the market. But those suddenly look like real bargains for the team.

One thing I’m not certain of (and have been too lazy to look into) is whether the cap floor is also going up. I would hope and think so. I can see players on bad contracts getting traded more easily, and almost immediately think of EDM being able to shed the Nurse contract.
Will the older players who sign for the minimum see an increase? Will a veteran still only get offers for a million or less?

I doubt Marner gets 15M. But someone will reach that level in the next year or two. And I honestly don’t think 20M a year is that far off.
A higher cap means higher salaries, especially for the top players.

 

[Statue4Deano]

Does everyone think Marner’s going to get something like $15 million? I’m not sure about that. I get that he’s the best of a weak free agent class & the cap is going up. But the top 3 salaries right now are Matthews at $13.25 million, MacKinnon at $12.6 million, & McDavid at $12.5 million. He might get a little more than that but not much more. Maybe $14 million at the most. Or he could get within that range, idk.

I expect $14M AAV x 7 (98M total). Rantanen just signed a $12M X 8 (96M total) extension in a state with no income tax. That’s equivalent to about $13.5M in LA. Round that up because several other teams will have offers and $14M feels right to me.

 

[DoubleMinor]

It's interesting to think about. We have Utah who seems ready to make the playoffs next season and looks to be a contender within the next 2-3 seasons (they have more solid prospects to bring up who look like playoff performers). Anaheim also is getting closer and likely a couple seasons behind Utah, along with San Jose. What this means is if the Kings are going to make a deep run their best change in doing so in within the next 2 seasons. When you look at it with that type of urgency, more than minor tweaks are needed.

I foresee the Kings attempting to go all-in this off season, and Marner would be one of the best possible outcome. Let's face it, he's a top 5 wing in the league and those are hard to come by. Sure he has his question marks, but a playoff team in the West picking him up would reduce the Kings chances during their prime window (the next two seasons) and possibly make a rebuild look more attractive

IF I could go back and edit my post I would be inclined to switch the word “desperate” to “sensible”.
I think I’m uncomfortable to a degree with the “strike now” frame because of the potential ripple effects.

I think it’s mandatory to lock up Kempe for the longest term possible. (Not sure if I’m in the minority here but this guy is a key moving forward—brings it every night, plays the entire game, produces when it matters…).
It’s also pretty vital to keep Gavrikov. I think it’s really important to keep Laffy.

The cap space is there moving forward beyond this next year for a big contract. But it isn’t necessarily there this next year.
My concern is sacrificing any of these three players to get that one guy, no matter how good he might look.

Marner is the top tier free agent. In fact I don’t think there are any others in that tier. Yep, Bennet would he a good addition, but he’s not elite. I just don’t see anyone else like him.

I think your points about the rapidly improving division are wise. That is definitely something to factor in a big way. But I also believe the Kings window is much bigger than 2-3 years. That’s why Kempe, Gavy & Laffy are important retentions.

We all have our feelings about what we want to see happen. I’d take Marner (with some reservations) but I also think there are other “sensible” ways to improve this team.
I guess my point is that I’m hopeful that the Kings make the right move (or moves).

Good and interesting comments about this from you and others.

 

[DryKing]

IF I could go back and edit my post I would be inclined to switch the word “desperate” to “sensible”.
I think I’m uncomfortable to a degree with the “strike now” frame because of the potential ripple effects.

I think it’s mandatory to lock up Kempe for the longest term possible. (Not sure if I’m in the minority here but this guy is a key moving forward—brings it every night, plays the entire game, produces when it matters…).
It’s also pretty vital to keep Gavrikov. I think it’s really important to keep Laffy.

The cap space is there moving forward beyond this next year for a big contract. But it isn’t necessarily there this next year.
My concern is sacrificing any of these three players to get that one guy, no matter how good he might look.

Marner is the top tier free agent. In fact I don’t think there are any others in that tier. Yep, Bennet would he a good addition, but he’s not elite. I just don’t see anyone else like him.

I think your points about the rapidly improving division are wise. That is definitely something to factor in a big way. But I also believe the Kings window is much bigger than 2-3 years. That’s why Kempe, Gavy & Laffy are important retentions.

We all have our feelings about what we want to see happen. I’d take Marner (with some reservations) but I also think there are other “sensible” ways to improve this team.
I guess my point is that I’m hopeful that the Kings make the right move (or moves).

Good and interesting comments about this from you and others.

I agree, I would prefer to see the Kings continue to build for the long-term, rather than short-term. Depending on which path the Organization chooses will determine our ultimate window (keeping in mind the next 2-3 would be the prime window right now based on the team/contract composition and opposition).

Ultimately what I would like to see is the Kings focus on rebuilding their prospect pool (through draft picks and trades) and make sensible (great word choice) trades for the now.

To me, though, sensible still includes going all in on Marner (but not at over $14m AAV). Sure you spend the money in the process, but you are not giving up other assets in the process. One could argue that equates to giving up Gav, but I expect Gav to become grossly overpaid (by another team) this summer.

That would still leave money for Kempe and Laffy (both of which I agree should be top priority).

What we need to avoid at all costs, to your point, is another PLD trade where the Organization gets so hyper-focused on one player that they take a high amount of risk in the process on top of giving up way too much to acquire said player.

 

[hokiecat]

I agree, I would prefer to see the Kings continue to build for the long-term, rather than short-term. Depending on which path the Organization chooses will determine our ultimate window (keeping in mind the next 2-3 would be the prime window right now based on the team/contract composition and opposition).

Ultimately what I would like to see is the Kings focus on rebuilding their prospect pool (through draft picks and trades) and make sensible (great word choice) trades for the now.

To me, though, sensible still includes going all in on Marner (but not at over $14m AAV). Sure you spend the money in the process, but you are not giving up other assets in the process. One could argue that equates to giving up Gav, but I expect Gav to become grossly overpaid (by another team) this summer.

That would still leave money for Kempe and Laffy (both of which I agree should be top priority).

What we need to avoid at all costs, to your point, is another PLD trade where the Organization gets so hyper-focused on one player that they take a high amount of risk in the process on top of giving up way too much to acquire said player.

I'd like to see us do what Carolina seems to do all the time-- rip off the teams which have messed themselves up with the cap. Dallas, trade us Robertson. Or Marchment for cheap. I don't want to make hockey trades for these guys, I want discounts. Or Necas in Colorado. He's a righty and they are fairly capped out. If the Kings can get him and extend him, that would set us up nicely with a still young core. It makes sense to Holland to sniff around the Rangers and Vegas too. A great scenario would be the Knights getting Marner and then having to dump guys like Barbashev for cheap. The only downside is they probably wouldn't want to trade in the division.

 

[DoubleMinor]

I'd like to see us do what Carolina seems to do all the time-- rip off the teams which have messed themselves up with the cap. Dallas, trade us Robertson. Or Marchment for cheap. I don't want to make hockey trades for these guys, I want discounts. Or Necas in Colorado. He's a righty and they are fairly capped out. If the Kings can get him and extend him, that would set us up nicely with a still young core. It makes sense to Holland to sniff around the Rangers and Vegas too. A great scenario would be the Knights getting Marner and then having to dump guys like Barbashev for cheap. The only downside is they probably wouldn't want to trade in the division.

Sound reasoning.
I don’t know that Marchment interests me. Doesn’t look like a good fit. And Robertson seems to shy away from the playoff style.
But the idea of Necas has a lot of appeal. As does Barbashev. I think you’re right that trades within the division make those guys unlikely.

 

[Dr. Tran]

I think we are going to find out what the rather significant increase in the salary cap means to actual salaries.
It’s not just that the cap is going up. It’s that it is going up over the next few years. And it’s not just incrementally going up.

I noted a bit ago that I think it’s going to take some time for us fans to get accustomed to the new pay levels. I suspect the $5M a year contracts will quickly become 7-8M. What that means for the highest earners is they will most assuredly get a lot more.

How it all plays out is beyond me. One thing to consider is the value of current contracts for guys like Danault and Moore. Those are very cap friendly deals. I hear talk of either or both being trade bait. And maybe their contracts help increase their value on the market. But those suddenly look like real bargains for the team.

One thing I’m not certain of (and have been too lazy to look into) is whether the cap floor is also going up. I would hope and think so. I can see players on bad contracts getting traded more easily, and almost immediately think of EDM being able to shed the Nurse contract.
Will the older players who sign for the minimum see an increase? Will a veteran still only get offers for a million or less?

I doubt Marner gets 15M. But someone will reach that level in the next year or two. And I honestly don’t think 20M a year is that far off.
A higher cap means higher salaries, especially for the top players.

The floor is going up to $70.6 million. As far as getting $15 million, McDavid easily. He’s a UFA after next year. $20 million this next contract might be too soon, even if he’s worth that amount.

Do you know what’s weird? We talk about how much the salary cap is going to increase. But look at how much it already has increased. Since the start of the salary cap in 05-06, the cap has gone from $39 million that year to $88 million this year. But salaries haven’t really gone that far up. I remember Bobby Holik signing for $9 million with the Rangers back in 2002. It’s now 2025 & the highest AAV is Matthews at $13.25 million. If the past indicates the future, I don’t know if salaries will go up as high or as fast as we think.

 

[DryKing]

Sound reasoning.
I don’t know that Marchment interests me. Doesn’t look like a good fit. And Robertson seems to shy away from the playoff style.
But the idea of Necas has a lot of appeal. As does Barbashev. I think you’re right that trades within the division make those guys unlikely.

That would be great if we could pick up Necas in the future, but I think the asking price will be high (whether via trade or free agency). He's make an excellent King, though.

It's also interesting to think that Necas + Barbashev would have a higher annual cost than Marner, and combined would yield a little higher production that Marner alone while taking up two roster spots. This is why I still think investing in a player like Marner, who is truly top tier, is the way to go.

 

[jammer06]

The floor is going up to $70.6 million. As far as getting $15 million, McDavid easily. He’s a UFA after next year. $20 million this next contract might be too soon, even if he’s worth that amount.

Do you know what’s weird? We talk about how much the salary cap is going to increase. But look at how much it already has increased. Since the start of the salary cap in 05-06, the cap has gone from $39 million that year to $88 million this year. But salaries haven’t really gone that far up. I remember Bobby Holik signing for $9 million with the Rangers back in 2002. It’s now 2025 & the highest AAV is Matthews at $13.25 million. If the past indicates the future, I don’t know if salaries will go up as high or as fast as we think.

Before the cap jagr was reportedly over 15/year

 

[hokiecat]

That would be great if we could pick up Necas in the future, but I think the asking price will be high (whether via trade or free agency). He's make an excellent King, though.

It's also interesting to think that Necas + Barbashev would have a higher annual cost than Marner, and combined would yield a little higher production that Marner alone while taking up two roster spots. This is why I still think investing in a player like Marner, who is truly top tier, is the way to go.

Except Marner has the rep of a playoff choker. On NHL radio yesterday morning, they were asking if people would rather want Marner at 14 or Bennett at ~9. Everyone respected Marner as being the better player but having a playoff performer and a good 3rd liner for the same cap space is probably better for the playoffs.

IMO, there's a lot of risk in picking up Marner for a McDavid level salary. He could be the missing piece the Kings need but he could also be Huberdeuu 2.0. I'd be wary of payin guys who aren't goal scorers superstar salaries. He could be the next Giroux or Huberdeau or or Backstrom or Wheeler.

 

[DryKing]

Except Marner has the rep of a playoff choker. On NHL radio yesterday morning, they were asking if people would rather want Marner at 14 or Bennett at ~9. Everyone respected Marner as being the better player but having a playoff performer and a good 3rd liner for the same cap space is probably better for the playoffs.

IMO, there's a lot of risk in picking up Marner for a McDavid level salary. He could be the missing piece the Kings need but he could also be Huberdeuu 2.0. I'd be wary of payin guys who aren't goal scorers superstar salaries. He could be the next Giroux or Huberdeau or or Backstrom or Wheeler.

Fair points and I agree. If the Kings had any reasonable shot at signing Bennett I would be all in for it, but we know they don't. To be fair, though, Bennett at $9m AAV comes with his own fair share of risks and he has been fantastic for one team and mediocre for another so far in his NHL career.

I would say Marner should be worth less than Rantanen, but being that he is a FA, and with the increase in the salary cap, it drives the price up. We also do not know how he will perform on a team which is not Toronto. To me, I would rather take a risk on salary (knowing, at worst, you could always retain a portion and trade him) than give up assets to trade for a player knowing we will likely need to sign them to a large contract increase to extend.

Someone like Necas, for instance, looks like a solid option but if we were to trade for him - how much is he going to want to resign or will he absolutely want to go to free agency to choose his destination? If he extends with us, likely we give us less from a salary perspective, but quite a bit more in terms of assets under contract and/or picks/prospects. Robertson is the same scenerio. Personally I don't think either will ever rise to the level of Marner.

 

[Statue4Deano]

IMO, there's a lot of risk in picking up Marner for a McDavid level salary. He could be the missing piece the Kings need but he could also be Huberdeuu 2.0. I'd be wary of payin guys who aren't goal scorers superstar salaries. He could be the next Giroux or Huberdeau or or Backstrom or Wheeler.

All valid concerns. I don’t think there’s too much to worry about re: Marner becoming Huberdeau. Hubreau has always been a scorer only and his 115 point season was an outlier.

Marner is a 200 ft player. He’s an elite defensive winger. He’s received Selke votes every season for the last 7 years. He finished 3rd in Selke votes in 22-23. Compare that to our beloved 200 ft. winger Adrian Kempe. Kempe’s had 0 Selke votes in his career. And Marner plays with that much attention to detail on defense while scoring 100+ points 1x, 90+ points 3x and 85 points 1x.

 

[Clif]

Fair points and I agree. If the Kings had any reasonable shot at signing Bennett I would be all in for it, but we know they don't. To be fair, though, Bennett at $9m AAV comes with his own fair share of risks and he has been fantastic for one team and mediocre for another so far in his NHL career.

I would say Marner should be worth less than Rantanen, but being that he is a FA, and with the increase in the salary cap, it drives the price up. We also do not know how he will perform on a team which is not Toronto. To me, I would rather take a risk on salary (knowing, at worst, you could always retain a portion and trade him) than give up assets to trade for a player knowing we will likely need to sign them to a large contract increase to extend.

Someone like Necas, for instance, looks like a solid option but if we were to trade for him - how much is he going to want to resign or will he absolutely want to go to free agency to choose his destination? If he extends with us, likely we give us less from a salary perspective, but quite a bit more in terms of assets under contract and/or picks/prospects. Robertson is the same scenerio. Personally I don't think either will ever rise to the level of Marner.

The PLD contract was crippling for what the team was getting out of the player, but the biggest problem with the trade is that it cost Vilardi and Durzi. It’s valid to worry Marner won’t achieve the point totals here he did in TOR, but you raise a good point that the risk in that for a Free Agent is a different story from a trade.

All valid concerns. I don’t think there’s too much to worry about re: Marner becoming Huberdeau. Hubreau has always been a scorer only and his 115 point season was an outlier.

Marner is a 200 ft player. He’s an elite defensive winger. He’s received Selke votes every season for the last 7 years. He finished 3rd in Selke votes in 22-23. Compare that to our beloved 200 ft. winger Adrian Kempe. Kempe’s had 0 Selke votes in his career. And Marner plays with that much attention to detail on defense while scoring 100+ points 1x, 90+ points 3x and 85 points 1x.

Why I don’t worry about a decreased point total. Playing with Kempe or Fiala I also wouldn’t expect a Calgary Huberdeau level drop off.

 

[Statue4Deano]

Mitch Marner NHL free-agency tiers: How hard should each team pursue the star UFA?

We tier teams based on how our staff thinks each club should go about pursuing one of the biggest UFAs to hit the market in years.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Halfwall]

Mitch Marner NHL free-agency tiers: How hard should each team pursue the star UFA?

We tier teams based on how our staff thinks each club should go about pursuing one of the biggest UFAs to hit the market in years.

www.nytimes.com

View attachment 12196

Top-end firepower from forwards is not the Kings problem. Zero offense and a big shot from the blue line is the issue and if they don't fix that there will be no round 2 next year as well.

 

[DoubleMinor]

Top-end firepower from forwards is not the Kings problem. Zero offense and a big shot from the blue line is the issue and if they don't fix that there will be no round 2 next year as well.

Who should they target to get the big shot from the blue line?

 

[jammer06]

Some old news:

Report: Toronto Maple Leafs discussed three-team deal involving Mitch Marner to Vegas at deadline | TSN

As the Mitch Marner free-agent sweepstakes get set to heat up later this month, James Mirtle of The Athletic reports the Vegas Golden Knights were involved in talks to acquire the winger at the trade deadline.

www.tsn.ca

Presumably the notable thing being Marner wouldn't waive his no trade to go to Carolina. Note that he wouldn't waive during the season because his wife was preggers was a huge narrative and part of the big backlash of the Toronto fandom. Maybe now that the child has arrived all prior waivers are moot.

The Star has a paywalled article up of their analysis:

Where will Mitch Marner sign? Here’s where the Maple Leafs star could end up, and how he’d fit in

Marner will make any NHL team better, but which one is going to win his services? Here are a handful of possible teams and how he would fit.

www.thestar.com

From Yahoo/Hockey news more in the direction of the Kings:

Could Mitch Marner Be the Missing Piece for the Kings? Exploring a Blockbuster Fit After Another Leafs Letdown

Another spring, another Toronto heartbreak.

sports.yahoo.com

Note this is one of the more delusional articles out there in pretty much every aspect of how this might work. Or very terribly premised/written to discuss a sign and trade without mentioning it.

 

[McSorleyFan]

Note this is one of the more delusional articles out there in pretty much every aspect of how this might work. Or very terribly premised/written to discuss a sign and trade without mentioning it.

Delusional indeed. QB or Clarke for rights to Marner? Pffft. Kings are looking for pieces to fit into their current roster and those 2 guys are a part of it. Maybe draft picks and non-roster players going the other way. Maybe a roster player off the 3rd or 4th line, or 5th/6th D pairing (Leafs don't need that). Or if writing is on the wall swap rights of Gavy for Marner's.

 

[DoubleMinor]

Delusional indeed. QB or Clarke for rights to Marner? Pffft. Kings are looking for pieces to fit into their current roster and those 2 guys are a part of it. Maybe draft picks and non-roster players going the other way. Maybe a roster player off the 3rd or 4th line, or 5th/6th D pairing (Leafs don't need that). Or if writing is on the wall swap rights of Gavy for Marner's.

Seems like it’s written by someone who is pretty clueless about what he’s writing about.
You’re correct that it’s not about swapping, it’s adding.
The trading rights for Gavy/Marner makes sense but only if the Leafs have interest in Gavy.

 

[hokiecat]

Delusional indeed. QB or Clarke for rights to Marner? Pffft. Kings are looking for pieces to fit into their current roster and those 2 guys are a part of it. Maybe draft picks and non-roster players going the other way. Maybe a roster player off the 3rd or 4th line, or 5th/6th D pairing (Leafs don't need that). Or if writing is on the wall swap rights of Gavy for Marner's.

"8 possible trades between the LA Kings and Toronto Maple Leafs for the rights to Mitch Marner. Number 5 will blow your mind!" Ummm, no.