Media Prediction Thread

[DryKing]

I have seen him play in person at least 50 times over his career. He is a cheater. And that isn't a bad thing, you don't need a roster full of complete players. You just don't want them in overly defensive situations and that is what you will see here in just a few short weeks. His play last year was almost entirely with kids that deferred to him, that's a long way from playing with Anze.

Don't expect point totals in the 80s, the over-under should be low 60s if he plays with Kopitar. If they can find a more competent PP then maybe it will be better than that.

And regarding the PK time, there has been a shift over the past few years where you see a lot of speedy wingers with tremendous one on one skills seeing penalty kill minutes over the more traditional bottom 6 defensive specialists. It won't be a surprise to see Fiala get that here even though board work, point coverages and switches are far from his strengths. Kempe and Moore aren't exactly Selke candidates themselves, but they saw a ton of time because they could stretch the ice and generate quick attacks off of long passes.

Hard to project how many points he will have as it really depends heavily on how well he meshes with Kopitar and what version of Kopitar we get next season. I could easily see him hitting 80 points on a line with Danault however. I don't think we have seen the best of him yet, but it may take awhile (2-3 seasons) for the right line mates to develop before we see a step forward from him, in terms of points.

I'm not concerned with Fiala on the defensive side of the puck. I agree he's not going to be a defensive rockstar, but look at his stats and analytics from last season - he was solid on both sides of the puck. I agree that speed helps significantly on the PP, but it's not the only important factor and we should not undersell his progress or dedication shown to improving last season.

Also the Kings are a bit unique in that a player cannot be truly successful on the team without being responsible in the defensive end - it's part of the teams core identity and likely not something that will fade away.

 

[jgs]

Every year is different. Kings have made improvements in bringing Fiala in. Plus with a healthy Doughty. QB will have to take a big step and play at a higher level in producing goals. Plus Vilardi has to produce for the Kings to keep in step with the division and conference.

 

[Dr. Tran]

Colorado Avalanche (+450)
Carolina Hurricanes (+1000)
Toronto Maple Leafs (+1000)
Florida Panthers (+1100)
Tampa Bay Lightning (+1200)
Edmonton Oilers (+1500)
Calgary Flames (+1600)
Pittsburgh Penguins (+1700)
New York Rangers (+1700)
Vegas Golden Knights (+1700)
Minnesota Wild (+1800)
Boston Bruins (+2700)

I know this is in Vegas but why are the Golden Knights getting so much love? Have they gotten better this off season without Pacioretty & Lehner and with Kessel & Hill? I don’t think so. They’re also over the cap right now according to Cap Friendly. And as far as the injury excuse, we also got decimated by injuries both in numbers & to how many key guys were out. We found a way to overcome them while Vegas didn’t. I don’t see they’re rated so high at all.

 

[jammer06]

I know this is in Vegas but why are the Golden Knights getting so much love? Have they gotten better this off season without Pacioretty & Lehner and with Kessel & Hill? I don’t think so. They’re also over the cap right now according to Cap Friendly. And as far as the injury excuse, we also got decimated by injuries both in numbers & to how many key guys were out. We found a way to overcome them while Vegas didn’t. I don’t see they’re rated so high at all.

They gotta balance the books. Predicting the money is just as sensitive as balancing the chances. There are certain teams that always take cash and the book has to be defensive about it. For all we know Mattress Max is out there messing with the odds.

 

[hokiecat]

They gotta balance the books. Predicting the money is just as sensitive as balancing the chances. There are certain teams that always take cash and the book has to be defensive about it. For all we know Mattress Max is out there messing with the odds.

Vegas books don't want to end up like 2018 where my Caps saved them from an ugly payout. All those local people who placed a joke longshot $20 bet on the new team almost got rich. I think Jammer is spot on.

 

[jammer06]

LOL I have no idea why the idea of calling the people in Vegas "local people" seems so derogatory. Probably cuz I'm thinking of my in-laws.

 

[Dr. Tran]

They gotta balance the books. Predicting the money is just as sensitive as balancing the chances. There are certain teams that always take cash and the book has to be defensive about it. For all we know Mattress Max is out there messing with the odds.

I thought it might be something along these lines.

 

[Rogie-Vachon]

::rubs chin in deep thought:: Or, would he perhaps be a copier cat?

That doesn't rhyme with the next line...so....no

 

[jammer06]

Dom and Shayna's Athletic report is out on the kings. They are predicting 92 points but with a margin of +/- 5 meaning they can see solid contention for a playoff spot, or not:

Los Angeles Kings 2022-23 season preview: Playoff chances, point projections, roster rankings

The summary:

The battle for the final playoff spot in the West is going to be extremely tough. The Kings come in as the West’s eighth-best team with some fierce competition directly below them. Just 0.4 points separate Los Angeles from the Blues at ninth, and just 0.9 points separate the Kings from the Canucks at 10th. The margins are razor-thin here — there’s very little room for error.

The Kings are looking to build on last year’s momentum, but that’s obviously easier said than done. With a projected 92.6 points, they enter the season with a 54 percent chance at making the playoffs where a 90-point season and a 95-point season look equally likely. Only one of those ends up in the postseason and it’s why the team is a near 50-50 proposition. Things really could go either way here with a lot riding on the continued progression of the kids.

There are fans who are likely disappointed as a 92-to-93 point season would obviously signify a step back. Again, it’s important to note that these things are never linear and the fact the Kings are right there in the mix shows last year was no fluke. Going out and acquiring Kevin Fiala of course helped with that too.

It’s going to be hard to repeat last season’s success, but not impossible. The Kings earned 99 points last year and go into the season with a one-in-four chance of reaching that mark again, or breaking through it. Those aren’t bad odds at all given what a surprise last season was for the team.

The biggest issue last season for the Kings was offense, specifically the team’s ability to finish. It’s hard to have success in this league without a strong offense, especially considering it’s the most repeatable skill from year to year. Fiala should change that, but there’s a question of how much of his offensive ability carries over from Minnesota into a bigger role in Los Angeles. That might just dictate how far the Kings go this season.

The big question

Its fair enough as projections go. Note that they plugged in the starting lineups assuming no Clarke because even if he gets his 9 games, that's not really planning on him for the season. Which at the time they assembled this was really a pipe dream. What it would look like with him in the lineup is actually probably worse since the model doesn't trust the rookies.

 

[STONE]

Dom and Shayna's Athletic report is out on the kings. They are predicting 92 points but with a margin of +/- 5 meaning they can see solid contention for a playoff spot, or not:

Los Angeles Kings 2022-23 season preview: Playoff chances, point projections, roster rankings

The summary:


Its fair enough as projections go. Note that they plugged in the starting lineups assuming no Clarke because even if he gets his 9 games, that's not really planning on him for the season. Which at the time they assembled this was really a pipe dream. What it would look like with him in the lineup is actually probably worse since the model doesn't trust the rookies.

Yeah, I just take all of these with a grain of salt at this point. Sure the competition is stiff, but it was last year too. We faced unsurmountable injuries and STILL made it in. The youth who helped us along the way got next-level experience, and we saw the true emergence on Spence and Durzi on the blueline, and a playoff player in Grundi.
Our injured are back, and we obtained MORE offense.

So, our TEAM chemistry got stronger, good young player got MUCH better, and we added talent.

I'm calling BS on the Athletic's take, which to me is simply dipping a toe, lol. They should commit to something, I mean, they expect peeps to pay for their take, right?

I say the Kings figure it out within the space of the first few weeks, and juggernaut it into the WC top 5-6 most of the season.

Vegas' team chemistry is, well, they have none. I think it'll be a battle between us, the Oilers, and the Nucks for the 3rd spot most of the time.

 

[jammer06]

Yeah, I just take all of these with a grain of salt at this point. Sure the competition is stiff, but it was last year too. We faced unsurmountable injuries and STILL made it in. The youth who helped us along the way got next-level experience, and we saw the true emergence on Spence and Durzi on the blueline, and a playoff player in Grundi.
Our injured are back, and we obtained MORE offense.

So, our TEAM chemistry got stronger, good young player got MUCH better, and we added talent.

I'm calling BS on the Athletic's take, which to me is simply dipping a toe, lol. They should commit to something, I mean, they expect peeps to pay for their take, right?

I say the Kings figure it out within the space of the first few weeks, and juggernaut it into the WC top 5-6 most of the season.

Vegas' team chemistry is, well, they have none. I think it'll be a battle between us, the Oilers, and the Nucks for the 3rd spot most of the time.

I know Gabbys a heck of a coach, but he's got a heck of a task there in Vancouver.

 

[STONE]

I know Gabbys a heck of a coach, but he's got a heck of a task there in Vancouver.

Absolutely! To your point, I have a real hard time, looking at his track record, especially in his first 2-3 seasons with teams, trying to see anything but the possible upside that he can have a team reach. I love that guy. Hate his team, but gotta believe he's gonna have them believing.

 

[jammer06]

Absolutely! To your point, I have a real hard time, looking at his track record, especially in his first 2-3 seasons with teams, trying to see anything but the possible upside that he can have a team reach. I love that guy. Hate his team, but gotta believe he's gonna have them believing.

I still wonder what would have happened if he had come up from Manchester instead of Andy Murray having that lame duck season. I mean imagine Kopi getting to break in with Bruce letting him fly. Instead we get Torchetti and Crow....