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As one season ends, a new one begins. And as Wednesday night approaches, a long 72-game season boils down to a brief three-game series against one opponent to decide who advances.
Toyota Arena will play host to the first and a potential third game between the Ontario Reign and Bakersfield Condors. Ironically, these are the two AHL affiliates of Edmonton and Los Angeles, who just so happen to be playing each other in their own first round series this week over on the NHL side of things.
The two California squads are familiar foes and yet they share many similarities. To preview the matchup, a comparison is in order – but first, how did they get here?
Welcome to the Team
In the summer heading into the 2023-24 season, Ontario saw the departure or promotion of most of its roster. With a tall order to fill holes in the lineup, management looked outside the organization and brought in several established players to round out GM Rich Seeley’s fresh group of young rookies and second-year pros.
In came defenders Steven Santini and Kevin Connauton, along with AHL All-Star forward Charles Hudon. The three quickly became counted on heavily, not only in the locker room by teammates, but also head coach Marco Sturm. When asked about the leadership group he turns to heading into the postseason, Ontario’s bench boss was quick to mention these new additions by name.
Hayden Hodgson was also brought over in a trade, and Joe Hicketts signed with the Reign once free agency opened in early July.
With that, the Reign roster began to take shape on the heels of major turnover that followed a disappointing playoff exit in 2022-23.
As the page now turns to a first-round series against Bakersfield, only eight players remain in Ontario who were part of last season’s brief postseason action with the Reign. While this is a new season, in many ways, it’s also largely a new group of players.
Special Teams
Any advantage on special teams is so razor thin, it would be difficult to give an advatage to one side over the other.
Ontario ranked second in the league on the power play with a 21.8% conversion rate. Meanwhile, Bakersfield was fifth best at a 20.6% conversion. On the penalty kill, both teams were sub-par over the course of the regular season, sitting in the league’s bottom third of teams. Killing off 80.3% of their shorthanded moments, the Condors ranked 21st, while the Reign faired only slightly below with the 23rd ranked penalty kill (80.2%).
When looking at how they did in the eight games against each other on the power play, Bakersfield excelled with a 36% PP percentage compared to a Reign power play of 23.3%.
Offense
Both teams finished with plus-ratings on the season. Ontario’s goal differential was plus-33 and Bakersfield came in at plus-21. The Reign ranked 10th in the league in scoring with 231 goals and Bakersfield finished slightly behind with 223 goals (14th). Looking at these numbers gives Ontario a slight advantage.
The Condors will likely feel more of a loss than the Reign from NHL call-ups who are now competing in in the Oilers’ playoff series. Edmonton recalled several important players, including Dylan Holloway, their 14th overall draft selection in 2020. He recorded 16 points (10G, 6A) in 18 AHL games this season.
As for the Reign, they’ll have access to their young game changers, including Alex Turcotte, Samuel Fagemo, and Akil Thomas — who has five goals in five AHL career playoff games.
Top 5 Regular Season Goal Scorers
Ontario:
S. Fagemo, 43
A. Thomas, 22
C. Hudon, 20
M. Chromiak, 15
T. Madden, 15
Bakersfield:
R. Lavoie, 28
L. Pedersen, 22
S. Griffith, 15
D. Caggiula, 13
C. Wright, 12
Defense
Interestingly, each club’s defense is built around a strong veteran presence with a singular rookie prospect. For the Reign, it’s Brandt Clarke, who finished a spectacular first pro season with 46 points (10G, 36A) in 50 games – good for fourth best among all AHL defensemen. And with the Condors, it’s Maximus Wanner, a rangy, defense-focused, 6-foot-3 freshman that spent a fair amount of time on their top pairing.
Ontario takes another ever so slight advantage in this category, as they finished sixth in the AHL in goals-against (198) while the Condors were eighth (202), just a four-goal separation.
It looked like Bakersfield was going to be without impact defender Philip Broberg, as he was up with Edmonton. However, the Oilers sent him back down on Tuesday afternoon. He’s expected to play in Game One vs. Ontario.
Goaltending
Lastly, and what could be the difference in the series, goaltending has been a bright spot for each team.
The Condors have ridden a two-goalie system for much of the season. Ex-Reign netminder Jack Campbell (2.63 GAA, .918 SV%) played 33 games and Oilers prospect Olivier Rodrigue (2.73 GAA, .916 SV%) saw action in 37 games. The latter, a 23-year-old draft selection in 2018 (second round), had a career year.
For the Reign, it will be rookie Erik Portillo (2.50 GAA, .918 SV%) looking to steal the show. Ontario deployed five different goaltenders throughout the season, yet the 6-foot-6 freshman was a constant. He played 39 games, leading the team by 23 starts over second place David Rittich. Portillo’s 24 wins were second most among all first-year AHL goalies.
And that’s the rub – Sturm and Co. will need to lean heavily on Portillo, as they only have depth goalie Ryan Bednard available as backup for this series. Prospect Jacob Ingham is the starter in ECHL Greenville for their playoff run, and veteran Aaron Dell has been recalled to LA as an insurance third goalie.
It’s sink-or-swim time for Portillo and his squad; however, the Reign have built themselves with a near-perfect blend of seasoned veterans, multi-year pros with experience, and impact rookies to put together a team with eyes on a deep playoff run.
Reign Projected Lineup vs. Condors
Turcotte – Tynan – Fagemo
Chromiak – Thomas – Madden
Lee – Pinelli – Ward
Pavlychev – Helenius – Doty
Hicketts – Clarke
Connauton – Santini
Nousiainen – Wylie
Portillo (starter)
Bednard
Other roster options include: (F) Francis, Hodgson and (D) Krygier, Millar, Rowe
Puck drop is scheduled for 7pm Pacific Time and the game can be viewed on AHLTV.
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