Sean Durzi, what have we got

jammer06

Nyssa's Minion
TEAM LGK
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Sean Durzi is clearly a talking point for this season. He's both whipping boy and possibly the main driver of all the offensive stats that are keeping Todd playing him as the top PP quarterback and pushing his time to the top when Doughty was out. His contract is incredibly valuable for both the kings this season and next along with being an amazing value in NHL marketplace. He's also only 24 years old which is still actually young and for a defenseman not named Makar a pretty usual age for a top 4 defenseman to begin asserting themselves in the NHL.

Not everyone loves Dom's model, and I admit it's overvaluing offense compared to the increased scoring that's happened over the few years. However it's a great visualization of single player values and what the rest of the league also values. Sean's player card is here:

Screenshot-2022-12-11-at-9.32.23-PM-2048x1285.png


The main stats to note, the market value for Durzi projects as a 6.8 million dollar contract, and that in terms of points generation/gsva he's in the top 20% of the league. Anyone looking at that gaffe from the knights game that wants to hold onto that moment as the defining characterization of Durzi as a player for the rest of his career is probably going to be amazed at how many contracts and money he's going to earn. The other notes about Durzi that are interesting can be found at both Hockey Reference and Natural Stat trick

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/d/durzise01.html

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/pl...&sit=all&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=p&playerid=8480434

I know the eyeball people only see the negatives in a player but the fancy stats are also useful for many things, both of these say that when Durzi is on the ice good things happen. I know it doesn't seem like that when the team's been fishing the puck out of their net at an ungodly rate this season but believe it or not with Durzi on the ice at 5v5 they've actually been outscored by only 1 goal. On a team with a goal differential of -12 that means he's not the biggest problem (for reference, Matt Roy and Philip Danault are both -4). On the Power play Durzi's unit has been on the ice for 14 of the 26 goals the team has scored. This has been his biggest asset to the team by far. The other amazing thing? As a penalty killer Durzi has been on ice for only 12 of the 32 goals this squad has given up (for reference Matt Roy has been caught out 17 times, on a per 60 basis Durzi is allowing goals at a slower rate too).

To this point anyone looking at Roy vs Durzi in a vacuum of if you had to pick between the two of them to be on the right hand side (knowing there's Doughty now and Clarke as the future) can make a lot of arguments for either. Lets not pretend there isn't a salary cap, Durzi is going to get paid in this league. Roy is getting paid what he's going to get paid. Defensively they bring a similar value, Durzi is simply more valuable due to the offense he brings. For reference Doughty's player value is worth 9 million per year, simply put this season he's still way better than everyone else on our defense by a mile.

Now knowing that Durzi is going to get paid, and that he was acquired via trade, and knowing that he's got a great number for this year and next year (will be RFA when coming up as well) it seems like a no brainer that he's our trade chit for the LHD that we really need. That view however is tunnel vision, there is an alternative that does need consideration. This mythical LHD unicorn for the left hand side is typically pied in the sky as Jacob Chychrun who at 4.6 million for the next two seasons solves all the problems. I encourage those of you salivating about that concept to review Deans quote about the best players on bad teams. The alternative is utilizing Durzi's RFA status in conjunction with Clarke's elc status to keep that payday from killing the kings. Finding a defensively responsible LHD with that bit of Matt Greene in him is infinitely easier and cheaper to acquire than the unicorns. For anyone that doubts it look no further than Edlers acquisition and cap cost.

The fact that the kings haven't pulled a trigger either way probably has the most to do with they really want to see what they have in Toby. Walker can be left to the side for the moment, sadly he will probably be a change of scenery pleasant surprise for someone next year when his knee is finally closer to full strength.

In terms of trade value, Durzi can probably pull a first from someone. With other assets a roster player (cap math would be the limiting factor). In terms of value to this team he's driving a top tier PP, being employed on the PK out of necessity and tilting the ice in the kings favor at 5v5 for 1.7 million this year and next and will remain cost controlled as an RFA. The point is that he has more value to this team today and in the near term future than probably anyone other than Mikey pending how his contract talks go next year. When you have one of those things you don't facepalm and demand they trade him because you'd rather watch a hockey game with no goals in it. That is a matter of style, not of value. With as patient as Blake has been about this he is in a strong position which ever way he goes, but if he does trade Durzi he better get a hell of a return because he's absolutely worth it.
 
With Clarke and Spence waiting in the wings, Blake needs to figure out which guys he's going to keep here. Durzi definitely looks like somebody with lots of trade value, but the flip side is that, if you decide to keep him it puts a lot of pressure on Roy to bring something to the table. If you like a right side of Doughty/Durzi/Clarke, that leaves no room for Roy, Walker, and Spence. And it exposes just how milk toast our left side is after Anderson. Bjornfot and Edler isnt going to cut it, and they dont seem all that high on Movarare right now.
 
Durzi has value to trade. He also has value in making him a better player than he has been this season. I would love to have him stay if he can hone in on the horrendous mistakes he has made this year.
 
I still think that Spence, while a similar type of player, will be the better player in the long run. Maybe as soon as next season. I think he's what, 4th in the AHL in scoring among D-men in his second pro season at age 21? Similar offensive skill set to Durzi and ice water in his veins; reminds me of Doughty a little in that aspect. So at this point, I'd trade Durzi before Spence. I think Spence is going to be a star. He and Clarke could be the Kings' defensive anchors for a decade plus.
 
Durzi has value to trade. He also has value in making him a better player than he has been this season. I would love to have him stay if he can hone in on the horrendous mistakes he has made this year.

For comparisons sake, Jack Johnson entering his 24 yo season had been a full timer for three full seasons and was already a staggering - 55. He was worth a grumpy Jeff Carter in a 1 for 1.

They werent the same pedigree but there was definitely value in JJs contract at the time and that was back before gms really valued cap space.
 
While i appreciate the analytics, I will give my opinion based on experience watching/playing hockey 30 years and the "eye test" having survived Aki Berg, Modry, Schenn. Phaneuf etc.

What the Kings have is tons of offensive ability, we've scored more goals than I can remember in the last 10 years. What we don't have and desperately need is defense.

Durzi has amazing offensive upside but his reads are terrible and his defense is simply not good enough for the NHL at this point. He will be a great trade piece for teams that need offense.

DURZI is small and fast, but he's just in the wrong place faster or making bad pinches and out of position faster.
While he might fetch 6-7 million one day, he's not worth it now, maybe 2-3 max. He still has lots to learn on the job and we'll take at least three or four more years of Hardcore concentration on his defensive deficiencies to make him an NHL regular.

We obviously trade for a positional, stay at home D. Preferably with size for Durzi. We learned this early on playing Nintendo's "ICE HOCKEY." Have too many of the same small and soft players.
 
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I think back then JJ still had "Franchise player" tag on him so it was easy to turn a blind eye to the -55 and blame it on being on a bad team.

Durzi is a good player. He will play in the NHL for many years but the Kings have to decide if they are going to deal with some of the risk in defense in exchange for the extra offence boost. Personally I think they are moving past playing a safe game and waiting for other teams to make mistakes. It fun, but its not what I'm used to. Reminds me of the Ducks style during Getzlaf/Perry era.
 
I'm definitely more of an "eye test guy" than an "advanced metrics" guy...but these metrics really aren't so advanced.

Sean's defensive +/- speaks for itself and his penalty diff year over year suggests he is getting better positionally.

The main problem with Durzi is when he messes up it's usually quite a gaffe, so it stays with you longer.

But the data surprises me, and his "market value" number is shocking.

He will continue to improve and possibly end up being a "top 5" 2nd pairing guy. That said, I still think Spence will the better player at the end of the day.

Blake really does have some tough decisions ahead, he hasn't really made one tough call yet, everything has been a no brainer to this point, except for the Doughty extension IMO. Whoops.
 
While i appreciate the analytics, I will give my opinion based on experience watching/playing hockey 30 years and the "eye test" having survived Aki Berg, Modry, Schenn. Phaneuf etc.

What the Kings have is tons of offensive ability, we've scored more goals than I can remember in the last 10 years. What we don't have and desperately need is defense.

Durzi has amazing offensive upside but his reads are terrible and his defense is simply not good enough for the NHL at this point. He will be a great trade piece for teams that need offense.

DURZI is small and fast, but he's just in the wrong place faster or making bad pinches and out of position faster.
While he might fetch 6-7 million one day, he's not worth it now, maybe 2-3 max. He still has lots to learn on the job and we'll take at least three or four more years of Hardcore concentration on his defensive deficiencies to make him an NHL regular.

We obviously trade for a positional, stay at home D. Preferably with size for Durzi. We learned this early on playing Nintendo's "ICE HOCKEY." Have too many of the same small and soft players.

Durzi is the opposite of fast. He’s a pretty average, if not slightly sub-par skater. What he IS, is crafty.. if he could skate worth a ****, he would be an absolute gem. Very similar to Clarke in that respect.
 
Good analysis by all. I think the eye test with Durzi is this, when Durzi makes mistakes, it leads to scoring chances against. Since the goaltending hasn't been that good, a Durzi lapse at the offensive blue line has lead to multiple goals against. That said, the eye test. Anyone question that Durzi looks like a pro? Anyone question whether he looks like he is in over his head? I think Durzi looks and acts like a top line defenseman.....who makes dumbs mistakes from time to time and who's goalie doesn't save his ass. DarkLeft said "crafty". I agree. Overall, there's time to learn and develop. He is better than many options and I would not use as trade bait for someone less crafty.
 
Something about Durzi just doesn't feel right...but he will be a very valuable chip in a trade. He has the offensive instincts that you just can't teach and could be very valuable to a team that looks for an off. spark on the blueline. Maybe not JMFJ level of trade value, but with a sprinkle of a draft pick he could net a nice return.

The Kings blueline next year should look like this:
Anderson - DD
Stable, tough vet D-man - Clarke
Whoever is best fit - Spence
 
Something about Durzi just doesn't feel right...but he will be a very valuable chip in a trade. He has the offensive instincts that you just can't teach and could be very valuable to a team that looks for an off. spark on the blueline. Maybe not JMFJ level of trade value, but with a sprinkle of a draft pick he could net a nice return.

The Kings blueline next year should look like this:
Anderson - DD
Stable, tough vet D-man - Clarke
Whoever is best fit - Spence

Weird thought but I'd rather trade Clarke for an equal level LD and keep both Durzi and Spence on the right side. Durzi, to me, seems like the type of player who follows in the Coffey model of never being fully valued by a team and falsely projected to be just as good with him as without because he doesn't check the typical boxes. Spence, on the other hand, checks the boxes and is solid across the board (minus size) but doesn't have the same level of heart and fire yet that we see out of Durzi. Clarke projects to be a better, more complete, version of Durzi but will take time to get there and may never fully realize his potential. Normally you'd never trade a player like Clarke, but the same likely goes for who we could get in return for him. It really just depends on the what the Kings leadership feels their window for the team to be a contender is.
 
Weird thought but I'd rather trade Clarke for an equal level LD and keep both Durzi and Spence on the right side. Durzi, to me, seems like the type of player who follows in the Coffey model of never being fully valued by a team and falsely projected to be just as good with him as without because he doesn't check the typical boxes. Spence, on the other hand, checks the boxes and is solid across the board (minus size) but doesn't have the same level of heart and fire yet that we see out of Durzi. Clarke projects to be a better, more complete, version of Durzi but will take time to get there and may never fully realize his potential. Normally you'd never trade a player like Clarke, but the same likely goes for who we could get in return for him. It really just depends on the what the Kings leadership feels their window for the team to be a contender is.

This is a weird thought. It's not unreasonable, but I'd be very wary of having such one-dimensional players on defense. When was the last time such one-dimensional, error prone player was a Cup winner in a meaningful role on defense?

Don't get me wrong, Durzi should still improve, but the question is - how much? I see much bigger potential in Clarke for being a more complete and dominant player in a similar mold to DD to replace him - which the Kings will have to do in a few years (sooner rather than later, even if not replacing him physically on the roster - but rather replacing his on-ice presence).

So...if we're talking about the Kings being a playoff team, sure, Durzi is enough as-is. But building a Cup winner...I have doubts.
 
This is a weird thought. It's not unreasonable, but I'd be very wary of having such one-dimensional players on defense. When was the last time such one-dimensional, error prone player was a Cup winner in a meaningful role on defense?

Don't get me wrong, Durzi should still improve, but the question is - how much? I see much bigger potential in Clarke for being a more complete and dominant player in a similar mold to DD to replace him - which the Kings will have to do in a few years (sooner rather than later, even if not replacing him physically on the roster - but rather replacing his on-ice presence).

So...if we're talking about the Kings being a playoff team, sure, Durzi is enough as-is. But building a Cup winner...I have doubts.

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Don't laugh, people are already talking up his trade worth for any contender
 
There's a very big difference in what we're talking about in regards to Durzi and what he could be vs Clarke/Spence and so forth. For what it's worth almost all of the projections at the draft level capped all three guys as a 2nd pair guy who could contribute to a powerplay(admittedly that was very optimistic for Spence, mostly due to size). There is a huge chasm of difference to what Doughty's projection was as a number one and quite honestly what Doughty is still providing as a number one vs even what Durzi is contributing. Even that increased exposure on the PP for Durzi seems bright and shiny, but in reality he's much more of that Slava level impact on the team. Clarke and Spence are simply on a different track, Spence has the closer mental makeup to reading hockey like Doughty does but living up to that level of execution is asking a lot. Just look how easy it's been for anyone to displace Quick. Hall of Fame guys are that good for a reason, there's going to be a high likelihood of a dropoff. Clarke is absolutely molded more like a Coffey/Karlsson. The team is going to be best served letting him rove to take advantage of the things he does best, just a question of if the team will play it's best with that as a priority.
 
Agree 100% with what Jammer says.
Durzi has been very good in the role we have asked him to play. Nobody else in the past 5+ years has been able to provide an offensive boost from the blueline. So naturally many Kings fans would trade that away. With Durzi you have to take the bad with the good. But people here are shortchanging him a LOT in my opinion. In the playoffs last year, Spence got scratched. The hitting picked up and he was too small to compete. Meanwhile Durzi elevated his game, providing more chippiness than most of the blueline, and played well (and got hurt).
Which brings me to Spence. If he was 2" taller and 15-20 lb heavier, this discussion would be a no brainer. He'd be the guy to keep. He's going to need to continue to bulk up or we're going to see a repeat this spring of a guy who is effective in the regular season and then diminished when the hitting picks up. Guys like Kassian just crushed him.
Clarke has the highest upside but we've only seen a 9-game sample. He's still a prospect and we know how prospects go. Sometimes they develop as planned. And sometimes you have Byfield and Turcotte playing in Ontario while Stutzle and Cozens perform at a PPG pace in the NHL.
 
I love and hate Durzi at the same time. He reminds me so much of Muzzin when he was here. Offensive potential decent defense but the occaional brain farts tha were costly
 
Spence looked good at times tonight, made smart plays, but also got pushed around pretty badly by the forecheckers. He’s definitely going to need to add a ton of mass to his frame, or make quicker decisions a la Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar..
 
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Don't laugh, people are already talking up his trade worth for any contender

Is this Jack Johnson?

First of all, he averaged 11min TOI in the playoffs. I think I said "meaningful top 4 role".

Second of all, the Avs are considerably more offensively talented team where it's much easier to "hide" a "minus forever" player like JMFJ through sheer dominance.

The Kings need to do more than just wait for the current roster to develop into Avs-like bunch as that is very unlikely to ever happen. They will need a WM-type of veteran on D and that kind of player is likely going to cost some, especially if we don't want to overpay in the UFA market. The Kings will maybe need to trade for a starting goalie, too. And perhaps most importantly, as things stand, they will have to make room for Clarke and Spence and it would be nice to do that this season.

Durzi is very unlikely going to ever be the "X-factor" in a Cup run team and as a result you look to maximize his value in a trade considering you have other, arguably more talented players knocking on the door behind him. The same goes for Spence - if he proves he can perform at an NHL level, you can eventually trade him while his value is good and bring in someone to solidify the bottom pairing for a Cup run.
 
Dang!

You should be able to trade an offensively talented and productive RHD for a
solid, shutdown-type LHD in this league.

JMO, but I'll be surprised if it doesn't get done sooner or later.
 

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