Some Reality Checks

The 1-3-1 is not passive?
You said the kings are a defense first team and dont get pucks to net. The stats bear out the reality that the kings do get chances, dont simply shell up, and that the continuing narrative of them being an ineffective offensive team is false. All teams generally have a passive defensive structure when the other team has full control of the puck, whether that's something like 1-3-1, or 1-2-2, or whatever. At 5v5, they have generally been an effective team at getting chances and scoring goals. The issue this season, and specifically this series, has been special teams.
 
If you're going to analogize the 2012 team, to me the Oilers this year are a lot like the Kings' 2012 team. They play big, control the puck, defend well, forecheck effectively... The biggest difference between those teams is McJesus, et al. If the Kings' 2012 team had that level of offensive talent, they probably would have won every game instead of going up 3-0 in each series and losing a few game 4s.

As I recall it, the 2012 boys would all skate through checks and maintain control of the puck. Teams just couldn't knock Kopi or Carts or much of the other players off the puck. Along with that level of puck control and shot blocking, teams just couldn't score. Now, Kopi gets knocked off the puck with regularity, Doughty turns the puck over, etc. You can style the team for a 131, 221, 41, or even 337, but no system will overcome getting manhandled like this.
 
During the regular season, they were 5th at high danger shots for, and 3rd at xG%. That's with a long slump of struggling to score. This is, generally speaking, a team that gets good quality chances. The notion that they play some sort of passive, defense first, low scoring play style is not really reflective of reality.
Where are you getting those stats?

Natural Stat Trick has the Kings (5v5) HDCF 16th and HDSF 18th.
 
Hopefully, they play another good game in game 5 and get a better outcome. But regardless, it's time for a top to bottom change. Luc, Blake, Bergevin, Emerson, and Muzz should be thanked for their service and shown the door. Green, O'Donnell and/or Stoll can take over on the development side. New GM from outside the organization who picks his own staff, including coaches.
 
Where are you getting those stats?

Natural Stat Trick has the Kings (5v5) HDCF 16th and HDSF 18th.
i think i was looking at moneypuck at the time. I think even middle of the pack stats are enough to backup my claim, but i admit if moneypucks numbers are off, it makes my argument a little less enticing.

EDIT - went and checked a 3rd site with hockey reference, and it has Kings at 15th HDCF, 12th SCF (HDSF not listed and didnt look), so i do think the numbers are closer to what you listed. With that said, thats right between vegas and dallas, so i still feel that the numbers back up my questioning of the narrative of a team that cant generate quality looks, and just sits passively sits back the entire game. They certainly are not a high flying team like colorado or edmonton, but they do actually forecheck and apply pressure and get pucks to the net at similar rates with other teams that most would consider offensive.
 
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i think i was looking at moneypuck at the time. I think even middle of the pack stats are enough to backup my claim, but i admit if moneypucks numbers are off, it makes my argument a little less enticing.
If the Kings are 16th and 18th that means they’re borderline a playoff team. That tracks with the final record standings. It’s not even close to good enough.
 
If the Kings are 16th and 18th that means they’re borderline a playoff team. That tracks with the final record standings. It’s not even close to good enough.
i disagree. According to natural stat trick, being 16th in HDCF puts them equal with vegas, slightly behind florida, and above teams like the rangers and lightning.

FWIW, one single stat is surely not good enough to decide whether a team is or isnt a playoff contender, and that was never my contention, but if were going to look at that stat, i think the teams immediately near the kings do at least demonstrate they could be, or at least compare favorably with other teams that many would consider contenders.

But again, im not even arguing whether the kings are or are not contenders. Im arguing that they arent a team that simply shells up for the entire game, as others have alluded to. the 1-3-1 coverage they use is simply a defensive strategy that gets employed in certain situations when appropriate, and they apply forechecking pressure when that's appropriate. And they generate solid scoring chances, certainly on par with other good teams.
 
i disagree. According to natural stat trick, being 16th in HDCF puts them equal with vegas, slightly behind florida, and above teams like the rangers and lightning.

FWIW, one single stat is surely not good enough to decide whether a team is or isnt a playoff contender, and that was never my contention, but if were going to look at that stat, i think the teams immediately near the kings do at least demonstrate they could be, or at least compare favorably with other teams that many would consider contenders.

But again, im not even arguing whether the kings are or are not contenders. Im arguing that they arent a team that simply shells up for the entire game, as others have alluded to. the 1-3-1 coverage they use is simply a defensive strategy that gets employed in certain situations when appropriate, and they apply forechecking pressure when that's appropriate. And they generate solid scoring chances, certainly on par with other good teams.
I can live with a middle of the road 5v5 offense if the PP were #3 in the league like the Rangers or #1 like the Lightning. The Kings are middle of the road in both and as a result they’re seen as boring.

I think it’s safe to say if the Rangers or Lightning swapped PP with the Kings nobody would consider those two teams exciting.
 
I can live with a middle of the road 5v5 offense if the PP were #3 in the league like the Rangers or #1 like the Lightning. The Kings are middle of the road in both and as a result they’re seen as boring.

I think it’s safe to say if the Rangers or Lightning swapped PP with the Kings nobody would consider those two teams exciting.
but that's likely not any sort of issue related to structure. Last season, when they brought Hiller in specifically to improve the PP, they were 4th in the league in PP%. I can guarantee they didnt make structure changes to be worse there on the PP. It's personnel (lack of right hand shots) and execution. And likely now a bit of confidence.

But again, this was a discussion about the King's ability to score at 5v5, and how they supposedly shell up in a 1-3-1 and never get chances. So, you're welcome to go off on a tangent, but that's not really what i was talking about to begin with.

With that said, i agree, their PP sucks this season, and as i said earlier in the thread, the games are being won and lost on special teams. But that has nothing to do with them running the 1-3-1.
 
Maybe I'm totally misguided here but, I'll say it again anyway...Though by no means wishing to anywhere near pin the whole debacle on him, because this team (coaches included) obviously has a hatful of shortcomings to overcome, PLD has been, as politely as I can put it a massive, MASSIVE disappointment to me.

And listening to Blake talking about "we have to get back to defence...defence, defence, defence..." then (and yeah, I know we outshot the Oinkers by a massive margin, but, in the final analysis, "shots for" counts for nothing unless some actually go in) we go and lose 1-0 and in the process hand that b*****d Skinner his first playoff shutout in our bloody building of all places!!! Even in a tight defensive game we couldn't come out on top. AAARRRGGGHHH!!!!

Blake must go, absolutely and totally and as everyone else says, get someone from outside. I'd favor Mr Trotz maybe, if he's game, but would prefer to see Rod Brind'Amour if he is okay with L.A. as a location (we've got quite a few young players for him to mould coming through) and perhaps decides it's time for a change after this season. Anyone who is not an old pal to come in and choose his own coaches (whoever's available of course...the other big problem). This all assumes, of course, that Uncle Phil can still be persuaded to put his hand in his pocket.

I feel so, sooo bad for the likes of Lizotte and Moore and Fiala and Spence and especially Phil Danault...and, hell, Big Save Dave too...who play their hearts out game after game. Unless our guys can pull a miracle out of the hat, this looks like being just another miserably disappointing NHL year for all of us...and with the prospect of having to watch that moose-on-ice Dubois (no offence to mooses intended)...I don't think I can handle it...sheesh, hand me the bottle, Jeeves!
 
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Where are you getting those stats?

Natural Stat Trick has the Kings (5v5) HDCF 16th and HDSF 18th.
My stats are better than your stats.

I saw somewhere that the Kings had a huge advantage last night in "High Danger Chances". I must have missed them. Or, these stat sites just pull data and make many huge assumptions. As an example, Lewis just outside of the crease, Lizotte throws him the puck, it bounces off Lewis' stick towards the net, Lewis then gets knocked on his arse. That is what is considered a "High Danger Chance" just because it was in or near the slot? Even though there was no chance that a goal will be scored? The oilers had more quality scoring chances while having about 1/3 the amount of shots. High Danger Chances be damned.
 
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Personally I would like to see Blake back for another season and pull in a veteran head coach who has playoff success in their background. There is definitely opportunity to fine tune the roster (add size, grit and leadership) but to me the problem has come down to coaching and a poor ability to make adjustments, when needed, both on 5x5 and special teams.

On the flip side, I would like to see both Luc and Bergevin go who I think were the ones truly behind the PLD trade.
 
Personally I would like to see Blake back for another season and pull in a veteran head coach who has playoff success in their background. There is definitely opportunity to fine tune the roster (add size, grit and leadership) but to me the problem has come down to coaching and a poor ability to make adjustments, when needed, both on 5x5 and special teams.

On the flip side, I would like to see both Luc and Bergevin go who I think were the ones truly behind the PLD trade.

I think that Blake is the one dictating how the team plays. He and Todd came up with this on ice plan. When he fired Todd Blake said that the Kings will continue to play the same schemes.

Add size, grit and leadership for next year? How? Cap issues will be worse next year. This team is losing players next year due to BCM (Blake Cap Mess).

Agree about Luc and Marc, but Blake needs to go as well.
 
I think that Blake is the one dictating how the team plays. He and Todd came up with this on ice plan. When he fired Todd Blake said that the Kings will continue to play the same schemes.

Add size, grit and leadership for next year? How? Cap issues will be worse next year. This team is losing players next year due to BCM (Blake Cap Mess).

Agree about Luc and Marc, but Blake needs to go as well.
Likely we need to add those elements through trades and the draft, rather than free agency, however it will be interesting to see which FAs the Kings bring back. Either way it will not happen overnight, or without a clear vision. If Blake cannot provide that vision then I agree it's time to let him go, but I do question how hampered he is with Luc and Bergevin "advising" him.

Any coach worth his job will not blindly follow a GMs gameplan as to who the team should play. Each vet coach comes in with their own system and strengths and weaknesses. I do agree that they can be limited by the personal the GM provides them however.

Arvy, Kaliyev, Grundstrom, Talbot, Dell and Lewis are likely gone this summer - with the RFAs likely signed and traded. Roy and Lizotte may price out as well, but I believe the Kings will keep them if they can afford to. That will give us enough space to start toughening up the team by bringing in a couple players with grit. Leadership will need to be further developed by the coaching staff as we have capable players but again it comes down to vision.
 
The only reality check you need:

The Oilers are significantly better the Kings. They have a better roster. They have better coaching. They have better scouting. They have better management.

Edmonton is just better.

Can they lose the series? Yes. Will they lose? Nope.

Jim Carrey Chance GIF
 
So, since the topic is Reality Check, here are some thoughts.

(Been a fan since the pre-Gretzky days. Never played hockey but did play a different sport through college. I think I have a decent understanding of hockey.)

This team has enough talent. I honestly don’t know about the coaching part. At times this team plays well and when they do so the “system” appears to work well enough. So, I’m uncertain whether it’s the coaching or the system that’s the impediment.

What I have seen since the 20-game mark is a team that is probably more frustrating and maddening than any I can recall.

The slump in December-January was terrible. But what followed in some ways was more difficult to watch. There were far too many games where the Kings just did not appear to have any motivation or competitive spirit.

One thing that I admired about Lombardi was his understanding that teams need leadership inside the room. He had Brown, but also brought in Greene, Stoll, Williams & Richard’s. DL often spoke about culture, and brought in the people who could create it. Additionally, that leadership core was surrounded by guys like Mitchell, Scuderi, Carter, etc who were gamers. And Quick was just a guy who wanted nothing but to win every night.

Watching this team this year showed a substantial void.
I’m not in the room nor am I privy to what goes on. Like the rest of us, we grasp at clues and make our judgements about the team.

Looking at this season I cannot imagine the old leadership group would tolerate the inconsistency.

I am big fans of both Kopi and Doughty. They are going to be in the rafters. But I don’t see the leadership that is necessary.

In 2012 the Kings miraculously won a Cup. They were a team that got hot at the right time. If no Cups followed this one would have been widely viewed as a fluke. The 2014 Cup gave the Kings legitimacy.

I have wondered if somehow those Cups put out the fire for Kopi & Drew, that the two Cups were enough for their legacies.
Yeah, we have heard the comments, especially from DD that he wants to win, etc and I’m sure that’s true on some level.
But, all that was 10 years ago.

This team has just not shown any consistent desire to be more than they are. At times I’ve wondered whether I care more than this team does.

The only guys I see as actual leaders (from a distance of course) are guys like Danault & at times Kempe. We have heard about Mikey and his leadership qualities. I think Arvy is partially there, when on the ice.
Aside from these guys, who is there?

Leadership is hard to judge and it comes in different forms. Kopi appears to be a quiet leader. Drew is probably more overt but he’s such a different guy I just don’t know how much it reasonates. He admittedly states that he talks so much he doesn’t know if anyone listens or tunes him out.
I’m not knocking these guys. Everyone has to be real, be themselves.

But, it’s my belief that the main problem with this team is culture and leadership.
I don’t know if Blake feels this isn’t as important as DL did, or if DL just had a knack for seeing it. But, it’s very apparent that this team doesn’t have it and needs to address it.

As I said at the beginning, this team does have talent. Kopi, Drew, Kempe, Danault, Moore, Fiala, Arvy, QB, Mikey, Roy, Gavy…that’s a pretty good talent level.

Maybe I’m missing things but I don’t know that it’s coaching. Yep, the PP should be considerably better. But how much of it is coaching and how much is players being stubborn. I cannot imagine Hiller is saying “Yeah, no one should ever move. No one should ever shoot. We should always just pass back and forth to Kopi on the half wall and Dewy up top.”

This team needs to fill some holes: goalie, bigger guys at both ends, but the core isn’t bad at all.

Any team that played so many games this year without any real competitive desire has off-ice issues.
That’s the reality I see.
 

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