It’s been a busy 10 days for Kings GM Rob Blake and he’s really only just begun his summer to-do list. There are still a handful of current player contracts to deal with, at least a trade or two this weekend, and then free agency begins on Monday. So, where do things stand with LA’s projected salary cap at the moment? Let’s take a look…
When last we left things in early June, the Kings were projected to be right around the cap limit of $88M for next season. Since then, several things have taken place — including the seismic change of moving the $8.5M AAV that came with PL Dubois. How Blake was able to pull that deal off without retaining money or throwing in a sweetener (i.e. draft pick or prospect) is still one of the offseason great mysteries. Even his most ardent critics have admitted that was a stroke of wizardry rarely seen in the NHL.
For those playing catch-up, we offered thoughts on that trade both on NHL Network Radio (link) and on KOTP (link).
This is a summer where the Kings were expected to have nearly a 30% change in the players who suited up for their lineup last season. Along with any structural changes new coach Jim Hiller has in mind, 2024-25 will be a rather fresh start in many ways.
There will be prospects in the lineup too! Following Akil Thomas signing his new deal, fellow prospects Alex Turcotte and Sammy Fagemo also put pen to paper on new extensions. Take note that the latter two contracts came in a little lower than we originally projected. And while $125K may not sound like much, every $100k counts in a world where the Kings are still paying off money on this year’s cap for bonuses that were actually earned last year.
We also published our prediction for the upcoming Quinton Byfield extension in the article above, where we did a deep dive on the options and where we think it will ultimately land — with the reasoning why too.
Once we input all of the above information into the Kings cap projections sheet, there was quite a bit more money available to play with, so we also increased the spend estimates on the two key free agents (one top-6 winger and a left shot defenseman) by $500k each.
If the player’s box is in green below, that indicates the contract is already in place for next season, including Anze Kopitar’s new $7M contract kicking in. Byfield is still an estimate, so it’s highlighted in blue. Any spot reserved for a UFA signing (or player acquired via trade) is indicated in yellow, along with a corresponding estimate of what that player/position may end up costing.
To repeat what we’ve said quite a few times since the season ended, Blake began the summer with about $20M to spend. This wasn’t going to be a situation like last year, where the Kings were super tight up against the cap and didn’t have a lot of flexibility to add key pieces. We had $4.5M allocated to the 1A goaltender, and with Darcy Kuemper coming in a little higher than that, the team is still in good shape money-wise. Moving out the PLD money gave them even more wiggle room.
Now what?
Obviously, the Byfield contract is key — and we’re expect that be announced early next week. Whatever number that ends up being really solidifies the biggest piece of the puzzle. What we like about the above projection is that Byfield is plugged in at a number that should be close to the final number. If it somehow ends up being higher, this scenario still shows the Kings having a surplus. Thus, they can add more money to the Byfield box, UFA winger box, and/or UFA defenseman boxes, as needed.
Additional Notes
Five quick things to bring up before moving on to a few roster rumors.
• Trevor Lewis has been added to the above projection because we continue to hear that’s a very realistic possibility. Either way, that spot will most likely be filled by a player on a league-minimum contract. They’re going to need a veteran player on the fourth line somehow, as they don’t seem too interested in playing an all-kid line. We also hear they want to add size and intensity to the bottom-6, so there could be multiple additions from the outside.
• Previous lineup projections had Byfield as the 1C. With PLD gone, there’s likely not such an internal push to make that happen. The prevailing thought was, put PLD in the best position possible to succeed if he came back for year two, and that looked to be on the wing, playing on the first or second line alongside Byfield. There also is a desire among some to see Kopitar play fewer minutes. We’ll have to see how that all comes together come training camp. For now, we’ve returned Kopitar to 1C.
• We’re still not projecting Viktor Arvidsson, Blake Lizotte, or Carl Grundstrom to be re-signed by LA. Maybe Grundstrom — maybe — now that the cap situation isn’t so tight. Maybe. For more information on these players, see our detailed analysis of their situations here.
• What about Matt Roy? The Kings love the player. That’s not the issue. Problem is, right now they need help on the left side more than the right. And, the fact that he’s likely going to get $5-6M on the open market makes this not a good fit. One option that we’ll delve into more in a subsequent article is trading his rights. That could possibly fetch the Kings a fifth round pick this weekend. They’ll gladly take it while wishing Roy all the best in his future endeavors.
• Reminder, the above is merely a projected lineup, don’t spend too much time worrying about who is at LW1 vs. LW2. Also, LA will start next season with over $2.7M in retained money and termination penalties (yes, they’re still paying on the Mike Richards contract). Plus, they were hit with $1.85M in penalties for going over the cap in 2023-24, with $1M of that going to Talbot in the form of a bonus for playing 10 games.
UFAs and Trade Rumors
• We don’t see the Kings involved in a deal to get Rutger McGroarty out of Winnipeg.
• Getting Jakob Chychrun out of Ottawa to fill the LD spot sounds very intriguing. It’s just not as straightforward as it would have been two to three years ago. He only has one year remaining on his contract before hitting free agency. The Senators don’t have to trade him. Thus, the cost to acquire him just may not make sense at the end of the day. LA can’t afford to trade this year’s first round pick for essentially a rental. And if you take Byfield and Brandt Clarke off the table (two of the team’s three untouchable younger players), a deal may be hard to come by. However, if the two sides could somehow get an extension worked out, then LA’s 2025 first rounder might be in play as part of a package.
• Could Tyler Toffoli return as the UFA who moves into a top-6 role? It’s the name we hinted at a few weeks ago and continue to hear there’s a possibility. There are several ways to get there, including having Fiala play LW.
• Earlier this week, forward Jake Guentzel entered the chat. We talked about this option quite a bit on the latest Kings Of The Podcast (link). LA is rumored to be interested in the 29-year-old forward, and why wouldn’t they be? He has 67 points in 69 career playoff games, including 38 goals. Listening to Blake talk at his end of season press conference, that’s the type of player the Kings need, and perhaps even several of them. Landing his services could create the challenge. Guentzel is believed to be seeking a deal that will pay him around $9M annually. How much of an appetite do the Kings have this summer to sign up for another long-term, big money deal? To do so, could involve moving a significant player off the current roster. Or… from a purely cap perspective, there could be a light at the end of the tunnel. Take $3M from the remaining pool of money, and another $1M from the projected spend on a new LHD, couple that with the money allocated at RW2 and they’d be in the Guentzel ballpark. It seems like a longshot, yet anything is possible when it comes to the NHL’s silly season.
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