Will there be a magic number thread this season?

  • Thread starter Thread starter Busted Chops
  • Start date Start date
hokiecat said:
No offense, but I trust a computer model running a Monte Carlo simulation of all the remaining games with weighting of each team's performance to date over your gut or my gut. The Athletic model has our odds at 88%.
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The Kings have been due for a regression for some time now. Anyone's gut can see that. With all the stop gaps and injuries, an almost invisible 1st and 3rd lines, horrible special teams, the team may be getting the points but a turn around in fortune has been in the cards for sometime now. The "Monte Carlo" simulation doesn't take that into account but reason and observation sure do. Reason and history also tells you the Kings remaining games vs. the Ducks, Hawks, and Seattle that the "simulation" will slant to the Kings, will be played at playoff level for those teams who will be quite eager to spoil the Kings party. I believe we are looking at the beginning of a major reversal that has been a long time coming unfortunately.

The only silver lining right now is that Vegas doesn't exactly look like they are ready to go on a tear. Hopefully the Kings can hold on for dear life.
 
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Pickle_Pucks said:
The Kings have been due for a regression for some time now. Anyone's gut can see that. With all the stop gaps and injuries, an almost invisible 1st and 3rd lines, horrible special teams, the team may be getting the points but a turn around in fortune has been in the cards for sometime now. The "Monte Carlo" simulation doesn't take that into account but reason and observation sure do. Reason and history also tells you the Kings remaining games vs. the Ducks, Hawks, and Seattle that the "simulation" will slant to the Kings, will be played at playoff level for those teams who will be quite eager to spoil the Kings party. I believe we are looking at the beginning of a major reversal that has been a long time coming unfortunately.

The only silver lining right now is that Vegas doesn't exactly look like they are ready to go on a tear. Hopefully the Kings can hold on for dear life.
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With both Dallas and Nashville both playing better hockey than the Kings right now, hanging onto that #3 spot in the Pacific is the Kings only hope.
 
Sevenhole said:
I have always watched the sportsclubstats website to monitor playoff stats and percentages. Today they have the kings at 90.8 percent chance to make the playoffs. Knights are at 37.9 percent.
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Pickle_Pucks said:
These numbers seems outrageously slanted. As things stand, considering games in hand it looks like the wild card spots are highly likely to come from the Central. So if the Kings lose 2 in a row and Vegas wins 2 in a row, everything is suddenly up for grabs, a coin flip at the end of the day.

Based on common sense and the "eye test" I put the Kings' chances at around 70-75% at the moment. But like I said, a 2 or 3 game slide and that number can drop dramatically. Thrilling playoff race at the end of the day.
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Clif said:
This site tracks magic numbers: https://www.playoffmagic.com/nhl/division/

With a magic number at 24 against the Knights, Kings could go a poor 7-8 in their last games remaining (15) and Vegas could go a winning 9-5 in theirs (14) and it would still put the Kings ahead by a point.

I don’t understand how where the 90.8% chance comes from and like anyone else I won’t feel comfortable ‘til I see they clinched a spot in the division. But look at this way:

Kings have a .604 points percentage at 81/134 (earned/possible). Going 7-8 is only 14/30, good for .466.

Vegas is at .559 for a 76/136 spread. Getting 18 out of 28 points possible is .649, practically in Calgary territory. And it wouldn’t be good enough.

What are the odds, given the schedules for both teams remaining, that Kings go that bad and Vegas goes that good? I don’t know if it’s 91%. But Kings hold their fate in their own hands and Vegas doesn’t.
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santiclaws said:
You just explained where that 90.8% chance comes from. Given their .604 win percentage so far this season, it is very unlikely that the Kings will do worse than 7-8 (.466) over their last 15. Given their .559 so far this season, it is very unlikely that the Knights will do better than 9-5 (.600) over their last 14. There's your 91% chance.
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This whole discussion is a pretty good indication of just how much the average person can't come to grips with what odds percentages indicate. Disentangling emotion and certainty from numbers is simply tough, especially since people are trying to apply a single outcome that they are vested in from information that's based on 10,000 repetitions of a similar event. The 1 in 10 chance that the kings miss the playoffs is much more real for any fan who remembers an instance of the kings blowing a playoff position in the second half. The idea that they really are in 9 of 10 times is foreign to the fan who doesn't identify this team with the last sustained playoff qualifying teams.
 
Pickle_Pucks said:
The Kings have been due for a regression for some time now. Anyone's gut can see that. With all the stop gaps and injuries, an almost invisible 1st and 3rd lines, horrible special teams, the team may be getting the points but a turn around in fortune has been in the cards for sometime now. The "Monte Carlo" simulation doesn't take that into account but reason and observation sure do. Reason and history also tells you the Kings remaining games vs. the Ducks, Hawks, and Seattle that the "simulation" will slant to the Kings, will be played at playoff level for those teams who will be quite eager to spoil the Kings party. I believe we are looking at the beginning of a major reversal that has been a long time coming unfortunately.

The only silver lining right now is that Vegas doesn't exactly look like they are ready to go on a tear. Hopefully the Kings can hold on for dear life.
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You're making a lot of assertions here with zero evidence to back up your claims. My gut does not see what you're seeing. The 3rd line has been invisible all season, so why does it matter now? Special teams has been bad all season. So why does it matter now? You're suggesting that the Ducks, Hawks, and Seattle are all now going to play at a high level because... history? What history? I would argue that teams that play poorly for 60-70 games are very unlikely to suddenly get good... (especially after trading away better players)

You might "believe" that the Kings are suddenly going to come crashing down, but there is no reason to expect that outcome based on what they've done so far this season. The kings played part of the season without Doughty. They played part of the season with Arvidsson doing very little in terms of production on the 1st line. The reasons you're giving for the team to "regress" have been happening all season. So, what the numbers are actually showing us is that this team should continue to play like they've played, more or less, all season. There is about a 10% chance that the Kings play poorly enough, and Vegas plays well enough, the the Kings fall out of the playoffs. That is what the numbers suggest.

And to be clear, so that we're using the correct terminology... That would be a "collapse", not a "regression". Regression is when a team is winning at a rate above what the stats suggest they should be winning at. In the case of the Kings, when you look at the indicators for success in this league, the Kings are where they should be. they are playing well. They are earning the points they should be earning. So there is no "regression" that is expected.
 
Busted Chops said:
Seeing that the Kings have a strong chance of making the playoffs, I?m hoping someone can do a magic number thread. It?s been so long that I cannot even remember the logic or the method to run it.

Thanks in advance to anyone willing to take it on.
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BANISH CHOPS! Posts this "Magic Number" thread at 10:51 am MONDAY - KINGS give up a goal 14 seconds into the game!

Get Blown Out!

#BanishChops
 
Rogie-Vachon said:
#BanishChops
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My first hashtag aimed at me. This is special!

Thanks Rogie!

That said. I am highly superstitious when it comes to hockey and really did not think hoping for a magic number thread would p*ss off the hockey gods. My bad.
 
VCRW said:
With both Dallas and Nashville both playing better hockey than the Kings right now, hanging onto that #3 spot in the Pacific is the Kings only hope.
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Two added bonuses: avoiding CGY or COL and keeping the Knights out!
 
my favorite part about Vegas's predicament is that they shot themselves in the foot trying to skirt the cap. They cant bring Stone or Martinez back for this stretch run. Couldn't have happened to a better fan base...
 
Helvetica said:
my favorite part about Vegas's predicament is that they shot themselves in the foot trying to skirt the cap. They cant bring Stone or Martinez back for this stretch run. Couldn't have happened to a better fan base...
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Honestly that management group deserves just as much if not more of the Karma. I'm not going to blame a fan base for catching lighting in a bottle, a management group that then pisses in that bottle though...
 
jammer06 said:
Honestly that management group deserves just as much if not more of the Karma. I'm not going to blame a fan base for catching lighting in a bottle, a management group that then pisses in that bottle though...
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There's enough karma to go around.
 
Helvetica said:
my favorite part about Vegas's predicament is that they shot themselves in the foot trying to skirt the cap. They cant bring Stone or Martinez back for this stretch run. Couldn't have happened to a better fan base...
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Martinez is already playing...
 
Edmonton is playing well right now so can't expect to hold them off for 2nd. Calgary is just trying to get through the rest of the season without injury as they are a team that can win it all. I hope the Kings have not run out of gas. With all the injuries they have suffered, that takes a toll and the Kings are not a big bodied team that can wear you down. I won't be upset if they don't make it as this season was set with zero expectations and they achieved more than I thought they would. Heck they are still in a playoff race in March when some of us thought it would be late December that they would fall out. 13 more games and it has been a fun ride.
 
Ice24 said:
Edmonton is playing well right now so can't expect to hold them off for 2nd. Calgary is just trying to get through the rest of the season without injury as they are a team that can win it all. I hope the Kings have not run out of gas. With all the injuries they have suffered, that takes a toll and the Kings are not a big bodied team that can wear you down. I won't be upset if they don't make it as this season was set with zero expectations and they achieved more than I thought they would. Heck they are still in a playoff race in March when some of us thought it would be late December that they would fall out. 13 more games and it has been a fun ride.
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I don't think we've run out of gas. I think we've run out of players.

Team seems to play better on the road and against better teams. But 2 points on this road trip is probably what we are looking at.

I think it comes down to us against Vegas for the last spot in the Pacific, which will be the third position and our first round opponent would be Edmonton. We are 5 points ahead of Vegas, but they have 1 more ROW and their schedule is much easier that ours. Our next 6 games are brutal. Vegas plays Vancouver 3 times, Seattle twice and Arizona once.
 
HeadInjury said:
I don't think we've run out of gas. I think we've run out of players.

Team seems to play better on the road and against better teams. But 2 points on this road trip is probably what we are looking at.

I think it comes down to us against Vegas for the last spot in the Pacific, which will be the third position and our first round opponent would be Edmonton. We are 5 points ahead of Vegas, but they have 1 more ROW and their schedule is much easier that ours. Our next 6 games are brutal. Vegas plays Vancouver 3 times, Seattle twice and Arizona once.
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Since that didn’t age too well, has your thinking changed now that the road trip is over?
 
14 now. Kings win 5 and Vegas loses two in regulation and that’s a wrap.

Not putting my money anywhere but after all the recent heartache it’s crazy to think Kings are still in a better position than Vegas.
 
I guess if there is a silver lining to Vegas and Edmonton winning tonight it's that they beat the other 2 teams that the Kings will have to fight for a Wild Card spot.
 
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Well, let's see. The Nashville and Dallas are a point ahead of the Kings with each having TWO games in hand. With the Golden Showers winning tonight that puts them a point behind the Kings with ONE game in hand. Fortunately the Kings schedule seems rather easy and Vegas' schedule seems harder than the Kings so there's that. Unfortunately, they play Dallas once so if that ends in OT the Pity Point doesn't help the Kings. However, Nashville and Dallas do not play each other so that's a good thing (for similar reasons). Should be a fun ending to the season....

jom
 
We may be ahead but it’s still going to take a miracle for us to make it. Vegas one point behind with a game in hand is basically them one point ahead of us. They are playing too damn good. Here’s what really works in our favour sadly - the upper teams would way rather deal with the Kings and a nice, easy sweep than Vegas. So if they get the chance to beat Vegas they should give their all.
 
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