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Top Forward
- Joined
- Sep 2, 2011
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- 4,907
The last couple seasons ive written posts at around the 10 game mark going over my thoughts on the team... how are they doing, what to look for and what trends im looking at going forward. Basically, what are the big storylines to watch this season...
• Goaltending - Cam is playing better than i expected. Just by the numbers (GAA=2.14 - SV%.923 - GSAA=4.7) he's playing incredibly well. I think his numbers will likely trend down a bit as the season continues, but if he can play near what he's doing now, i think the team is in real good shape. On the other end of the the spectrum... Copley. He's only played three games, so his numbers dont really have the broad context you'd like to make a fair analysis, but the simple fact is, by the numbers (GAA=4.98 - SV%.788 - GSAA=-6), he's been awful. He's essentially last in the league. And the big problem here is that Cam is old. At 36 yrs old, there's a real risk of overplaying him if Copley cant climb back up to at least what he was doing last season. You can't go into the playoffs with your starter worn down. So keep an eye on this, because this situation still has the potential to cause some serious issues this season. It wouldn't be shocking if Cam were to slide down if they cant get him the proper rest throughout the season, or even if he just really isn't as good as he's playing right now. Im not going to make any predictions here because i think it's way too early to do so, but I won't be shocked if we see copley sent down, or a trade made at the deadline if he cant pick it up.
All this to say, goaltending has been an issue teh last couple seasons, and i think its' got teh potential to be an issue this season too. And that shouldnt be big news considering how little we're spending in net.
Pierre Luc Dubois - I'll keep it simple on this. Hasn't been good enough so far. Was basically invisible against the flyers. And im not really even concerned about production, as Fiala has had a slow start too. Arvidsson has been out. Laf is playing well but you can't exactly expect a rookie to drive the line. PLD just looks like he's kind of... floating. He never looks like he has urgency out there. He's a very skilled player, with a big body, and i do think he plays a smooth game, so sometimes it's easy to mistake that for lack of effort. But... i don't think he's found whatever it is he needs to find to raise his game a bit to where it needs to be. When i looked into him after the trade, ive seen him use his body to play physical. Ive seen him get under guy's' skin. I've seen him push people around. I'd like to see some of that. In all fairness, this is a new team and he's probably still getting used to the system a bit. Additionally, Fiala has been slow to start, and maybe that's chemistry i dont know, but all in all this line has potential for quite a bit more, and i think PLD has to spearhead that push. With that said, just his presence has provided the Kings with exceptional depth amongst the forwards, and even when he's not maybe doing more, he's allowing other lines a bit more freedom as teams still have to consider putting strong defense against this line.
Byfield - There will be no told you so's here... but he's doing everything we all hoped to see this season, and some of us maybe expected to some degree. He's top 5 on the team in points, despite playing on 2nd PP. And his role is definitely more of a puck hound and playmaker right now. He's absolutely flying out there and he's creating plays even if they aren't necessarily going into the net off his stick. My one concern right now is that his shot rate is basically the same as last year, although his shooting% is up. We all want him to score more, but it's tough when you're the first guy on the puck down in the offensive zone (your positioned to pass), the team's best pure shooter has 3 times as many shots as you and plays on your line, and you play more of a netfront/downlow position on PP2. With all that said, he could hit about 15 goals this season, and coupled with what should be a somewhere around 50 assists... i think we all have to be happy with that. All i care about is that he stays healthy, and keeps his foot on the gas. If those two things happen, it's going to be abig season for him and i think he proves pretty much all of his doubters wrong. Because at 21 yrs old, and a rough, injury filled start to his career... he's got a lot of potential still left in front of him.
Defense - Im throwing this all into one bucket because... why not. I think teh only guys who havent looked better than i expected are Roy and Gavrikov, and that's because i had high expectations for them. Doughty looks energized. ROy/Gav are playing very solid. Englund looks better than i think any of us expected, although admittedly the bar was quite low. And Spence has done everything i think we'd hoped he'd do. I do not miss Durzi at all, although i do wish him the best. I enjoyed his time here. I loved his tenacity and grit. But there have been no boneheaded plays so far, and those were a frequent occurrence last season. It was exciting, but you never knew what was going to happen sometimes. Spence has done as good a job offensively, and has been just so so much better on the defensive side of the puck. Now, that's not to say he's been perfect,and that bottom pair has been heavily sheltered, but i like what iovce seen so far and im kind of excited to revisit him at the end of the season. Let's be honest... how many of us have almost forgotten about clarke to some degree? Not that I want to, but simply because the defense has looked good.
Powerplay - I have to assume that some of the early struggles can be attributed to the lack of right shot players (Vilardi and Arvidsson), but the team looks to have changed things on it's entry a bit, generally going with two guys back to drop pass to. Maybe the players are still becoming familiar with smaller changes im not picking up on, but they do not look like they are carrying as much speed through the neutral zone, and they look spread out and stagnant in the zone. They havent been awful, but they are below league average.
Penalty Kill - Well, they're better this season. From what i can tell they've simply decided to take away the middle of the ice, play a bit less aggressive, although im not sure that's the best description. From what i can see, they play a tight box that sometimes is a diamond, and it seems to be fluid based on reads. Seems like they are basically playing the numbers game. Take away the dangerous areas. They might still get beat by great plays, but over time, it probably winds up being the option that concedes the least amount of goals. I'd love to hear others thought on what they are doing here.
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Closing Thoughts
This team has depth to go deep this season. The ability to roll lines and still match up well is going to be what separates this team from last season's team. It may seem small, but having PLD on the 3rd line and lizotte on the 4th line makes such a huge difference. It reminds me of when the Kings brought in Mike Richards, and allowed Stoll to move to 3C. It puts players in roles best suited to their strengths, and it creates real mismatches for other teams. We're seeing that now with a 4th line that is hard on pucks and tenacious, and makes the right plays. Lizotte isnt out there trying to keep up with Fiala. He isn't out there stressed with needing to chip in more offensively that he's really capable of. And the 3rd line, despite starting slow in general, is a line that most teams simply cannot ignore.
I think this team is definitely competing for the 2nd/3rd spot in the division again, although if vegas finally comes down to earth i wouldnt be shocked to see the Kings give them a run for the top spot. The rest of the division is really weird right now. No way Anaheim, Vancouver, or Edmonton continue on their current trends. My one concern is (knock wood) an injury to Gavrikov. I think Englund looks great in that bottom pair role, but i cannot fathom him or Bjornfot playing 2nd pair for an extended amount of time. But overall im really excited about this season. I think we finally break through. That's my prediction.
• Goaltending - Cam is playing better than i expected. Just by the numbers (GAA=2.14 - SV%.923 - GSAA=4.7) he's playing incredibly well. I think his numbers will likely trend down a bit as the season continues, but if he can play near what he's doing now, i think the team is in real good shape. On the other end of the the spectrum... Copley. He's only played three games, so his numbers dont really have the broad context you'd like to make a fair analysis, but the simple fact is, by the numbers (GAA=4.98 - SV%.788 - GSAA=-6), he's been awful. He's essentially last in the league. And the big problem here is that Cam is old. At 36 yrs old, there's a real risk of overplaying him if Copley cant climb back up to at least what he was doing last season. You can't go into the playoffs with your starter worn down. So keep an eye on this, because this situation still has the potential to cause some serious issues this season. It wouldn't be shocking if Cam were to slide down if they cant get him the proper rest throughout the season, or even if he just really isn't as good as he's playing right now. Im not going to make any predictions here because i think it's way too early to do so, but I won't be shocked if we see copley sent down, or a trade made at the deadline if he cant pick it up.
All this to say, goaltending has been an issue teh last couple seasons, and i think its' got teh potential to be an issue this season too. And that shouldnt be big news considering how little we're spending in net.
Pierre Luc Dubois - I'll keep it simple on this. Hasn't been good enough so far. Was basically invisible against the flyers. And im not really even concerned about production, as Fiala has had a slow start too. Arvidsson has been out. Laf is playing well but you can't exactly expect a rookie to drive the line. PLD just looks like he's kind of... floating. He never looks like he has urgency out there. He's a very skilled player, with a big body, and i do think he plays a smooth game, so sometimes it's easy to mistake that for lack of effort. But... i don't think he's found whatever it is he needs to find to raise his game a bit to where it needs to be. When i looked into him after the trade, ive seen him use his body to play physical. Ive seen him get under guy's' skin. I've seen him push people around. I'd like to see some of that. In all fairness, this is a new team and he's probably still getting used to the system a bit. Additionally, Fiala has been slow to start, and maybe that's chemistry i dont know, but all in all this line has potential for quite a bit more, and i think PLD has to spearhead that push. With that said, just his presence has provided the Kings with exceptional depth amongst the forwards, and even when he's not maybe doing more, he's allowing other lines a bit more freedom as teams still have to consider putting strong defense against this line.
Byfield - There will be no told you so's here... but he's doing everything we all hoped to see this season, and some of us maybe expected to some degree. He's top 5 on the team in points, despite playing on 2nd PP. And his role is definitely more of a puck hound and playmaker right now. He's absolutely flying out there and he's creating plays even if they aren't necessarily going into the net off his stick. My one concern right now is that his shot rate is basically the same as last year, although his shooting% is up. We all want him to score more, but it's tough when you're the first guy on the puck down in the offensive zone (your positioned to pass), the team's best pure shooter has 3 times as many shots as you and plays on your line, and you play more of a netfront/downlow position on PP2. With all that said, he could hit about 15 goals this season, and coupled with what should be a somewhere around 50 assists... i think we all have to be happy with that. All i care about is that he stays healthy, and keeps his foot on the gas. If those two things happen, it's going to be abig season for him and i think he proves pretty much all of his doubters wrong. Because at 21 yrs old, and a rough, injury filled start to his career... he's got a lot of potential still left in front of him.
Defense - Im throwing this all into one bucket because... why not. I think teh only guys who havent looked better than i expected are Roy and Gavrikov, and that's because i had high expectations for them. Doughty looks energized. ROy/Gav are playing very solid. Englund looks better than i think any of us expected, although admittedly the bar was quite low. And Spence has done everything i think we'd hoped he'd do. I do not miss Durzi at all, although i do wish him the best. I enjoyed his time here. I loved his tenacity and grit. But there have been no boneheaded plays so far, and those were a frequent occurrence last season. It was exciting, but you never knew what was going to happen sometimes. Spence has done as good a job offensively, and has been just so so much better on the defensive side of the puck. Now, that's not to say he's been perfect,and that bottom pair has been heavily sheltered, but i like what iovce seen so far and im kind of excited to revisit him at the end of the season. Let's be honest... how many of us have almost forgotten about clarke to some degree? Not that I want to, but simply because the defense has looked good.
Powerplay - I have to assume that some of the early struggles can be attributed to the lack of right shot players (Vilardi and Arvidsson), but the team looks to have changed things on it's entry a bit, generally going with two guys back to drop pass to. Maybe the players are still becoming familiar with smaller changes im not picking up on, but they do not look like they are carrying as much speed through the neutral zone, and they look spread out and stagnant in the zone. They havent been awful, but they are below league average.
Penalty Kill - Well, they're better this season. From what i can tell they've simply decided to take away the middle of the ice, play a bit less aggressive, although im not sure that's the best description. From what i can see, they play a tight box that sometimes is a diamond, and it seems to be fluid based on reads. Seems like they are basically playing the numbers game. Take away the dangerous areas. They might still get beat by great plays, but over time, it probably winds up being the option that concedes the least amount of goals. I'd love to hear others thought on what they are doing here.
-------------------------------------
Closing Thoughts
This team has depth to go deep this season. The ability to roll lines and still match up well is going to be what separates this team from last season's team. It may seem small, but having PLD on the 3rd line and lizotte on the 4th line makes such a huge difference. It reminds me of when the Kings brought in Mike Richards, and allowed Stoll to move to 3C. It puts players in roles best suited to their strengths, and it creates real mismatches for other teams. We're seeing that now with a 4th line that is hard on pucks and tenacious, and makes the right plays. Lizotte isnt out there trying to keep up with Fiala. He isn't out there stressed with needing to chip in more offensively that he's really capable of. And the 3rd line, despite starting slow in general, is a line that most teams simply cannot ignore.
I think this team is definitely competing for the 2nd/3rd spot in the division again, although if vegas finally comes down to earth i wouldnt be shocked to see the Kings give them a run for the top spot. The rest of the division is really weird right now. No way Anaheim, Vancouver, or Edmonton continue on their current trends. My one concern is (knock wood) an injury to Gavrikov. I think Englund looks great in that bottom pair role, but i cannot fathom him or Bjornfot playing 2nd pair for an extended amount of time. But overall im really excited about this season. I think we finally break through. That's my prediction.
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He put in a lot of work this summer and it shows.
