Thoughts on the Team at 11 games - Mid Season Update

Very impressive road trip. Was nervous the latter part of the Ottawa game, but they were dominant in the Philly and Toronto games.

What stands out the most for me is the confidence the D has with Talbot. His solid play has allowed the D to focus on their role in front of him, and that has resulted in very solid D so far. It haven't really seen anyone on D make any panicked plays...Roy looks like he's been playing D for 15 years out there.

PP needs work.

PK is better than last year so far, but then again, it's too early in the season.

PLD is um...not comfortable in the system yet? Yeah...let's go with that.

I am really missing Arvy; that Moore-Danault-Arvy line last year was so fun to watch.

Danault has had a slow start, but he'll come around.

Moore is solid. Love that guy.

Lizotte is everywhere...doing everything...seemingly...wait for it...all at once. I love his energy and his tenacity.

What I am most happy about so far this season is Edmonton looking like sh1t.
 
Great analysis. The one thing tugging back my optimism is the Kings overall sky high shooting percentage hasn't abated. At 13% its 3-4% higher than theyve shot historically (which is in line with the league average). Doesn't sound like a lot but at their shot rate its 10 goals extra, in 11 games. Thats 1 extra goal per game. Its not sustainable. Have they needed those 10 extra goals? Hard to say.

The other part that we knew would be tough was playing 4 of last years division winners so early (and teams that are back at the stop of the standings again already). The took 2 of 8 points in those games. So the team isn't elite yet to play with the biggest boys. But they're taking care of business against the teams they are supposed to take care of business against. They keep doing that and they could finish November on pace for 114 points after a quarter of the season. Not only that but the only pacific foe they'll have faced is Vegas. They will absolutely be in the drivers seat for the Pacific division home ice slots.

Sean McIndoe does a weekly write up of the top 5 cup contenders (and top 5 lotto picks) but highlighted the Kings today with the following comments:

Not ranked: Los Angeles Kings — I don’t think you could call the Kings’ hot start unexpected. After all, this is a good team coming off two straight playoff appearances, they had some good young players whose aging curves are still pointing up, and they’d made a big offseason trade to get even better. If it worked, they’d be pushing for home ice.

So far it’s working, to the tune of seven wins in 11 games, including three straight. And of those four losses, two were in shootouts to the Carolina Hurricanes and Knights while the two that involved actual hockey came against the Avalanche and Bruins. It’s a small sample size, but you could use those results to sketch out an easy narrative that the Kings are good, just not quite good enough to be considered elite contenders. That’s probably fair, if a little lazy. But there’s at least an argument to be made that they’re even better than their record says they are. The underlying numbers, both in terms of simple possession and expected goals, are well over 50 percent, with the latter drifting into the very low 60s depending on which sites you look at. They’re scoring a lot without relying on a dominant power play, which tends to be more sustainable than the other way around. Quinton Byfield is starting to look like a genuine threat, and PL Dubois might get better as he settles in.
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That’s the optimist’s view. The flip side is that a team shooting percentage hovering around 13 percent won’t last, and maybe Cam Talbot’s strong play won’t either given what last season looked like. Still, there’s very little evidence that points to the Kings being any kind of a fraud. And with the Flames and Oilers flatlining and the Sharks an absolute disaster, it’s worth pointing out that the Kings haven’t even played a Pacific team other than the Knights yet. Vegas might be pulling away, but that path to home ice is right there for the taking. Can they do it? I think so, although there’s a long way to go. They’re off until Wednesday, when they get another shot at the Knights, this time in Vegas. That should be a fun one, and maybe a chance to see just how real this start has been.
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theathletic.com

Weekend NHL rankings: West Coast positivity, plus 5 teams that should be panicking

The “it’s still early” train has left the station, and it’s time to worry. So let’s check in with an early (but not that early) panic index.
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So yeah I repackaged what he said, but its because they are good points at how to look at a season so far. What isn't said is that in terms of things for Blake to do, his biggest decisions are on VA and Roy. Both of which I think will be own rentals in regards to the trade deadline. Hopefully we can get VA back after the regular season cap rules kick in. We still haven't heard a lot of timeline concerning his back surgery. For Roy, I just don't think there's a reason to extend him when he's obviously playing like hes up for a new contract. There's time before July 1 to make those decisions. Which means really what happens is we are all hopefully looking at the trade deadline for either adding a backup goalie, or maybe some size to mix in for the 4th line as the extra skater. All of this is very important because while the kings still have their 2024 1st rounder, they don't have much else. The 2nd, 3rd and 5th have already been traded. You don't want to go into a draft with 3 picks, the highest of which is a 4th.
 
jammer06 said:
The one thing tugging back my optimism is the Kings overall sky high shooting percentage...
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totally. I think you mentioned that a couple weeks back, and id definitely like to see if their shot quality and high danger chances are up as well, because i think they are. I wouldn't be surprised if the S% comes down a touch, but it may not dip drastically if they continue to get shots from the more dangerous spots on the ice. With that said, some guy's S% are bound to come down, but.. Fiala is currently shooting at 3.4%, and he takes a lot of shots, so there's a chance to offset some regression elsewhere.

As for Arvidsson and Roy, and trades in general, i agree. People have speculated that one or both of roy will be traded,and that just doenst make any sense to me. I dont think arvidsson is with the team next season, but i think he walks. Roy, on the other hand, feels more likely to be extended to me. Whether that happens in season or not, i cant say. But given just how strong he and gavrikov have been, i could see blake wanting to keep them together. But there's a lot to consider there (cap as well as the need to find space for clarke and spence) and playoffs to play. No immediate decision needed even if i do think they bring him back.

But given how the team looks right now, if push comes to shove, id consider trading Arvidsson in season despite how much i like him. But if you manage to bring back a solid backup goalie, or even a potential starter, that's something i consider. With that said, it's not a decision i make immediately. I want to see more of laferriere. I want to see another 20 games. I want to see how talbot and copley perform, potential injuries, etc... there's no rush there.
 
I pretty much agree with all the thoughts here it's all been stated. PLD is there in his presence alone is enough to help our depth even though he's not lighting up the scoreboard just yet.

Ask for byfield, I've been hard on him but I'm seeing a great playmaker and he's make great use of his bigger size and frame which I'm very impressed by his growth, but his l shot and dekes are underwhelming it seems like it's something you either have or you don't... I'm not saying flashes like early Kopi on the scoring side.
 
Helvetica said:
Penalty Kill - Well, they're better this season. From what i can tell they've simply decided to take away the middle of the ice, play a bit less aggressive, although im not sure that's the best description. From what i can see, they play a tight box that sometimes is a diamond, and it seems to be fluid based on reads. Seems like they are basically playing the numbers game. Take away the dangerous areas. They might still get beat by great plays, but over time, it probably winds up being the option that concedes the least amount of goals. I'd love to hear others thought on what they are doing here.
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When I was at training camp and they were first practicing this PK, from what I could hear that McLellan was telling them, they are playing it as if every guy is facing their own individual 2 on 1 - so, every time the puck is near you, you play it as a 2 on 1 with the 2 guys closest to you. And everyone else is prepping for their own little "personal 2 on 1" This is why they are not moving around as much or even being as aggressive.
If I understood correctly, McLellan did NOT want them to let the puck get behind the net or even down into the corners (as much as possible), and this seems to be what they are doing well. So, a lot different from last year's "pass it around behind the net and hope the guy on the other side can clear it out". It's going pretty well in my opinion. I know people think they aren't being aggressive enough, but that's not the point with this PK style. It's much more puck focused/don't let passes happen rather than "go get the puck off that guy's stick".
 
Nyssa42 said:
When I was at training camp and they were first practicing this PK, from what I could hear that McLellan was telling them, they are playing it as if every guy is facing their own individual 2 on 1 - so, every time the puck is near you, you play it as a 2 on 1 with the 2 guys closest to you. And everyone else is prepping for their own little "personal 2 on 1" This is why they are not moving around as much or even being as aggressive.
If I understood correctly, McLellan did NOT want them to let the puck get behind the net or even down into the corners (as much as possible), and this seems to be what they are doing well. So, a lot different from last year's "pass it around behind the net and hope the guy on the other side can clear it out". It's going pretty well in my opinion. I know people think they aren't being aggressive enough, but that's not the point with this PK style. It's much more puck focused/don't let passes happen rather than "go get the puck off that guy's stick".
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From a goalies perspective, this is a much preferred PK system. They can face the shooter, be a little bit more aggressive and not have to worry as much about the easy backdoor tap-in. Which, by the way, is what killed them in the playoffs last year on the PK.
 
Nyssa42 said:
When I was at training camp and they were first practicing this PK, from what I could hear that McLellan was telling them, they are playing it as if every guy is facing their own individual 2 on 1 - so, every time the puck is near you, you play it as a 2 on 1 with the 2 guys closest to you. And everyone else is prepping for their own little "personal 2 on 1" This is why they are not moving around as much or even being as aggressive.
If I understood correctly, McLellan did NOT want them to let the puck get behind the net or even down into the corners (as much as possible), and this seems to be what they are doing well. So, a lot different from last year's "pass it around behind the net and hope the guy on the other side can clear it out". It's going pretty well in my opinion. I know people think they aren't being aggressive enough, but that's not the point with this PK style. It's much more puck focused/don't let passes happen rather than "go get the puck off that guy's stick".
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yeah, i didnt really want to imply they are playing passive, because there seems to be a lot of active reads and adjusting on the fly, but they dont seem to push hard anywhere above the circles. So thanks for the info there, it's definitely something to watch this season.
 
rinkrat said:
I watch the broadcasts of the opposing and they are giving the Kings mad respect as a group and individually. The most common being the depth at center and the threat from all four lines.
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ive been mostly watching opposing team feeds as well, and ive definitely noticed a lot of praise for the depth, the strength at center, Byfield's improvement, and the overall job by rob blake. It's felt like a fresh perspective from a lot of the negative opinions you find on kings fan boards.
 
MiketheKing said:
I pretty much agree with all the thoughts here it's all been stated. PLD is there in his presence alone is enough to help our depth even though he's not lighting up the scoreboard just yet.

Ask for byfield, I've been hard on him but I'm seeing a great playmaker and he's make great use of his bigger size and frame which I'm very impressed by his growth, but his l shot and dekes are underwhelming it seems like it's something you either have or you don't... I'm not saying flashes like early Kopi on the scoring side.
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he does not have a lethal shot, but i've seen enough that i do believe he can be a consistent 20-25g scorer along with a lot of assists. The bigger issue though, for me, is that he isnt taking enough shots. His shot rate is a 1/3rd of what kempe has, so it's not necessarily about scoring goals, as it is keeping opponents guessing by being willing to shoot the puck. We dont need him to be a 40g scorer, we just need him to make the right read. Shoot when that is the best option. I think he gets there.
 
PL is making a difference in that just being out there slots everybody in the right places and that makes it harder for the other teams to match up and with the depth makes the offense that much better.
I was watching an interview with Jim Fox and he was giving 40 games to evaluate whether the new systems, PL etc are working. So us regular people can give PL more than 11 games to make a conclusion.
 
jcwla said:
What I notice is that Vancouver and suddenly the Ducks are basically right there with us so no time for self-congratulation.
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Fortunately we don’t play Vancouver until late feb, twice in March, and once in April. We play the ducks twice in April, so perhaps both teams will have a chance to cool down and come back to earth before we see much of them. Especially Vancouver..
 
Clif said:
Great post. I was hoping Kings would be at .500 after the first 12 games. Given their slow starts the last couple seasons plus AUS, questionable goaltending, and the strength of schedule I wasn’t optimistic. Really impressive the way this team has instantly played to an “identity” and totally bought in to their structure.

Talbot is of course better than expected. Not worried about Copley since Rittich is ready and Blake won’t think twice about making that switch. How he handled goalies last year shows he’s not nostalgic. Don’t know how many more bad starts Copley gets until that happens but it can’t be more than 2-3.
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Agree w the Rittich card
 
Jay Wells said:
PL is making a difference in that just being out there slots everybody in the right places and that makes it harder for the other teams to match up and with the depth makes the offense that much better.
I was watching an interview with Jim Fox and he was giving 40 games to evaluate whether the new systems, PL etc are working. So us regular people can give PL more than 11 games to make a conclusion.
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regular people?

I thought we were the chosen Seers?
Not Sears, they're basically out of business
 
Bumping this to include my thoughts at mid season, mostly for my own benefit because i like to see how things evolve, both for the team and my opinions, over the course of the season.

• Goaltending: I've been chatting with a few posters here over the course of the season, and i think ive finally solidified my thoughts on the Kings goalie situation. The Kings have soundly identified NHL average goaltending, maybe even slightly below average. I think guys like Cam, Rittich, and Copper are all guys that play calm, positionally sound, goaltending (generally speaking). None of them look like guys that are going to go out there and really steal games with any consistency. Rittich has done pretty well over his stretch lately. Cam started the season pretty hot. Copper never looked all that great to me this season. But i think ultimately, what sets these guys apart from a top flight goalie is that they need the Kings to play well in front of them to be successful. They are pretty unlikely to bail out the team when the team is playing bad defense. It can happen, but i think any NHL goalie has the ability to steal a game from time to time. The great goalies just do it more often and more consistently. The Kings don't have that, and it can be a problem, although i wouldn't really pin any of the Kings woes on our goaltending per se. I definitely see the need now for a top flight goalie if the Kings are likely to go deep in the playoffs. It's possible that one of their current goalies goes on a tear, but more likely is that the players in front of them are going to have to step up their game in order for the Kings to be successful in the playoffs.

• PLD: It feels like he's starting to come around here these past few games. I said at the beginning of the season that playing on 3rd line and PP2, i dont expect his production to be high, but i do expect him to have an impact on the game. And he's finally doing that. It's unfortunate the team had to fire coach to get this guy to move his feet, but here we are. If he can mostly play like we're seeing him play currently, i think that goes along ways towards righting the ship.

• Byfield: Yeeeessssss. Man is he playing well. The points are coming. His play has been consistently great. He's been the best player out there on some nights. I expected more points for him this season (than last), but i was still concerned about his goal scoring to start the season. He's been far better on his shot than i expected, with a stellar S% of ~17%. But more importantly, he's shooting more, which is what it takes to score in this league. Last season in 53 games, he shot the puck 74 times. This season, in 49 games, he's got 100 shots. He's on a 65 pt pace for the season, and if Kempe's S%/Goals wasn't down a bit, he'd probably hit 70 pts on the season. I have literally zero to complain about, and everything to be excited for with this guy. He's even looked good at center in those couple of games he's played at spot duty.

• Defense: I dont think my feelings here have changed too much. Solid core. I think this is a group that can carry us deep. With that said, it's not elite, in that we still lack an elite puck mover. More on that below.

• Powerplay: I feel like the kings biggest issue right now is carrying the puck into the zone, and that generally starts with Doughty. If there's a flaw in Doughty's game right now, it's his puck carrying ability, particularly on the PP. He's not fast, and he lacks dynamism. He gets the puck. He moves forward. He telegraphs his drop pass. Sometimes he doesnt even do that well, casually flinging it back to where he thinks the skater behind him is. Im also not a huge fan of him at the point, because i feel like he lacks elite passing and quick decision making up there. He's not bad. His shot is also probably better from there than any of our other defensemen. But i'm starting to feel like maybe clarke, or even spence is the better option there. And this gets me back to the defense as a whole. As a group, great. Individually, they lack that guy that has elite offensive skill. Doughty is a bit older, and while still a top pairing guy, he excels more defensively i think. Spence is not a PP1 guy, although i do think he's the better option to carry the puck up ice and lead that rush. Clarke is the guy you want there, but i understand why he's not there yet. So, ultimately, the combination of guys on D is one of the whole being better than it's parts i think.

• PK: I dont know what else you say here. They've been phenomenal. This could go a long ways towards being successful in the playoffs, and down the stretch here.

• Closing Thoughts/Depth: Im still surprised at Vancouver's success, but certainly feel vindicated with my thinking about anaheim and Edmonton. Both teams are where i expected them to be. I also did not see coach getting fired this season, at least not until pretty late in the losing streak, and ultimately that move has left a sour taste in my mouth. Im one of the few who liked McClellan, and while i realize he wasn't perfect, i thought he was doing a pretty good job. But i also understand why he was canned, even if im disappointed. I think part of that disappointment stems from the apparent fact that PLD seems to have been dragging ass because he needs a babysitter to play well, but if Hiller can right the ship and the kings can be successful with him at the helm, then you do what you have to do. The Kings need PL playing well to give them the depth to be successful. I dont think they can go deep without him stepping up like weve seen of late. And kudos to Turcotte as well for doing an admirable job in Lizottes absence. Im not sure turc is the guy i want going into the playoffs, at least not at 4C, but i do think he's shown he can perform there, and im excited to see him healthy and progressing.

I still think the Kings might battle for that 3rd spot at season's end, but i realize their recent skid has dug them a hole that's going to be tough to climb out of. With that said, if they return to playing how i think they can play, coupled with the potential for vegas to get tired down the stretch, i think there's real possibility they slide into 3rd over vegas.
 
Helvetica said:
Bumping this to include my thoughts at mid season, mostly for my own benefit because i like to see how things evolve, both for the team and my opinions, over the course of the season.

• Goaltending: I've been chatting with a few posters here over the course of the season, and i think ive finally solidified my thoughts on the Kings goalie situation. The Kings have soundly identified NHL average goaltending, maybe even slightly below average. I think guys like Cam, Rittich, and Copper are all guys that play calm, positionally sound, goaltending (generally speaking). None of them look like guys that are going to go out there and really steal games with any consistency. Rittich has done pretty well over his stretch lately. Cam started the season pretty hot. Copper never looked all that great to me this season. But i think ultimately, what sets these guys apart from a top flight goalie is that they need the Kings to play well in front of them to be successful. They are pretty unlikely to bail out the team when the team is playing bad defense. It can happen, but i think any NHL goalie has the ability to steal a game from time to time. The great goalies just do it more often and more consistently. The Kings don't have that, and it can be a problem, although i wouldn't really pin any of the Kings woes on our goaltending per se. I definitely see the need now for a top flight goalie if the Kings are likely to go deep in the playoffs. It's possible that one of their current goalies goes on a tear, but more likely is that the players in front of them are going to have to step up their game in order for the Kings to be successful in the playoffs.

• PLD: It feels like he's starting to come around here these past few games. I said at the beginning of the season that playing on 3rd line and PP2, i dont expect his production to be high, but i do expect him to have an impact on the game. And he's finally doing that. It's unfortunate the team had to fire coach to get this guy to move his feet, but here we are. If he can mostly play like we're seeing him play currently, i think that goes along ways towards righting the ship.

• Byfield: Yeeeessssss. Man is he playing well. The points are coming. His play has been consistently great. He's been the best player out there on some nights. I expected more points for him this season (than last), but i was still concerned about his goal scoring to start the season. He's been far better on his shot than i expected, with a stellar S% of ~17%. But more importantly, he's shooting more, which is what it takes to score in this league. Last season in 53 games, he shot the puck 74 times. This season, in 49 games, he's got 100 shots. He's on a 65 pt pace for the season, and if Kempe's S%/Goals wasn't down a bit, he'd probably hit 70 pts on the season. I have literally zero to complain about, and everything to be excited for with this guy. He's even looked good at center in those couple of games he's played at spot duty.

• Defense: I dont think my feelings here have changed too much. Solid core. I think this is a group that can carry us deep. With that said, it's not elite, in that we still lack an elite puck mover. More on that below.

• Powerplay: I feel like the kings biggest issue right now is carrying the puck into the zone, and that generally starts with Doughty. If there's a flaw in Doughty's game right now, it's his puck carrying ability, particularly on the PP. He's not fast, and he lacks dynamism. He gets the puck. He moves forward. He telegraphs his drop pass. Sometimes he doesnt even do that well, casually flinging it back to where he thinks the skater behind him is. Im also not a huge fan of him at the point, because i feel like he lacks elite passing and quick decision making up there. He's not bad. His shot is also probably better from there than any of our other defensemen. But i'm starting to feel like maybe clarke, or even spence is the better option there. And this gets me back to the defense as a whole. As a group, great. Individually, they lack that guy that has elite offensive skill. Doughty is a bit older, and while still a top pairing guy, he excels more defensively i think. Spence is not a PP1 guy, although i do think he's the better option to carry the puck up ice and lead that rush. Clarke is the guy you want there, but i understand why he's not there yet. So, ultimately, the combination of guys on D is one of the whole being better than it's parts i think.

• PK: I dont know what else you say here. They've been phenomenal. This could go a long ways towards being successful in the playoffs, and down the stretch here.

• Closing Thoughts/Depth: Im still surprised at Vancouver's success, but certainly feel vindicated with my thinking about anaheim and Edmonton. Both teams are where i expected them to be. I also did not see coach getting fired this season, at least not until pretty late in the losing streak, and ultimately that move has left a sour taste in my mouth. Im one of the few who liked McClellan, and while i realize he wasn't perfect, i thought he was doing a pretty good job. But i also understand why he was canned, even if im disappointed. I think part of that disappointment stems from the apparent fact that PLD seems to have been dragging ass because he needs a babysitter to play well, but if Hiller can right the ship and the kings can be successful with him at the helm, then you do what you have to do. The Kings need PL playing well to give them the depth to be successful. I dont think they can go deep without him stepping up like weve seen of late. And kudos to Turcotte as well for doing an admirable job in Lizottes absence. Im not sure turc is the guy i want going into the playoffs, at least not at 4C, but i do think he's shown he can perform there, and im excited to see him healthy and progressing.

I still think the Kings might battle for that 3rd spot at season's end, but i realize their recent skid has dug them a hole that's going to be tough to climb out of. With that said, if they return to playing how i think they can play, coupled with the potential for vegas to get tired down the stretch, i think there's real possibility they slide into 3rd over vegas.
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There's a lot of good stuff here & I agree with most, if not all of it. With our goaltending, if we were going to go Dollar Store, I wished we used them a little more evenly instead of riding Talbot until he's done & now doing the same with Rittich. Part of it was Copley didn't have it at the start but then maybe we should've gone with Talbot & Rittich & leave sentiment out of it.

I also agree about McClellan. I liked him & didn't want him fired but it was inevitable. Which leads to PLD. I don't know if he's getting better coaching from Hiller. Or if he realized "oh crap, I got a coach fired. I need to be better." But he's been much better at using his size to make plays & to draw penalties. We invested a lot in him, not just money. We need him to play well & if he's not it's like a giant black hole.

On defense I'd lie there to be a rotation of Clarke, Spence, & Englund, with some days having both Clarke & Spence in the lineup. What would help is breaking up the top 2 pairs, which we saw the last game.

Finally, Byfield is becoming a star. I think he's already been the most consistent player this season but he could end up being the best. I don't know if he should stay with Kopi on the top line or center his own line, or something else. But he should soon be playing in all situations, PP, PK, OT. And he should be on the ice in the last 2 minutes whether a goal up or down. I'm really happy for him & feel a little bit vindicated after so many people thought he was a bust.
 
Dr. Tran said:
There's a lot of good stuff here & I agree with most, if not all of it. With our goaltending, if we were going to go Dollar Store, I wished we used them a little more evenly instead of riding Talbot until he's done & now doing the same with Rittich. Part of it was Copley didn't have it at the start but then maybe we should've gone with Talbot & Rittich & leave sentiment out of it.

I also agree about McClellan. I liked him & didn't want him fired but it was inevitable. Which leads to PLD. I don't know if he's getting better coaching from Hiller. Or if he realized "oh crap, I got a coach fired. I need to be better." But he's been much better at using his size to make plays & to draw penalties. We invested a lot in him, not just money. We need him to play well & if he's not it's like a giant black hole.

On defense I'd lie there to be a rotation of Clarke, Spence, & Englund, with some days having both Clarke & Spence in the lineup. What would help is breaking up the top 2 pairs, which we saw the last game.

Finally, Byfield is becoming a star. I think he's already been the most consistent player this season but he could end up being the best. I don't know if he should stay with Kopi on the top line or center his own line, or something else. But he should soon be playing in all situations, PP, PK, OT. And he should be on the ice in the last 2 minutes whether a goal up or down. I'm really happy for him & feel a little bit vindicated after so many people thought he was a bust.
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Good callouts. I agree with the Copely comment. I think it came down to Blake not wanting to risk losing him (if placed on waivers) and lack of payroll to bring up Rittich without sending Copely down.

In regards to PLD, I think some of it is him getting a wake up call but much of it is due to Hiller balancing the top 3 lines and giving PLD a solid winger (either Kempe or Byfield). His commitment to team play has definitely increased as well, as has his PP opportunities.

I also agree when it comes to Byfield. He has been our past forward over the last several games and has shown he is productive no matter who is put on a line with.

I also want to call out Turcotte. He has been getting very few minutes (3 minutes a couple games ago and 5 today) but has shown a lot with the minutes he has been given. Given Turcotte a decent winger and he will do big things (provided he is able to stay healthy).
 
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