Attn: Rob Blake

[jammer06]

Guess I'm remembering wrong because I definitely remember that it was a debate between the two players and it was - one is ready, one isn't, but could be very special. Again, I would've chosen the latter and got why they did. I hope Byfield turns out, but as others have said, I'm not seeing a lot - I'm seeing - almost doing something on the way to something great. Again, the consensus number one pick is RIGHT NOW a bust and that could go either way also. I'm simply saying the Sens drafted two players in the top five and we'd take either right now. Is that not correct? Maybe it's because I'm in the Ottawa bubble - but they project that LHD as a future captain 1-2 Dman.

And look - AGAIN, you can't tell with prospects, so maybe it's unfair for me to point fingers at scouts, I guess the thing that is surprising me is that so many of Kings fans are claiming that everything is great with QB and on track when it clearly isn't. It still might be fine, it still might be great, but if this is exactly where you expected him now, then I am truly shocked.

As for your points 1-3, totally agree on all.

It may be that being in the Ottawa bubble you had two things talking Stutzle up more than LA or national markets

1) They weren't getting Byfield so the next best thing would be an angle as to why the third ranked choice was actually better than the second.
2) The ready now angle, it's way more important to being able to sell tickets. Lets not gloss over the fact that the Sens needed that boost too.

If I wasn't in the midwest I'd say the media talk around Byfield and LA was a bit of narrative for the local market too. The national outlets I follow, and Canadian ones, all were on the same train though. Byfield was the pick, but with the disclaimer that he wasn't NHL ready. Then almost by reflex they would add that Stutzle would be closer to NHL ready. Also the draft at that point had been 4 years removed from a player who was for sure going to be a star a number 1, and then actually was (Matthews in 2016). The successive number ones after that did not hit the ground running and it was getting harder for the media to make the excitement up to those levels again.

All that said I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned about Byfield hitting the top of his projection. I'm firmly on the train that he's definitely missed the top, and I'm waiting to see what's reasonable. If he morphed Tage like I'd be effin thrilled, but I'll need to see it happen. Only the patience of watching Gabe really has me less concerned about that part of the process. I've given up on the ideas of windows to take advantage of Kopi/Doughty/Quick, at this point this is Danault and Fiala's team and we'll have to see how far they can go with help from Kopi and Doughty. If they do have success I don't think anyone will care but the fans who was driving the bus, and at that only a small segment.

 

[DryKing]

We don't know what the Kings staff actually think regardless of what they say in public

Fair point

Guess I'm remembering wrong because I definitely remember that it was a debate between the two players and it was - one is ready, one isn't, but could be very special.

Yeah, according to the Kings there were a few players in contention, and between Byfield and Stutzle, Stutzle stood out initially. There were also rumors that the Rangers might draft Byfield over Lafreniere (mainly because they needed a center) and others/scouts who estimated Byfield's ceiling was higher than Lafreniere's. It's always been with Byfield, though, that he comes in as a project and is less likely to reach his ceiling as a result.

https://mayorsmanor.com/2020/10/anatomy-of-a-draft-pick-how-the-kings-decided-on-byfield/

 

[AngelEyes]

I'm in my sixth decade of watching hockey, and what I'm seeing from Byfield since he's been recalled has me optimistic. His speed and tenacity is very promising. Right now, his size is sometimes getting in the way of smoothly dominating play, but once he's matured into that size, I believe he will be a [URL=https://letsgokings.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=1]#1 C[/URL] force in the league.

On the other side of the coin, that (suppossed) #1 line has me puzzled.

 

[Helvetica]

one of the big considerations for me, with respect to Byfield, is that not only was he widely considered not NHL ready, but there have been a ton of hurdles during that early development. So, i rate his development as heavily set back given the issues with covid, the broken ankle, and some of the illnesses this season. It's simply too early to make any real decision at this point. I've seen a few flashes of high end skill. I've seen the high end tool kit. But i think he's got quite a bit more development to do before im even going to bother worrying about that pick. He's only played a quarter of this season between the Kings and Reign. Last season he only played about half the season. He is significantly behind in his development because he's had significant set backs. None of the setbacks could really have been predicted. And for a guy that needs a ton of development, it matters.

And sure, having Stutzle, right now, would almost certainly be a better position for the Kings. But with respect to how things will look in another couple years, i think im still happy with the pick. That could change. But im definitely not going to spend my time worrying about it in the short term.

 

[DarkLeftHand]

And in other news, it appears that Turcotte is hurt again, unless he is just dealing with illness. He’s missed the last two games for the Reign..

 

[Bollocks]

Always take the best player available, and just trade away the guy you previously drafted who isn’t as good as his new replacement.

RB has done an amazing job at making sneaky under the radar type FA signings(Danault), astute trades(Arvy/Moore/Durzi), or combinations thereof(Fiala). I am hoping he continues to build a solid overall team by moving some of our RHD overflow, because it’s this type of management that has made the team so competitive again so quickly quickly. Especially since our draft picks from the rebuild have essentially been a non-factor, across the board.

Yes. And there was no clear-cut BPA. One was closer to being NHL ready, the other had higher ceiling, "proper" character, work ethic...

Rob chose the one with higher ceiling who was also fitting the mold of potential "dominant franchise cornerstone two-way center" that could replace Kopitar once he retires (timeline fit almost perfectly).

That kind of players usually cost way more to acquire in a trade or via UFA. OTOH, productive top 6 wingers are moved fairly often. One was just this season acquired by the Kings via sign&trade and extended on a reasonable contract. Look at Gaudreau, Tkachuk...no way those two guys would cost sub-10 million if they were franchise centers with 100+ point production. And in general a significantly bigger portion of top centers of this league were drafted in and around top 5 compared to top wingers in the NHL.

So, yes, always choose BPA, but whenever there are no BPA, other factors come into play. You can't ignore the fact that certain team needs are very difficult to meet outside draft and this can and should affect the team's decision when there is no clear-cut BPA.

The Avalanche for example desperately needed high-end D prospect in 2017 and chose Makar, who ranked as low as mid-1st-round in some rankings. I imagine they do not regret choosing based on their need...

He’s built to be one yes - but if he never produces? He goes to the wing before he goes away. Want to believe like everyone else but as of now we should’ve taken either of the sens top five picks.

This is not a hockey debate, though.

It's seeing how some hockey players perform after 4 years and saying "At this point in time, that guy that performs better than our guy, so that guy should've been chosen". I mean, what is this? Pre-school hockey podcast??

I've never understood these debates when it comes to drafting. It's ALL hindsight unless the GM uses top 10 picks to gamble significantly and fails more than once - only THEN you can point finger at him/his scouting team and say "wtf people"? Not to mention there are other, very important factors when judging the prospects so soon in their career - and the Kings had very bad luck when it comes to injuries.

I'd be much more worried if Blake didn't manage to retool this team's prospect depth. If he had chosen Stutzle and the rest of his lower picks were total whiffs, we'd be much, MUCH worse off...but this way, Rob can easily trade surplus to fill the needs.


EDIT: I think some of the LGKers need a bit of a harsh reality check. Remember Dean? Remember his very worrying period of drafting "character&grit over skill"? Remember the Kings' having very little to no skill in the pipeline?
https://nhlrumors.com/2016-17-top-10-los-angeles-kings-prospects/2016/10/31/

At the point of Dean's departure, it was Kempe and NOTHING ELSE.

 

[santiclaws]

EDIT: I think some of the LGKers need a bit of a harsh reality check. Remember Dean? Remember his very worrying period of drafting "character&grit over skill"? Remember the Kings' having very little to no skill in the pipeline?
https://nhlrumors.com/2016-17-top-10-los-angeles-kings-prospects/2016/10/31/

At the point of Dean's departure, it was Kempe and NOTHING ELSE.

Funny to read that scouting report. "Kempe plays a physical style that translates well to the NHL game, but his offensive upside is limited, which could project to a bottom six role rather than first line offensive star." Mersch was "the Kings best offensive prospect" and Amadio "is a naturally gifted offensive player"

 

[Bollocks]

Funny to read that scouting report. "Kempe plays a physical style that translates well to the NHL game, but his offensive upside is limited, which could project to a bottom six role rather than first line offensive star." Mersch was "the Kings best offensive prospect" and Amadio "is a naturally gifted offensive player"

Yes. I knew things were bad at that point, but I forgot just HOW bad. Simply atrocious. Yeah, even the best prospect that actually made the NHL defied the scouting reports and considerly overperformed experts' ratings at that point.

Just wow.

 

[VCRW]

Funny to read that scouting report. "Kempe plays a physical style that translates well to the NHL game, but his offensive upside is limited, which could project to a bottom six role rather than first line offensive star." Mersch was "the Kings best offensive prospect" and Amadio "is a naturally gifted offensive player"

It took Kempe’s mind/will quite a while to catch up with his obvious physical abilities. He always had the tools, but he just didn’t have the confidence nor the discipline to believe in them or use them all together all the time. But the light finally came on and has stayed on since about this time in 2021. And Juice is becoming an institution now. It’s a good story. Love what he brings to the ice.

 

[Illegal_Stick]

Yes. And there was no clear-cut BPA. One was closer to being NHL ready, the other had higher ceiling, "proper" character, work ethic...

Rob chose the one with higher ceiling who was also fitting the mold of potential "dominant franchise cornerstone two-way center" that could replace Kopitar once he retires (timeline fit almost perfectly).

That kind of players usually cost way more to acquire in a trade or via UFA. OTOH, productive top 6 wingers are moved fairly often. One was just this season acquired by the Kings via sign&trade and extended on a reasonable contract. Look at Gaudreau, Tkachuk...no way those two guys would cost sub-10 million if they were franchise centers with 100+ point production. And in general a significantly bigger portion of top centers of this league were drafted in and around top 5 compared to top wingers in the NHL.

So, yes, always choose BPA, but whenever there are no BPA, other factors come into play. You can't ignore the fact that certain team needs are very difficult to meet outside draft and this can and should affect the team's decision when there is no clear-cut BPA.

The Avalanche for example desperately needed high-end D prospect in 2017 and chose Makar, who ranked as low as mid-1st-round in some rankings. I imagine they do not regret choosing based on their need...



This is not a hockey debate, though.

It's seeing how some hockey players perform after 4 years and saying "At this point in time, that guy that performs better than our guy, so that guy should've been chosen". I mean, what is this? Pre-school hockey podcast??

I've never understood these debates when it comes to drafting. It's ALL hindsight unless the GM uses top 10 picks to gamble significantly and fails more than once - only THEN you can point finger at him/his scouting team and say "wtf people"? Not to mention there are other, very important factors when judging the prospects so soon in their career - and the Kings had very bad luck when it comes to injuries.

I'd be much more worried if Blake didn't manage to retool this team's prospect depth. If he had chosen Stutzle and the rest of his lower picks were total whiffs, we'd be much, MUCH worse off...but this way, Rob can easily trade surplus to fill the needs.


EDIT: I think some of the LGKers need a bit of a harsh reality check. Remember Dean? Remember his very worrying period of drafting "character&grit over skill"? Remember the Kings' having very little to no skill in the pipeline?
https://nhlrumors.com/2016-17-top-10-los-angeles-kings-prospects/2016/10/31/

At the point of Dean's departure, it was Kempe and NOTHING ELSE.

As for BPA - fair, I guess I'm thinking of it as BPA at the time, but you are actually correct, they considered QB BPA over a long period of time and of course, that's more important.

And yes, of course, it's all hindsight, I've tried to say in all my comments, I would've taken QB, just starting to look and wonder as he is taking longer than expected (but injuries etc were a big factor) and Stutzle is better than I thought he would be. I think hindsight I'd still draft QB, but I'm just starting to worry.

 

[jammer06]

After Wednesday the kings will have 1 game in 8 days. I had circled this part of the calendar as a likely time for a "Hockey trade" if Blake wanted to get a guy acclimated without putting him through the deadline wringer. We'll know soon enough if he eyeballs it that way.

 

[Bollocks]

As for BPA - fair, I guess I'm thinking of it as BPA at the time, but you are actually correct, they considered QB BPA over a long period of time and of course, that's more important.

And yes, of course, it's all hindsight, I've tried to say in all my comments, I would've taken QB, just starting to look and wonder as he is taking longer than expected (but injuries etc were a big factor) and Stutzle is better than I thought he would be. I think hindsight I'd still draft QB, but I'm just starting to worry.

I wasn't solely replying to you, sorry - just the general sentiment that appeared in this thread once the Kings started playing well and people couldn't bash TMac and Blake (and Luc lol) for that anymore.

Sure, Dean's "rebuild to Cup" journey lasted only 5 years, but that was definitely an outlier among NHL GMs and mostly due to certain players he inherited that became the core, the DD lottery win and some great, timely trades. His draft record was pretty bad and was the reason this team wasn't a "dynasty" but a disaster at the point he left.

He spoiled the Kings fans who waited, what, 45 years for a Cup and then got 2 in the span of 2 years after a (relatively) short rebuild. The reality is though that rebuilds usually take longer unless great luck is involved - and even then - look at the friggin' Oilers, people! And what is one way you make sure rebuilds take longer than necessary? You replace successful staff that performs ahead of curve because you want instant success. If the team is on the young and on the upward trajectory, that's one way to disrupt everything.

Some posters see only the bad trees among a jungle of good that is Rob's tenure. Who cares that he hired a tank Admiral WD? Who cares he signed Kovalchuk? And to add insult to hockey knowledge injury, they bring up his draft history which is MILES better than Dean's. I really don't get people. Instead of being very happy, they post s*** on here about the management. Oh well, nothing new, right?

 

[VCRW]

After Wednesday the kings will have 1 game in 8 days. I had circled this part of the calendar as a likely time for a "Hockey trade" if Blake wanted to get a guy acclimated without putting him through the deadline wringer. We'll know soon enough if he eyeballs it that way.

I hope your intuition is correct. I would hate to see Blake wait until the deadline and then be forced to overpay.

 

[aragorn]

Attn: Rob Blake - Well done thus far. Slow but steady.

 

[JETS GARAGE]

After Wednesday the kings will have 1 game in 8 days. I had circled this part of the calendar as a likely time for a "Hockey trade" if Blake wanted to get a guy acclimated without putting him through the deadline wringer. We'll know soon enough if he eyeballs it that way.

I wouldn't be too surprised or upset if the Kings rolled through the rest of the season with the current roster and rotation of players from AHL Ontario. But, if a good defenseman could be folded into the mix in a trade for some magic beans I would be for it.

 

[DyslexicTom]

I don't know if it is fair to say that Lombardi's draft record is worse than Blake's when A) the head of scouting has been the same, I believe, and B) the relative difference in draft positions over the years.

Lombardi has drafted more Kings Cup winners than Blake, if there is a somewhat meaningless metric to go by: Jonathan Bernier & Trevor Lewis (2006), Alec Martinez (2007), Drew Doughty (2008), Kyle Clifford & Jordan Nolan (2009), Tyler Toffoli (2010), and Tanner Pearson (2012).

And these players led directly to the acquisition of Cup winners: Wayne Simmonds (2007) & Brayden Schenn (2009).

Also haven't even mentioned players who went on to win Cups with other organizations. A good chunk of these players are still in the league as good players.

He did flail after 2014 trying to chase more Cups and made roster choices that were questionable at the time, but hindsight being 20/20 at all that. Re-signing Gaborik and letting Justin Williams go were mistakes, and I firmly believe that extending Kopitar rather than getting good value for him via trade was also a bad idea. Understandable that even Lombardi fell victim to falling in love with players, though.

 

[Clif]

I don't know if it is fair to say that Lombardi's draft record is worse than Blake's when A) the head of scouting has been the same, I believe, and B) the relative difference in draft positions over the years.

Lombardi has drafted more Kings Cup winners than Blake, if there is a somewhat meaningless metric to go by: Jonathan Bernier & Trevor Lewis (2006), Alec Martinez (2007), Drew Doughty (2008), Kyle Clifford & Jordan Nolan (2009), Tyler Toffoli (2010), and Tanner Pearson (2012).

And these players led directly to the acquisition of Cup winners: Wayne Simmonds (2007) & Brayden Schenn (2009).

Also haven't even mentioned players who went on to win Cups with other organizations. A good chunk of these players are still in the league as good players.

He did flail after 2014 trying to chase more Cups and made roster choices that were questionable at the time, but hindsight being 20/20 at all that. Re-signing Gaborik and letting Justin Williams go were mistakes, and I firmly believe that extending Kopitar rather than getting good value for him via trade was also a bad idea. Understandable that even Lombardi fell victim to falling in love with players, though.

If this team wins a cup within the next 4 years you can add Kempe to the list of Dean’s Cup winners.

Drafts take a long time to evaluate. Go back years. Only player who’s turned out to be an impact player early in the last long while is Kaliyev. You could almost say Mikey, but with his college and AHL games I’d call him a best case scenario vs. early. Everyone else is slow cooking and a handful are on schedule at best.

Even the prospects Blake traded for in Moore and Durzi took some time to become impact players counting their time in the Marlies. Grundstrom and Madden (if he ever gets there) could be okay throw-ins in a trade, maaaaybe.

 

[Pevsfreedom]

Random thoughts: The only problem I see right now is Byfield, and IDK about what goaltenders we have in the pipeline. Byfield, to me, looks like he doesn't want to be in the NHL, and prefers picking on scrubs in the AHL, but isn't ready mentally to play at the top. IDK how much time it's gonna take him, but I've seen him skate in circles just to get the puck and dish it away as soon as he can, often to an opponent, then race to the bench. Any of the 4th line grinders are showing more heart and desire right now than him. And he gets shaken every time the puck comes near him. Another injury is unfortunately imminent I think. He doesn't protect himself and doesn't know what to do with the puck or where to stand. A major liability and should be traded of course. I hope he improves. I thought Kempe sucked and he showed me very wrong last year and this year.

Fiala is the best player, that I can remember, that the Kings have "bought" since I started watching in like 98 or 99 (started watching in 3rd grade so I vaguely remember LAPD line). Pure skill and a joy to watch. Roy and Edler have improved immensely, the former a bit more than the latter. Durzi is producing. It's weird being an offensive threat type of team. So far so good. The shutting down of McDavid was a joy to watch. They got exposed hard for what they are, a one line 2 man team. Doughty on the ice in the playoffs last year? Forget about it, Kings win.

 

[DyslexicTom]

Jury's still out, but in terms of pure talent and potential, Blake's team has drafted better; the Kings has had a highly touted prospect pool for a reason.

However, many teams in the past have had a lot of talent but lacked the luck and timeliness in order to win championships.

Just depends if you want to be results-focused or process-focused. I just think that Blake has had a leg up in the latter because the Kings have played so badly since 2014 and have had higher draft positions as a result. I would say Lombardi did more with less quality picks.

 

[DryKing]

Random thoughts: The only problem I see right now is Byfield, and IDK about what goaltenders we have in the pipeline. Byfield, to me, looks like he doesn't want to be in the NHL, and prefers picking on scrubs in the AHL, but isn't ready mentally to play at the top.

Hopefully tonight is the start of many good things to come as it may have been his best game yet in the NHL. I agree with you, though, that his challenges have been more in terms of mental approach / mentality / mental maturity than skill level. He is very passionate though, in my opinion, just very introvert.