Elliotte Friedman: Chychrun May Be Available

[Rogie-Vachon]

Beautiful feed by Fagemo and Villardi with a nice pull and drag

https://streamable.com/b0un9i

#79 will have fun in the film session....

 

[jt]

Getting hung up on his shooting%/less than ideal shot angles i think misses the forrest for the trees.

This is spot on. One of (if not THE) main thing he brings in value is that he might shoot any time any place. That makes the goalie wonder what to do. It also creates rebounds, which (according to some of the new analytics) might be the primary predictor of goals against for goalies. So shooting in and of itself has big value. And a low shooting % isn't bad.

I'm ecstatic with Arvidsson.

 

[DryKing]

I think the grades take more into account than just, "how well is this guy playing". He's making 4.3mil, but contributing like a 7.6mil player. And we got him, as a top six forward, for a 2nd and 3rd round pic? That's fantastic value. So i think the "A" grade reflects more about his overall value, and the move to get him, than it does simply ranking him as a player. I do not disagree with the A rating at all. You can live with his volume shooting because he's bringing offensive production, good possession, and solid D. Not a lot of guys have that combination.

Getting hung up on his shooting%/less than ideal shot angles i think misses the forrest for the trees.

I was looking at the full season, not "how well is this guy playing". Happy to hear your opposing view, and i hope you provide details, as he is not contributing like a 7.6 mil player. Case in point - here are *real* salaries of players he is not even close to touching:

DeBrincat, Alex $6.4M
Marchessault, Jonathan $5M
Scheifele, Mark $6.125M
Dubois, Pierre-Luc $5M
Boeser, Brock $5.875M
Guentzel, Jake $6M
Bennett, Sam $4.425M
Reinhart, Sam $6.5M
Huberdeau, Jonathan $5.9M
Gaudreau, Johnny $6.75M
Tkachuk, Matthew $7M
Bergeron, Patrice $6.875M
Pastrnak, David $6.67M
Marchand, Brad $6.125M
Zibanejad, Mika $5.35M
Kreider, Chris $6.5M
Larkin, Dylan $6.1M
Bertuzzi, Tyler $4.75M


You say poor shot selection is "missing the Forrest for the trees" but that is hardly the case. There is a reason why Arvidsson would not be anything more than a 3rd liner on a playoff contender, and that starts with poor shot selection. Poor shots break the flow of the offense, lead to quick possession changes, lead to missed scoring opportunities which become less and less frequent against top teams, and build opposing goalie confidence. I get you are a fan of his game, but I'd like to see you make a post a list of his strengths and weaknesses and then tell me if he still rates as an "A".

 

[DryKing]

This is spot on. One of (if not THE) main thing he brings in value is that he might shoot any time any place. That makes the goalie wonder what to do. It also creates rebounds, which (according to some of the new analytics) might be the primary predictor of goals against for goalies. So shooting in and of itself has big value. And a low shooting % isn't bad.

I'm ecstatic with Arvidsson.

100% incorrect. Shots need to be meaningful and lead to goals - each shot Arvidsson takes takes an opportunity away from another player. Would you really say you'd be ok with him shooting this volume, while maintaining a mediocre 7% shooting percentage, at the expense of a player like Ovechkin getting a shot on goal? We need our scorers getting the shots. Right now that would be a player like Kempe.

Arvidsson is fine for the team now that is developing shooters, but once they are developed what role will Arvidsson hold? Likely a 3rd line forward.

 

[jt]

100% incorrect. Shots need to be meaningful and lead to goals - each shot Arvidsson takes takes an opportunity away from another player. Would you really say you'd be ok with him shooting this volume, while maintaining a mediocre 7% shooting percentage, at the expense of a player like Ovechkin getting a shot on goal? We need our scorers getting the shots. Right now that would be a player like Kempe.

Arvidsson is fine for the team now that is developing shooters, but once they are developed what role will Arvidsson hold? Likely a 3rd line forward.

One of the things that's driven me absolutely crazy for every one of my 30 years playing goalie is watching my teammates (and happily opponents) pass up shots for "a better shot" which is usually either passing to a teammate who ends up with a crappy shot or waiting so long they skate themselves out of a mediocre shot for a chance at a better one that never happens is huge. The number of times mediocre shots turn into good scoring chances, according to the new goalie analytics, is comparatively huge.

I can't even begin to describe how much I would rather they take a shot from a mediocre scoring position than wait for the great chance. I've gotten mad at teammates maybe 20 times in my career and 18 of them have probably been about that.

 

[DryKing]

One of the things that's driven me absolutely crazy for every one of my 30 years playing goalie is watching my teammates (and happily opponents) pass up shots for "a better shot" which is usually either passing to a teammate who ends up with a crappy shot or waiting so long they skate themselves out of a mediocre shot for a chance at a better one that never happens is huge. The number of times mediocre shots turn into good scoring chances, according to the new goalie analytics, is comparatively huge.

I can't even begin to describe how much I would rather they take a shot from a mediocre scoring position than wait for the great chance. I've gotten mad at teammates maybe 20 times in my career and 18 of them have probably been about that.

Ha yeah it's like the Kings passing the puck around for 1:30 on the PP - I'm sure most of us are screaming "shoot!" It's even more devastating though when finally someone shoots and it's straight into the glove or even worse, misses the net completely and goes out bounds or leads to a fast break in the other direction.

You totally have a valid point, the Kings problem has been passing too much and shooting too little. That helps to cover up Arvidsson's sizeable shortcoming, but the Kings are quickly evolving and he will need to too in order to keep a place on the roster. Teams will have a very hard time being a contender when their forward with the top number of shots on the team is shooting 7%. If you look across the league, the majority of forward with the most shots on their team have a shooting % of anywhere from 12-20%.

Also sorry if my previous post came off a bit rude, I didn't mean it that way.

 

[jt]

Ha yeah it's like the Kings passing the puck around for 1:30 on the PP - I'm sure most of us are screaming "shoot!" It's even more devastating though when finally someone shoots and it's straight into the glove or even worse, misses the net completely and goes out bounds or leads to a fast break in the other direction.[/qoute]


Yup! And it's no unique to the Kings. All teams struggle with that...at every level...even the drunk beer leagues.

You totally have a valid point, the Kings problem has been passing too much and shooting too little. That helps to cover up Arvidsson's sizeable shortcoming, but the Kings are quickly evolving and he will need to too in order to keep a place on the roster. Teams will have a very hard time being a contender when their forward with the top number of shots on the team is shooting 7%. If you look across the league, the majority of forward with the most shots on their team have a shooting % of anywhere from 12-20%.

Agreed. And maybe he, Danault, and Iafallo eventually become 3rd liners (but in the cap era I doubt it).

Also sorry if my previous post came off a bit rude, I didn't mean it that way.

Thanks but meh...if you can't handle that WFT are you doing here?

 

[Clif]

Shooting percentage is a good segue to concerns I have with Chychrun now that I’ve looked closer at his stats. His shot percentage, like several other areas, are why I’ve really cooled on giving up Clarke for him. And if it’s true that Turcotte is the Kings’ centerpiece in their deal then Clarke’s not in it and I’m good with that.

Chyrchrun’s numbers:

Season
▲ GP G A PTS +/- PIM S% BLK HIT TK GV
16-17 68 7 13 20 -14 47 8.1 99 109 12 45
17-18 50 4 10 14 2 16 3.9 72 74 19 27
18-19 53 5 15 20 -12 28 4.3 77 74 20 38
19-20 63 12 14 26 4 38 8.1 95 75 27 52
20-21 56 18 23 41 -6 42 10.2 89 59 20 36
21-22 30 2 6 8 -31 30 2.2 39 35 10 22

His average ppg is .40. Not bad but best dmen on other teams have higher averages. Some patterns:

He’s missed his share of games, including this season.
His points are good but not great. I’ll get to last year’s totals in a moment.
PIMs are a higher than I’d like.
Including this year so far, three seasons shooting between 2-4.5 percent. That’s awful.
Hits and blocks are good. I like those columns.
More giveaways than takeaways every year. Not what we need at all if that were to continue for him.

As for his breakout season last year, not the time to have a career best with a small sample size of teams played. Impressive, but quality of opponents matter. His point spread:

25 of his 41 points came against the CA teams - legit bad teams.
10 against Vegas, Minn, and Col - very good teams.
6 against StL. They deserve their own category for their off year last season. True mediocrity.

One of the main arguments back when Eichel was on the block was, “you give up Byfield because Eichel is who you hope he becomes. Potential against proven.”

If you switched Clarke’s name with Chychrun’s and said this is how his first 6 seasons will look, would you be happy? Do you want Clarke to have that kind of a career or are you expecting more from the kid who’s currently having the best OHL season for a scoring defenseman since Dougie Hamilton?

I believe if Blake offered Clarke, Turcotte, and a 1st this deal is done today. If he doesn’t offer that then so be it. I’d prefer to see Bjornfot, Turcotte, a 1st, and one of Spence/Grans/or Durzi. The last column provides a scoring D to offset Toby. Durzi would hurt a lot this year but if that’s the price to keep Clarke then great. This deal may not be enough and AZ may only trade if they get a very high-grade prospect back. If it’s not enough, again so be it.

EDIT: stat formatting sucks - sorry. Link to save your eyes: https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/c/chychja01.html

 

[Helvetica]

he is not contributing like a 7.6 mil player.


You say poor shot selection is "missing the Forrest for the trees" but that is hardly the case. There is a reason why Arvidsson would not be anything more than a 3rd liner on a playoff contender, and that starts with poor shot selection. Poor shots break the flow of the offense, lead to quick possession changes, lead to missed scoring opportunities which become less and less frequent against top teams, and build opposing goalie confidence. I get you are a fan of his game, but I'd like to see you make a post a list of his strengths and weaknesses and then tell me if he still rates as an "A".

The link i posted listed his contributions as matching up with a 7mil contract, so that's the author of that link making the claim, and using stats to back it up. I think ultimately he's looking at GSVA. And again... if all you're focused on is shot selection, i think you're missing the big picture, because he's contributing in many other ways (again, look at the stats listed for an idea of where's he's contributing). I dont have stats on your list of players, but off the cuff id probably wager that some of the guys on your list are also contributing above their contract, or alternatively, are maybe contributing less in areas aside from scoring. I also think that poor shots are less important than you're making them out to be, especially for a team that is as strong on possession as the Kings. They can just as easily lead to rebound opportunities, scrambled defense, and recoveries for a team that does well at recovering pucks. And while it can lead to goalie confidence, it can also lead to offensive confidence for the Kings. Getting in and peppering a team with shots is a good thing, and we've all seen it first hand.

 

[jt]

Shooting percentage is a good segue to concerns I have with Chychrun now that I?ve looked closer at his stats. His shot percentage, like several other areas, are why I?ve really cooled on giving up Clarke for him. And if it?s true that Turcotte is the Kings? centerpiece in their deal then Clarke?s not in it and I?m good with that.

Chyrchrun?s numbers:

Season
▲ GP G A PTS +/- PIM S% BLK HIT TK GV
16-17 68 7 13 20 -14 47 8.1 99 109 12 45
17-18 50 4 10 14 2 16 3.9 72 74 19 27
18-19 53 5 15 20 -12 28 4.3 77 74 20 38
19-20 63 12 14 26 4 38 8.1 95 75 27 52
20-21 56 18 23 41 -6 42 10.2 89 59 20 36
21-22 30 2 6 8 -31 30 2.2 39 35 10 22

His average ppg is .40. Not bad but best dmen on other teams have higher averages. Some patterns:

He?s missed his share of games, including this season.
His points are good but not great. I?ll get to last year?s totals in a moment.
PIMs are a higher than I?d like.
Including this year so far, three seasons shooting between 2-4.5 percent. That?s awful.
Hits and blocks are good. I like those columns.
More giveaways than takeaways every year. Not what we need at all if that were to continue for him.

As for his breakout season last year, not the time to have a career best with a small sample size of teams played. Impressive, but quality of opponents matter. His point spread:

25 of his 41 points came against the CA teams - legit bad teams.
10 against Vegas, Minn, and Col - very good teams.
6 against StL. They deserve their own category for their off year last season. True mediocrity.

One of the main arguments back when Eichel was on the block was, ?you give up Byfield because Eichel is who you hope he becomes. Potential against proven.?

If you switched Clarke?s name with Chychrun?s and said this is how his first 6 seasons will look, would you be happy? Do you want Clarke to have that kind of a career or are you expecting more from the kid who?s currently having the best OHL season for a scoring defenseman since Dougie Hamilton?

I believe if Blake offered Clarke, Turcotte, and a 1st this deal is done today. If he doesn?t offer that then so be it. I?d prefer to see Bjornfot, Turcotte, a 1st, and one of Spence/Grans/or Durzi. The last column provides a scoring D to offset Toby. Durzi would hurt a lot this year but if that?s the price to keep Clarke then great. This deal may not be enough and AZ may only trade if they get a very high-grade prospect back. If it?s not enough, again so be it.

EDIT: stat formatting sucks - sorry. Link to save your eyes: https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/c/chychja01.html

It's interesting to analyze stats like this. They show he certainly has issues. The thing is that if he didn't he wouldn't be available...OR he'd cost what Karlsson did (and he had his own problems which IMO are partly why the Sharks haven't been great). I don't think you're saying this, but anyone who says no to trading the rumored package for Chychrun needs to have an alternative. They don't have a high end LD in the system, so if it's not Chychrun, then who and what to do? Nothing and just don't have a high end LD?

 

[jt]

They can just as easily lead to rebound opportunities, scrambled defense, and recoveries for a team that does well at recovering pucks. And while it can lead to goalie confidence, it can also lead to offensive confidence for the Kings. Getting in and peppering a team with shots is a good thing, and we've all seen it first hand.

And that's EXACTLY what we saw from Arvidsson today.

Shoot shoot shoot shoot shoot. From anywhere anytime. That leads to goals.

 

[Clif]

It's interesting to analyze stats like this. They show he certainly has issues. The thing is that if he didn't he wouldn't be available...OR he'd cost what Karlsson did (and he had his own problems which IMO are partly why the Sharks haven't been great). I don't think you're saying this, but anyone who says no to trading the rumored package for Chychrun needs to have an alternative. They don't have a high end LD in the system, so if it's not Chychrun, then who and what to do? Nothing and just don't have a high end LD?

Right. If Blake lowballed with Bjornfot, Kupari and a 1st and called it a day that’d be the equivalent of doing nothing. As uncommon as this opportunity is, there’s a limit to what can reasonably be given up. I’d hope Blake could cite Chychrun’s deficiencies to say Clarke’s too steep and that other teams don’t massively overpay also. But if one does, that’s how the chips fall.

It’s funny how the longer these things go on the more it makes you think. Several weeks ago you had me reluctantly willing to give up Bjornfot and Clarke. Since then Clarke has kept dominating the OHL and Chychrun’s been injured. Then I looked at stats I didn’t before.

 

[DryKing]

And that's EXACTLY what we saw from Arvidsson today.

Shoot shoot shoot shoot shoot. From anywhere anytime. That leads to goals.

One shot led to a goal which was due to the great play by Durzi, the other 8...? Nope. The second goal he had bounced off him, so I guess you can attribute both of his goals to good positioning (which he has in the offensive zone) but other than the direct goal, I didn't see his shots leading to anything.

Also keep in mind we are talking about bad shoots (low % or bad angle shots), not just general shots. He also appears to be prone to missing wide open nets (ala tonight with the shot on the empty net that was off the mark). He definitely has strong areas of his game which I called out in my previous post, but defending a guy for taking poor percentage shots is a bit baffling to me, especially when a teammates is in open position to receive a pass and make a much better shot attempt.

 

[DryKing]

Right. If Blake lowballed with Bjornfot, Kupari and a 1st and called it a day that’d be the equivalent of doing nothing. As uncommon as this opportunity is, there’s a limit to what can reasonably be given up. I’d hope Blake could cite Chychrun’s deficiencies to say Clarke’s too steep and that other teams don’t massively overpay also. But if one does, that’s how the chips fall.

It’s funny how the longer these things go on the more it makes you think. Several weeks ago you had me reluctantly willing to give up Bjornfot and Clarke. Since then Clarke has kept dominating the OHL and Chychrun’s been injured. Then I looked at stats I didn’t before.

Chychrun has been playing much better since returning from injury (much more responsible in the defensive zone), however what scares me is the lack of offense he has been able to generate. Given what AZ wants in exchange for him, I really hope Blake looks at other options.

I'd prefer to go after a player like Lindholm in free agency if the Ducks aren't able to extend him by the end of the season.

 

[jt]

One shot led to a goal which was due to the great play by Durzi, the other 8...? Nope. The second goal he had bounced off him, so I guess you can attribute both of his goals to good positioning (which he has in the offensive zone) but other than the direct goal, I didn't see his shots leading to anything.

Also keep in mind we are talking about bad shoots (low % or bad angle shots), not just general shots. He also appears to be prone to missing wide open nets (ala tonight with the shot on the empty net that was off the mark). He definitely has strong areas of his game which I called out in my previous post, but defending a guy for taking poor percentage shots is a bit baffling to me, especially when a teammates is in open position to receive a pass and make a much better shot attempt.

I think we're just on opposite sides philosophically. As a fan and a goalie I don't think there is any such thing as a "bad shot" as long as it isn't LIKELY to result in a turnover. Shots from anywhere anytime **** with the goalie and defenders. They don't know where the puck is after the shot and it causes scrambles and often results in a good scoring chance after that bad scoring chance. Like I said, nothing drives me more crazy watching games and watching my teammates as them NOT taking shots.

Chychrun has been playing much better since returning from injury (much more responsible in the defensive zone), however what scares me is the lack of offense he has been able to generate. Given what AZ wants in exchange for him, I really hope Blake looks at other options.

I'd prefer to go after a player like Lindholm in free agency if the Ducks aren't able to extend him by the end of the season.

Yeah, that scares my a little too. But AZ is SO awful it's understandable. When you say "other option" do you mean in trade? If so, who?

And it's lovely to say "go after player X" as a UFA but the odds of that player coming to the Kings is small. Name the last 3 big name free agents to sign in LA......Danault and 2 more...

 

[LAKingSteve]

I think we're just on opposite sides philosophically. As a fan and a goalie I don't think there is any such thing as a "bad shot" as long as it isn't LIKELY to result in a turnover. Shots from anywhere anytime **** with the goalie and defenders. They don't know where the puck is after the shot and it causes scrambles and often results in a good scoring chance after that bad scoring chance. Like I said, nothing drives me more crazy watching games and watching my teammates as them NOT taking shots.



Yeah, that scares my a little too. But AZ is SO awful it's understandable. When you say "other option" do you mean in trade? If so, who?

And it's lovely to say "go after player X" as a UFA but the odds of that player coming to the Kings is small. Name the last 3 big name free agents to sign in LA......Danault and 2 more...

Teams that are on an upswing, which the Kings arguably are, become more attractive to a UFA if you become this missing piece that gets them even closer to the cup.

 

[Kurisu]

And it's lovely to say "go after player X" as a UFA but the odds of that player coming to the Kings is small. Name the last 3 big name free agents to sign in LA......Danault and 2 more...

Kind of a tangent, but I thought for sure our two cups would buy us league wide legitimacy and make us a premier FA destination.

I've given up on that in the rebuild mode after our implosion, but I was shocked this didn't happen back then.

 

[jt]

Teams that are on an upswing, which the Kings arguably are, become more attractive to a UFA if you become this missing piece that gets them even closer to the cup.

Kind of a tangent, but I thought for sure our two cups would buy us league wide legitimacy and make us a premier FA destination.

I've given up on that in the rebuild mode after our implosion, but I was shocked this didn't happen back then.

Kurisu nailed. it. I was such an optimist for 2012-13 and 2014-15 that the Kings would be attractive for UFA and then...nothing. It was a little demoralizing but the fact is that LA wasn't attractive even after that 3 year run. Go figure but facts are facts.

 

[What party?]

Would also like to add to the Jeff Chychrun reality that Phoenix trading within their division is out of the realm of possibility. Right? Realistically? Unless they know they are moving to Quebec (Kauai? Qarth?) it seems SOOO risky.

But am totally down for typing about it until the option is gone. =)
[carry on.]

Cripes, edit. My bad forgot they were in the central....

 

[HTK]

You know who impressed me a ton this week? Ivan Provorov. That guy is a beast. He would be our #1 d-man immediately. I would trade a whole lot for that guy. He shut everything down that entire game. That?s the Russian we want.