Elliotte Friedman: Chychrun May Be Available

[jt]

You know who impressed me a ton this week? Ivan Provorov. That guy is a beast. He would be our #1 d-man immediately. I would trade a whole lot for that guy. He shut everything down that entire game. That’s the Russian we want.

Yeah but after a report that he was on the block, Philly has said he specifically isn't available. Sure, everyone is available but it's hard to imagine they'd trade him...but if they did, he'd be worth a ton.

 

[DryKing]

Yeah, that scares my a little too. But AZ is SO awful it's understandable. When you say "other option" do you mean in trade? If so, who?

I'm not a GM so I don't know who is available or what the cost might be, but I would consider the following depending on availability and cost: Lindholm, Ghost, Dunn, Martinez, Slavin, York, Broberg, Harley (the last 3 beind future investments). Alternately we could stick with what we have and wait for the right deal to come along or use FA.

Inevitably we need to trade some forwards to make room for what management projects to be the future roster. That said, I really don't see overpaying for Chychrun being the answer. If we really want to go for broke let's put together a package and take a shot at Dahlin - we likely have the assets to pull it off.

 

[hokiecat]

You know who impressed me a ton this week? Ivan Provorov. That guy is a beast. He would be our #1 d-man immediately. I would trade a whole lot for that guy. He shut everything down that entire game. That?s the Russian we want.

Provorov is really good but he's more of a 2 than a 1. He'd be a very good piece to get though. Downside to JC is the higher cap hit. The upside is Philly has York ready to slide into the top 4 on the left side plus Zamula in the pipeline. The Flyers desperately need prospects and Fletcher has made a slew of bad moves so maybe there is a deal to be made.

 

[jt]

I'm not a GM so I don't know who is available or what the cost might be, but I would consider the following depending on availability and cost: Lindholm, Ghost, Dunn, Martinez, Slavin, York, Broberg, Harley (the last 3 beind future investments).

Thanks for playing the game.

That's the kind of thing that bugs me sometimes about fans. Too many times they say "don't do this" without having any idea what they'd do instead. Or what they'd do instead is insane, like trading for Fox or Makar. So thanks for at least coming up with alternatives. Of the D you mention, do you think all or just some are better solutions than Chychrun (as opposed to just cheaper)? For example, I think Gostisbehere is a big net negative on the ice. For all the offense he's bringing this year, he's subtraction by addition. I suspect Lindholm won't be available as long as the Ducks are in the playoff mix, which I think will be through the trade deadline...and then the odds of signing him are slim IMO because high-end UFAs rarely sign in LA. Dunn might be available but is he really what the Kings need? Even on a terrible Kraken team he's struggling to play in the top 4 or even be a PP specialist. Martinez sounds good but then someone pointed out he's 34 (turns 35 in July) and has 2 more years at $5.25M. I thought he might be the right guy but that scared me off. I can't imagine Carolina trading Slavin since he's a key piece of a Cup contender. York is possible in the sense that Philly does bizarre stuff and they've said repeatedly that they aren't rebuilding, so they could trade him for veterans. Broberg isn't going anywhere, there's no chance the Oilers trade a guy with his potential - especially not for what the Kings have to offer back (young kids just like Broberg). Harley is the same as Broberg. Why would the Stars trade him when they're going to lose Klingberg?

BTW, it's not that I don't like the idea you're putting out there. I just think most LD anyone wants instead of Chychrun either 1. Aren't available at any reasonable price (e.g. the Oilers would say "Sure you can have Broberg...if you trade my Byfield.")...or 2. have their own problems (Gostisbehere sucks IMO, Martinez is old and paid too much, Dunn isn't proving himself to be a top 4 D).

Alternately we could stick with what we have and wait for the right deal to come along or use FA.

And if "the right deal" doesn't come along? Like I've said, when is the last time a D the quality of Chychrun was traded? We can disagree on how good he is or isn't, but whatever you think of him, when is the last time a guy like him was available? Unless you think his comp is a guy like Gostisbehere because then we're just not on the same page at all.

Inevitably we need to trade some forwards to make room for what management projects to be the future roster. That said, I really don't see overpaying for Chychrun being the answer. If we really want to go for broke let's put together a package and take a shot at Dahlin - we likely have the assets to pull it off.

Do you think Dahlin is available for anything less than Byfield + more? There's no way the Sabres would trade him for less and there's no way I'd deal Byfield + more for Dahlin.

 

[jt]

Provorov is really good but he's more of a 2 than a 1. He'd be a very good piece to get though. Downside to JC is the higher cap hit. The upside is Philly has York ready to slide into the top 4 on the left side plus Zamula in the pipeline. The Flyers desperately need prospects and Fletcher has made a slew of bad moves so maybe there is a deal to be made.

I agree Provorov is more of a 2 than a 1, but so is Chychrun and probably any LD that's available for less than Byfield + more. And with Doughty, I don't think they need a 1 for a few years and by then Clarke might be the 1. Or Grans. Or Spence. They've all got the offensive talent a true 1 has and also the hockey IQ to be a 1. The question is whether they can develop into that.

The other thing is that Philly has said Provorov isn't available and they've said it in a way that makes me believe it. Sure, anyone is available for the right price but I get the feeling that they won't trade him.

 

[santiclaws]

Thanks for playing the game.

That's the kind of thing that bugs me sometimes about fans. Too many times they say "don't do this" without having any idea what they'd do instead. Or what they'd do instead is insane, like trading for Fox or Makar. So thanks for at least coming up with alternatives. Of the D you mention, do you all or just some are better solutions than Chychrun (as opposed to just cheaper)? For example, I think Gostisbehere is a big net negative on the ice. For all the offense he's bringing this year, he's subtraction by addition. I suspect Lindholm won't be available as long as the Ducks are in the playoff mix, which I think will be through the trade deadline...and then the odds of signing him are slim IMO because high-end UFAs just don't sign in LA. Dunn might be available but is he really what the Kings need? Even on a terrible Kraken team he's struggling to play in the top 4 or even be a PP specialist. Martinez sounds good but then someone pointed out he's 34 (turns 35 in July) and has 2 more years at $5.25M. I was thought he might be the right guy but that scared me off. I can't imagine Carolina trading Slavin since he's a key piece of a Cup contender. York is possible in the sense that Philly does bizarre stuff and they've said repeatedly that they aren't rebuilding, so they could trade him for veterans. Broberg isn't going anywhere, there's no chance the Oilers trade a guy with his potential - especially not for what the Kings have to offer back (young kids just like Broberg). Harley is the same as Broberg. Why would the Stars trade him when they're going to lose Klingberg?

BTW, it's not that I don't like the idea you're putting out there. I just think most LD anyone wants instead of Chychrun either 1. Aren't available at any reasonable price (e.g. the Oilers would say "Sure you can have Broberg...if you trade my Byfield.")...or 2. have their own problems (Gostisbehere sucks IMO, Martinez is old and paid too much, Dunn isn't proving himself to be a top 4 D).



And if "the right deal" doesn't come along? Like I've said, when is the last time a D the quality of Chychrun was traded? We can disagree on how good he is or isn't, but whatever you think of him, when is the last time a guy like him was available? Unless you think his comp is a guy like Gostisbehere because then we're just not on the same page at all.



Do you think Dahlin is available for anything less than Byfield + more? There's no way the Sabres would trade him for less and there's no way I'd deal Byfield + more for Dahlin.

I just wanted to point out that whatever other negatives Gostisbehere may or may not have, he's 28, almost 29. Even assuming he and Chychrun were the exact same player, he would be likely past his prime when the kids have really taken over and are hopefully ready to contend for a Cup, not just a playoff spot. One of the most attractive things about Chychrun, in addition to his talent, is his age. He's probably not the player he is going to be yet, he has development years left. He'll still be in his prime when Byfield and the other kids are in theirs. He's a long-term solution, not a stop-gap.

 

[Clif]

I just wanted to point out that whatever other negatives Gostisbehere may or may not have, he's 28, almost 29. Even assuming he and Chychrun were the exact same player, he would be likely past his prime when the kids have really taken over and are hopefully ready to contend for a Cup, not just a playoff spot. One of the most attractive things about Chychrun, in addition to his talent, is his age. He's probably not the player he is going to be yet, he has development years left. He'll still be in his prime when Byfield and the other kids are in theirs. He's a long-term solution, not a stop-gap.

That’s the really interesting thing about Chychrun - you’re still trading for potential and not THE GUY. His stats don’t back him up as a number 1 D at this point.

But you’d have to think any GM is considering how he might develop further in a different system and what can be cleaned up as well as built upon. Definitely the big bucks decisions to determine what talent is worth parting with for what ceiling they project Chychrun to achieve.

 

[DryKing]

Thanks for playing the game.

That's the kind of thing that bugs me sometimes about fans. Too many times they say "don't do this" without having any idea what they'd do instead. Or what they'd do instead is insane, like trading for Fox or Makar. So thanks for at least coming up with alternatives. Of the D you mention, do you think all or just some are better solutions than Chychrun (as opposed to just cheaper)? For example, I think Gostisbehere is a big net negative on the ice. For all the offense he's bringing this year, he's subtraction by addition. I suspect Lindholm won't be available as long as the Ducks are in the playoff mix, which I think will be through the trade deadline...and then the odds of signing him are slim IMO because high-end UFAs rarely sign in LA. Dunn might be available but is he really what the Kings need? Even on a terrible Kraken team he's struggling to play in the top 4 or even be a PP specialist. Martinez sounds good but then someone pointed out he's 34 (turns 35 in July) and has 2 more years at $5.25M. I thought he might be the right guy but that scared me off. I can't imagine Carolina trading Slavin since he's a key piece of a Cup contender. York is possible in the sense that Philly does bizarre stuff and they've said repeatedly that they aren't rebuilding, so they could trade him for veterans. Broberg isn't going anywhere, there's no chance the Oilers trade a guy with his potential - especially not for what the Kings have to offer back (young kids just like Broberg). Harley is the same as Broberg. Why would the Stars trade him when they're going to lose Klingberg?

BTW, it's not that I don't like the idea you're putting out there. I just think most LD anyone wants instead of Chychrun either 1. Aren't available at any reasonable price (e.g. the Oilers would say "Sure you can have Broberg...if you trade my Byfield.")...or 2. have their own problems (Gostisbehere sucks IMO, Martinez is old and paid too much, Dunn isn't proving himself to be a top 4 D).

Yeah I wouldn't say that I think they players are better than Chychrun but they may be better fits in terms of cost. The idea behind players like Broberg, York and Harley is that we could potentially trade forward assets (likely prospects) for a defensemen. We know their existing teams want them, but they are not yet essential to the team (though York may be soon) which may benefit more by adding two to three high level forward prospects. Lindholm I think is better than Chychrun today, but a very different player and while Lindholm has likely hit his ceiling Chychrun can continue to grow. Dunn I think would be a much cheaper option and still has the ability to grow, Slavin is unlikely but it depends on how Carolina manages the cap, and Martinez would make a good bridge while we either develop, draft or trade for the right player. I also limited the idea to defensemen whose salaries the Kings could make work going forward.

What I am saying is that you can walk into a car dealer and look at the top of he line model, but sometimes it makes more sense to buy something more practical and instead spend the money upgrading your house. This becomes even more prudent if the car is selling for well over sticker price and is missing two to three options your heart was set on.

And if "the right deal" doesn't come along? Like I've said, when is the last time a D the quality of Chychrun was traded? We can disagree on how good he is or isn't, but whatever you think of him, when is the last time a guy like him was available? Unless you think his comp is a guy like Gostisbehere because then we're just not on the same page at all.

I'm not 100% sold that we need to trade for such a player rather than work on developing our own talent in house or use scouting to pull in talent from other leagues ala Christian Kasastul. The trade should happen if the right deal/player comes along, but right now there really isn't a need to force it.

Do you think Dahlin is available for anything less than Byfield + more? There's no way the Sabres would trade him for less and there's no way I'd deal Byfield + more for Dahlin.

Well I think Dahlin becomes more available with the addition of Powers but yeah it would take a lot. Buffalo needs quality forwards bad though, and the Kings have a pretty heft stock of high level prospects.

 

[DryKing]

I just wanted to point out that whatever other negatives Gostisbehere may or may not have, he's 28, almost 29. Even assuming he and Chychrun were the exact same player, he would be likely past his prime when the kids have really taken over and are hopefully ready to contend for a Cup, not just a playoff spot. One of the most attractive things about Chychrun, in addition to his talent, is his age. He's probably not the player he is going to be yet, he has development years left. He'll still be in his prime when Byfield and the other kids are in theirs. He's a long-term solution, not a stop-gap.

Good callouts and I agree but there is a flip side. #1 we would be banking on Chychrun to develop into the player we hope he can be and #2 if he does, he will be due a heft pay raise in 2025/6.

So two questions:

1) Will the Kings be cup contenders by the 2024-5 season
2) If Chrychrun becomes the player we hope he will be, will the Kings be able to afford his salary beginning in 2025/6?

Sadly I see the answer to both being a pretty realistic No.

 

[What party?]

Yeah I wouldn't say that I think they players are better than Chychrun but they may be better fits in terms of cost. The idea behind players like Broberg, York and Harley is that we could potentially trade forward assets (likely prospects) for a defensemen. We know their existing teams want them, but they are not yet essential to the team (though York may be soon) which may benefit more by adding two to three high level forward prospects. Lindholm I think is better than Chychrun today, but a very different player and while Lindholm has likely hit his ceiling Chychrun can continue to grow. Dunn I think would be a much cheaper option and still has the ability to grow, Slavin is unlikely but it depends on how Carolina manages the cap, and Martinez would make a good bridge while we either develop, draft or trade for the right player. I also limited the idea to defensemen whose salaries the Kings could make work going forward.

What I am saying is that you can walk into a car dealer and look at the top of he line model, but sometimes it makes more sense to buy something more practical and instead spend the money upgrading your house. This becomes even more prudent if the car is selling for well over sticker price and is missing two to three options your heart was set on.



I'm not 100% sold that we need to trade for such a player rather than work on developing our own talent in house or use scouting to pull in talent from other leagues ala Christian Kasastul. The trade should happen if the right deal/player comes along, but right now there really isn't a need to force it.



Well I think Dahlin becomes more available with the addition of Powers but yeah it would take a lot. Buffalo needs quality forwards bad though, and the Kings have a pretty heft stock of high level prospects.

This entire post just made me miss Old Top Gear* (the car metaphor did not help) this feels like it was written by three people (all with valid points) at once.

"What I am saying is that you can walk into a car dealer and look at the top of he line model, but sometimes it makes more sense to buy something more practical and instead spend the money upgrading your house. This becomes even more prudent if the car is selling for well over sticker price and is missing two to three options your heart was set on."

*Hbo max seasons 17-22 online now

 

[Helvetica]

So two questions:

1) Will the Kings be cup contenders by the 2024-5 season
2) If Chrychrun becomes the player we hope he will be, will the Kings be able to afford his salary beginning in 2025/6?

Sadly I see the answer to both being a pretty realistic No.

1. What are we even doing if the Kings still arent a solid playoff team by 24-25?
2. Why would we not be able to afford his salary? Quite a few large contracts come off between now and then, plus a bit more in dead cap. Kempe and Byfield are likely the only two players who will receive significant contracts beween now and then, while the rest of the players will be signing out of RFA status. Kings look to be in a pretty good spot financially between now and then.

 

[jt]

Yeah I wouldn't say that I think they players are better than Chychrun but they may be better fits in terms of cost. The idea behind players like Broberg, York and Harley is that we could potentially trade forward assets (likely prospects) for a defensemen. We know their existing teams want them, but they are not yet essential to the team (though York may be soon) which may benefit more by adding two to three high level forward prospects. Lindholm I think is better than Chychrun today, but a very different player and while Lindholm has likely hit his ceiling Chychrun can continue to grow. Dunn I think would be a much cheaper option and still has the ability to grow, Slavin is unlikely but it depends on how Carolina manages the cap, and Martinez would make a good bridge while we either develop, draft or trade for the right player. I also limited the idea to defensemen whose salaries the Kings could make work going forward.

All good ideas but would you say that about Clarke if some team called and said they'd trade you top forward prospects for him? IMO, every team is in that same situation: more high end F prospects than D prospects, so they want to hold on to their high end D prospects almost nomatter what they're offered.

What I am saying is that you can walk into a car dealer and look at the top of he line model, but sometimes it makes more sense to buy something more practical and instead spend the money upgrading your house. This becomes even more prudent if the car is selling for well over sticker price and is missing two to three options your heart was set on.

That's true, but car dealers rarely have as few high end cars the way the NHL has so few high end LD. And car dealers WANT you to take away their cars, I think very few NHL GMs WANT the Kings to take away their high end LD.

I'm not 100% sold that we need to trade for such a player rather than work on developing our own talent in house or use scouting to pull in talent from other leagues ala Christian Kasastul. The trade should happen if the right deal/player comes along, but right now there really isn't a need to force it.

That's certainly the question. I don't see any LD in the Kings system equal to or better than Chychrun. Do you? So if there's no high end LD, they have only high end RD. Can that work? I guess. But balance is better so both that LD and Doughty can play at the same time when needed.

As far as forcing it, that depends on how you define "need." I think the need is there so they can make the playoffs THIS season so the kids play in meaningful games to learn how different it is and what to work on in the offseason and just overall in their young careers. And a D of Doughty Durzi, Bjornfot, Moverare, Maatta, and Strand is a car held together with duct tape and super glue. It's going to fall apart, it's just a question of when. Even adding Anderson back, that D will have a hard time keeping up the rest of the season and into the playoffs.

Well I think Dahlin becomes more available with the addition of Powers but yeah it would take a lot. Buffalo needs quality forwards bad though, and the Kings have a pretty heft stock of high level prospects.

Man, I just don't see it. I don't think they trade LD Dahlin because they add LD Powers unless they get back a RD or F who's about the same. And the only player in the Kings system who fits that is Byfield. You don't get a guy like Dahlin for Turcotte + Clarke + 2022 1st + more.

 

[santiclaws]

1. What are we even doing if the Kings still arent a solid playoff team by 24-25?
2. Why would we not be able to afford his salary? Quite a few large contracts come off between now and then, plus a bit more in dead cap. Kempe and Byfield are likely the only two players who will receive significant contracts beween now and then, while the rest of the players will be signing out of RFA status. Kings look to be in a pretty good spot financially between now and then.

Was going to say the same thing, plus also: If you're not willing to pay big bucks to your in-his-prime first-pairing D-man, who are you willing to pay big bucks to?

 

[HeadInjury]

From Friedman's Latest 32 Thoughts:

25. So, what are the Kings looking for? Left-shot D, preferentially with some size. They are strong now -- and for the future -- on the right with Doughty, Sean Walker (injured, unfortunately), Matt Roy, Durzi, 2021 first-rounder Brandt Clarke, 2020 second-rounders Brock Faber and Helge Grans. When I mentioned that Arizona has a big lefty available, Blake pretended his phone wasn’t working (don’t want that tampering fine). He also mentioned “natural goal scoring.” He pointed to their Viktor Arvidsson deal, before adding “not as high a cost" (that was a second- and a third-rounder). But the Kings are in the race.

Hard to discern what he meant there. Was he suggesting they were looking for someone that would come at a lesser cost than Chuchrun?

 

[Helvetica]

Hard to discern what he meant there. Was he suggesting they were looking for someone that would come at a lesser cost than Chuchrun?

yeah, tough to really gauge. I think the hardest part is that were just not privy to what players are actually available. I think the Kings have to be in on Chych to some degree. With the cost as high as it seems, perhaps you're right.


I had been thinking a lot about matt greene and jarret stoll trade in the last couple days, and how significant it turned out to be. My personal feeling is that the Kings lack high end skill right now, and that that is what Blake should be hunting for. But... what sort of sleeper trades are available? Is there a less sexy trade out there that improves the team and plays into the team's identity? Greene and Stoll were heart and soul guys, played sort of an unsung hero role. But both also really fit the identity of that Kings team. Blake already went out and got arvidsson and danault, so maybe that was his greene and stoll type move, but if the asking price on chychrun just winds up being too high, i think something a little bit more under the radar is also an option.

 

[jt]

Good callouts and I agree but there is a flip side. #1 we would be banking on Chychrun to develop into the player we hope he can be and #2 if he does, he will be due a heft pay raise in 2025/6.

So two questions:

1) Will the Kings be cup contenders by the 2024-5 season
2) If Chrychrun becomes the player we hope he will be, will the Kings be able to afford his salary beginning in 2025/6?

Sadly I see the answer to both being a pretty realistic No.

1. What are we even doing if the Kings still arent a solid playoff team by 24-25?
2. Why would we not be able to afford his salary? Quite a few large contracts come off between now and then, plus a bit more in dead cap. Kempe and Byfield are likely the only two players who will receive significant contracts beween now and then, while the rest of the players will be signing out of RFA status. Kings look to be in a pretty good spot financially between now and then.

I think Helvetica is right.

If this team isn't contending by 2024-25 the problems go way beyond LD. I see no reason why they shouldn't be a Cup contender by then unless the all the kids flop, which looks unlikely right now.

And yes, they'll be able to afford his salary then. They'll have cleared a TON of cap space by then.

 

[jt]

From Friedman's Latest 32 Thoughts:

25. So, what are the Kings looking for? Left-shot D, preferentially with some size. They are strong now -- and for the future -- on the right with Doughty, Sean Walker (injured, unfortunately), Matt Roy, Durzi, 2021 first-rounder Brandt Clarke, 2020 second-rounders Brock Faber and Helge Grans. When I mentioned that Arizona has a big lefty available, Blake pretended his phone wasn’t working (don’t want that tampering fine). He also mentioned “natural goal scoring.” He pointed to their Viktor Arvidsson deal, before adding “not as high a cost" (that was a second- and a third-rounder). But the Kings are in the race.

Hard to discern what he meant there. Was he suggesting they were looking for someone that would come at a lesser cost than Chuchrun?

The way I read it is they're willing to pay a big price for that left D and they're willing to pay "not as high a cost" for some natural goal scoring. So Chychrun, Provorov, and guys like them for LD. And someone cheaper like Namestnikov or Kessel.

I had been thinking a lot about matt greene and jarret stoll trade in the last couple days, and how significant it turned out to be. My personal feeling is that the Kings lack high end skill right now, and that that is what Blake should be hunting for. But... what sort of sleeper trades are available? Is there a less sexy trade out there that improves the team and plays into the team's identity? Greene and Stoll were heart and soul guys, played sort of an unsung hero role. But both also really fit the identity of that Kings team. Blake already went out and got arvidsson and danault, so maybe that was his greene and stoll type move, but if the asking price on chychrun just winds up being too high, i think something a little bit more under the radar is also an option.

I think there are but it depends on how long Anderson is out. If he and Bjornfot are the LD defensive D then do you really pick up another? And if not, then what type of LD do you want other than a young dynamic one? I think it would be an older impending UFA (because they don't want to eat up next year's salary cap if they CAN acquire Chychrun, Provorov or another expensive young dynamic LD) who's a PP specialist...like Yandle. But I also think it's unlikely Yandle waives his NTC, so then who?

 

[Helvetica]

The way I read it is they're willing to pay a big price for that left D and they're willing to pay "not as high a cost" for some natural goal scoring. So Chychrun, Provorov, and guys like them for LD. And someone cheaper like Namestnikov or Kessel.

i think you're right. I misread that quote at first. So maybe Nic Roy from vegas... :winky2:

 

[santiclaws]

I think there are but it depends on how long Anderson is out.

I think they mentioned during the Pens game that he's not expected to be out for long, so I'd guess he'll be back for the next game after tonight, which is about two weeks away.

 

[jt]

I think they mentioned during the Pens game that he's not expected to be out for long, so I'd guess he'll be back for the next game after tonight, which is about two weeks away.

Which reminds me, when are Allison and Deadmarsh back?

j/k...sort of...not really...I hope not.

If he misses just 2.5 games from what looks like a concussion I'll be ecstatic and then of course there's no need to acquire that extra LD.