Fire coach!

[DarkLeftHand]

The first 31 games of the season:
20-7-4 44 points tied for 3rd in the West
101.7% PDO 98.9% Opp PDO
112 GF 74 GA +38 (2nd in the league)
10.5 Sh% 8.7 Opp Sh%
1060 SF 823 SA +7.6 shot differential per game
91.47% Sv 90.12% Opp Sv
31.01 Scoring Chances For/60 23.93 SCA/60
12.33 High Danger Chances For/60 8.89 HDCA/60

Last 16 games:
2-8-6 9 points 14th in the West
96.1% PDO 104.2% Opp PDO
36 GF 56 GA -20
6.8 Sh% 10.8 Opp Sh%
533 SF 491 SA +2.6 shot differential per game
89.39% Sv 93.42% Opp Sv
28.02 SCF/60 27.09 SCA/60
11.28 HDCF/60 10.9 HDCA/60

Not only have the Kings been extremely unlucky over this losing streak their defense has loosened up considerably and goaltending has fallen back to Earth. But what's unquestionably killing this team over this month long stretch has been the offense just collapsing. 6.8 shooting percentage is 31st in the league. Look at their scoring chances and high danger chances rate. They aren't that far off from the first 31. Everyone except Kempe just stopped scoring. Adrian Kempe leads the team with 5 goals since 12/28. That's a 25 goal pace over a full season.

So the question is: which segment of the season is the more accurate representation of the team? The first 31 or the last 16?

Right, it’s absolutely on the forwards not being able to score. During the first half of this losing streak, our goaltenders were limiting opponents to 2 goals or 3 goals a game. So even if the shooting percentage reverted back to somewhere in between the early season high, and this mid season low, we would probably be looking at a long stretch of .500 hockey. I’m not going to go back through them all, but how many games did the Kings fail fo muster more than a single goal? The answer is.. quite a few!

 

[Clif]

Right, it’s absolutely on the forwards not being able to score. During the first half of this losing streak, our goaltenders were limiting opponents to 2 goals or 3 goals a game. So even if the shooting percentage reverted back to somewhere in between the early season high, and this mid season low, we would probably be looking at a long stretch of .500 hockey. I’m not going to go back through them all, but how many games did the Kings fail fo muster more than a single goal? The answer is.. quite a few!

Just a few of the losses of on this stretch have been clunkers. However, there are so many blown leads and bad second periods that it still begs a question of what the hell is going on. These stats @Statue4Deano provide are hopeful because they really point to monumentally bad luck as a main culprit, but then what stats point to why they take their foot off the gas so consistently?

That’s why there’s a Fire Coach thread. And really something to think a little better luck and perhaps what needs to be done wouldn’t be done. Hopefully this is all for the best, whatever this even is.

 

[symbology]

The first 31 games of the season:
20-7-4 44 points tied for 3rd in the West
101.7% PDO 98.9% Opp PDO
112 GF 74 GA +38 (2nd in the league)
10.5 Sh% 8.7 Opp Sh%
1060 SF 823 SA +7.6 shot differential per game
91.47% Sv 90.12% Opp Sv
31.01 Scoring Chances For/60 23.93 SCA/60
12.33 High Danger Chances For/60 8.89 HDCA/60

Last 16 games:
2-8-6 9 points 14th in the West
96.1% PDO 104.2% Opp PDO
36 GF 56 GA -20
6.8 Sh% 10.8 Opp Sh%
533 SF 491 SA +2.6 shot differential per game
89.39% Sv 93.42% Opp Sv
28.02 SCF/60 27.09 SCA/60
11.28 HDCF/60 10.9 HDCA/60

Not only have the Kings been extremely unlucky over this losing streak their defense has loosened up considerably and goaltending has fallen back to Earth. But what's unquestionably killing this team over this month long stretch has been the offense just collapsing. 6.8 shooting percentage is 31st in the league. Look at their scoring chances and high danger chances rate. They aren't that far off from the first 31. Everyone except Kempe just stopped scoring. Adrian Kempe leads the team with 5 goals since 12/28. That's a 25 goal pace over a full season.

So the question is: which segment of the season is the more accurate representation of the team? The first 31 or the last 16?

These stats do not tell the entire story though. There are some root causes for the changes.

 

[symbology]

Here are some more numbers. The good teams in the West have been killing it. The Kings, not so much.

I borrowed this of the interwebs.... of course.

 

[Statue4Deano]

Here are some more numbers. The good teams in the West have been killing it. The Kings, not so much.

I borrowed this of the interwebs.... of course.

View attachment 8410

The good news is they built a cushion in that first 31 game run. There is still time to right the ship, make the playoffs and figure how to go on a playoff run. How does that happen? No clue. That’s part of the magic of professional sports. Sometimes the stars align like 2012…

 

[KingsFanInMA]

I agree. I also don't know if firing TMac fixes the underlying issues with the roster although, as everyone says, it is easier to fire the coach than fire the roster.

I'd wait and see what happens. If this is just horrible luck then we should revert to the mean. The Kings can reset at the all-star break and we'll see what happens in terms of making the playoffs and winning in the playoffs.

If things go poorly, I'd can Blake for the crazy PLD trade, capping us out (20 man roster to start season) when we hadn't won a single playoff series since 2014.

New GM can hire his or her own coach and buyout PLD before he turns 26 at a suprisingly low cap hit going forward: Pierre-Luc Dubois Buyout Results - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

If I thought for one second that Blake was even halfway smart enough to do this I would be ecstatic. It is my firm belief, however, that he is not.

 

[Rog or Reg?]

If I thought for one second that Blake was even halfway smart enough to do this I would be ecstatic. It is my firm belief, however, that he is not.

It pains me to say it, but I'm losing faith with Blake faster than I am with Coach Todd. Just the thought of going through another rebuilding process sucks, but the fact is Blake's been rebuilding for a while and was doing a good job until the PLD trade when, for all practical purposes, he began dismantling what he was building.

Between Coach Todd and Blake I see two very stubborn people, and history has proven time and again that stubbornness in sports management usually results in abject failure.

Over the years I've seen otherwise intelligent coaches and general managers sabotage themselves with stubbornness. Just take a look at the Dodgers and Dave Roberts. His intractability has cost the Dodgers at least two or three championships.

Meanwhile across town, Rams coach Sean McVay's stubbornness cost him a potential Super Bowl victory when they played the Patriots.

But the difference is McVay is intelligent enough to understand his intractability was becoming a liability and he even admitted as much and became much more flexible with his game plans and in-game management. And he won a Super Bowl as a result.

But Blake and Coach Todd are so stubborn it's impossible for me to understand how it's even possible that they don't realize that. Coach Todd's choices in OT speak for themselves. That boy is stubborn as a mule. He's become Dave Roberts on Ice. And my patience with him and Blake has been exhausted.

Sorry about the long-winded rant, but I've seen this movie before.

 

[symbology]

It pains me to say it, but I'm losing faith with Blake faster than I am with Coach Todd. Just the thought of going through another rebuilding process sucks, but the fact is Blake's been rebuilding for a while and was doing a good job until the PLD trade when, for all practical purposes, he began dismantling what he was building.

Which is why I think Luc and Bergevin were the ones pushing for this and sold Blade on the idea.

A brief list of reasons why this was a bad move.

1. He traded for someone that is not working out for the Kings, and for the most part has not worked out at his other two teams.
2. Gave said player 8 x 8.5mil
3. More importantly he freaking overpaid in assets.
4. Took a team that just got out of Cap Hell and buried it deeper than it was before.
5. Due to Cap issues, he went dumpster diving for goaltending (due to cap). One is already loosing his early season mojo, which is one of the reasons the team is on a losing streak. When Talbot was hot, the team was winning. When he went a little cool the team could not win. Now, he seems to be cooling off even more. Goaltending will be another question mark going into next year.
6. Again, due to the Cap he got Englund. While Englund has been better than expected on the back end, we need someone that is quicker and that can move the puck better.

I am not sure Blake does the above without guidance from the two French speakers.

 

[DryKing]

Which is why I think Luc and Bergevin were the ones pushing for this and sold Blade on the idea.

A brief list of reasons why this was a bad move.

1. He traded for someone that is not working out for the Kings, and for the most part has not worked out at his other two teams.
2. Gave said player 8 x 8.5mil
3. More importantly he freaking overpaid in assets.
4. Took a team that just got out of Cap Hell and buried it deeper than it was before.
5. Due to Cap issues, he went dumpster diving for goaltending (due to cap). One is already loosing his early season mojo, which is one of the reasons the team is on a losing streak. When Talbot was hot, the team was winning. When he went a little cool the team could not win. Now, he seems to be cooling off even more. Goaltending will be another question mark going into next year.
6. Again, due to the Cap he got Englund. While Englund has been better than expected on the back end, we need someone that is quicker and that can move the puck better.

I am not sure Blake does the above without guidance from the two French speakers.

I agree and have also been saying since the trade happened that Bergevin was the catalyst behind it. I'm not sure who brought in Bergevin to be Blake's advisor, but if it was Luc then I agree with you on the Luc point as well.

Honestly the idea that Blake was doing well at the time as a GM and building a strong roster, only to bring in a failed GM to advise him (one that shows a history of bad discussions and immoral actions in the grand scheme to win, only to lose) had to be a slap in the face to Blake and just an overall boneheaded decision. Whomever brought in Bergevin should be fired.

At the end of the day, though, Blake went along with it and also should be accountable for it. I do think the trade and currently overpaid contract will age well for the Kings, but putting the team in such an extreme cap crunch was never going to end well and basically was accepting something far less than a Cup run this season as a result. With the patchwork in goal I don't see how the expectation was even to make it to the 2nd round.

 

[Dr. Tran]

I’m not for or against Todd getting fired. But it may be necessary to change things. I do have a question. I could see Blake firing Todd. But what if it’s Blake that’s more deserving to get fired. Would Luc fire his friend & former teammate? And who would fire Luc if necessary? Uncle Phil? Or is there someone in between?

 

[symbology]

I’m not for or against Todd getting fired. But it may be necessary to change things. I do have a question. I could see Blake firing Todd. But what if it’s Blake that’s more deserving to get fired. Would Luc fire his friend & former teammate? And who would fire Luc if necessary? Uncle Phil? Or is there someone in between?

I think that "in between" person is still Dan Beckerman.

 

[MiketheKing]

Ding dong the witch, I mean the thread is dead!

 

[jammer06]

Since when did we decide it was a disqualification to speak French?

 

[ICE24]

The good news is they built a cushion in that first 31 game run. There is still time to right the ship, make the playoffs and figure how to go on a playoff run. How does that happen? No clue. That’s part of the magic of professional sports. Sometimes the stars align like 2012…

The Kings had a different mindset back in 2012. They beat you down. You didn't want to face them because you know you were going to take a physical beating along the way. They destroyed the second most physical team in the playoffs 4-0. The makeup of this team has little grit, they don't have players that want the puck at the end of the game. They are just not built that way, with that being said, I do hope you are right.

 

[Illegal_Stick]

I agree and have also been saying since the trade happened that Bergevin was the catalyst behind it. I'm not sure who brought in Bergevin to be Blake's advisor, but if it was Luc then I agree with you on the Luc point as well.

Honestly the idea that Blake was doing well at the time as a GM and building a strong roster, only to bring in a failed GM to advise him (one that shows a history of bad discussions and immoral actions in the grand scheme to win, only to lose) had to be a slap in the face to Blake and just an overall boneheaded decision. Whomever brought in Bergevin should be fired.

At the end of the day, though, Blake went along with it and also should be accountable for it. I do think the trade and currently overpaid contract will age well for the Kings, but putting the team in such an extreme cap crunch was never going to end well and basically was accepting something far less than a Cup run this season as a result. With the patchwork in goal I don't see how the expectation was even to make it to the 2nd round.

Screw that. Blake is the GM it is entirely his fault. He is in charge. Just like Petersen was 100% on him. He survived that one because there were so many other great moves, but he may not survive this one. The way Blake talked about PLD after the trade, it was clear he thought very highly of him. I generally like Blake but I’m not going to pretend his biggest blunder isn’t entirely his. He gets credit for Moore, Byfield, Danault and he gets blame for this… and I’d say Fiala too but I know most disagree

 

[King Ludwig]

Screw that. Blake is the GM it is entirely his fault. He is in charge. Just like Petersen was 100% on him. He survived that one because there were so many other great moves, but he may not survive this one. The way Blake talked about PLD after the trade, it was clear he thought very highly of him. I generally like Blake but I’m not going to pretend his biggest blunder isn’t entirely his. He gets credit for Moore, Byfield, Danault and he gets blame for this… and I’d say Fiala too but I know most disagree

Don't forget he signed......Kovalchuck...

 

[Illegal_Stick]

Don't forget he signed......Kovalchuck...

He did, but it affected nothing. I'd rather a GM who attempts a move like that when there's nothing to lose, then someone who is afraid to do it. Blake is bold if nothing else and overall, I think his positives outweigh his negatives, but the bad ones are starting to pile up - Petersen costs us draft picks, we gave up Iafallo, Vilardi, Durzi, Walker and so far have nothing in return. I won't harp on Fiala, but that trade cost us a lot in assets and money/term. I think Faber was going one way or another, but I know of the two offensively elite players available, I wish Debrincat had been the target. I thought a clear playoff issue was goaltending and we didn't address it.

What I'm saying is I think he gets away with Petersen and Kovalchuck and definitely Fiala because as frustrating as he is, he is an elite scorer. But when you combine them all with the Dubois trade - that's where his job is now in question.

 

[kingnut]

I think that "in between" person is still Dan Beckerman.

And he is the common denominator with the galaxy meltdown also