ICE24
Super Star
Bab's
Hiller Hotseat Thread
- Thread starter Birdman
- Start date
I really don't buy this notion that Hiller is handcuffed by the roster. This roster was boosted by off season additions (Perry, Armia) and the defense hasn't missed a beat despite losing Gav and Spence (4th/5th in the league). On paper this is an upgraded team. But what you're seeing is a group that is not playing to their ceiling. Motivation, structure, and providing an environment that propels players to their ceiling play is the responsibility of the coach!
hokiecat
Super Star
Same feelings here. Hiller definitely peaked last April and probably should have been fired for the playoff shenanigans. But playing devils advocate for him, what is he supposed to do?
We swapped Gavi and Spence for Ceci and Doom. So the defense got older, bigger, slower, and with less offensive skill. So we went from trying to win 3-2 to win 2-1. We added Perry and Armia. A pair of bottom 6 players who (have looked very good so they...) have either overachieved or shown how crummy the middle and bottom of the roster was.
The roster was basically locked up with those 2 high paid 4th line vets. During camp, there really weren't any jobs available save for maybe the slot with Perry out with the knee injury. KH gave Hiller a prefab roster. Nothing was expected to change unless some kid had a McDavid level training camp. What is he supposed to develop with this roster? Play the kids where?
We've had 3 seasons of a top-5 defense. That should count for something. The problems are: 1) the superstars are aging and the development of the prospects has not matched the decline of the senior veterans and 2) the summer trades/FA signings etc tend to finish with the roster in worse shape.
You can't fire the roster and the leadership so fire the coach. But don't expect a bump like when we got Sutter.
The strength of this team in prior years was the best top 9 forwards in the NHL and a great defense. Blake and then KH squandered that and now we've got the current low ceiling high floor roster. So one option is try to get back to what we had before by making trades to get "overpaid" players and try to rehab them. With a solid top 9 then if everyone does a little then nobody needs to do a lot.
100% on cleaning house. I don't know if the drafting is bad or the development is bad but the Kings have struggled for a long time now developing an impact player from the system.
I'm not against firing Hiller but the cuts need to go up to the GM and hopefully even higher. And no more development squad of Rob's surfing buddies (hyperbole but kinda true).
symbology
TEAM LGK
symbology
TEAM LGK
Not sure "boosted" is the term I would use. Defense can defend, but it is now worse at zone exits and getting the puck up the ice quickly. This hurts on the offensive side of things.
ICE24
Super Star
Good, we are all in agreement to move on from the coach and start the rebuild. Hiller did his best. Trade whomever they can before the trade deadline and over the longer than usual offseason. Start the rebuild this offseason with the draft choices they receive from the trades. Develop the young talent over five years. I would like to keep Laffy and Clarke.
DryKing
Power Forward
There is something off about his skating but he probably falls in the "average" category with the ability to become above average with a few adjustments to fundamentals.
Totally agree with you on compete. Having a high compete is one of Clarke's strengths (along with the ability to get under the opposing players skin).
Funny about the boat anchor comment, but that is pretty much all the Kings have on D to pair him up with outside of Anderson. Edmundson (who has been one of our better defenders this season) is the next best option.
Boosted on the forward roster for sure. Perry and Army were solid pickups. Missing Gav hurts, but the defense is still holding without him. Spence I don't really miss, he was pushed around more often than not.
symbology
TEAM LGK
The forward group is improved. This is true.
I strongly disagree on the D. For those times that Spence got pushed around or muscled off of the puck, Ceci has been lost and covering nobody while a goal was being scored. The Kings have issues getting the puck out of the zone and up the ice. Spence and Gavy helped with that compared to their replacements.
Ceci has a GF% of 41.3 vs 59.6 for Spence.
Ceci has a CF% of 52 vs 62 for Spence.
Last year Gavy had a GF% of 59.2 vs Dooms 47.8
Last year Gavy had a CF% of 55 vs Dooms 51
On this date last year the Kings had 121 GF vs 100 GA and they were ranked 1st in GA
As of today the Kings have 122 GF vs 131 GA and they are ranked 7th in GA
They kings are holding their own on D by giving up 31 more goals so far, while scoring just 1 more goal? That is some "boost".
Also you need to take into consideration that Forsberg has been playing much better this year compared to how Rittitch played last year, yet the GA is worse.
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I think you're conflating two things. The boost I mentioned was to the forward group as I said explicitly, not the defensive group. I said despite losing Gavy and Spence, our defense is still top of the league, which is true. They're currently 4th in GA. You can compare Ceci to Gavy individually, Ceci is obviously not as good. Neither is Doom. But yet the D core is still performing near peak statistics. (It might be more fair to compare the averages of Ceci and Doom to the averages of Spence and Gavy, though the overall results in low GA remain no matter the comparison)
We can all see the problem with the on ice product is that the guys who scored goals last year aren't scoring in the same way, despite the extra goals brought in by Perry and Army. So we know they're capable of elevated play, they're just not reaching their potential again. That sort of wholistic drop off in a forward group is on the coach. I don't buy that it's just so much bad luck, and the boys are victims of half a season of bad bounces. There is a systemic problem with the forward lines.
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Bollocks
Super Star
At this point of discussion, we need to add some clarity to this thread.
We need to ask ourselves what scenarios are realistic and which realistic scenario would be best (or, least worst), not what scenarios are ideal as per our individual viewpoint.
Looking at solving the situation this team is in idealistically will only compound on the pain.
Do we want to start anew with a rebuild? Hell yes.
Would this year be a good year to star it? Hell yes, it's a sellers market and the Kings have good pieces to trade.
Is it going to happen - realistically?
- This season - no.
- Next season - more likely, depending on how this season goes and what happens in the offseason.
Now that that is out of the way and considering the rebuild almost 100% won't start this season, these are the options:
1.) keeping Hiller and radically changing the personnel - there's only so much overhaul you can do mid-season, and this option is severely limited this year due to it being a sellers market; Hiller is not the only problem, but he is IMO the biggest problem and roster overhaul would cost a lot in future assets; worst case scenario, IMO very unlikely to happen
2.) replacing Hiller and staying put with the roster - the easiest way to go, but the roster stagnation might not be ideal both from asset management standpoint and from the "shock factor" standpoint; meh scenario; 4rd most likely scenario
3.) replacing Hiller and replacing one or two important pieces - 3rd most likely scenario
4.) staying put with the roster and Hiller - bad, as it will likely mean boring, uneventful hockey and barely missing the playoffs - the 2nd worst case scenario, 2nd most likely scenario
5.) keeping Hiller and replacing one or two roster pieces - most likely scenario
I hope for scenario nr. 3 where the replacing process includes shipping out Perry, Kuzmenko and Edmundson and adding a top 6 forward with term, a mobile 3rd pairing LD with some grit and size and keeping Lee on the NHL roster.
Considering Kopi is retiring and the Kings asset cupboard being quite empty, I really hope no scenario with roster change includes rentals.
We need to ask ourselves what scenarios are realistic and which realistic scenario would be best (or, least worst), not what scenarios are ideal as per our individual viewpoint.
Looking at solving the situation this team is in idealistically will only compound on the pain.
Do we want to start anew with a rebuild? Hell yes.
Would this year be a good year to star it? Hell yes, it's a sellers market and the Kings have good pieces to trade.
Is it going to happen - realistically?
- This season - no.
- Next season - more likely, depending on how this season goes and what happens in the offseason.
Now that that is out of the way and considering the rebuild almost 100% won't start this season, these are the options:
1.) keeping Hiller and radically changing the personnel - there's only so much overhaul you can do mid-season, and this option is severely limited this year due to it being a sellers market; Hiller is not the only problem, but he is IMO the biggest problem and roster overhaul would cost a lot in future assets; worst case scenario, IMO very unlikely to happen
2.) replacing Hiller and staying put with the roster - the easiest way to go, but the roster stagnation might not be ideal both from asset management standpoint and from the "shock factor" standpoint; meh scenario; 4rd most likely scenario
3.) replacing Hiller and replacing one or two important pieces - 3rd most likely scenario
4.) staying put with the roster and Hiller - bad, as it will likely mean boring, uneventful hockey and barely missing the playoffs - the 2nd worst case scenario, 2nd most likely scenario
5.) keeping Hiller and replacing one or two roster pieces - most likely scenario
I hope for scenario nr. 3 where the replacing process includes shipping out Perry, Kuzmenko and Edmundson and adding a top 6 forward with term, a mobile 3rd pairing LD with some grit and size and keeping Lee on the NHL roster.
Considering Kopi is retiring and the Kings asset cupboard being quite empty, I really hope no scenario with roster change includes rentals.
symbology
TEAM LGK
IMO, the Kings have no true #1C. QB has yet to become that player, and father time has been catching up with Kopi. The Kings also do not have a #1D, Drew has not really been that player for a little while due to age / injuries.
Best thing to realistically happen is for the Kings is to find a top center via trade. Many on here have been floating the idea of Pettersson from the Nucks. If he can be had without giving up to much of the current roster that is the best move IMO. This would give the Kings a good chance to win now. There are cap implications with this move though.
If this were to happen and the team headed into the offseason, they would still pretty much be stuck. They have to many "meh" players with NMC/NTC and it will be hard to make any further changes. Many of the assets that the Kings have now would have been spent to acquire the new center, and/or replace what players were traded for said player. So, without any assets the Kings will be stagnant for the next few years.
This team would be the same going into next year, but you would have EP instead of AK. However, you still have to much crap on the backend that will be difficult, or near impossible to move.
Here is the Kings D line up. This is not pretty at all and all of the old timers have NTC's of some sort.
DD is 36 yrs old with 2 yrs left on his deal.
CC is 32 yrs old with 4 yrs left on his deal.
JE is 32 yrs old with 3 yrs left on his deal.
BD is 34 yrs old with 3 yrs left on his deal.
MA is 26 yrs old with 5 yrs left on his deal.
BC is 22 yrs old and is still an RFA.
Replace Hiller? Sure, but who replaces him?
Clif
Super Star
The roster has problems but Hiller’s outdated, safety-always system clouds better roster analysis. Byfield has become a top shutdown center by the way and playing against the best competition but the rest of his game is stalled. Believe in him or not, you get to be right if you don’t from an offensive perspective until proven otherwise, but I need to see him play in a system that better values actual playmaking.
Best case scenario is take a two-year breather and retool. Bring up or move prospects early. Most of Brusty, Wooley, Greentree, Cihar, George, Slukynsky, Portillo, Ziemmer, Dvorak, and Connors should be on this roster in 27-28 and those who aren’t should have been packaged along with players like Moore, Fiala, Dumoulin/Edmundson.
Doesn’t matter if Hiller stays or DJ is interim. This team plays how it’s going to play this season. New approach starts this summer.
Best case scenario is take a two-year breather and retool. Bring up or move prospects early. Most of Brusty, Wooley, Greentree, Cihar, George, Slukynsky, Portillo, Ziemmer, Dvorak, and Connors should be on this roster in 27-28 and those who aren’t should have been packaged along with players like Moore, Fiala, Dumoulin/Edmundson.
Doesn’t matter if Hiller stays or DJ is interim. This team plays how it’s going to play this season. New approach starts this summer.
symbology
TEAM LGK
Fair enough on your use of the word boost.
The Kings are 4th in GA which sounds nice, but if you look at the numbers and the huge gap in GA from the 2nd place to 3rd place teams so it looks better than it is. Not that the Kings are horrible, but they are giving up almost .5 goal more per game this year compared to last year.
Not only are the Kings giving up more goals, but they are scoring fewer. This is not only on the forwards. The defensemen as a whole are generating less offense and have scored fewer points. The only two D that are generating anything are the Edmundson/Clarke pairing. I think DD's offensive numbers for this year are worse than Gavy's last year and DD gets PP time. Anderson is scoring about 1/3 the number of points that he put up last year. Then, you add CC and Doom and here we are.
Perry has been good as has Armia. Though Armia has done much of his scoring on the PK, so 5 on 5 he is not offering much of a boost.
In order for a team to defend well, the forwards need to help out. It is not all about the 6 D. In order for a team to generate offence the defensemen have to be involved. This D core has become older and slower than it was last year. This team does not exit the zone well, rarely generates speed through the neutral zone.
I agree that the lack of scoring has not been bad luck. It is a combination of the roster and the coach, with the roster (on the backend) being the primary issue. A coach cannot turn big/old/slow D into mobile puck movers that can help get the puck up the ice.
Just look at the numbers since the Wild made that trade for Hughes. Their zone exits improved, rush chances and many other offensive metrics took a big leap forward. Do not underestimate the impact to this team that was caused by the changes on D.
symbology
TEAM LGK
Has Hiller changed his coaching style so much this year vs last year, or has the roster changed more (especially on the backend) ?
If you look at the scoring numbers from the backend from last year and compare them to this year it is not a pretty picture.
Clif
Super Star
He’s gotten even more restrictive, yes. He actually rolled four lines last season. His fear-based approach of sitting back really surfaced in the postseason. This season he’s had the team playing that way since October.
Your analysis of the backend is spot-on, however, and a serious contributing factor. Yes Spence got knocked off the puck at times. Yes Durzi committed brutal giveaways. But the game is give-and-take or it’s whatever slog this is under Hiller. This team needs one of those guys now, but since they were brilliantly given away for cheap Clarke should be playing 22-24 minutes a night.
Statue4Deano
Super Star
Hiller deserves to be fired if we only judged him on how he’s handled Clarke. Now if he wants to try to shift the blame to DJ Smith because technically he handles the D, I say they both need to go.
symbology
TEAM LGK
What do you mean by sitting back? From what I recall the Kings play to close out games in last years playoffs was the team's reaction to what was happening on the ice. Not based on direction from the coach. This is per player interviews.
The team is comprised of "safe" players especially on the back end. They are sort of built to play safe.
Regardless, if the team keeps doing it when they should not be that would be on the coach for not fixing the issue.
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Clif
Super Star
They went into total shutdown mode in the playoffs in a way they hadn’t before. I don’t see guys like Fiala or Kempe electing to stop attacking on their own. That said, they may have eased up because they were tired, which is still a Hiller ice time problem.
But I do not believe they like to collectively go one forward up with four plays back in the neutral zone when they have a one goal lead in the regular season.