Marner Watch

Fiala also has/had a terrible playoff rep
This made me do more stats checks.

Fiala has had 15 pts in 14 playoff games as a King and is +2. Averages about 10 in shooting pct over those games.

9 pts in 17 games for MN and a -10. 15.8 s% his first year with them but dropped to 4.5 and then 0. Sure, you keep other guys when the cap forces decisions.

6 pts in 18 games for NSH and -4 fwiw also.
 
TSN has Chicago as the betting choice BTW:

Why TF would Marner go to Chicago? To play with Bedard? Big whoop. They’re still terrible. At least Anaheim & Utah are on the rise. And if any team should have the worst odds, it’s Toronto. After the way their fans treat him, why would he stay? They blame him for their playoff losses & even post his address online. And that’s when he was 6th in playoff points. I wouldn’t stay for that.

He should be the Kings #1 target. He’d be the best player on the team. And I believe we have the money to sign him for $12 or $13 million, whatever the going rate is for him. And we also have the money to sign Kempe for an extension, which should be around $10 million. And if no Marner then look for other options, including trades. I wonder what’s going on with Jason Robertson in Dallas?
 
Why TF would Marner go to Chicago? To play with Bedard? Big whoop. They’re still terrible. At least Anaheim & Utah are on the rise. And if any team should have the worst odds, it’s Toronto. After the way their fans treat him, why would he stay? They blame him for their playoff losses & even post his address online. And that’s when he was 6th in playoff points. I wouldn’t stay for that.

He should be the Kings #1 target. He’d be the best player on the team. And I believe we have the money to sign him for $12 or $13 million, whatever the going rate is for him. And we also have the money to sign Kempe for an extension, which should be around $10 million. And if no Marner then look for other options, including trades. I wonder what’s going on with Jason Robertson in Dallas?
Yes, WTF is going in in Dallas? I have admired Nill and his ability to build a great team. They're finally out from Benn's overpay contract and soon will be done with Seguin. Good players but not worth the top dollar payments. But Dallas is heading into Cap hell, so how about Holland tries to pick their bones. I don't think we'd get Benn but he's a perfect 4th line center if the price is right. Size with some scoring and snarl while slow. Matt Duchene might want to finally get paid on a multi-year deal. Granlund is depth but IDK if we need middle 6 who aren't big. Maybe they'll dump Mason Marchment for cheap in a salary cut (plus he hasn't been amazing in the playoffs). And if we can bring Robertson back to SoCal??? Do it Kenny.
 
Yes, WTF is going in in Dallas? I have admired Nill and his ability to build a great team. They're finally out from Benn's overpay contract and soon will be done with Seguin. Good players but not worth the top dollar payments. But Dallas is heading into Cap hell, so how about Holland tries to pick their bones. I don't think we'd get Benn but he's a perfect 4th line center if the price is right. Size with some scoring and snarl while slow. Matt Duchene might want to finally get paid on a multi-year deal. Granlund is depth but IDK if we need middle 6 who aren't big. Maybe they'll dump Mason Marchment for cheap in a salary cut (plus he hasn't been amazing in the playoffs). And if we can bring Robertson back to SoCal??? Do it Kenny.
I was talking to someone, is it worse to be a Kings fan or a Hurricanes fan right now? To go 1-16 in the ECF. Do you even care when they win the first round next year?

The Stars losing the WCF handily three years in a row. Again, you’ve built a team that appears truly elite until mid-May and then it all just collapses.

Kings give me other illusions, like if they can just win that first round…
 
This Mornings dump:

Chicago not going to be a blank check per the Athletic beat writer for the Hawks:

For one, if Marner does hit the open market, the Blackhawks, like everyone else, would likely inquire about him. The Blackhawks just aren’t expected to open their checkbook and allow Marner to fill out the amount. That alone probably wouldn’t make them a true player for him.

As much as they like Marner, they don’t see him — or any unrestricted free agent — as an essential piece to add, considering where they are in their rebuild. He isn’t the Brian Campbell or Marián Hossa that puts them over the top. Two years from now, as the Blackhawks’ youth grows older and more established, that could be different. But as of now, the Blackhawks don’t believe there’s enough upside in making Marner one of the league’s highest-paid players.

Daily Faceoff Ranked their Fits and has the Kings at #2 behind Vegas:

Why it’s a fit: The Kings featured many characteristics of a true Stanley Cup contender this season. They were deep, they were arguably the NHL’s best defensive team, and they got elite goaltending from Darcy Kuemper. But despite doing a good job driving the play at both ends, they ranked 14th in goals and 27th in power-play efficiency. Marner isn’t a sniper, of course, but he’s an elite facilitator; only four forwards averaged more primary assists per 60 on the power play this past season. No King has scored 100 points since Wayne Gretzky in 1993-94; Marner could fill their superstar void and forge a new long-term forward core alongside Quinton Byfield and Adrian Kempe as future Hall of Famer Anze Kopitar inches closer to this end of his career.

Why it isn’t: The Kings can afford Marner at first glance, with $21.7 million in cap space. But some of it will go toward extending RFA right winger Alex Laferriere and perhaps re-signing minute-muncher defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov. Our pals at AFP Analytics project a $7.6 million AAV for Gavrikov and $13 million for Marner, so once we factor in Laferriere, the Kings run out of room in a hurry. It’s worth it to pursue Marner, of course, but it does appear new GM Ken Holland would have to move some veteran money out to make the contract work.

And if there's any of you questioning why he might want out of Toronto, they are debating if he leaves if his number should be retired there..:

 
The Chicago stuff feels like Marner’s team trying to chum the waters to get LA, Vegas and Carolina into a frenzy. I just don’t believe Marner would leave Toronto for one of the worst rosters in the league just so he can play with Bedard.
 
This Mornings dump:

Chicago not going to be a blank check per the Athletic beat writer for the Hawks:



Daily Faceoff Ranked their Fits and has the Kings at #2 behind Vegas:



And if there's any of you questioning why he might want out of Toronto, they are debating if he leaves if his number should be retired there..:

Speaking of his number...Marner in LA means giving up #16. A minor point with that much money on the line but some dudes are weird about this kind of thing.
 
He wore #93 in Juniors. Couldn’t get that one in Toronto for some reason…
Call me crazy but I think people are getting ahead of themselves on Marner or another prime FA signing.
Yeah, I can be convinced that getting Marner is a good idea. But I also think it’s unlikely that it happens.

This is a fairly weak FA class. There aren’t more than a couple game-changers, if even that.
Getting the prime ones are going to cost money. What with the shortage of good players AND the cap rising, the cost is going to be steep.

If the Kings truly want Marner (and I don’t know that they do) it’s going to be a tough sell at 12-13M per season. IF the Kings really want him, they could probably do so at 15M. But that’s just crazy money.

I think the real acquisition is most likely to come in a trade this off-season OR next year via trade or FA.

I think I see this anticipation of getting Marner becoming a little overzealous, with fans getting negative if it doesn’t happen. We just don’t know how much interest Holland has to make that deal.

The Kings are not far off, and keeping Gavrikov, re-signing Laffy, extending Kempe, are all important steps.
There are some upgrades to be made. Perhaps Bennett (although very unlikely) or Marchand makes good sense. Perhaps getting a righty D on the second or third pair would help. Boeser at the right price is interesting. Maybe Kuzmenko for a shortish term is a good option.

I am not interested in signing other names who are FA’s, like Duchesne or Marchmant. Don’t see a lot of value at their cost.

The Kings are not desperate. I just don’t want to see them act like they are.
 
The Kings are not desperate. I just don’t want to see them act like they are.
Agree with most everything you wrote but I’m not so sure about this part. Hiring a 70 year old semi-retired GM seems a bit desperate. I think 10 years of failing to get past the 1st round, your first GM hire failing, firing 3 head coaches and losing to the Oilers 4 years in a row should have Luc on the hot seat. We’ll see how hot the seat is this summer.

If Holland does something stupid after missing out on Marner I think it’s a good sign Luc (and the front office) is in desperation mode.
 
Agree with most everything you wrote but I’m not so sure about this part. Hiring a 70 year old semi-retired GM seems a bit desperate. I think 10 years of failing to get past the 1st round, your first GM hire failing, firing 3 head coaches and losing to the Oilers 4 years in a row should have Luc on the hot seat. We’ll see how hot the seat is this summer.

If Holland does something stupid after missing out on Marner I think it’s a good sign Luc (and the front office) is in desperation mode.
I think I can agree with a lot of this.
I’ve read a couple things about Holland and his departure from EDM. One was that he had some health issues. Was that the way to explain it away, or was it true? No idea.
I also think Holland was not great with EDM, and talk about a desperate organization at the time. I wonder how the atmosphere in that org played into some of the moves Holland made. A win-now dictate from above could explain some of that.

I don’t know if Holland was a desperate move by Luc or the Kings. Holland has a history and a decent enough reputation, had a prior relationship and trust with Luc. It was important to get a GM in place. The speed of this hiring may have the appearance of it being desperate.

I think Holland was clear that he still felt passion for doing this. While it’s not incorrect to label him semi-retired, I don’t know that he had previously decided to stop doing this work. I suppose I view it a bit like Sutter, who had taken a hiatus from hockey but accepted an opportunity that made sense.
I don’t know that Holland would have been interested in a rebuild, but was interested in a team that looked like a contender.
Maybe Holland had misgivings about EDM, and wanted a chance to add to his legacy.

I do agree with the reference to hiring a 70-year old. Holland must feel urgency about this job, and I don’t think we know the length of his contract. I hope that urgency doesn’t come with desperation.

I think you’re right that we should know the mindset fairly soon. Chasing and throwing money at players in a reckless or maniacal manner is a fear.
Holland believes the Kings are close. Does Holland look for minor upgrades at a couple spots or is he looking for a franchise player?
Does Holland like the Kings prospects and wants them to play, or does he want veterans?

My thoughts are that I don’t think getting Marner is the make or break for the next season, that the Kings may actually be only tweeks away from winning, and I hope we can get there without making mistakes that hinder the path.
 
I think I can agree with a lot of this.
I’ve read a couple things about Holland and his departure from EDM. One was that he had some health issues. Was that the way to explain it away, or was it true? No idea.
I also think Holland was not great with EDM, and talk about a desperate organization at the time. I wonder how the atmosphere in that org played into some of the moves Holland made. A win-now dictate from above could explain some of that.

I don’t know if Holland was a desperate move by Luc or the Kings. Holland has a history and a decent enough reputation, had a prior relationship and trust with Luc. It was important to get a GM in place. The speed of this hiring may have the appearance of it being desperate.

I think Holland was clear that he still felt passion for doing this. While it’s not incorrect to label him semi-retired, I don’t know that he had previously decided to stop doing this work. I suppose I view it a bit like Sutter, who had taken a hiatus from hockey but accepted an opportunity that made sense.
I don’t know that Holland would have been interested in a rebuild, but was interested in a team that looked like a contender.
Maybe Holland had misgivings about EDM, and wanted a chance to add to his legacy.

I do agree with the reference to hiring a 70-year old. Holland must feel urgency about this job, and I don’t think we know the length of his contract. I hope that urgency doesn’t come with desperation.

I think you’re right that we should know the mindset fairly soon. Chasing and throwing money at players in a reckless or maniacal manner is a fear.
Holland believes the Kings are close. Does Holland look for minor upgrades at a couple spots or is he looking for a franchise player?
Does Holland like the Kings prospects and wants them to play, or does he want veterans?

My thoughts are that I don’t think getting Marner is the make or break for the next season, that the Kings may actually be only tweeks away from winning, and I hope we can get there without making mistakes that hinder the path.
It's interesting to think about. We have Utah who seems ready to make the playoffs next season and looks to be a contender within the next 2-3 seasons (they have more solid prospects to bring up who look like playoff performers). Anaheim also is getting closer and likely a couple seasons behind Utah, along with San Jose. What this means is if the Kings are going to make a deep run their best change in doing so in within the next 2 seasons. When you look at it with that type of urgency, more than minor tweaks are needed.

I foresee the Kings attempting to go all-in this off season, and Marner would be one of the best possible outcome. Let's face it, he's a top 5 wing in the league and those are hard to come by. Sure he has his question marks, but a playoff team in the West picking him up would reduce the Kings chances during their prime window (the next two seasons) and possibly make a rebuild look more attractive
 
Is Marner a top-dollar game changer? I conclude no. 11 million+ contracts need to be reserved for superstars, not quality, regular-season studs. I say hard pass on Marner. Marner will not put butts in the seat either.
 
Does everyone think Marner’s going to get something like $15 million? I’m not sure about that. I get that he’s the best of a weak free agent class & the cap is going up. But the top 3 salaries right now are Matthews at $13.25 million, MacKinnon at $12.6 million, & McDavid at $12.5 million. He might get a little more than that but not much more. Maybe $14 million at the most. Or he could get within that range, idk.
 
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