Marner Watch

[Statue4Deano]

Top-end firepower from forwards is not the Kings problem. Zero offense and a big shot from the blue line is the issue and if they don't fix that there will be no round 2 next year as well.

I contend they still do need another skilled forward BUT even if I agree with your premise, Marner is not just a "top-end forward with firepower." He's an elite defensive winger AND and an elite offensive winger. That's the whole point of why the Kings should break the bank for him. If he's not scoring he still has the ability to play defense better than any winger on the team. I'd say the Kings absolutely could've used another forward who can play defense in that series vs. the Oilers.

 

[Statue4Deano]

The 9 most intriguing teams of NHL free agency: What I heard from a buzzy draft combine

Which teams are poised to make big moves over the next few weeks, and for who? Plus, an update on CBA talks.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Johnnysuede71]

I contend they still do need another skilled forward BUT even if I agree with your premise, Marner is not just a "top-end forward with firepower." He's an elite defensive winger AND and an elite offensive winger. That's the whole point of why the Kings should break the bank for him. If he's not scoring he still has the ability to play defense better than any winger on the team. I'd say the Kings absolutely could've used another forward who can play defense in that series vs. the Oilers.

It seems simple and straightforward to me. Could an already established cup-contending roster use an elite top 10 forward who will fit perfectly into the system they already play? A guy who is peaking as we speak and will be a franchise cornerstone for years to come? Who will be playing in front of a top 5 defense and (hopefully) continued high-level goaltending? Does he make this a team that can beat the Edmonton Oilers in a first round playoff series and potentially go much deeper than that?

The answer is DUH.

The Kings legacy is to not aggressively pursue these types of players in free agency. (in fact it has NEVER happened...an over-the-hill Kovalchuk certainly does not count. Rob Scuderi?...a fine 4th or 5th D-man. Wow. Willie Mitchell?...a good impact player certainly but hardly sexy).

That needs to change NOW. This team is way over due to have this kind of talent on the roster. Kempe is a fabulous player but elite? You could make the argument that our last elite level player was Ziggy Palffy from...you know like....20 years ago. (and even he only broke 90 points once in his career.)

To quote Teddy KGB: 'Give dat myan his money'

Get him Ken...and re-sign Gavrikov.

Add a dash of Hiller not crapping the bed and you have your cup-contender.

The end.

 

[Dr. Tran]

Top-end firepower from forwards is not the Kings problem. Zero offense and a big shot from the blue line is the issue and if they don't fix that there will be no round 2 next year as well.

I think they're both issues the Kings have to deal with. Fixing the blue line would have to be done through a trade. And we get Marner.

 

[jammer06]

Doms Analysis of Marners next contract is up:

Mitch Marner’s next contract and the burden of expectations

More money means a higher bar of expectations for Mitch Marner to clear. What does he really want as he hits free agency?

www.nytimes.com

The key line for me:

It would not be a shock if there was a bidding war on July 1 that got Marner’s number up to $13.5 million or even $14 million. It should be noted, too, that $13.5 million is in line with Artemi Panarin’s percentage of cap hit six years ago.

For reference here's his buyer beware on Bennet:

Sam Bennett’s next contract and the price of an NHL playoffs pedigree

Playoff Bennett is a gamer — he is elite. Regular-Season Bennett is a perfectly fine 2C but not much more. So what is that worth?

www.nytimes.com

On the one hand, you have a soon-to-be 29-year-old second-line center — a decent one that plays with an edge and has scored at a 53-point pace since joining the Florida Panthers. And that’s despite rarely getting much time on the top power play. A great player, but far from an elite one. On the other hand, there’s Playoff Bennett: an absolute monster who elevates his game in big moments, scores big goals, makes big hits and knows how to toe the line. Over the last three playoffs, Bennett has 25 goals and 48 points in 55 games — a 35-goal and 68-point pace. The former ranks 12th among the 99 forwards to have played 20 or more playoff games, and that’s again without much time on the top power play. Playoff Bennett is a gamer, a tough-as-nails scorer 32 of 32 teams would be lucky to have. Playoff Bennett is elite.

And I think this got into the Holland thread but here's Gavrikov:

Vladislav Gavrikov’s next contract and the contract-year phenomenon

Gavrikov had an excellent year for the Kings. But how much should teams trust a contract-year performance when making the UFA an offer?

www.nytimes.com

Specifically his comment about contract year bump in performance:

Here’s what I found regarding the contract-year phenomenon, focusing on players expected to earn the most where aging was less of a concern.

Over the last five seasons, there have been 100 unrestricted free agent skaters aged 31 or younger projected to earn an above-average contract according to Evolving-Hockey’s contract projections. Those 100 players were expected to see their projected Net Rating decline by 0.29 goals due to age. They instead improved by 0.55 goals, a 0.84-goal difference. That’s the contract-year bump, something 58 percent of the sample experienced.

Perhaps more interesting is what happens next: a steep decline back to reality. The expected drop after getting a new contract for the 100 players based on their age was 0.46 goals (or 0.75 goals in total). The actual decline was 1.59 goals (1.04 goals in total), completely erasing the contract-year bump and moving below the initial baseline. 65 percent of the selected skaters saw a post-contract decline larger than expected given their age.

 

[Statue4Deano]

Doms Analysis of Marners next contract is up:


And I think this got into the Holland thread but here's Gavrikov:

Vladislav Gavrikov’s next contract and the contract-year phenomenon

Gavrikov had an excellent year for the Kings. But how much should teams trust a contract-year performance when making the UFA an offer?

www.nytimes.com

Dom is extremely insightful as always. Kings dodged a bullet on Matt Roy’s absurd contract and I really hope they dodge another if Gavrikov signs somewhere else for $8M.

 

[symbology]

Dom is extremely insightful as always. Kings dodged a bullet on Matt Roy’s absurd contract and I really hope they dodge another if Gavrikov signs somewhere else for $8M.

I agree, especially since he is a bit of a redundant player on this team. He will leave a hole, that is for sure. I see it as a hole that can be filled with a different type of LHD.

 

[DryKing]

Doms Analysis of Marners next contract is up:

Mitch Marner’s next contract and the burden of expectations

More money means a higher bar of expectations for Mitch Marner to clear. What does he really want as he hits free agency?

www.nytimes.com

The key line for me:


For reference here's his buyer beware on Bennet:

Sam Bennett’s next contract and the price of an NHL playoffs pedigree

Playoff Bennett is a gamer — he is elite. Regular-Season Bennett is a perfectly fine 2C but not much more. So what is that worth?

www.nytimes.com

And I think this got into the Holland thread but here's Gavrikov:

Vladislav Gavrikov’s next contract and the contract-year phenomenon

Gavrikov had an excellent year for the Kings. But how much should teams trust a contract-year performance when making the UFA an offer?

www.nytimes.com

Specifically his comment about contract year bump in performance:

This is my fear in regards to giving Gav a big extension - I just don't see him living up to it in the long run. He's a very good defender but he is slow, and that speed will continue to decline as the game projects to get faster. He also does not have much of a physical element and relies on his poke check (possibly due to lack of speed). He did well this offseason of ramping up the physical aspect of his game, but it's hard to think that will last. He also has little to no offense in his game. I wouldn't be surpised if he has a $7m/AAV worth given the cap increase, but we need to realize we are buying high and anything beyond that is walkaway money.

$14m AAV for Marner seems about right, given the bidding war. Not sure I would go beyond that but we did give bigger contracts, in terms of %, to both Kopitar and DD and given how much the cap has increased over the last 5 years alone, even $15m may end up being a deal. As others have mentioned, Marner is good on both ends of the ice and even should his offense erode (which I don't think it will as he has a more cerebral game), his defense will still prove invaluable.

 

[hokiecat]

Dom is extremely insightful as always. Kings dodged a bullet on Matt Roy’s absurd contract and I really hope they dodge another if Gavrikov signs somewhere else for $8M.

Absurd contract? He's a minute muncher who is a top-4 D. That isn't worth 6 x 5.75? I'd argue Blake has continually mismanaged the roster and we've lost a multitude of top 4 righty D (the harder ones to find) for peanuts. Let's refuse to pay decent salaries for top-4 defensemen, overpay for bottom pairing guys like Edmundson, and then give the bag to reputed playoff choker like Marner. What could possibly go wrong?

 

[jammer06]

Dom is extremely insightful as always. Kings dodged a bullet on Matt Roy’s absurd contract and I really hope they dodge another if Gavrikov signs somewhere else for $8M.

My biggest problem with Roy was never the 8m number, it was that he was never the driver on his line. He might score the goals or whatever but he was a 2, 4, or 6. He was never a 1,3, or 5.

 

[symbology]

My biggest problem with Roy was never the 8m number, it was that he was never the driver on his line. He might score the goals or whatever but he was a 2, 4, or 6. He was never a 1,3, or 5.

Spence replaced Roy for the most part. Spence had a rough year, IMO, but their overall stats were still very similar. Spence did not eat up the same minutes as Roy though.

Roy was a solid D for the Kings, but he was redundant. The Kings went with the cheaper route with Spence. I will not be heart broken if the Kings let Gavy walk as well.

 

[DryKing]

Spence replaced Roy for the most part. Spence had a rough year, IMO, but their overall stats were still very similar. Spence did not eat up the same minutes as Roy though.

Roy was a solid D for the Kings, but he was redundant. The Kings went with the cheaper route with Spence. I will not be heart broken if the Kings let Gavy walk as well.

Spence will never have the grit or defensive prowess Roy has/had but he has a lot more upside offensively. All-in he is a better replacement Gav who has very little physical component to his game.

This is why giving up all of those 1st and 2nd round draft picks have really hurt the Kings - we have no pipeline by which to backfill for players these days once they price out.

My biggest problem with Roy was never the 8m number, it was that he was never the driver on his line. He might score the goals or whatever but he was a 2, 4, or 6. He was never a 1,3, or 5.

Roy's AAV is $5.75m and that is a steal for what he brings. He was arguably our best defensive defenseman who showed a bit of offense and grit. I would take him over Gav based on what our current team lacks.

The idea of passing on Roy at $5.75m and extending Gav at $7-8m is just silly, but it's where we find ourselves today as player salaries are increasing at an alarming rate.

 

[MiketheKing]

If watching these playoffs and the type of players that get it done doesn't point to you the fact that Marner is a waste of money then nothing will.

 

[MiketheKing]

Spence will never have the grit or defensive prowess Roy has/had but he has a lot more upside offensively. All-in he is a better replacement Gav who has very little physical component to his game.

This is why giving up all of those 1st and 2nd round draft picks have really hurt the Kings - we have no pipeline by which to backfill for players these days once they price out.


Roy's AAV is $5.75m and that is a steal for what he brings. He was arguably our best defensive defenseman who showed a bit of offense and grit. I would take him over Gav based on what our current team lacks.

The idea of passing on Roy at $5.75m and extending Gav at $7-8m is just silly, but it's where we find ourselves today as player salaries are increasing at an alarming rate.

I don't know man, I think Gavi brings way more physicality, offensive upside and "call-me" goal celebration gestures.

 

[jammer06]

Spence will never have the grit or defensive prowess Roy has/had but he has a lot more upside offensively. All-in he is a better replacement Gav who has very little physical component to his game.

This is why giving up all of those 1st and 2nd round draft picks have really hurt the Kings - we have no pipeline by which to backfill for players these days once they price out.


Roy's AAV is $5.75m and that is a steal for what he brings. He was arguably our best defensive defenseman who showed a bit of offense and grit. I would take him over Gav based on what our current team lacks.

The idea of passing on Roy at $5.75m and extending Gav at $7-8m is just silly, but it's where we find ourselves today as player salaries are increasing at an alarming rate.

5.75 but he was never going to supplant Doughty, will probably not play as long as doughty, and the kings need more out of the right side than he was going to bring. So now you're talking about 5.75 for a third pairing rhd and all of a sudden Edmondson for 3 years at 4 looks more attractive.

 

[DryKing]

5.75 but he was never going to supplant Doughty, will probably not play as long as doughty, and the kings need more out of the right side than he was going to bring. So now you're talking about 5.75 for a third pairing rhd and all of a sudden Edmondson for 3 years at 4 looks more attractive.

I don't think supplanting Doughty was ever in the plan - had it been he'd have fetched much more than $5.75m. On most teams he's a 2nd paring level player who could fill in at top pairing when needed (much like Mikey). At the end of the day, the Kings Org felt they had to choose between Roy and Gav and thought Gav brought more to the table (Gav is a very good player). Part of that was due to being in a "win now" mentality.

Edmundson outperformed his contract last season. Hopefully he keeps it up through the duration of the contract. He doesn't have the projected remaining career longevity of Roy, however.

 

[ChiKingFan]

Spence replaced Roy for the most part. Spence had a rough year, IMO, but their overall stats were still very similar. Spence did not eat up the same minutes as Roy though.

Per game, no, but he also played 10 more games, their total minutes for the season were actually pretty close. I'm not sure I'd say that 28 points and a +23 for a guy in his second full season who was a later round pick was exactly a rough year, but YMMV. I'd maybe say he fell a little short of my high expectations, but that's more of a me problem.

 

[symbology]

Per game, no, but he also played 10 more games, their total minutes for the season were actually pretty close. I'm not sure I'd say that 28 points and a +23 for a guy in his second full season who was a later round pick was exactly a rough year, but YMMV. I'd maybe say he fell a little short of my high expectations, but that's more of a me problem.

I say he had a rough year because I noticed that he seemed to have been off his game a bit. He fanned on a lot of passes this past year. Even in the playoffs he was fanning on passes and was getting benched. He just had an off/rough year and seemed to struggle with confidence IMO.

 

[symbology]

I don't think supplanting Doughty was ever in the plan - had it been he'd have fetched much more than $5.75m. On most teams he's a 2nd paring level player who could fill in at top pairing when needed (much like Mikey). At the end of the day, the Kings Org felt they had to choose between Roy and Gav and thought Gav brought more to the table (Gav is a very good player). Part of that was due to being in a "win now" mentality.

Edmundson outperformed his contract last season. Hopefully he keeps it up through the duration of the contract. He doesn't have the projected remaining career longevity of Roy, however.

Yeah, I think so..... and I will add that at the time I think Gav still fit within their preferred D structure (1-3-1). Big defense first players on the left side. Roy/Spence were the extra pieces if they wanted to get Clarke some time.

 

[Statue4Deano]

Saw the thumbnail and it was an instant click.