Marner Watch

Bennett’s not getting $10 million. At least I don’t think he should. He’s having a great playoff run. And he’s showing how valuable he is. But don’t confuse value for cost. His value in the playoffs is immeasurable. But he’s still a 2nd line center whose career highs were 25g & 26a this year. You don’t pay $10 million for that, even with a rising cap & an all time playoffs. I’m sure he’ll get more than what most guys who put up those numbers get. So I think he should get between $7-8 million. It doesn’t make sense to pay any more. Plus he’s almost 29 & won’t likely surpass his scoring totals.
 
DryKing said:
Roy's AAV is $5.75m and that is a steal for what he brings. He was arguably our best defensive defenseman who showed a bit of offense and grit. I would take him over Gav based on what our current team lacks.

The idea of passing on Roy at $5.75m and extending Gav at $7-8m is just silly, but it's where we find ourselves today as player salaries are increasing at an alarming rate.
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There's a lot to consider re: resigning Roy. A lack of offensively gifted LD all while having DD, Spence and Clarke at RD all needing minutes is IMO the main factor (I'm not sure about Roy's ability to play LD on a consistent basis). Maybe Roy wasn't super excited to resign with the Kings and wanted to go to the east coast (he's now very close to home). Maybe Luc/Rob prioritized the flexibility of short term Gavrikov contract because maybe they already knew at that point that Rob was unlikely to be the GM now and were unsure whether Hiller would be a long-term fit. Committing to Roy (at a possibly bigger $/year figure potentially due to his personal preferences of playing on east coast) long-term perhaps seemed too risky (though to be fair committing to Edmundson for 4 years seems a bit wonky in that case, especially since they did not know yet that he'd be a good value for this team).

There are a lot of factors at play when it comes to deciding who to resign or not...

Maybe Gavrikov loves it in LA and is willing to sign for 7 on a long-term contract. Who knows...if we go by logic of cap increase in 3 years, he'd get 7,5 tops while being overpaid for the first two seasons. Maybe he's fine with 7, and at that price point I don't think it's silly at all considering his versatility and the fact that he wasn't a problem in the playoffs.

If Ken&Hiller don't see a dire need for a more offensively capable LD OR a more physical LD then resigning Gavrikov makes sense. Maybe it's not foolish to also think that having Gavrikov around to eventually mentor Kirsanov wouldn't be such a bad idea. Maybe Kuzmenko is willing to resign at a good price if Gavrikov is resigned.
 
Todays dump of irrationality (Again the hockey news is approaching Hockeybuzz territory):

sports.yahoo.com

Could the Red Wings Sign Maple Leafs' Mitch Marner? New Betting Odds Spark Major Buzz

Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner’s potential move to Detroit is gaining attention as latest betting odds reveal chances of a blockbuster signing.
sports.yahoo.com sports.yahoo.com
This leaves some interesting options for the superstar winger with one of the most likely landing spots being with the Detroit Red Wings. The move would suit Marner’s personal life, placing him just a three-and-a-half-hour drive or a quick hour-and-18-minute flight from his hometown of Toronto plus it keeps him on a competitive team as the Red Wings aim to make the playoffs again next season.

Wood was added to the fire when sportsbooks started putting out betting odds for what Marner's next team. The Red Wings find themselves tied for the 11th-best odds at +3500 with the Philadelphia Flyers and the New York Islanders. Detroit has $21.3 million in projected cap space but have to make several signings first before focussing on a big ticket like Marner, who will likely ask for an annual cap hit around $14-15 million.
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Mirtles Mailbag he opens up the feeling that the leafs cannot "run it back":

www.nytimes.com

No, the Maple Leafs should not (and cannot) run it back: Mirtle mailbag

It's time for Toronto to acknowledge that mild success isn't good enough after nearly a decade of trying. It's time for a new look.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

Think about it: If Marner truly believed they were right there, just about to break through, and there was a good chance of winning the Stanley Cup in his hometown with the Leafs, why wouldn’t he have been willing to negotiate throughout the year for an eight-year deal worth massive money? Why did he seem so withdrawn and noncommittal?
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To me this goes beyond negotiating strategies and a players’ camp trying to push for the maximum dollar figure on July 1. It’s about something being fundamentally off, for Marner and for this organization.

The strange thing is the player seemed to recognize it before management did, which puts the Leafs in a real bind. It appears almost certain at this point that they’ll lose one of the best players in the NHL for very little in return, which is why some fans are getting cold feet about breaking up the core. Even if you believe this group needs change, these are hardly ideal circumstances under which to do it.
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So Marner either isn't thinking about cups, or he doesn't think the "core" there can do it. Either way it's more wood for the Marner out the door pile
 
jammer06 said:
Todays dump of irrationality (Again the hockey news is approaching Hockeybuzz territory):
Click to expand...
I love Hockey News’ definition of competitive here:

“…keeps him on a competitive team as the Red Wings aim to make the playoffs again next season.”

It also makes it sound like they made the playoffs this year. I’d almost believe their writers think they did.

In other Marner news, Hoven shared on KOTP that Marner has reportedly been speaking with a current player on the Kings and asking him questions about playing here. Big if true.

I’m also sure a native Toronto boy has guys on all kinds of teams he can reach out to if he wants, and that players in general do this absolutely all the time. It’s a small league, when it comes to how much these guys know each other.
 
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Clif said:
I love Hockey News’ definition of competitive here:

“…keeps him on a competitive team as the Red Wings aim to make the playoffs again next season.”

It also makes it sound like they made the playoffs this year. I’d almost believe their writers think they did.

In other Marner news, Hoven shared on KOTP that Marner has reportedly been speaking with a current player on the Kings and asking him questions about playing here. Big if true.

I’m also sure a native Toronto boy has guys on all kinds of teams he can reach out to if he wants, and that players in general do this absolutely all the time. It’s a small league, when it comes to how much these guys know each other.
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Maybe he spoke with DD about joining him in Toronto. 🤪
 
Bollocks said:
There's a lot to consider re: resigning Roy. A lack of offensively gifted LD all while having DD, Spence and Clarke at RD all needing minutes is IMO the main factor (I'm not sure about Roy's ability to play LD on a consistent basis). Maybe Roy wasn't super excited to resign with the Kings and wanted to go to the east coast (he's now very close to home). Maybe Luc/Rob prioritized the flexibility of short term Gavrikov contract because maybe they already knew at that point that Rob was unlikely to be the GM now and were unsure whether Hiller would be a long-term fit. Committing to Roy (at a possibly bigger $/year figure potentially due to his personal preferences of playing on east coast) long-term perhaps seemed too risky (though to be fair committing to Edmundson for 4 years seems a bit wonky in that case, especially since they did not know yet that he'd be a good value for this team).

There are a lot of factors at play when it comes to deciding who to resign or not...

Maybe Gavrikov loves it in LA and is willing to sign for 7 on a long-term contract. Who knows...if we go by logic of cap increase in 3 years, he'd get 7,5 tops while being overpaid for the first two seasons. Maybe he's fine with 7, and at that price point I don't think it's silly at all considering his versatility and the fact that he wasn't a problem in the playoffs.

If Ken&Hiller don't see a dire need for a more offensively capable LD OR a more physical LD then resigning Gavrikov makes sense. Maybe it's not foolish to also think that having Gavrikov around to eventually mentor Kirsanov wouldn't be such a bad idea. Maybe Kuzmenko is willing to resign at a good price if Gavrikov is resigned.
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Good points.
A couple thoughts on this as I’m just thinking outloud.
The point about three other righty defensemen needing minutes is on the mark.
The Kings had to find out if Spence could be a second-pair guy, and they needed to begin to put Clarke in the NHL.

Also, when the decision on Roy was made we did not know for certain that the cap would be increasing significantly.
For last years roster, had the Kings signed Roy with a cap hit of 5.5, what other moves would not have occurred since the Kings were close to the ceiling?

I liked Roy. I did not think he had a great year in his last season here. He was just OK.

Given the cap space and competition for the minutes you alluded to, I had and have no problem with letting Roy move on.

Re Gavrikov, I think he’s going to be difficult to replace. But it’s not impossible to do so. Even with the cap going up I just don’t see him being a 9M a year player.
That’s a big chunk of the available cap space, almost to the point of making an acquisition of a top tier player difficult.
Gavrikov is solid. But he’s missing components for that level of compensation. I’d keep him for as much as 7.5. Beyond that he’s just too expensive.
 
Clif said:
I love Hockey News’ definition of competitive here:

“…keeps him on a competitive team as the Red Wings aim to make the playoffs again next season.”

It also makes it sound like they made the playoffs this year. I’d almost believe their writers think they did.

In other Marner news, Hoven shared on KOTP that Marner has reportedly been speaking with a current player on the Kings and asking him questions about playing here. Big if true.

I’m also sure a native Toronto boy has guys on all kinds of teams he can reach out to if he wants, and that players in general do this absolutely all the time. It’s a small league, when it comes to how much these guys know each other.
Click to expand...
I saw something about Byfield being back in Toronto this month…
 
DoubleMinor said:
Good points.
A couple thoughts on this as I’m just thinking outloud.
The point about three other righty defensemen needing minutes is on the mark.
The Kings had to find out if Spence could be a second-pair guy, and they needed to begin to put Clarke in the NHL.

Also, when the decision on Roy was made we did not know for certain that the cap would be increasing significantly.
For last years roster, had the Kings signed Roy with a cap hit of 5.5, what other moves would not have occurred since the Kings were close to the ceiling?

I liked Roy. I did not think he had a great year in his last season here. He was just OK.

Given the cap space and competition for the minutes you alluded to, I had and have no problem with letting Roy move on.

Re Gavrikov, I think he’s going to be difficult to replace. But it’s not impossible to do so. Even with the cap going up I just don’t see him being a 9M a year player.
That’s a big chunk of the available cap space, almost to the point of making an acquisition of a top tier player difficult.
Gavrikov is solid. But he’s missing components for that level of compensation. I’d keep him for as much as 7.5. Beyond that he’s just too expensive.
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What about Provorov who will also be in the FA pool? He may cost more but he seems like a solid investment.

Byram, of course, would be the ideal fit. Orlov will also be available.
 
DryKing said:
What about Provorov who will also be in the FA pool? He may cost more but he seems like a solid investment.

Byram, of course, would be the ideal fit. Orlov will also be available.
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Admittedly am not terribly familiar with Provorov. However around the time the Kings traded for Gavy Provorov’s name did come up. The metrics on him at that time were not great. But I have heard his name tossed around.
Byrum would indeed be ideal.
Orlov perhaps?
How about Nate Schmidt? Is he worthwhile at all?
 
DoubleMinor said:
Admittedly am not terribly familiar with Provorov. However around the time the Kings traded for Gavy Provorov’s name did come up. The metrics on him at that time were not great. But I have heard his name tossed around.
Byrum would indeed be ideal.
Orlov perhaps?
How about Nate Schmidt? Is he worthwhile at all?
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From what I have seen, both Provorov and Orlov seem like a bit of an upgrade (at likely a higher cost) and both are better skaters than Gav.

I don't know much about Schmidt but he has playoff experience and is having a good run with the Panthers.

Schmidt


Scouting Report
The veteran defenseman moves the puck well and can join the rush effectively. Is able to play either side of the ice and can contribute on both special teams, meaning he can log a lot of ice time. Is not big by today's NHL standards and can be overwhelmed at times by larger forwards. At times, he can be guilty of paying too much attention to his offense and neglecting his defensive responsibilities.

Long Range Potential: Veteran puck-moving defenseman who can play a lot of minutes


Orlov


Scouting Report
Has the kind of two-way game NHL coaches love. He has the mobility and skills to put up good offensive numbers, while at the same time being an excellent running mate for an offensive partner. Is also enough of a physical force to make opposing forwards uncomfortable. Has to make sure he is not too aggressive because he can take himself out of position.


Long Range Potential: Talented, mobile two-way defenseman.

Provorov


Scouting Report
Has all the tools to be a first-pairing defenseman: he skates well, is mobile and has the all-around game that enables him to play 20-25 minutes per night. Can put up good offensive numbers and has a dangerous shot. Has to improve his play in his own zone to take his game to the next level, and would benefit from playing with a partner who can do some of the dirty work in the defensive zone.


Long Range Potential: Durable, do-it-all defenseman.


Gav


Scouting Report
Is growing into a solid two-way defenseman who can play in all situations and gobble up 20-plus minutes per game. Was an excellent defensive defenseman when he arrived in the NHL from Russia and continues to flesh out his game as he matures. His offensive game is growing, but not at the expense of the defensive skills and effort that got him to the top league.


Long Range Potential: Solid shutdown defenseman
 
IMO, Gavrikov is presently better than both Orlov and Schmidt. Definitely better than Schmidt, who is another FL reclamation project. Orlov is a top 4 guy but went from very good in DC to amazing in Boston to overpaid in Carolina. I think he was leading the league in +/- midway through the season. But he's definitely not the #1 guy in Carolina while Gavrikov was hands down the best defenseman in LA last season. Provorov would be a nice fit to give the Kings some offense from the LD.

Overall, I think it is just a matter of how much forecasted WAR the Kings can get for the salary. Any of the 4 would be a great fit.
 
Orlov is an east coast PP specialist at this point

Provorov was someone that the Kings were only interested in facilitating money on for Gav and Korpi. They clearly have their mind made up already.

Schmidt will be a really interesting case. If nothing else he's a veteran playoff proven Spence. But I think he's going to sign a much bigger payday than anyone here will want to spend. If he's again under 1 million AAV I'll eat a sock (Sans Florida because he just wants to win cups).

In any case this is Marner watch so take that sh*t the the Holland thread.
 
I suppose the Matt Roy talk is off topic on this thread. But I was perfectly fine with letting him go, no matter what the cost. To me it came down to him refusing to move to the left side so they could get Clarke in the lineup. I know it’s not easy but he was the one most suited to move over. At least Gavy made the effort. Even if it didn’t work out, which it did, I’d at least give him credit for trying.
 
For those of us (including myself) unfamiliar with the Mitch Marner situation in Toronto and how the relationship between player and organization & city was soured by a stew of complications including a meddling agent & father, manipulative a-hole coach, another coach who openly didn't even want him as a rookie, an incompetent GM, an expected baby, a carjacking at gunpoint involving his wife, a no-movement clause, and the player's postseason temper tantrums and lackluster performance.

 
Dr. Tran said:
I suppose the Matt Roy talk is off topic on this thread. But I was perfectly fine with letting him go, no matter what the cost. To me it came down to him refusing to move to the left side so they could get Clarke in the lineup. I know it’s not easy but he was the one most suited to move over. At least Gavy made the effort. Even if it didn’t work out, which it did, I’d at least give him credit for trying.
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Curious, I never heard he refused to play the opposite side - is that fact? If so, it changes my outlook a bit as we need players willing to be flexible for the good of the team.
 
Statue4Deano said:
I saw something about Byfield being back in Toronto this month…
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Would be a logical guess as to who he’s talking to. He was also briefly teammates with Trevor Moore, except TO is from here. I don’t think he’s asking a native to the area what the area is like.
Ranma said:
For those of us (including myself) unfamiliar with the Mitch Marner situation in Toronto and how the relationship between player and organization & city was soured by a stew of complications including a meddling agent & father, manipulative a-hole coach, another coach who openly didn't even want him as a rookie, an incompetent GM, an expected baby, a carjacking at gunpoint involving his wife, a no-movement clause, and the player's postseason temper tantrums and lackluster performance.

Click to expand...

That’s about as “I need a new start” as it gets. I’m going to guess he doesn’t want to play for old mean man Quenville either.
 
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