Some Reality Checks

[Pevsfreedom]

"This team has just not shown any consistent desire to be more than they are. At times I’ve wondered whether I care more than this team does."

I have thought this to myself MANY times this season.

If it is just a matter of will with this 40/60% or so effort season then that is very concerning. When I asked for TMac to go I wanted someone NEW to come in and stir things up and I think the greatest benefit was the break itself rather than the coach. I think Hiller is in over his head at this point. As others have mentioned I think coaching plays a large part here, and being tied to the "system".

 

[DoubleMinor]

If it is just a matter of will with this 40/60% or so effort season then that is very concerning. When I asked for TMac to go I wanted someone NEW to come in and stir things up and I think the greatest benefit was the break itself rather than the coach. I think Hiller is in over his head at this point. As others have mentioned I think coaching plays a large part here, and being tied to the "system".

Tough spot for Hiller. Came in with a mandate to turn the slump around (and he was partially successful) but not enough time to install a new system. However, I have zero idea about what he can or would do given a full year.

 

[DoubleMinor]

"This team has just not shown any consistent desire to be more than they are. At times I’ve wondered whether I care more than this team does."

I have thought this to myself MANY times this season.

Wanted to clarify re Doughty…
He’s a supremely confident, ultra competitive player. Not afraid to go after an opponent and get in their face. Loves playing. I have no issue with Drew’s competition level.

I just don’t know that he’s a leader in the room.

As long as Kopi and Dewey are here, it’s their team. These two have to figure out how to address the need for more leadership.

 

[symbology]

So, since the topic is Reality Check, here are some thoughts.

(Been a fan since the pre-Gretzky days. Never played hockey but did play a different sport through college. I think I have a decent understanding of hockey.)

This team has enough talent. I honestly don’t know about the coaching part. At times this team plays well and when they do so the “system” appears to work well enough. So, I’m uncertain whether it’s the coaching or the system that’s the impediment.

What I have seen since the 20-game mark is a team that is probably more frustrating and maddening than any I can recall.

The slump in December-January was terrible. But what followed in some ways was more difficult to watch. There were far too many games where the Kings just did not appear to have any motivation or competitive spirit.

One thing that I admired about Lombardi was his understanding that teams need leadership inside the room. He had Brown, but also brought in Greene, Stoll, Williams & Richard’s. DL often spoke about culture, and brought in the people who could create it. Additionally, that leadership core was surrounded by guys like Mitchell, Scuderi, Carter, etc who were gamers. And Quick was just a guy who wanted nothing but to win every night.

Watching this team this year showed a substantial void.
I’m not in the room nor am I privy to what goes on. Like the rest of us, we grasp at clues and make our judgements about the team.

Looking at this season I cannot imagine the old leadership group would tolerate the inconsistency.

I am big fans of both Kopi and Doughty. They are going to be in the rafters. But I don’t see the leadership that is necessary.

In 2012 the Kings miraculously won a Cup. They were a team that got hot at the right time. If no Cups followed this one would have been widely viewed as a fluke. The 2014 Cup gave the Kings legitimacy.

I have wondered if somehow those Cups put out the fire for Kopi & Drew, that the two Cups were enough for their legacies.
Yeah, we have heard the comments, especially from DD that he wants to win, etc and I’m sure that’s true on some level.
But, all that was 10 years ago.

This team has just not shown any consistent desire to be more than they are. At times I’ve wondered whether I care more than this team does.

The only guys I see as actual leaders (from a distance of course) are guys like Danault & at times Kempe. We have heard about Mikey and his leadership qualities. I think Arvy is partially there, when on the ice.
Aside from these guys, who is there?

Leadership is hard to judge and it comes in different forms. Kopi appears to be a quiet leader. Drew is probably more overt but he’s such a different guy I just don’t know how much it reasonates. He admittedly states that he talks so much he doesn’t know if anyone listens or tunes him out.
I’m not knocking these guys. Everyone has to be real, be themselves.

But, it’s my belief that the main problem with this team is culture and leadership.
I don’t know if Blake feels this isn’t as important as DL did, or if DL just had a knack for seeing it. But, it’s very apparent that this team doesn’t have it and needs to address it.

As I said at the beginning, this team does have talent. Kopi, Drew, Kempe, Danault, Moore, Fiala, Arvy, QB, Mikey, Roy, Gavy…that’s a pretty good talent level.

Maybe I’m missing things but I don’t know that it’s coaching. Yep, the PP should be considerably better. But how much of it is coaching and how much is players being stubborn. I cannot imagine Hiller is saying “Yeah, no one should ever move. No one should ever shoot. We should always just pass back and forth to Kopi on the half wall and Dewy up top.”

This team needs to fill some holes: goalie, bigger guys at both ends, but the core isn’t bad at all.

Any team that played so many games this year without any real competitive desire has off-ice issues.
That’s the reality I see.

I think this is a very good post. Some people consider Kopi a great leader. I will agrue that, though I will concede that he is a leader in his own way. I think Kopi and Drew want to win another cup, very much so.

Here is an example.

This team knows they need to shoot the puck more on the PP. They know that they need to move around more when on the PP. However, the fail to do so. When that happens, you need someone to just say screw it. Someone that is going to go out of his way to get the darn puck on net, or move around the zone and force others to do the same. You know, actually "SHOW" the other players what needs to be done. Not just talke about it when they get back to the bench. This team knows what to do, are not doing it and they do not have the type of player willing to kickstart things. They all seem to wait for the other guy to do something.

To many passengers.

When Richards was brought in (I think it was around this time) there were many arguments on this board about who the drivers were, and who the passengers were. Many felt Richards was brought in to be one of the missing "drivers" and that Kopi was not one of them.

Do not take this as I hate Kopi, or think he sucks. Far from it. The reality is, it is a personality thing.

 

[DoubleMinor]

I think this is a very good post. Some people consider Kopi a great leader. I will agrue that, though I will concede that he is a leader in his own way. I think Kopi and Drew want to win another cup, very much so.

Here is an example.

This team knows they need to shoot the puck more on the PP. They know that they need to move around more when on the PP. However, the fail to do so. When that happens, you need someone to just say screw it. Someone that is going to go out of his way to get the darn puck on net, or move around the zone and force others to do the same. You know, actually "SHOW" the other players what needs to be done. Not just talke about it when they get back to the bench. This team knows what to do, are not doing it and they do not have the type of player willing to kickstart things. They all seem to wait for the other guy to do something.

To many passengers.

When Richards was brought in (I think it was around this time) there were many arguments on this board about who the drivers were, and who the passengers were. Many felt Richards was brought in to be one of the missing "drivers" and that Kopi was not one of them.

Do not take this as I hate Kopi, or think he sucks. Far from it. The reality is, it is a personality thing.

That’s exactly right. I don’t necessarily think Kopi & Drew do not care. It’s indeed a personality thing. Drivers and passengers is the right distinction. We need more drivers desperately.

 

[DryKing]

Maybe I’m missing things but I don’t know that it’s coaching. Yep, the PP should be considerably better. But how much of it is coaching and how much is players being stubborn. I cannot imagine Hiller is saying “Yeah, no one should ever move. No one should ever shoot. We should always just pass back and forth to Kopi on the half wall and Dewy up top.”

I wouldn't say the cause is coaching alone, but using this example: if you have a PP that continues to struggle against Edmonton to generate shots and has a dismal conversion rate - at what point do you make an adjustment to PP1 and PP2 personnel? Maybe the coaching staff things the current setup has the best chance to score, but putting in the same players who continue to fail to convert on the PP over and over again really equates to the definition of insanity, does it not? That, to me, is an example of poor coaching.

Totally agree with you when it comes to leadership and needing more size. Good post.

 

[PTDP]

Just my opinion....
Simplify.....Kings need to make trades.
Younger and tougher.

 

[DryKing]

Wanted to clarify re Doughty…
He’s a supremely confident, ultra competitive player. Not afraid to go after an opponent and get in their face. Loves playing. I have no issue with Drew’s competition level.

I just don’t know that he’s a leader in the room.

As long as Kopi and Dewey are here, it’s their team. These two have to figure out how to address the need for more leadership.

That last sentence is the crux of the issue. I could see Kopitar stepping aside if/when the time comes for a new leader to emerge (which is likely now) but I don't think Doughty has the character to do so. I get that he is passionate and, let's be honest, one of our best players who currently anchors the defense but his game itself is very selfish. He consistently over-extends shifts, is caught out of position in the offensive zone, forces shots on the PP that have a high occurrence of getting blocked and losing the zone and (in my opinion) always wants to play the hero role rather than be a role player. I see him as being a great guy, but not a leader nor was he a leader when the Kings won their Cups.

What we need are leaders who are willing to put their ego aside for the betterment of the team, do the dirty jobs when needed and allow others to flourish should they be in a better position to do so. That is what made Brown so great, and what we are lacking today.

I do think Kopitar is a good leader, but our team on ice leadership today is too shallow (as others have mentioned). Funny enough, players like JAD which we brought in largely due to their leadership abilities we have parted ways with.

 

[symbology]

is this true though? Like, what is it about the system that is limiting them, and how? They were near the top of the league in goals per game for the first 20-ish games? They still sit middle of the pack, next to teams like WIN and Vegas in goals per game. They have one of the stingiest defenses.

The issue, as i see it, isnt the system at all, but the team's consistency. We've seen consistency issues the past three seasons, albeit in smaller stretches than the crazy streaks we saw this season. Quick decision making, quick passing, and being assertive are the elements i think separating this team from being really good right now. Some nights they have that, and they perform well. Some nights they seem to be incapable of connecting on simple passes. And i have my theories on why that is (hiller's blender lines i think are way over used)

Last night was not a system issue limiting their scoring. They simply played bad most of the night, and the oilers were the faster and hungrier team. And you have to credit the oilers for being an offensive juggernaut. How many teams can boast the sheer volume of weapons they have? Not to mention having arguably the best player in the game right now, along with another top 5 forward.

I would suggest that the real issue with their 1-3-1, against a team like edmonton, is that they do give McD the opportunity to get the puck low in the oilers zone and allow him to generate a full head of steam coming through the neutral zone. That's a structural limitation that they have to address specifically against THIS oilers team, with a guy who is like the fastest skater in the league, as well as being so good that he can literally skate through 5 guys at any given moment.

If they want to win this series, they need to play faster and cleaner than they have in gm's 1 and 3, and they need to stay out of the box. And it's too late now to fix the PP, but im sure that will be a talking point when the season ends, whether they win this series or not, because that has literally been one of tehir biggest momentum killers all season. But this is an oilers team that is a favorite to win the cup. It's not an easy matchup.

Listen to these guys.

 

[Madness20721]

Has Blake been fired yet?

 

[PTDP]

Just my opinion....
Simplify.....Kings need to make trades.
Younger and tougher.

I know this goes against my post......and it is a pipe dream
But Stamkos maybe available as well as Draisiatl and maybe others.

 

[Helvetica]

Listen to these guys.

So, there's a couple different things happening here and i want to clear up my position. My original point was that the 1-3-1 isn't a massive limitation on their chances to score. I will concede that their might be another system that could be more aggressive and allow them to score more goals, but there is a balance to be had there. But again, they are not a bottom of the league team in scoring or scoring chances. All of their advanced stats related to scoring are good, with xGF% 4th best in the league at 5v5. They are not a team short of scoring opportunity. This is the same system that Juice scored 40 goals. Fiala nearly scored 30. Moore scored 30. Lots of guy sat that 20 mark.

So, i hear what you're saying, and i hear what these two guys are saying, and i agree that a 1-2-2 might be more fun. They might get some more goals. But i disagree that the 1-3-1 is some sort of massive boat anchor dragging their ability to score down into the gutter, because the stats don't bear that out. And again, im not saying they NEED to stick to the 1-3-1. I'm not married to it. If they can have more success as a team with the 1-2-2 or something else, please do it. My point, really, was that i see a lot of people blindly blame the 1-3-1 for them losing, and i do not believe that's the case. This is a team that is quite strong in 5v5 play. They essentially won the series play at 5v5, and lost the series on special teams. Against one of the highest scoring teams in the league. And none of that has anything to do with what forechecking system they run. That's why i question the assertion that the 1-3-1 is holding them back.

 

[symbology]

So, there's a couple different things happening here and i want to clear up my position. My original point was that the 1-3-1 isn't a massive limitation on their chances to score. I will concede that their might be another system that could be more aggressive and allow them to score more goals, but there is a balance to be had there. But again, they are not a bottom of the league team in scoring or scoring chances. All of their advanced stats related to scoring are good, with xGF% 4th best in the league at 5v5. They are not a team short of scoring opportunity. This is the same system that Juice scored 40 goals. Fiala nearly scored 30. Moore scored 30. Lots of guy sat that 20 mark.

So, i hear what you're saying, and i hear what these two guys are saying, and i agree that a 1-2-2 might be more fun. They might get some more goals. But i disagree that the 1-3-1 is some sort of massive boat anchor dragging their ability to score down into the gutter, because the stats don't bear that out. And again, im not saying they NEED to stick to the 1-3-1. I'm not married to it. If they can have more success as a team with the 1-2-2 or something else, please do it. My point, really, was that i see a lot of people blindly blame the 1-3-1 for them losing, and i do not believe that's the case. This is a team that is quite strong in 5v5 play. They essentially won the series play at 5v5, and lost the series on special teams. Against one of the highest scoring teams in the league. And none of that has anything to do with what forechecking system they run. That's why i question the assertion that the 1-3-1 is holding them back.

I have said.... wait.. first... I never thought we were that far apart.

Anyway, the 1-3-1 is more passive and the players on the back end (on the left side were chosen (not Mikey) to be a good fit for the 1-3-1. That is great when the 1-3-1 is working, but not so great when it is not. Spence is probably the most mobile D on the team with Doughty being a close second. After that there is not much mobility. Again, a great fit for the 1-3-1, but not a great fit for when teams are trying to generate offense when they are trailing in games. I tried to bring up the scheme and the players chosen to execute it, as what was holding the team back offensively. It really is a combination of the two on this team.

As for stat sites, I think stats can be misleading. Take game 4 where some sites had the Kings with a huge lead in "High Danger Chances", and other sites showing the Oilers with more "Quality Scoring Chances" around the net (though the numbers were close). The eye test during that game did not leave me thinking that the Kings had more scoring chances than the Oilers. Stats are great and helpful blah blah blah. I just think that the criteria to get a "hit" for certain stats does not align with what actually occurred on the ice. The stat claims one thing, but what happened on the ice was not a real match.

If you do not know, I was dreaming that Blake would find a way to turn one of the less mobile D into a sold puck moving LHD.

As for the 1-3-1 being boring to play against, it can be boring to play as well. After watching some of these interviews, I wonder if that is at least a partial cause for the Kings inconsistency at times. One game, or period they would just lack intensity and then the execution would suffer. You hear Fox, or other broadcasters mention going into the start of a game and taking a hit, or giving a hit to get you energized and "into the game". Kind of why I mention this. Also, when I played I used to love to get in on the forecheck, when I was not playing D. It got the blood flowing and made the game more fun at times.

 

[Helvetica]

I have said.... wait.. first... I never thought we were that far apart.

yeah, i wouldnt say we were way apart, i just wanted to clarify because the discussion has gone all over the place with everyone chiming in. And while i agree stats can be varied from site to site, i think the general take away for me is that they are anywhere from middle of the pack, to top 5 in various offensive stats. And mainly, ive seen so many people sort of casually blame the 1-3-1 anytime the team has a game where they fail to score more than a goal or two.

We know that Hiller tried to change the system when he took over, likely to 1-2-2, but the team struggled supposedly, so they defaulted back to what they knew. But they did reintroduce that 1-2-2 late in the series again. We know too that hiller was giving more leash to the defensemen to pinch and join the rush. All of this suggests a team looking to generate more offense, and i don't want to discount that.

 

[Duckh8tr]

Love the Kings and always will. Problems is they are small and soft. Have been since McDermid left. They can play a so called "physical" game but never for two games yet alone for a seven series. Blake and Luc love small non physical player AKA Ice Capades. Fire both of them. So called "experts" say the game has changed but it will and is a physical game. Love Kempe and Lizotte play but give me a break. Kings are soy soft. Hate the Ducks, but at least they play with some balls. Lets make moves to play like the 2012 2014 Kings with some testosterone. Will be an interesting off season. Lets Go Reign.

 

[DryKing]

Love the Kings and always will. Problems is they are small and soft. Have been since McDermid left. They can play a so called "physical" game but never for two games yet alone for a seven series. Blake and Luc love small non physical player AKA Ice Capades. Fire both of them. So called "experts" say the game has changed but it will and is a physical game. Love Kempe and Lizotte play but give me a break. Kings are soy soft. Hate the Ducks, but at least they play with some balls. Lets make moves to play like the 2012 2014 Kings with some testosterone. Will be an interesting off season. Lets Go Reign.

Agreed, and they took the losing end of the majority of hits they did get during the Edmonton series. Just too many small ando/or non-physical players currently. Even Gavrikov, who has good size, clearly looked like it was unnatural for him to check an opposing player (though to his credit he tried).

 

[rinkrat]

The 1-3-1 is a joke. It's made for teams that are defense oriented. We have 4 lines stacked with scorers so why force them to stifle their game? Play a more up-tempo style to reflect the talent and give them the opportunity to show their skills. The Trap is for teams who have less skill. Also, EVERY team has a remedy for the 1-3-1 and know exactly how to combat it. They are not gonne come in umprepared and know what the Kings are going to throw at them. Time to mix it up. Look at the Oilers, they are all pressure and then change up the attack as you combat one option.

And let's let Doughty have a chance at Captain.

 

[Helvetica]

The 1-3-1 is a joke. It's made for teams that are defense oriented. We have 4 lines stacked with scorers so why force them to stifle their game? Play a more up-tempo style to reflect the talent and give them the opportunity to show their skills. The Trap is for teams who have less skill. Also, EVERY team has a remedy for the 1-3-1 and know exactly how to combat it. They are not gonne come in umprepared and know what the Kings are going to throw at them. Time to mix it up. Look at the Oilers, they are all pressure and then change up the attack as you combat one option.

And let's let Doughty have a chance at Captain.

The trap has nothing to do with whether the team is skilled or not, it's about stopping the other team's chances. Plenty of skilled teams have run it, and run it successfully. Tampa bay used it in the 2010's. I think they were still using it in 2020. Rangers use it right now.

Like, this is exactly what im talking about. Blindly blaming the 1-3-1 for a team's inability to win, while suggesting it's stifling their game. As if the other defensive structures don't have their own pros and cons. Every team has a remedy for every structure, there is no unbeatable structure. It comes down to execution. Did the leafs lose because they run the 1-3-1? No. Do they have a ton of skill and run a different system? Yes. Did Vegas lose because it ran the 1-3-1? no. Do they have a ton of skill and run a different structure? yes. Did the Rangers lose their first round matchup because they're running a 1-3-1? No... it's about which team is better, and which team executes better.

Guess which team played more effectively at 5v5 in the kings oilers series? Guess which team played more effectively on special teams? Guess which team won...

 

[DryKing]

The trap has nothing to do with whether the team is skilled or not, it's about stopping the other team's chances. Plenty of skilled teams have run it, and run it successfully. Tampa bay used it in the 2010's. I think they were still using it in 2020. Rangers use it right now.

Like, this is exactly what im talking about. Blindly blaming the 1-3-1 for a team's inability to win, while suggesting it's stifling their game. As if the other defensive structures don't have their own pros and cons. Every team has a remedy for every structure, there is no unbeatable structure. It comes down to execution. Did the leafs lose because they run the 1-3-1? No. Do they have a ton of skill and run a different system? Yes. Did Vegas lose because it ran the 1-3-1? no. Do they have a ton of skill and run a different structure? yes. Did the Rangers lose their first round matchup because they're running a 1-3-1? No... it's about which team is better, and which team executes better.

Guess which team played more effectively at 5v5 in the kings oilers series? Guess which team played more effectively on special teams? Guess which team won...

In my opinion the 1-3-1 is effective if the team utilizing it has two things: 1) high level of discipline 2) are able to out-skate, or at least match, their opponents. Makes sense for the Kings to utilize the 1-3-1 considering Blake has focused heavily on making the team a fast skating / speed team. Problem, however, is that Edmonton has some skaters who are able to blow through it and once you are trailing a team on the scoreboard the 1-3-1 becomes very hard to stick with.

To your point, it does not restrict talent but does restrict creativity in the favor of discipline. Additionally the Kings have a bit of a mixed bag when it comes down to maintaining discipline. With the right team, though, the 1-3-1 is incredibly effective.

 

[symbology]

I just found this guy today and have started to follow him. Going to read through his posts on the series, but here are the series numbers that he gets from "Sportlogiq" ? Never heard of that. I went to the site, and there is no way to register, so maybe you need to be some NHL staff/insider to get access? I am going to go through and see if he posted stats for each game. Interesting that he says he, or this site is now 5-0 had at projecting the winners. I wonder if it is 5-0 including the number of games. That would be crazy.