Elliotte Friedman: Chychrun May Be Available

[jt]

Too much. Turcotte/Clarke/2022 1st/2023 2nd at most. That's 3 #1s !

It is but if you could go back in time, wouldn't you trade Pearson, Forbort, Schenn, and Teubert (four 1st rounders) for a guy like Chychrun?

I'm amazed sometimes at how fans overvalue their own prospects.

 

[DryKing]

There is something fundamentally wrong with Chychrun this season. I get the Coyotes are a dismal team but posting a +/- -29 in 26 games so far this season is just plain bonkers. If we compare him to Chiarot, for instance, both have played comparable minutes on equally bad teams. Ben is a -11 to Chychrun's -29 while posting just as many points. I just don't see Chychrun as a top defensemen in the league at the current moment.

Could just be a bad season on a bad team, but to give up so much for a player who leads the league with the worst +/- (almost double the two players tied for 2nd) is a bit loony.

 

[VCRW]

It is but if you could go back in time, wouldn't you trade Pearson, Forbort, Schenn, and Teubert (four 1st rounders) for a guy like Chychrun?

I'm amazed sometimes at how fans overvalue their own prospects.

Chychrun’s poor defensive numbers this year have made him more affordable.

 

[jt]

There is something fundamentally wrong with Chychrun this season. I get the Coyotes are a dismal team but posting a +/- -29 in 26 games so far this season is just plain bonkers. If we compare him to Chiarot, for instance, both have played comparable minutes on equally bad teams. Ben is a -11 to Chychrun's -29 while posting just as many points. I just don't see Chychrun as a top defensemen in the league at the current moment.

Could just be a bad season on a bad team, but to give up so much for a player who leads the league with the worst +/- (almost double the two players tied for 2nd) is a bit loony.

I'm not trying to pick a fight, but you know that Doughty was -34 in 18-19, right? Was there something fundamentally wrong with him? Would you have trade him for what some are throwing around?

 

[jt]

Chychrun’s poor defensive numbers this year have made him more affordable.

Not if Bill Armstrong won't trade him for less.......

 

[Helvetica]

I disagree about Eichel. I think there was (and still is) bonafide risk that he will never play high end hockey again or that one hit ends his career (that's a bigger risk than any other player's career ending from one hit).

Sure, he's not proven but that's when you jump at a guy you believe can be a legit top D. If you wait until he's proven you have to pay Karlsson prices.

Same question to you...

If another GM is willing to pay that price, you'd pass and try to find a "dynamic LD" somewhere else? Or would you just pass on trading for one and hope one of the young D develops into that? If they don't start trading the kids, they'll start losing them on waivers.

As for Clarke, he was left of the WJC for a reason. Is that the guy to hold up a trade for a 23 yr old cost-controlled D who scored 12 goals in 63 and 18 goals in 56 games? (BTW, I think that shows he is proven, but that's another discussion)?

Not one of Turcotte, Kupari, Clarke or the 2022 1st is likely to be a top-end talent.

Im going to ramble here because there's several topics to touch on...

- To start, we have an ungodly amount of forward prospects, and i think that's where we should be looking to add from for trades. Clarke is our best high end D prospect, and while he was left off the WJC list, it was also considered to be one of the biggest snubs of all time. So, frankly, im not sure what to think about it. I've seen people say everything from, "clarke had a real shot to make the team out of camp before he got sick" (yeah right), to now, "he was left off the WJC for a reason". So, is he a high end prospect capable of big things, or just another 1-dimensional guy that won't amount to much in the NHL?

- "If" another GM is willing to pay that price, i'd certainly have to consider. But how many teams can, and are willing, to pay that price? How many teams even have the resources to have a serious discussion?

- I agree, we do need to start trading some of these kids or lose them to waivers. Ive been singing that tune since the start of the season. Clarke is not really one of those guys that needs to be traded. It's mostly the forward group that has way too many prospects. And that's one of my biggest hangups here. For the sake of argument, let's say the Kings didnt have Byfield or Clarke. Is Turcotte, 2022 1st, and a guy like Kupari enough to get the conversation going? Because I think it is. Add in another prospect or what have you and that's a solid package. That's an Eichel type package. That's a mid 1st in a good draft (higher than Vegas' pick). 2 guys that could start in AZ RIGHT NOW, both with top 6 potential. Plus whatever gets added.

- Finally, the report here, and i havent seen anything contrary, is that AZ is gauging interest. There's a reason they are gauging interest. Either Chychrun wants out, or they need to shed basically all salary. I can't think of any other reasons why they'd be shopping him. Teams don't normally just up and trade their #1 D man on a good contract while he's young. So while certainly he's worth a good amount, there's also some leverage lost there. Additionally, i'd want a solid rundown of who els emight be available during thsi coming offseason, because id want to compare and make a better informed decision there as well. But at the end of the day, i think Turcotte, 2022 1st, Kupari + is a very solid offer.

 

[DryKing]

I'm not trying to pick a fight, but you know that Doughty was -34 in 18-19, right? Was there something fundamentally wrong with him? Would you have trade him for what some are throwing around?

Yeah, fair point but Doughty was not a true outlier in the league in terms of +/- that season (others were around his mark) and that was stretched out of 82 games (vs -29 spread over 26 games). He did demonstrate a flaw that season in trying to do too much which hurt his defensive game. It also didn't help that more than half of his points (24) came on the PP.

Chychrun on the other has has a whopping 1 PP point and projects to be a -77 at the end of the season (-91 if he played all 82 games). I really don't see he and 2018/19 Doughty in the same realm.

 

[Busted Chops]

I disagree about Eichel. I think there was (and still is) bonafide risk that he will never play high end hockey again or that one hit ends his career (that's a bigger risk than any other player's career ending from one hit).

Sure, he's not proven but that's when you jump at a guy you believe can be a legit top D. If you wait until he's proven you have to pay Karlsson prices.

Same question to you...

If another GM is willing to pay that price, you'd pass and try to find a "dynamic LD" somewhere else? Or would you just pass on trading for one and hope one of the young D develops into that? If they don't start trading the kids, they'll start losing them on waivers.

As for Clarke, he was left of the WJC for a reason. Is that the guy to hold up a trade for a 23 yr old cost-controlled D who scored 12 goals in 63 and 18 goals in 56 games? (BTW, I think that shows he is proven, but that's another discussion)?

Not one of Turcotte, Kupari, Clarke or the 2022 1st is likely to be a top-end talent.

Yikes! This is what undervaluing players looks like.

To answer the question you asked twice, yes I would pass and let the the other GM bask in the glory, or not.

And if trades need to made to avoid losing players like JAD, Thomas, etc. to waivers, then trades can still be made apart from any Chychrun trade.

You seem to have tunnel vision here.

 

[jt]

Im going to ramble here because there's several topics to touch on...

- To start, we have an ungodly amount of forward prospects, and i think that's where we should be looking to add from for trades. Clarke is our best high end D prospect, and while he was left off the WJC list, it was also considered to be one of the biggest snubs of all time. So, frankly, im not sure what to think about it. I've seen people say everything from, "clarke had a real shot to make the team out of camp before he got sick" (yeah right), to now, "he was left off the WJC for a reason". So, is he a high end prospect capable of big things, or just another 1-dimensional guy that won't amount to much in the NHL?

First off, great post...secondly...

I agree about Clarke. But if AZ wants a D with potential to replace Chychrun, you've got to give to get. Maybe they take someone who's a couple steps down like Bjornfot. But it's hard to imagine them trading Chychrun for all forwards.

- "If" another GM is willing to pay that price, i'd certainly have to consider. But how many teams can, and are willing, to pay that price? How many teams even have the resources to have a serious discussion?

One is the Rangers and talk is they're willing to include Kakko. If that's true, you've gotta decide whether to beat that offer or just keep spinning wheels not doing anything...and eventually start losing the kids for nothing. At some point other teams start salivating at who the Kings will lose and won't trade fair market value for the kids because they know they'll be available on waivers...the Kings just lose all their leverage.

- I agree, we do need to start trading some of these kids or lose them to waivers. Ive been singing that tune since the start of the season. Clarke is not really one of those guys that needs to be traded. It's mostly the forward group that has way too many prospects. And that's one of my biggest hangups here. For the sake of argument, let's say the Kings didnt have Byfield or Clarke. Is Turcotte, 2022 1st, and a guy like Kupari enough to get the conversation going? Because I think it is. Add in another prospect or what have you and that's a solid package. That's an Eichel type package. That's a mid 1st in a good draft (higher than Vegas' pick). 2 guys that could start in AZ RIGHT NOW, both with top 6 potential. Plus whatever gets added.

Clarke doesn't need to be traded in terms of losing him on waivers but they don't have many good trade chips to get a D if the trading partner requires a (potentially) high-end D back. Clarke is unproven and the AHL (and construction sites) is littered with guys who at one time had high-end potential and failed. The Kings need to figure out what they do have so they can trade for what they don't have. Maybe they can make a Johansen (forward) for Jones (high-end D) trade, but those are hard.

- Finally, the report here, and i havent seen anything contrary, is that AZ is gauging interest. There's a reason they are gauging interest. Either Chychrun wants out, or they need to shed basically all salary. I can't think of any other reasons why they'd be shopping him. Teams don't normally just up and trade their #1 D man on a good contract while he's young. So while certainly he's worth a good amount, there's also some leverage lost there. Additionally, i'd want a solid rundown of who els emight be available during thsi coming offseason, because id want to compare and make a better informed decision there as well. But at the end of the day, i think Turcotte, 2022 1st, Kupari + is a very solid offer.

That's all true, but if you're the Coyotes do you make that deal or one with Kakko as the centerpiece?

 

[jt]

Yeah, fair point but Doughty was not a true outlier in the league in terms of +/- that season (others were around his mark) and that was stretched out of 82 games (vs -29 spread over 26 games). He did demonstrate a flaw that season in trying to do too much which hurt his defensive game. It also didn't help that more than half of his points (24) came on the PP.

Chychrun on the other has has a whopping 1 PP point and projects to be a -77 at the end of the season (-91 if he played all 82 games). I really don't see he and 2018/19 Doughty in the same realm.

That's all true and if Chychrun had not issues he wouldn't be on that block at all. The question for Blake (and us couch potatoes) is whether to trade what it takes to get him, not what we believe his trade value SHOULD be. Trading for young dynamic cost-controlled D is expensive and some GM will pay it. If the Kings don't, what DO they do? Nothing?

 

[jt]

Yikes! This is what undervaluing players looks like.

To answer the question you asked twice, yes I would pass and let the the other GM bask in the glory, or not.

And if trades need to made to avoid losing players like JAD, Thomas, etc. to waivers, then trades can still be made apart from any Chychrun trade.

You seem to have tunnel vision here.

I do have tunnel vision because this is a tunnel question: trade for Chychrun and the cost it takes or don't. And if you don't, what DO you do to solve the problem with offense from D? It's easy for fans to say "well just trade less for Chychrun" or "well just trade for another dynamic young D." But HOW? WHO is that? Or just do nothing, hope that a current young Kings D fills that, and start losing guys like they lost Clague, or trade them for picks like the Rangers did with Andersson (7th overall pick for a 2nd rounder)? That sounds like terrible asset management to me.

That's why I posted in this thread in the first place...so yeah, that's the question. I appreciate you playing the game because that's what it all comes down to: what do us armchair GMs do when faced with the decision?

 

[santiclaws]

That's all true, but if you're the Coyotes do you make that deal or one with Kakko as the centerpiece?

I think a fair bit of shine is off Kakko (which is why the Rangers would trade him); yes, you would have to add to have AZ take a player drafted three spots down from Kakko, but I think the Kings have the assets to do so. Again, if I'm faced with the choice of adding Clarke or not getting the deal done, I add Clarke. But given the fact that the Kings are not exactly flush with high-end defensive prospects, I'd do everything in my power to hold on to him.

 

[Helvetica]

if I'm faced with the choice of adding Clarke or not getting the deal done, I add Clarke. But given the fact that the Kings are not exactly flush with high-end defensive prospects, I'd do everything in my power to hold on to him.

I think im in agreement with this, except that im not sure im on board with Clarke AND Turcotte. One of those guys is the center piece. You add a 1st rnd pick, and you add somebody like Kupari or Bjornfot from the Kings current roster. After that, it's an AHL prospect like Madden or something along those lines. I also agree that Kakko has lost some value. So if Kakko is the centerpiece, im not sure that's significantly better than a guy like Turcotte.

Is Kakko + 1st + ? + ? > Turcotte + 1st + Kupari/Bjornfot + ?

 

[santiclaws]

I think im in agreement with this, except that im not sure im on board with Clarke AND Turcotte. One of those guys is the center piece. You add a 1st rnd pick, and you add somebody like Kupari or Bjornfot from the Kings current roster. After that, it's an AHL prospect like Madden or something along those lines. I also agree that Kakko has lost some value. So if Kakko is the centerpiece, im not sure that's significantly better than a guy like Turcotte.

Is Kakko + 1st + ? + ? > Turcotte + 1st + Kupari/Bjornfot + ?

Well, I think it would not take both, but I'm just thinking from the perspective of "would I do it if that's what it took"? Let's say that if you don't give both Clarke and Turcotte, you don't get Chychrun because AZ either says "no trade" or trades him elsewhere because they like someone else's offer better. I'd still do it. I wouldn't like it, but I'd do it.

 

[Helvetica]

Well, I think it would not take both, but I'm just thinking from the perspective of "would I do it if that's what it took"? Let's say that if you don't give both Clarke and Turcotte, you don't get Chychrun because AZ either says "no trade" or trades him elsewhere because they like someone else's offer better. I'd still do it. I wouldn't like it, but I'd do it.

Clarke + Turcotte + 1st feels like too much to me.

 

[jt]

Thanks again to those playing this game. It's really interesting for me to read thoughtful analysis of trade scenarios and our own prospects.

I'm on board with santiclaws if it's an "if that's what it takes."

And I respect people who disagree, I just want to hear what they WOULD do. Nothing? Get someone else? Who? For what?

Also, what comparable trades have there been? A 23ish D with 2 seasons under his belt like Chychrun has?

 

[jt]

For the sake of argument, let's say the Kings didnt have Byfield or Clarke. Is Turcotte, 2022 1st, and a guy like Kupari enough to get the conversation going? Because I think it is. Add in another prospect or what have you and that's a solid package. That's an Eichel type package. That's a mid 1st in a good draft (higher than Vegas' pick). 2 guys that could start in AZ RIGHT NOW, both with top 6 potential. Plus whatever gets added.

I forgot to respond to this part specifically.

I don't know Krebs in depth but I think he's a significantly better prospect than Turcotte. Also, Tuch's value is far more than Kupari and also more than Turcotte IMO.

So if it's really going to take an Eichel level package, I don't think Turcotte + Kupari + a 1st is anywhere close to Krebs + Tuch + a 1st (even with VGK getting a 3rd back).

 

[jt]

Clarke + Turcotte + 1st feels like too much to me.

I know this can go off the rails, but if not that then what? Sit tight and wait to see if prospects develop? I love this D in so many ways but it doesn't have enough offense to win IMO. Maybe it doesn't need Chychrun, but if not him...who?

 

[Helvetica]

I know this can go off the rails, but if not that then what? Sit tight and wait to see if prospects develop? I love this D in so many ways but it doesn't have enough offense to win IMO. Maybe it doesn't need Chychrun, but if not him...who?

yeah definitely that's the question. If not Chych, then what? And frankly, I dont know. I've seen some random posts about Sergachev being available maybe, simply because TB will not have the space to keep him. That seems like a pretty long shot tbh, but i haven't been paying enough attention to other teams to know who might, or is likely to be available. The Kings forwards have done a decent job this season of scoring, and it's painfully obvious just how lackluster our D has been when it comes to putting pucks in nets. So I do agree, Kings need to address this issue. And maybe Blake decides to bite the bullet and make the trade, and its costs us Clarke+Turcotte+1st. But now we're just playing a how far will you go type game? So where does that stop? I think it's fair to be looking at what other teams can offer, and i think Turcotte+1st+Kupari (you say his value isnt high, so swap him with Anderson or Bjornfot). To me, the question isnt just, "how does it compare to Eichel trade", but also, "how does it compare to what other teams are offering". Because this offer seems in line, at least, with what a Kakko trade would look like.

This feels like star player type ask, and not just can play top line type ask. To me, turcotte and clarke, and a 1st + seems to be extremely steep. Im not sure i do that. But I agree that Chych addresses a glaring need on this team, and isnt likely to have an equivalent available in the near future. So, in short: Price seems too high to me, but id also understand if Blake made that trade. It's the type of trade you'd have to be absolutely sure about though. Heads would roll if he didnt meet very high expectations.

 

[DryKing]

That's all true and if Chychrun had not issues he wouldn't be on that block at all. The question for Blake (and us couch potatoes) is whether to trade what it takes to get him, not what we believe his trade value SHOULD be. Trading for young dynamic cost-controlled D is expensive and some GM will pay it. If the Kings don't, what DO they do? Nothing?

I think AZ is most interested in players they can lock up cheaply and have control over their contracts. That leads me to believe prospects ready, or near ready, to make the jump to the NHL who have not yet burned a year or more of their entry level contract will be what AZ covets most (totally just my opinion).

As such I would offer something like: Thomas/Madden/Grans/Spence (pick 1) + Vilardi + Kupari + a 2022 1st Round Pick. Originally AZ asked for 2 1st round picks so this is giving them more than they asked for in essentially 3 first round picks (two of which are NHL ready), and a high end prospect

I do think the Kings would be wise to at least try to make a deal for Chychrun and am not advocating that they simply sit back.