Elliotte Friedman: Chychrun May Be Available

[jt]

Well, it's not a non-issue, but this injury history isn't a huge concern if the Kings medical staff clears him for knee issues.

Jan 18, 2022 Missed 11 games (upper body injury).
Jul 13, 2020 Missed the last 7 regular season games (hip injury).
Feb 09, 2019 Missed 4 games (lower body injury).
Nov 21, 2018 Missed 2 games (upper body injury).
Nov 13, 2018 Missed 16 games (knee injury).
Apr 07, 2018 Missed the last 2 regular season games (lower body injury).
Jan 20, 2018 Missed 1 game (illness).
Dec 02, 2017 Missed 28 games (knee injury).
Dec 27, 2016 Missed 1 game (concussion).

 

[showmethemony]

Gostisbehere doesn?t look like his numbers are too terrible on that crappy Yotes team.

Also, if the Blue Jackets decide to rebuild, maybe just maybe they?d accept something crazy for Werenski. That?s a trade I?d make, even if it meant giving them Turcotte, Vilardi, Clarke, and a 1st..

What???

 

[showmethemony]

So you're thinking fair value for a 23 yr old D who has these numbers:

68 games: 7/13/20
50 games: 4/10/14
53 games: 5/15/20
63 games: 12/14/26
56 games: 18/23/41
29 games: 2/6/8 (on arguably the worst team in the NHL for the last several years)

...is a 1st rounder that will likely be in the 20s + a guy who struggles to stay in the lineup on the 4th line + a prospect who has proven absolutely nothing in the NHL and has just barely started to prove he can produce in the AHL.

I don't know if that would get Gostisbehere (who I wouldn't want at all), much less Chychrun.



Although I'd prefer losing Vilardi and Kupari over Turcotte, what has Turcotte done to warrant being untouchable? I see him play in the NHL and he's fine but does nothing remarkable. He may one day but 3 G and 7 A in 18 games in the AHL this season doesn't scream "awesome prospect" IMO. He's still got time to blossom but I've said it before and I'll say it again, he looks like a failed #5 overall pick and more like someone a team would be happy to take in the teens of the 1st round.

He is supposed to be a Mike Richards type isn't he? If that's the case, then we hold onto him at all costs. Those types of players are the type to have their number retired. The type to do whatever it takes to win. Think Messier, Brindamour, Yzerman, Gilmour. That's the kind of player every team needs. I would love to see Turcotte stay on this team and become captain and lead us to more cups. No one on this roster has what Turcotte could potentially become. Nobody.

 

[jt]

He is supposed to be a Mike Richards type isn't he? If that's the case, then we hold onto him at all costs. Those types of players are the type to have their number retired. The type to do whatever it takes to win. Think Messier, Brindamour, Yzerman, Gilmour. That's the kind of player every team needs. I would love to see Turcotte stay on this team and become captain and lead us to more cups. No one on this roster has what Turcotte could potentially become. Nobody.

Not to get too deep into the weeds, but Richards had HUGE offensive numbers in juniors. Turcotte had nice USHL numbers but that's not the same level of competition and his numbers at UW were good not great. And in Ontario he's been good not great. I respect the comparison to Richards (and Messier, Brindamour, Yzerman, and Gilmour) but without the offense it's not quite the same.

So if he's a 40 point guy, who's the comparison? Not those guys.

And don't get me wrong. I don't think Turcotte is bad or a waste of a roster spot. I'm just not sold on him being an elite core player who drives Cup wins like, say, Sami Pahlsson (7th rounder) or Brayden Point (3rd rounder).

 

[showmethemony]

Not to get too deep into the weeds, but Richards had HUGE offensive numbers in juniors. Turcotte had nice USHL numbers but that's not the same level of competition and his numbers at UW were good not great. And in Ontario he's been good not great. I respect the comparison to Richards (and Messier, Brindamour, Yzerman, and Gilmour) but without the offense it's not quite the same.

So if he's a 40 point guy, who's the comparison? Not those guys.

And don't get me wrong. I don't think Turcotte is bad or a waste of a roster spot. I'm just not sold on him being an elite core player who drives Cup wins like, say, Sami Pahlsson (7th rounder) or Brayden Point (3rd rounder).

But you can't really be sure until he makes it in the NHL. Is that really something LA should risk? I say, wait until you see what you've got and then make that decision.

 

[jt]

But you can't really be sure until he makes it in the NHL. Is that really something LA should risk? I say, wait until you see what you've got and then make that decision.

Maybe. The problem is that the AHL is littered with guys teams took too long to decide weren't NHlers. Blake is paid a bunch of money to evaluate players and he needs to figure that out NOW. Because if he passes on Chychrun because he's convinced Turcotte is a key to winning Cups he better be right...and have a plan to build a Cup contending D.

And like I've said before, if not Chychrun, then who? Nobody?

 

[Helvetica]

But you can't really be sure until he makes it in the NHL. Is that really something LA should risk? I say, wait until you see what you've got and then make that decision.

You won't have a piece to trade if you wait. If he's good, he stays. If he isnt, his value is gone. Right now he's just a valuable asset, which we need to trade to fill an area of need. At some point, you have to pull the trigger.

 

[Illegal_Stick]

You won't have a piece to trade if you wait. If he's good, he stays. If he isnt, his value is gone. Right now he's just a valuable asset, which we need to trade to fill an area of need. At some point, you have to pull the trigger.

It’s the truth. I’ve seen this board for nuts over not hanging on to Gleason, Johnson and others… also
The odd Kubalik. Bottom line - this is part of the reason you stockpile assets to trade for what you need.

 

[Helvetica]

It’s the truth. I’ve seen this board for nuts over not hanging on to Gleason, Johnson and others… also
The odd Kubalik. Bottom line - this is part of the reason you stockpile assets to trade for what you need.

we knew going into this season that it was pretty likely one of Vilardi or Turcotte would get traded. If Vilardi had any value right now its likely we'd be talking about him instead.

 

[showmethemony]

Maybe. The problem is that the AHL is littered with guys teams took too long to decide weren't NHlers. Blake is paid a bunch of money to evaluate players and he needs to figure that out NOW. Because if he passes on Chychrun because he's convinced Turcotte is a key to winning Cups he better be right...and have a plan to build a Cup contending D.

And like I've said before, if not Chychrun, then who? Nobody?

You wait for guys like Faber, Grans to come up and make a difference. I guarantee you it's not hard to turn somebody into a Chychrun. Durzi's basically right there, without the defensive play. I think you just wait on the D and don't trade valuable offensive prospects.

 

[jt]

You wait for guys like Faber, Grans to come up and make a difference. I guarantee you it's not hard to turn somebody into a Chychrun. Durzi's basically right there, without the defensive play. I think you just wait on the D and don't trade valuable offensive prospects.

You know those are all RD, right? Are you saying don't worry about LD and just go with high-end RD?

The other side is if you don't start trading offensive prospects you'll start losing them on waivers for nothing.

Also, then you're wasting the last good years of Kopi, Quick, and Doughty.

 

[DryKing]

That's true about elite years. But a package for a proven elite D on a reasonable contract is WAY more than Turcotte + Vilardi/Kupari + 2022 1st. Take a look at the comps of past trades for proven elite D on a reasonable contract (which almost never come up anyway). Karlsson would be the comp and it would be much more than that.


I'll ask a little different question since you seem to see Turcotte as a vital piece of winning a Cup. Who would you compare him to?

Just a note, Karlsson is a poor comparison as he was one of the best defensemen in the league at time of trade and a norris winner prior to the trade. I really haven't seen Chychrun play enough to properly evaluate him, so in my trade ideas I am looking more at stats, trending and expert projections. At the end of the day, he is worth whatever the top offering team is willing to pay for him.

In regards to you second question, I realize this probably sounds wild but I would compare Turcotte to Igor Larionov.

 

[santiclaws]

In regards to you second question, I realize this probably sounds wild but I would compare Turcotte to Igor Larionov.

I say this with the utmost respect: You're out of your ****ing mind.

 

[jt]

Just a note, Karlsson is a poor comparison as he was one of the best defensemen in the league at time of trade and a norris winner prior to the trade. I really haven't seen Chychrun play enough to properly evaluate him, so in my trade ideas I am looking more at stats, trending and expert projections. At the end of the day, he is worth whatever the top offering team is willing to pay for him.

I agree Karlsson isn't the best comparison (he's a RD anyway) but then who is? Who's the last 23ish year old LD to be traded? Here are the comps hockey talking heads mention...IMO almost none are anywhere close:

Burns (pure offense no defense - the Wild played him at wing A LOT) + 2012 2nd for Setoguchi (24 yr old proven pure goal scorer) + Coyle (19 yr old and one of the most sought after kids in the entire NHL at the time) + 2011 #28 pick (Zach Phillips - yawn)
Butcher + 2022 5th for futures (salary dump)
Bear for Foegele (Bear is very good but brings no offense)
Schmidt for 2022 3rd (Schmidt was a journeyman at this point, wasn't very good, and was a salary dump by the Canucks)
Jones + 2022 1st + 2022 2nd for Boqvist + 2021 1st + 2021 2nd + 2022 1st (might be a good comparison but BJs knew they were losing him and everyone knew Jones would command twice the salary (until age 36) of Chychrun (until age 27))
Ekman-Larsson + Garland for Roussel + Beagle + Eriksson + 2021 1st + 2022 7th + 2023 7th (OEL + Garland isn't a good comp because nobody besides Benning thought OEL (who was 7 yrs older than Chychrun) could play top 4 minutes anymore)
Ristolainen for Hagg + 2021 1st + 2023 2nd (one of the worst trades in the last 5 years. Ristolainen hasn't been the catastrophe most thought he would be, but he's just a regular 2nd line D and nothing at all special like Chychrun has been the last 2 seasons)
Ellis for Myers + Patrick (Ellis was 29 so it's not a great comparison but it's closer than most of the rest of these, even so, it's not very good because nobody thinks Ellis can be an offensive stud like Chychrun can be and he was 6 yrs old with some hard miles)
Leddy for Panik + 2021 2nd (Leddy was a salary dump and he was 30 so it's no comparison)
Graves for Maltsev + 2021 2nd (also a salary dump and nobody ever thought Graves could be a 1/1a D on a good team)
Matheson + Sceviour for Hornqvist (Rutherford swinging for the fences trying to get a 25 yr old failed former and overpaid #23 overall pick for his own overpaid forward that he didn't want anymore. If this trade had happened when Matheson was 23 it could be a good comp but by this time Matheson was a mess and worth almost nothing in trade except for someone desperate like Rutherford)
Skjei for 2020 1st (not a comp because Skjei was never thought of as a potential 1 or 1a like Chychrun is)
Martinez for 2021 1st + 2020 2nd (Martinez was old and had no potential to be a 1 or 1a, so not a comp)
Miller for 2021 2nd + 2022 5th (Miller is no comp to Chychrun)
Montour for Guile + 2019 1st (there was a time Montour would have been a good comp for Chychrun but not when he was traded by the Ducks, by then he was a 4-6 D, not a 1-3)
Muzzin for Grundstrom + Durzi + 2019 1st (not the worst comp but Muzzin never had Chychrun's offense, which boosts Chychrun's value a lot)
McDonagh + Miller for Howden (2016 #27 pick) + Hajek (2016 #37 pick) + 2018 1st + 2019 2nd + Namestnikov (a nobody throw-in) (if the Coyotes were willing to trade a Miller type player, this would be an ok comp to start with. The problem is that McDonagh was 28 and had proven he couldn't a a 1 or 1a D for the Rangers (he's really good but still needs protected minutes with TB and Hedman being the workhorse) and Miller was an inconsistent enigma when traded. They've both since proven to be vital pieces on very good teams. But is 2018 McDonagh + 2018 Miller worth 2022 Chychrun? I don't think so, so it would take more than 2018 Howden + 2018 Hajek + 2018 1st + 2019 2nd + 2018 Namestnikov (essentially two 1sts and two 2nds) to get 2022 Chychrun.
Jones (21 yrs old) for Johansen (23 yrs old). I'd love this comp but the Coyotes aren't looking for a Johansen type and the Kings don't have one to trade.
Toews for 2021 2nd + 2022 2nd (I'd love this to be a comp because 2020 Toews might be the closest comparison to 2022 Chychrun on this list, but he still wasn't looked at as a potential 1 or 1a. But the real issue is that Lamoriello traded him for 2 reasons: 1. he had a hissy fit because Toews requested arbitration and 2. he knew Toews would win and put the NYI is cap hell. If the Coyotes were in a similar situation to the NYI, this would be a starting point comp.
Trouba for Pionk + 2019 #20 (another one I'd love for this to be a comp but Trouba had already started to show that he wasn't a 1 or 1a and he never was (or has been) the offensive player Chychrun has been.


So, what do you think? Do you see any good comps on this list? Or can you think of any others? After doing all this, IMO it really comes down to whether Chychrun can be a legit 1 or 1a. If he can't he's not worth what the Coyotes are asking. If he can, he is and you have to pay the price because true 1/1a D who are this young just don't come on the market much. At best, you can trade for ones who are unproven like Toews and Pionk, or older ones like Karlsson, 2017 Jones, and (arbuably) Burns.

 

[jt]

In regards to you second question, I realize this probably sounds wild but I would compare Turcotte to Igor Larionov.

I'm pulling this out in hopes of getting more people to throw out comps for Turcotte.

So santiclaws's correct assessment aside......

Larionov was an elite skill player in the USSR and when he came to the NHL was still an elite playmaker and very good scorer. He wasn't the workaholic almost grinder Turcotte is. Or do you see Turcotte as an elite playmaker?

 

[hokiecat]

Is anyone concerned that Chychrun has been absolute dog **** this season? Even when Doughty was minus-34 the was still among the team leaders in point shares. He was playing ok on bad bad team. Chychrun has been playing terrible on a bad team. And it is going from a small sample size to a point where I'm a bit concerned what the heck is going on with his game.

 

[hokiecat]

I'm pulling this out in hopes of getting more people to throw out comps for Turcotte.

So santiclaws's correct assessment aside......

Larionov was an elite skill player in the USSR and when he came to the NHL was still an elite playmaker and very good scorer. He wasn't the workaholic almost grinder Turcotte is. Or do you see Turcotte as an elite playmaker?

Turcotte is not the professor. I watched Turcotte at rookie camp after he was drafted and he stood out. The skill and hustle was obvious to see even to me. So I get why he was picked 5th. But he's struggled to produce in the pros and that is concerning. Even in college he wasn't tearing it up. So I'll throw out a couple of names. Upside is Mike Richards. More concerning case is Brett Connolly. Not in the style but in the sense that you have a 5-6 overall pick who is a solid NHL player but only as a contributing piece.

If I'm Blake, I don't want to trade Turcotte because I love the combination of hustle and skill but I move him to get my guy.

 

[jt]

Is anyone concerned that Chychrun has been absolute dog **** this season? Even when Doughty was minus-34 the was still among the team leaders in point shares. He was playing ok on bad bad team. Chychrun has been playing terrible on a bad team. And it is going from a small sample size to a point where I'm a bit concerned what the heck is going on with his game.

Concerned? Yeah. But if he wasn't he either 1. wouldn't be available or 2. would cost what Karlsson cost.

But that's where the Kings have to do serious homework and why they get paid big money and have a full team of scouts. This is exactly the time they make their money, earn their reputations, and either keep their jobs or get fired. These are the key moments in a franchise and if they can't do it, they should be replaced.

That's not to say they SHOULD trade for Chychrun but they damn well better use every bit of expertise in the organization (maybe even calling former teammate Jeff (Jacob's dad)). And if they pass and he turns into Pionk, Toews, or even Jones they suck and should be fired. Same thing if they trade Turcotte for him and Chychrun turns into Trouba and/or Turcotte turns into O'Reilly...same thing. Their job is to predict what guys like Chychrun and Turcotte will probably develop into. I sure as hell don't know but they better know more than I do.

As for Chychrun himself, playing on an awful team can be demoralizing...Doughty has said as much and explained that's partly why his game tanked for a couple years. Is that the case with Chychrun? Hell if I know but the Kings need to research it and find out.

 

[drums4dmf]

I thought we already agreed that Turcotte's ceiling is Richards? Which imo is pretty accurate...

JT - I think the Toews comp is is in the ballpark. May need to change one of the seconds to a first and they may want an existing prospect to replace to 2nd rdr..

 

[DryKing]

I say this with the utmost respect: You're out of your ****ing mind.

Haha I totally get where you are coming from and expected to be flamed for that comment. Thanks for being kind in the process

So, what do you think? Do you see any good comps on this list? Or can you think of any others? After doing all this, IMO it really comes down to whether Chychrun can be a legit 1 or 1a. If he can't he's not worth what the Coyotes are asking. If he can, he is and you have to pay the price because true 1/1a D who are this young just don't come on the market much. At best, you can trade for ones who are unproven like Toews and Pionk, or older ones like Karlsson, 2017 Jones, and (arbuably) Burns.

I agree, there are some good comparisons on the list you provided but the best ones were at a different stage of their career. I think Blake will be very cautious on what he offers, though, as if he gives up top prospects in our system he needs it to be a big hit / successful. If Chychrun really has the good to be a future lasting 1a then it's a deal that needs to happen - I'm just personally not yet sold on him.

I'm pulling this out in hopes of getting more people to throw out comps for Turcotte.

So santiclaws's correct assessment aside......

Larionov was an elite skill player in the USSR and when he came to the NHL was still an elite playmaker and very good scorer. He wasn't the workaholic almost grinder Turcotte is. Or do you see Turcotte as an elite playmaker?

Yeah I don't see Turcotte as a grinder, he has elite level hockey IQ and passing, and good shooting (a step under elite). What Turcotte has to do to make the team right now is grind and while he is capable of that, I don't see that as his true strength. I really think people are underestimating how much talent he truly has and the future will show it. Let's agree to revisit in 5 years.