Kempe Contract Watch Thread

I think the Kings demise is being a bit exaggerated. Am I disappointed with some of the moves we have made(Ceci and Gavrikov) Yes. But I do believe the Kings were good enough to win the cup last year. We had the Oilers on the ropes and if any of 20 separate things goes differently(Byfield clears zone, Poor Challenge, Missing empty nets, Playing the 4th line, Etc) we likely make a run last year. This year has been a disappointing start. But lets calm down a bit and let it play out. In our four games we have played 3 of the top 4 teams in the western conference as well as the Wild who have been one of the better teams in the west 3 of the past four years. Three of the games on the road. We played poorly against the Avs and that happens. Beat VGK on the road, lost by a single goal to a team who went 30-7-4 at home last year, and lost in a shootout to the Wild again on the road. Lets give it a few months before we decide we should cancel the rest of the season.

Yes, it is still early in this season. However.......

I am not sure I buy into the Kings going to the Final if they get past the Oilers. The Oilers had a rough start. Could not deal with the Kings forecheck and their D (Bouchard) was coughing up the puck as usual. We also got the "Crappy Skinner" in the first few games. The Oilers had some injuries to deal with as well. That being said, in those games once the Oilers started to press the Kings, the team had no answer. Could they have stolen that series? Sure.... Though, after that I am not sure that they get past Vegas even though they were hurt. I really doubt they would have defeated the Stars in the CF. Of course, anything can happen come PO time.

Just because they almost snuck by the Oilers when Skinner was playing horribly, does not mean they were a contender. I think that looking back at last year and thinking the Kings were close could cause one to have a different view on the Team's outlook this year.

Of course, this is all just my opinion on the matter.

To top it off, our Vezina candidate is not looking great either. He is currently winless and is ranked 50th out of 57 goalies. Of course the below stats are not all his fault.

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Pardon but this is so silly. I love Dean as much as anyone - how can you not? And he did deliver two Cups and he did build probably the best Kings teams we’ll ever see.

However, the team barely made it in in 2012. How many 1 goal games it did it take them to get there? I don’t know what the exact number is, but it could have been as close as 3 goals going the other way and they lose a stretch game or two and boom: they miss the playoffs and Dean is fired.

Three regular season goals separating humiliating failure and ultimate glory. That’s the razor’s edge Dean’s legacy danced on.

The Kings were potentially a Byfield clear away last year from a run to the finals. I am so tired of this yarn that a professional sports organization is content to be good enough to make the playoffs but not be good enough to win a round. It’s freaking absurd, especially since they sold fewer tickets last year.

Winning is a fine line. I’m more pissed at Hiller than I am anyone in the front office.
This would maybe make sense if you ignore how great the kings were as well in 2013.
That was one of the most epic WC Finals in NHL history. But don't look now there was a bunch of one goal games here as well.

This would also maybe make sense if you ignore the Kings 2014 SC Win.
Reverse sweep of the Sharks. All series up to the Cup final went 7 games. Could have gone either way...right?

So little separating failure from ultimate glory.
Those three years were undeserved, and the Cups were barely, just barely won by a team that should not have been there.

Soooo much closer to getting out of the first round against the Oilers ....over and over again.

In terms of your belief that organizations are not content with just being "good enough", that is the reality of MOST sports teams.

You don't own them for the profits you make year over year operations. You make your money just owning it and then selling it down the road for MASSIVE profit. Most teams just "function" year over year while their value rises and rises.

It's why Danny B is a good fit. He keeps the house in order and floats it along at minimum, and makes sure there is no undue risk to potential money loss in operations.

Rebuilds are risky and cost revenue (loss of revenue due to loss of fan$$$)
Chasing championships are risky and cost revenue (big spending that may result in no championship)

The easy, sustainable path for professional teams is the most common: Content to be good enough to make the playoffs but not be good enough to win a round or two.
 
The problem with tearing it all down and tanking in the cap world and with the draft lottery is that it doesn't really work anymore. Or takes at least a decade. At least.

How is San Jose doing? Chicago? What contending team tore everything down to the studs, got crappy, rebuilt through the draft and came back to being a contender in the last 10 years? Last 15? Are you really ready for the Kings to stink for 10-15 years with no guarantees about what happens after that?
 
This would maybe make sense if you ignore how great the kings were as well in 2013.
That was one of the most epic WC Finals in NHL history. But don't look now there was a bunch of one goal games here as well.

This would also maybe make sense if you ignore the Kings 2014 SC Win.
Reverse sweep of the Sharks. All series up to the Cup final went 7 games. Could have gone either way...right?

So little separating failure from ultimate glory.
Those three years were undeserved, and the Cups were barely, just barely won by a team that should not have been there.

Soooo much closer to getting out of the first round against the Oilers ....over and over again.

In terms of your belief that organizations are not content with just being "good enough", that is the reality of MOST sports teams.

You don't own them for the profits you make year over year operations. You make your money just owning it and then selling it down the road for MASSIVE profit. Most teams just "function" year over year while their value rises and rises.

It's why Danny B is a good fit. He keeps the house in order and floats it along at minimum, and makes sure there is no undue risk to potential money loss in operations.

Rebuilds are risky and cost revenue (loss of revenue due to loss of fan$$$)
Chasing championships are risky and cost revenue (big spending that may result in no championship)

The easy, sustainable path for professional teams is the most common: Content to be good enough to make the playoffs but not be good enough to win a round or two.
This is so patronizing it’s entertaining. I like your writing style though and I mean that.

“Those three years were undeserved, and the Cups were barely, just barely won by a team that should not have been there.”

Not remotely what I said and I think you actually know that but your narrative requires me to be that stupid to make your point.

I said Dean built probably the greatest Kings teams we’ll ever see. I don’t think we can do better than what 2014 gave us, and no one is going to go 2012 and hit four 3-0 series leads in a row.

But, none of this happens if they miss the playoffs in 2012. And yes, they were an extra goal or two getting by Quick and a goal or two not scored by Carter to make that a reality. And if they don’t make the playoffs, Dean’s whole vision never would have been realized because he’d have gotten fired. And the next GM wasn’t going to sit there and make marginal changes. And then what? We may well be sitting here without any Cups still.

That’s how fragile and profound sports can be. It’s how incredible the story of this franchise now is.

And what that really means big picture is by talking about a guy like Liewieke the way you do you actually minimize what happened in the first place. It makes those Cup years into some paint-by-numbers rebuild that is easily replicated if only we had someone in the business side who cared just as much as that fine soldier Timmy L.

There are real issues with the past few years to go over: Blake not selling assets as Sakic did in COL, rushing the rebuild a year or two too early, taking Turcotte over Cozens, putting all eggs in the Peterson basket, and of course, the PLD trade. Well, and now potentially hanging onto Hiller.

But simply crying “Org doesn’t care like they did when Dean was here” when Dean built a team that almost wasn’t is not the whole story here, let alone the center of the plot as you harp on so often.
 
The problem with tearing it all down and tanking in the cap world and with the draft lottery is that it doesn't really work anymore. Or takes at least a decade. At least.

How is San Jose doing? Chicago? What contending team tore everything down to the studs, got crappy, rebuilt through the draft and came back to being a contender in the last 10 years? Last 15? Are you really ready for the Kings to stink for 10-15 years with no guarantees about what happens after that?

At this point, yes. I don't see another option unless Greentree and 2 or 3 other prospects MAJORLY exceed expectations. But a) there's just no room on the roster b) our prospect development and drafting is terrible and c) Hiller won't play them regardless.
 
This is so patronizing it’s entertaining. I like your writing style though and I mean that.



Not remotely what I said and I think you actually know that but your narrative requires me to be that stupid to make your point.

I said Dean built probably the greatest Kings teams we’ll ever see. I don’t think we can do better than what 2014 gave us, and no one is going to go 2012 and hit four 3-0 series leads in a row.

But, none of this happens if they miss the playoffs in 2012. And yes, they were an extra goal or two getting by Quick and a goal or two not scored by Carter to make that a reality. And if they don’t make the playoffs, Dean’s whole vision never would have been realized because he’d have gotten fired. And the next GM wasn’t going to sit there and make marginal changes. And then what? We may well be sitting here without any Cups still.

That’s how fragile and profound sports can be. It’s how incredible the story of this franchise now is.

And what that really means big picture is by talking about a guy like Liewieke the way you do you actually minimize what happened in the first place. It makes those Cup years into some paint-by-numbers rebuild that is easily replicated if only we had someone in the business side who cared just as much as that fine soldier Timmy L.

There are real issues with the past few years to go over: Blake not selling assets as Sakic did in COL, rushing the rebuild a year or two too early, taking Turcotte over Cozens, putting all eggs in the Peterson basket, and of course, the PLD trade. Well, and now potentially hanging onto Hiller.

But simply crying “Org doesn’t care like they did when Dean was here” when Dean built a team that almost wasn’t is not the whole story here, let alone the center of the plot as you harp on so often.
I dig your style too, man.

Since you don't believe this to be true, your honor I'd like to enter exhibit "G" into evidence:

"G" stands for GALAXY.

I've said this many times, but it bears repeating because people don't know or forget AEG sports history.

Timmy ran Galaxy as well for Uncle Phil. Galaxy had a helluva run under Timmy and his front office.
Best in the league.

But wait for it............when Timmy left AEG, so went the Kings..........so went the Galaxy.
Both entered into the same clown show "bro-culture" "nepotism" front office under new Danny B leadership. Both of Uncle Phil's teams entered into their mediocrity phase.

No longer chasing championships, more interested in bean counting and fleecing the fans for $$$.

Both teams entered into Coach roulette and GM roulette.
Both teams making bone headed signings by poorly qualified GMs.
Both teams winning ZERO since 2014.
Coincidence?

Timmy would have thrown out the front office trash, but Danny B keeps everyone in place.

However Galaxy did win an MLS Cup last season (their sixth).
Fans finally boycotted the club, and forced the complete firing of the front office, and a new "outside" GM brought in to run the show.

(Sidebar this year they are a mess due to their star getting a season ending injury, combined with asinine MLS league rules that forced them to have a fire sale and gut the core of the team due to salary cap rules)

So long as fans keep giving the team money for mediocrity, Danny B. and Luc will be content to stay the course. Low risk, and it keeps the club as close to being in the black as possible year over year.
 
This is so patronizing it’s entertaining. I like your writing style though and I mean that.



Not remotely what I said and I think you actually know that but your narrative requires me to be that stupid to make your point.

I said Dean built probably the greatest Kings teams we’ll ever see. I don’t think we can do better than what 2014 gave us, and no one is going to go 2012 and hit four 3-0 series leads in a row.

But, none of this happens if they miss the playoffs in 2012. And yes, they were an extra goal or two getting by Quick and a goal or two not scored by Carter to make that a reality. And if they don’t make the playoffs, Dean’s whole vision never would have been realized because he’d have gotten fired. And the next GM wasn’t going to sit there and make marginal changes. And then what? We may well be sitting here without any Cups still.

That’s how fragile and profound sports can be. It’s how incredible the story of this franchise now is.

And what that really means big picture is by talking about a guy like Liewieke the way you do you actually minimize what happened in the first place. It makes those Cup years into some paint-by-numbers rebuild that is easily replicated if only we had someone in the business side who cared just as much as that fine soldier Timmy L.

There are real issues with the past few years to go over: Blake not selling assets as Sakic did in COL, rushing the rebuild a year or two too early, taking Turcotte over Cozens, putting all eggs in the Peterson basket, and of course, the PLD trade. Well, and now potentially hanging onto Hiller.

But simply crying “Org doesn’t care like they did when Dean was here” when Dean built a team that almost wasn’t is not the whole story here, let alone the center of the plot as you harp on so often.
My criticism of the current front office brain trust is not that they’re satisfied with just making the playoffs. It’s that they don’t know how to solve for the equation that takes them into the contender tier with the elite teams in the West.

It’s not some stroke of luck that Edmonton, Colorado and Dallas have all been in the running for the #1 seed in the West for the last 5+ seasons. They’re simply more competent where it matters most. They either draft better, trade better, develop better, sign better or play better on the ice than the rest of the West. These things were also true of Dean Lombardi’s Kings from 2012-2014.

He built rosters that weren’t meant for regular season success. That’s why they were a couple fortunate bounces away from missing the playoffs altogether in 2012. Compare the rosters he built over that span to the other contenders in the West and they were deeper than everyone except for Chicago, Vancouver and maybe St. Louis.

Can anyone look at the rosters the Kings have iced since they returned to the playoffs 4 years ago and honestly say they were or are among the Top 3 in the West? I’d say last year they were probably #4 if Doughty were healthy. But the other years? Nope. This year? Nope.

So yes, getting fortunate bounces is incredibly important and impossible to predict but icing a team that is deeper than your opponent and better coached is something a front office absolutely can control.
 
My criticism of the current front office brain trust is not that they’re satisfied with just making the playoffs. It’s that they don’t know how to solve for the equation that takes them into the contender tier with the elite teams in the West.

It’s not some stroke of luck that Edmonton, Colorado and Dallas have all been in the running for the #1 seed in the West for the last 5+ seasons. They’re simply more competent where it matters most. They either draft better, trade better, develop better, sign better or play better on the ice than the rest of the West. These things were also true of Dean Lombardi’s Kings from 2012-2014.

He built rosters that weren’t meant for regular season success. That’s why they were a couple fortunate bounces away from missing the playoffs altogether in 2012. Compare the rosters he built over that span to the other contenders in the West and they were deeper than everyone except for Chicago, Vancouver and maybe St. Louis.

Can anyone look at the rosters the Kings have iced since they returned to the playoffs 4 years ago and honestly say they were or are among the Top 3 in the West? I’d say last year they were probably #4 if Doughty were healthy. But the other years? Nope. This year? Nope.

So yes, getting fortunate bounces is incredibly important and impossible to predict but icing a team that is deeper than your opponent and better coached is something a front office absolutely can control.

This year - at least on paper - they are. On paper. And not just because of DD, but primarily because of the better forward depth. Dumoulin isn't that far off Gavrikov. IF everyone stays relatively healthy and most of them play up to their expected potential (with some improvement to QB and especially BC's game) this IS a better team on paper. Especially if Clarke manages to push Ceci's TOI to a minimum.

The issue is that for a deep playoff run a lot of things would have to click about the players AND Hiller would need to mature and improve. Last season, even if DD was healthy, with Hiller handling the rotations the way he did, I don't think they get past the 2nd round if they ever manage to beat the Oilers. They'd be gassed as heck.

The problem is that the improvement this season is not good enough in order to be confident about their chances - and that was the intent behind hiring Ken. Build a winner. But he built a slightly better team than last year. Last year they had 0% reserve on paper, this year they have maybe 5-10% on the account of the roster, but the coach is the same. Hopefully Hiller learns to trust the bottom forward line and hopefully Ceci (and to an extent Kuemper) get their s*** together sooner rather than later. If this happens within one month and no one else loses their s*** or gets injured, I will be mildly confident.


Also, some people are saying "full rebuild". Full rebuilds just don't work well enough. Don't take Lombardi's stroke of genius+luck combo as the measure, rather take the s***, forever-rebuilding teams as the measure, as those cases are far more common. An efficient retool is what you need and if this team is out of the playoff race and Kempe isn't resigned I hope as hell Ken trades him, Drew, Kuzmenko, Perry (and Kuemper+Ceci or Edmundson all with significant money retained) in return for primarily prospects knocking on the NHL door, not just picks (or use the picks to acquire those prospects). The haul would be significant, but there would be enough talent and veteran leadership left for the youth not to be completely lost in space for half a decade. Let Danault be Kopitar-lite and hope for QB and especially BC to take their game to the next level.

Tanking multiple seasons for top picks isn't healthy nor is it reliable unless the NHL-ready roster is completely devoid of any young players with potential.
 
This year - at least on paper - they are. On paper. And not just because of DD, but primarily because of the better forward depth. Dumoulin isn't that far off Gavrikov. IF everyone stays relatively healthy and most of them play up to their expected potential (with some improvement to QB and especially BC's game) this IS a better team on paper. Especially if Clarke manages to push Ceci's TOI to a minimum.

The issue is that for a deep playoff run a lot of things would have to click about the players AND Hiller would need to mature and improve. Last season, even if DD was healthy, with Hiller handling the rotations the way he did, I don't think they get past the 2nd round if they ever manage to beat the Oilers. They'd be gassed as heck.

The problem is that the improvement this season is not good enough in order to be confident about their chances - and that was the intent behind hiring Ken. Build a winner. But he built a slightly better team than last year. Last year they had 0% reserve on paper, this year they have maybe 5-10% on the account of the roster, but the coach is the same. Hopefully Hiller learns to trust the bottom forward line and hopefully Ceci (and to an extent Kuemper) get their s*** together sooner rather than later. If this happens within one month and no one else loses their s*** or gets injured, I will be mildly confident.


Also, some people are saying "full rebuild". Full rebuilds just don't work well enough. Don't take Lombardi's stroke of genius+luck combo as the measure, rather take the s***, forever-rebuilding teams as the measure, as those cases are far more common. An efficient retool is what you need and if this team is out of the playoff race and Kempe isn't resigned I hope as hell Ken trades him, Drew, Kuzmenko, Perry (and Kuemper+Ceci or Edmundson all with significant money retained) in return for primarily prospects knocking on the NHL door, not just picks (or use the picks to acquire those prospects). The haul would be significant, but there would be enough talent and veteran leadership left for the youth not to be completely lost in space for half a decade. Let Danault be Kopitar-lite and hope for QB and especially BC to take their game to the next level.

Tanking multiple seasons for top picks isn't healthy nor is it reliable unless the NHL-ready roster is completely devoid of any young players with potential.
Most common sense post I’ve read in some time. Most fans have zero clue what a ‘full rebuild’ is.
 
In actual Kempe contract reporting by Lebrun:

Kings-Kempe talks​

Now that many other big stars around the league have signed extensions, there’s an increasing spotlight on the Los Angeles Kings and their effort to extend pending unrestricted free agent forward Adrian Kempe — and how they’ll find a deal that makes sense in the NHL’s new salary-cap landscape.

“I know (GM) Kenny (Holland) is talking to Adrian and J.P. Barry, his agent,” Kings president Luc Robitaille told The Athletic. “It’s still ongoing. It’s just finding the number that works for us and works for him. He’s a priority for us. Kenny told me the same and said they’re going to keep talking until they get it done.”

As I wrote last week, an AAV in the $11 million to $12 million range probably makes sense here on a long-term deal.

The urgency to extend Kempe is magnified by the reality of losing the great Anze Kopitar after this season. The Kings, however, were not taken by surprise by their captain’s announcement before the season that 2025-26 would be it.

“It’s going to be a big hole, but we’ve known it,” Robitaille said. “We’ve been talking as an organization for three years. I remember when he signed for two more years, he kind of gave us a heads-up that would be it. So we’ve known, and we drafted (Quinton) Byfield. Turc (Alex Turcotte) is finally healthy. Just like every team, we’re going to have a big hole to fill. It happens to every one of us. It’s something we’ve been preparing for, and we’re going to keep our eyes open to how we’re going to fill that hole.”

Filling that hole would have been more alluring had dreamlike options like Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel decided to hit the market.
“I think we were all expecting all these guys to sign,” Robitaille said. “Great players will always find a way. Teams understand how it is. One guy took a lot less (McDavid), but everyone else seemed to sign to what their value is, their production. Maybe Jack Eichel took a little less. But that’s the way our game is.

“Sometimes you look at the AAV and you look at what he’s worth and so forth. But sometimes the player will say, ‘I’m getting $75 million or $90 million. That’s a lot of money.’ So I think guys are looking at it that way. They’ve earned it. It’s good for the game that these guys are signing, and it’s good for the fans. And I think it’s going to happen more and more as we move forward.”


Lot of nothing and if it was this simple they'd have a deal already. Hard to tell who is posturing over what but good luck attracting UFA's when you won't even pay your won players Holland.
 
Pardon but this is so silly. I love Dean as much as anyone - how can you not? And he did deliver two Cups and he did build probably the best Kings teams we’ll ever see.

However, the team barely made it in in 2012. How many 1 goal games it did it take them to get there? I don’t know what the exact number is, but it could have been as close as 3 goals going the other way and they lose a stretch game or two and boom: they miss the playoffs and Dean is fired.

Three regular season goals separating humiliating failure and ultimate glory. That’s the razor’s edge Dean’s legacy danced on.
Except for the 2nd half of the 2012 season, the Kings were a top 3 team (statistically)

3 major changes were made during the season. 1) Sutter in as coach. 2) Jack Johnson for Jeff Carter 3) elevation of young players.
1) There was great joy when TMurray finally got got. Loyalty almost got in the way.
2) Upgrade at D, and an All star level 2C? Yes thank you.
3) Voynov, DKing and JNolan in, dead weight like Ethan Moreau and Trent Hunter out

Full rebuilds are not tickets to the finals. They are a chance to draft a superstar or 2. It takes a lot more to actually contend. Like the NFL, it's not an accident that certain teams compete, and others are perennial basement teams.

1 of the organizational skills needed is recognizing where the team is on the contention continuum. Kings need to realize that they screwed up their last round of early draft picks. Time to sell and get back in the top of the draft. So don't sign long term deals to players who won't be around when those picks are ready to compete. So long Kempe, good luck elsewhere.
 
My criticism of the current front office brain trust is not that they’re satisfied with just making the playoffs. It’s that they don’t know how to solve for the equation that takes them into the contender tier with the elite teams in the West.

It’s not some stroke of luck that Edmonton, Colorado and Dallas have all been in the running for the #1 seed in the West for the last 5+ seasons. They’re simply more competent where it matters most. They either draft better, trade better, develop better, sign better or play better on the ice than the rest of the West. These things were also true of Dean Lombardi’s Kings from 2012-2014.

He built rosters that weren’t meant for regular season success. That’s why they were a couple fortunate bounces away from missing the playoffs altogether in 2012. Compare the rosters he built over that span to the other contenders in the West and they were deeper than everyone except for Chicago, Vancouver and maybe St. Louis.

Can anyone look at the rosters the Kings have iced since they returned to the playoffs 4 years ago and honestly say they were or are among the Top 3 in the West? I’d say last year they were probably #4 if Doughty were healthy. But the other years? Nope. This year? Nope.

So yes, getting fortunate bounces is incredibly important and impossible to predict but icing a team that is deeper than your opponent and better coached is something a front office absolutely can control.
This is a bit of an overstatement. Comparing teams to those ones isn't exactly apple to apples. Saying they draft better? The Oilers for example between 2010-2019 had 9 picks in the top 10 overall in the draft with the number 1 pick four different times along with the 3rd and 4th. It's easy to draft better when you are constantly drafting in the top 10 of the draft including 4 first overall picks. They got Mcdavid first overall and Draisaitl 3rd overall. Colorado got Mckinnon first overall. So while these teams are run solidly(Specifically Colorado and Dallas) having the first overall pick in obvious transcendent top overall pick years certainly helps.

Also these teams are competitive but the point is to win the cup. Last 15 years
Oilers- 0 Cups
Stars- 0 Cups
Avalanche- 1 Cup

Hardly a dominant run.
 
This is a bit of an overstatement. Comparing teams to those ones isn't exactly apple to apples. Saying they draft better? The Oilers for example between 2010-2019 had 9 picks in the top 10 overall in the draft with the number 1 pick four different times along with the 3rd and 4th. It's easy to draft better when you are constantly drafting in the top 10 of the draft including 4 first overall picks. They got Mcdavid first overall and Draisaitl 3rd overall. Colorado got Mckinnon first overall. So while these teams are run solidly(Specifically Colorado and Dallas) having the first overall pick in obvious transcendent top overall pick years certainly helps.

Also these teams are competitive but the point is to win the cup. Last 15 years
Oilers- 0 Cups
Stars- 0 Cups
Avalanche- 1 Cup

Hardly a dominant run.
Not all dominant teams are better than the Kings in all ways. SOME draft better. SOME trade better. SOME are coached better. That’s the point. There’s many different ways to become elite.

The Oilers have gone to back to back Cup Finals and they’ve made the Conference Finals 3 out of 4 years. They are dominant within the West, where the Kings play. It doesn’t make much sense to compare the Kings to dominant teams in the East when the Conferences are split.

As for the Oilers and Avs drafting #1, well the Kings recently drafted #2 overall and here we are. Drafting #1 overall has never meant an automatic route to elite contender status. Look at the last 10, 15 hell 20 #1 overall draft picks and tell me how many of those teams were/are elite contenders?
 
Not all dominant teams are better than the Kings in all ways. SOME draft better. SOME trade better. SOME are coached better. That’s the point. There’s many different ways to become elite.

The Oilers have gone to back to back Cup Finals and they’ve made the Conference Finals 3 out of 4 years. They are dominant within the West, where the Kings play. It doesn’t make much sense to compare the Kings to dominant teams in the East when the Conferences are split.

As for the Oilers and Avs drafting #1, well the Kings recently drafted #2 overall and here we are. Drafting #1 overall has never meant an automatic route to elite contender status. Look at the last 10, 15 hell 20 #1 overall draft picks and tell me how many of those teams were/are elite contenders?
The Oilers being dominant in the west is entirely due to them having top picks for 10 straight years.
In the playoffs their top 4 Scorers who each had over 20 points were the 3rd pick, 1st pick, 10th pick, and 1st pick overall. I have a tough time giving them a bunch of credit when Mcdavid was a well known organization changing level talent they got first overall after the previous five seasons they had the 1,1,1,3,7 overall picks. They got lucky(or if you believe that, or some believe choosen) to get the 1st pick overall(again). Id argue most teams given 4 number 1 overall picks in six years would have a run of solid play when those players all reach their prime. Especially when one of them was the best prospect in who knows how long and was an obvious megastar.
 
19/20/21 drafts were it. GM Potato didn't do so great.

And who would you draft that would result in a contending team this season? None of the realistic alternatives are considerably bigger difference makers. And please don't say Stutzle. QB is at least as good as him where it matters the most (impact on winning), and has more upside to boot.
 

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