Marner Watch

[LAKingSteve]

Note that Vegas will have to clear considerable space considering they have 9.6M in space and only 18 players under contract at this time. It's doable but could make them top heavy...weak bottom six and challenges with defense.

 

[McSorleyFan]

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All Marner offers are dependent on Vegas.

With no more pre-talk period leading up to July first allowed, where is all this info coming from that Vegas is "the team to beat"? Someone is talking. Whether it's agents, family members or Marner himself. Either way, it's offside on the CBA.
I get it - Friedman needs something to talk about and I often wonder if they make half their sh!t up, but it smells fishy to me.

 

[McSorleyFan]

Note that Vegas will have to clear considerable space considering they have 9.6M in space and only 18 players under contract at this time. It's doable but could make them top heavy...weak bottom six and challenges with defense.

Toronto Maple Leafs West.

 

[LAKingSteve]

With no more pre-talk period leading up to July first, where is all this info coming from that Vegas is "the team to beat"? Someone is talking. Whether it's agents, family members or Marner himself. Either way, it's offside on the CBA.
I get it - Friedman needs something to talk about and I often wonder if they make half their sh!t up, but it smells fishy to me.

It is interesting because there have been other reports that Marner has told others he wants to come to LA.

 

[Statue4Deano]

The only downside is he's worth more after two years. Good problem to have, especially if you're concerned at all about him being Mr regular season only

I was thinking back to previous high profile NHL free agents and I can only think of a few examples of guys who took short term deals to try to win and then cash in with a long term deal. Paul Kariya signing in Colorado for 1 year @ 1.5M then signing a 3 year 18M deal with St. Louis. Marian Hossa signing 1 year @ 7.5M w/Detroit (Ken Holland GM) then he signed a 12 year 63M contract w/Chicago.

 

[Clif]

It’s just insane to me how perfectly Sutter coached that 2012 squad. The Kings won the Cup with Dustin ****ing Penner playing 2nd line minutes. Absolute masterclass by Sutter in maximizing role players.

All that said give me that 2014 team vs anyone in the cap era. They had the experience of winning a Cup. More internal development of the young core. And a healthy Marian Gaborik. What a team.

I actually forget that Dustin Penner was a second liner on the first Cup team. I remember him, just not like that. The D and Quick were elite and the forward group did what they needed to do. You think about what Maurice has done in FL and I’d argue Cassidy in Vegas when they won. Like I don’t see Bednar as being the driving force behind COL, which is fine, just some coaches are elite themselves.

2014 was truly the peak though, agreed. Doughty Muzzin Voynov Mitchell Martinez Regher. I don’t think we’ll ever see a Kings d corps that good ever again.

 

[jammer06]

I was thinking back to previous high profile NHL free agents and I can only think of a few examples of guys who took short term deals to try to win and then cash in with a long term deal. Paul Kariya signing in Colorado for 1 year @ 1.5M then signing a 3 year 18M deal with St. Louis. Marian Hossa signing 1 year @ 7.5M w/Detroit (Ken Holland GM) then he signed a 12 year 63M contract w/Chicago.

This is all to take advantage of a uniquely rising cap, not sure there's a comparable other than gav or there's bridging to better outcome

 

[Statue4Deano]

This is all to take advantage of a uniquely rising cap, not sure there's a comparable other than gav or there's bridging to better outcome

If Marner signs a 2 year deal with SJ, Anaheim or Chicago then we can safely assume it’s all about taking advantage of the cap rise. They all have tons of cap space.

My guess is he wants a team that has a shot at the Cup and will pay him top dollar. That limits his options to Vegas, LA and Carolina imo.

 

[jammer06]

If Marner signs a 2 year deal with SJ, Anaheim or Chicago then we can safely assume it’s all about taking advantage of the cap rise. They all have tons of cap space.

My guess is he wants a team that has a shot at the Cup and will pay him top dollar. That limits his options to Vegas, LA and Carolina imo.

It also has the benefit of renting before buying. He may go full merc, get a cup and call it good for max dollars elsewhere. In any case if he wants 2 years over 3, that's not a negative in my book as a GM, and definitely not a dealbreaker

 

[Johnnysuede71]

I wonder if he's considering the risk of underperforming on such a short contract...which could be very likely on a team like the Kings. He could depreciate his value and then have to go out and get the long term deal at a potentially lower AAV. Am I being naive here?

 

[Pickle_Pucks]

In what world would Marner sign a 2-3 year deal?? He can get 100-110 million easily right now.

Risking that guarantee for an extra 15-20 million (maybe?) down the road is an insane risk. Someone is going to give him 150 million in 3 years when he's 30? I think not! Utter nonsense.

Take the 110 million now and never have a worry for the rest of your life, until the playoffs come.

 

[DRice]

I wonder if he's considering the risk of underperforming on such a short contract...which could be very likely on a team like the Kings. He could depreciate his value and then have to go out and get the long term deal at a potentially lower AAV. Am I being naive here?

Historically, offense has come here to die in favor of a more defensive game, so you're not wrong in that thought.

 

[Statue4Deano]

In what world would Marner sign a 2-3 year deal?? He can get 100-110 million easily right now.

Risking that guarantee for an extra 15-20 million (maybe?) down the road is an insane risk. Someone is going to give him 150 million in 3 years when he's 30? I think not! Utter nonsense.

Take the 110 million now and never have a worry for the rest of your life, until the playoffs come.

This is what I’m thinking. The amount of risk involved to secure an extra 20% under perfect circumstances seems particularly reckless.

Someone in his camp is feeding these pundits the short term contract stuff for a reason. My guess is they’re chumming the waters to squeeze 14M X 7 years out of LA.

Lastly there’s talk that the new CBA will shorten the max length of player contracts down to 7 years for signing your own free agents and 6 years for UFAs. That would lower the total value on his next potential contract even more.

 

[Johnnysuede71]

Historically, offense has come here to die in favor of a more defensive game, so you're not wrong in that thought.

It makes me think he'd much rather be in Vegas on a short-term deal...where he'd be relied upon more to put up big numbers and be less 'Selke-esque'.

 

[DryKing]

I wonder if he's considering the risk of underperforming on such a short contract...which could be very likely on a team like the Kings. He could depreciate his value and then have to go out and get the long term deal at a potentially lower AAV. Am I being naive here?

Yeah you are spot on.

I don't think Marner is as concerned with making top dollar, however, as he is as having the ability to choose his own destiny. He doesn't want to be in another Toronto situation where he is the fans and medias whipping boy. Moreso, he wants to find a place to raise his family that lives up to he and his wife's ideals.

 

[DoubleMinor]

This is what I’m thinking. The amount of risk involved to secure an extra 20% under perfect circumstances seems particularly reckless.

Someone in his camp is feeding these pundits the short term contract stuff for a reason. My guess is they’re chumming the waters to squeeze 14M X 7 years out of LA.

Lastly there’s talk that the new CBA will shorten the max length of player contracts down to 7 years for signing your own free agents and 6 years for UFAs. That would lower the total value on his next potential contract even more.

One thing we should have learned by now is that players and agents are always attempting to maximize the income over the relatively short careers. This seems particularly relevant now as they see the cap rising over the next few years.

To play this out a bit, a two-year deal at 13M per year, followed by a 5-7 year deal at 15-16M is an extra 10-15 million (at least) over a 7-yr/13M deal now.
Of course an agent is looking at things this way. It’s what they are supposed to do.
Yep, there is risk involved. But these numbers are not viewed by us the same way it is to players/agents. They look at millions the way we look at tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands. It a completely different perspective.

I don’t necessarily think this “strategy” (if it’s actually true) is hard to understand. We don’t know where salaries are going to go for the top players. Are we that far away from a NHL player getting 20M a year? This short deal is way to see where the market is willing to go.

 

[05/29/93]

I actually forget that Dustin Penner was a second liner on the first Cup team. I remember him, just not like that. The D and Quick were elite and the forward group did what they needed to do. You think about what Maurice has done in FL and I’d argue Cassidy in Vegas when they won. Like I don’t see Bednar as being the driving force behind COL, which is fine, just some coaches are elite themselves.

2014 was truly the peak though, agreed. Doughty Muzzin Voynov Mitchell Martinez Regher. I don’t think we’ll ever see a Kings d corps that good ever again.

Penner really elevated his game for the playoffs (hence the nickname "Playoff Penner"). A couple of huge goals also, including the OT goal that knocked out the Coyotes in 2012 to put the Kings in the SCF, and his buzzer beater goal the following year against the Blues. His playoff performances redeemed what was initially a bad trade in 2011.

 

[LAKingSteve]

Yeah you are spot on.

I don't think Marner is as concerned with making top dollar, however, as he is as having the ability to choose his own destiny. He doesn't want to be in another Toronto situation where he is the fans and medias whipping boy. Moreso, he wants to find a place to raise his family that lives up to he and his wife's ideals.

If he's not concerned with making top dollar, I'm assuming a no state income tax state would not be a draw. If he goes to Vegas, he's not going for quality of life. He's going where he thinks he has the best chance to win. Otherwise, Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Palos Verdes...all those easily win out over Vegas as far as quality of life.

Edited to say "non state income tax would NOT be a draw"

 

[Birdman]

Thinking more about this, if we actually sign Marner for a gazillion years and Max contract, this screams about Luc trying to get a big name player thinking that he’ll sell tickets. That will tell me that Holland is just a yes man.

When we don’t, and Holland goes out and gets what we need to get this team over the hump and to the finals, then Luc finally gets it.

 

[DarkLeftHand]

Thinking more about this, if we actually sign Marner for a gazillion years and Max contract, this screams about Luc trying to get a big name player thinking that he’ll sell tickets. That will tell me that Holland is just a yes man.

When we don’t, and Holland goes out and gets what we need to get this team over the hump and to the finals, then Luc finally gets it.

So.. Derian Hatcher and Scott Stevens via the way back machine, circa late 90’s? Those two should be able to dispatch the likes of McDavid and Draisaitl in a variety of ways.