Elliotte Friedman: Chychrun May Be Available

[kingnut]

This whole situation doesnt make sense. Hes 23. They have a ton of pics in the upcoming draft and have roughly 7 mil in cap space.

https://www.tsn.ca/arizona-coyotes-nhl-trade-deadline-1.1753863

He is someone you build around IMO. I see the golden domed horsemen as a trade partner due to the cap situation if Eichel is activated.

 

[Clif]

This whole situation doesnt make sense. Hes 23. They have a ton of pics in the upcoming draft and have roughly 7 mil in cap space.

https://www.tsn.ca/arizona-coyotes-nhl-trade-deadline-1.1753863

He is someone you build around IMO. I see the golden domed horsemen as a trade partner due to the cap situation if Eichel is activated.

Maybe he’s refusing to play at a 5k capacity rink next season. I just heard about this yesterday - humiliating!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/sports...ns-to-play-at-asu-college-rink-042409887.html

 

[Helvetica]

This whole situation doesnt make sense. Hes 23. They have a ton of pics in the upcoming draft and have roughly 7 mil in cap space.

https://www.tsn.ca/arizona-coyotes-nhl-trade-deadline-1.1753863

He is someone you build around IMO. I see the golden domed horsemen as a trade partner due to the cap situation if Eichel is activated.

yeah, the whole "willing to take on cap space" throws some cold water on the possibility of financial issues driving the trade. My best guess is he's simply demanded a trade, which definitely isnt far fetched. I can't imagine players wanting to actually play for AZ.

 

[jt]

Maybe he’s refusing to play at a 5k capacity rink next season. I just heard about this yesterday - humiliating!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/sports...ns-to-play-at-asu-college-rink-042409887.html

It's also an hour away in no traffic (maybe 2+ hours in bad traffic) from the part of Phoenix that's growing the most. People who live there don't live like we do. They're not willing to drive much to go to hockey games. At least that's what my wife (lived in Phoenix for 2 years) and people I know in the area tell me.

Now this? It's pathetic.

 

[jt]

For anyone who wants to know more about free agents (not) signing with certain teams, check out this article in The Athletic (which is SO worth the annual fee).

What jumped out at me were the polls about what teams agents steer their clients to and away from and why. The Kings appear on neither list, which means they're not a team agents steer their clients to but also don't steer them away. The "why" was interesting too:

?You know which teams stay in the nicer hotels, have the nicer flights, and have the better services overall for a client.?

?Practice facilities or arena is a good place to start. That?s a reflection of how an owner is willing to spend for their players. But look at other things, like massage therapists and support staff. Does a team have one person handling the job of three people or do they have six people handling the job of three people??

?My barometer for that is basically: Is the owner spending money on the players and the other things fans might not think of? The wives? room, the kids? rooms, the rink, the amenities on the plane. Those are the first-class organizations.?

One agent pointed out that he gives each client a checklist when they approach free agency, and the teams that typically check the most boxes have the strongest and more player-friendly ownership.

It wasn?t a surprise that the Tampa Bay Lightning got the most love in this survey. The two-time defending Stanley Cup champions have developed a reputation that owner Jeff Vinik is one of the gold standards in the sport, willing to spend to the salary cap and open his wallet for other amenities.

The fact Tampa plays in a tax-free state only adds a card to Vinik?s already loaded hand.

While Toronto has its detractors, the Maple Leafs and their massive budget offer a major advantage in the minds of agents. Multiple agents pointed out how the AHL-affiliated Toronto Marlies may have better facilities than some NHL teams as an example.

Along the East Coast, the Rangers and Islanders and their Atlantic Division rivals in Philadelphia are well respected. For the Rangers and Flyers, it?s more historical. Some older agents pointed out that players in Philadelphia have typically been happy for decades, while the Rangers ?flex their financial muscle in a good way,? when it comes to amenities.

?The Flyers do the little things right, always have. Whether it?s making the right amenities for the players or having the right things for the wives.?

One agent pointed out how it?s not customary or required for NHL teams to give a player an NHL jersey to keep when they are called up ? yes, players have to buy their own jersey in many cases ? but in Philadelphia, players are given the small courtesy of getting the jersey. One agent pointed to how the team even goes out of the way to make players? kids feel welcome.

?You play in Philly and you know the organization cares about you and your family.?

The Islanders have risen in the minds of agents, particularly after Lou Lamoriello joined the organization.

?Lou, man, he?s always treated the guys well after the contract negotiation. He may **** you over in the contract negotiation, but he treats guys great once they are in.?

?You know what you get with Lou. He?s not going to listen to you or tell you what he?s gonna do with a trade or something like that. But there is a reason every time I have a client play for a team he?s run they rave about it on the daily and would love to go back there.?

The Islanders? new arena and practice facility, according to one agent, are the cherry on top for an organization that has long needed those amenities to compete with its area rival.

One veteran agent refused to name a single team, pointing out that within the past 10 years it?s gone from a courtesy to a necessity to spend and treat players the right way.

?It?s much easier now to point out the teams you would want to avoid when it comes to owners.?

 

[kingnut]

It's also an hour away in no traffic (maybe 2+ hours in bad traffic) from the part of Phoenix that's growing the most. People who live there don't live like we do. They're not willing to drive much to go to hockey games. At least that's what my wife (lived in Phoenix for 2 years) and people I know in the area tell me.

Now this? It's pathetic.

I was in Tempe in Nov for a business trip, was going to catch a Yotes gm but when I was told how long it would take wo traffic i bagged that idea.

 

[santiclaws]

I was just going to post this:

 

[jom]

Buttman keeps insisting the team should stay in AZ....is it really worth it? I mean, the NHL wants the expansion money a team in Houston or Quebec would bring...but at cost of credibility having a team play in a 5000 seat arena seems "expensive" to me.

The AZ experiment is done...they need to move on.

jom

 

[santiclaws]

Buttman keeps insisting the team should stay in AZ....is it really worth it? I mean, the NHL wants the expansion money a team in Houston or Quebec would bring...but at cost of credibility having a team play in a 5000 seat arena seems "expensive" to me.

The AZ experiment is done...they need to move on.

jom

I think it has less to do with the location and more with the ownership. If a team in Tampa Bay can thrive, why can't a team in Phoenix?

 

[DryKing]

I think Helvetica is right.

If this team isn't contending by 2024-25 the problems go way beyond LD. I see no reason why they shouldn't be a Cup contender by then unless the all the kids flop, which looks unlikely right now.

And yes, they'll be able to afford his salary then. They'll have cleared a TON of cap space by then.

Personally I think a few on this board are too short sighted and do not understand the financial aspect. By the time Chycrhrun's extension comes due we will have had to resign our entire young core, all of which will be due for increases (some very significantly). On top of this we have $11m/season wrapped up in Doughty. Chrychrun, if he pans out like so many on this thread project him to, will be due $12-13m/season minimum. So are you telling me we are going to wrap $23M/season into two defensive players and still be competitive? We could, but it is very much not likely.

There is also a big different between a playoff team and cup contender. Blake projects to still be the GM, based on his extension, when Chychrun's extension comes does and knows he needs to add some quality scoring between now and a deep playoff run. He is going to make a more level long term bet given all the factors than Chrychrun unless Chrychrun comes at a reasonable price. Sure we could trade players here and there but are we really going to be able to roll with 3 big contracts (projecting one of our youngsters, if not more, pan out)?

Much of being a long term cup contender comes down to managing long term finances. It's not about getting the best players, but rather about putting together the best team.

 

[Helvetica]

Much of being a long term cup contender comes down to managing long term finances. It's not about getting the best players, but rather about putting together the best team.

yes and no. Managing long term finances is an absolute necessity, as you mentioned. But, im not sure I can name a team that's competitive that doesn't have some star players making star money. Personally, i think putting together the best team involves having some best players. You simply arent going to win the cup with a squad full of role players and blue collar types.

If Chychrun turns into a 12mil player by the time he needs to be re-signed, you thank your lucky stars.

 

[hokiecat]

Good callouts and I agree but there is a flip side. [URL=https://letsgokings.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=1]#1 [/URL] we would be banking on Chychrun to develop into the player we hope he can be and [URL=https://letsgokings.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=2]#2 [/URL] if he does, he will be due a heft pay raise in 2025/6.

So two questions:

1) Will the Kings be cup contenders by the 2024-5 season
2) If Chrychrun becomes the player we hope he will be, will the Kings be able to afford his salary beginning in 2025/6?

Sadly I see the answer to both being a pretty realistic No.

I'd say both are yes.
For #1 , if not then we're screwed. All the young talent should be sorted out by 2024 and the Kings should be either a serious playoff team or a rebuilder. If #1 is yes, then good. If #1 is no, then you trade JC for a package of prospects in 2024.
For #2 , Kopitar's contract will be over. So you have 10 million to put towards JC. Kopi is not going to be a 10M player in 2024-25. And we will have almost 3 years to see what JC really is in terms of a #1 versus a top-4. If he's the man, then it makes sense to pay him 8-9 million if he is providing GSVA at that level. If he's a top-4, then he gets a more modest raise.

The Kings will have the money if it is needed. But even better is we have time with the bargain contract to make an educated decision on what an appropriate future deal should look like. To put it another way, we won't do a horrible trade-and-extend like Chicago where you get a good player in Seth Jones but pay him 9+ million when Dom's model says he is a 5.8M guy.

 

[Helvetica]

Kopitar's contract will be over. So you have 10 million to put towards JC.

and that doesnt even account for the other contracts coming off between now and then...

Brown: 5.87mil
Quick: 5.8 mil
Athanasiou 2.7 mil
Maatta: 3.3 mil
Edler 3.5 mil

Dead Cap
Carter: 2.6 mil
Phaneuf: 1.0 mil
Richards 900k

Total: 25.7 mil coming off the books (plus Kopi's 10, but will probably re-sign for less) between now and then. And those are just the players i expect to be gone by then (or substantially reduced). The space is there.

 

[jt]

Personally I think a few on this board are too short sighted and do not understand the financial aspect. By the time Chycrhrun's extension comes due we will have had to resign our entire young core, all of which will be due for increases (some very significantly). On top of this we have $11m/season wrapped up in Doughty. Chrychrun, if he pans out like so many on this thread project him to, will be due $12-13m/season minimum. So are you telling me we are going to wrap $23M/season into two defensive players and still be competitive? We could, but it is very much not likely.

Like Helvetica said, if he's that fantastic of a D, then yeah. But I'd expect his upside to be Dougie Hamilton who just got paid $9 x 7. And I'd expect a little less so maybe $8 or $8.5 x 8 and I'd expect that fit fine under the cap.

There is also a big different between a playoff team and cup contender. Blake projects to still be the GM, based on his extension, when Chychrun's extension comes does and knows he needs to add some quality scoring between now and a deep playoff run. He is going to make a more level long term bet given all the factors than Chrychrun unless Chrychrun comes at a reasonable price.

Is there? I would have thought 2012 put that idea to rest. I'd agree that there's a difference between a playoff team and Cup favorite, but that's just opinion. When I see teams like Montreal, Dallas, Nashville, SJ, and the 2012 Kings make the Finals, I'm not sure there's much of a difference.

In any case, the way this team has shown it can play (3 points behind Vegas with only 1 extra game played), I think they're a playoff team this year and SHOULD be competing for the Cup by 25-26, if Byfield turns into a legit #1 center. If he doesn't, they're screwed anyway.

Sure we could trade players here and there but are we really going to be able to roll with 3 big contracts (projecting one of our youngsters, if not more, pan out)?

If we're projecting to 25-26 when Chychrun would get this hypothetical huge contract, who else would get one? Doughty would still be at $11M but Kopi will be MUCH lower than $10M and I don't see Arvidsson or Iafallo getting a big contract. Peterson? I doubt it. And of all the kids who other than Byfield could possibly be worth a big contract? Kaliyev? Sure, if scores 50+ goals for a couple seasons. Kupari, Durzi, Lizotte? I doubt it. And Byfield will get his contract in 24-25.Seeing what Hughes got, I wouldn't be surprised if he got something similar. But even at $10M I think they can definitely roll with Doughty, Byfied, and Chychrun having big contracts. Also, keep in mind that the cap is likely to start going up more than $1M at some point...I bet it does by 25-26.

Besides, if you manage a team always afraid to commit big money to great players, you'll just keep losing your best players. TB doesn't do that. Vegas doesn't do that. Washington doesn't. Pittsburgh doesn't.

Much of being a long term cup contender comes down to managing long term finances. It's not about getting the best players, but rather about putting together the best team.

Brooks' quote was my signature on LGK for 10 years, so I agree. But that's not about not paying top players. That's about getting guys who say "we before me" and that it's better to have players who will sacrifice individual goals for the team. Getting Chychrun and paying him market value still does that...assuming he's a "we before me" kinda guy.

And to be clear, I don't think I (or anyone else) knows that Chychrun is the the right guy. But running a team you have to take chances and if it's not him who's the top LD on the Kings? Bjornfot? Anderson? IMO, they need someone who's an excellent all-around player and those guys struggle badly with offense.

 

[jt]

I'd say both are yes.
For #1 , if not then we're screwed. All the young talent should be sorted out by 2024 and the Kings should be either a serious playoff team or a rebuilder. If #1 is yes, then good. If #1 is no, then you trade JC for a package of prospects in 2024.
For #2 , Kopitar's contract will be over. So you have 10 million to put towards JC. Kopi is not going to be a 10M player in 2024-25. And we will have almost 3 years to see what JC really is in terms of a #1 versus a top-4. If he's the man, then it makes sense to pay him 8-9 million if he is providing GSVA at that level. If he's a top-4, then he gets a more modest raise.

The Kings will have the money if it is needed. But even better is we have time with the bargain contract to make an educated decision on what an appropriate future deal should look like. To put it another way, we won't do a horrible trade-and-extend like Chicago where you get a good player in Seth Jones but pay him 9+ million when Dom's model says he is a 5.8M guy.

And it's not unusual anymore for teams to let middle age D go. The Bs did it with Krug, the Blues with Pietrangelo, and the Canes with Hamilton. So if you can't afford to keep him and you have other guys to take his place, let him walk.

 

[jammer06]

And it's not unusual anymore for teams to let middle age D go. The Bs did it with Krug, the Blues with Pietrangelo, and the Canes with Hamilton. So if you can't afford to keep him and you have other guys to take his place, let him walk.

If a guy's played his way to the payday, well that means you got the better end of the deal. The trick is that the teams that go mercilously down that path....it's been hard for them to find sustained success. Then again it's hard for anyone to find sustained success so there's that.

 

[Kurisu]

What jumped out at me were the polls about what teams agents steer their clients to and away from and why.

I've worked at airlines and airports for 30ish years and I've been around and worked directly with professional sports charters (MLB, NFL, NHL) in most of those years, and I can tell you everything on the list you quoted is consistent with what I've observed.

Some teams have generic charter aircraft, usually just leased airplanes from commercial airline inventory, some work with charter companies that have specific custom aircraft, and a few have team owned planes with big splashy liveries and logos. So there is definitely an obvious tier spectrum with what the organizations commit to their travel.

And one specific story, but it's an old one. I used to work on the airline side for a lot of NFL charters, and before the Rams left for St Louis, we used to get all the 49ers charters. And to this day I remember vividly how impressive they were to work with. They would always send an advance team to handle logistics before the flights arrived and departed. Making sure the equipment trucks were onsite, and catering was handled, etc. I remember specifically they would have every seat onboard pre-assigned and (for some reason) they used to have McDonalds orders sitting with a bag of each persons preference on their seats when the busses arrived. Seems trivial, but each individual players had a bag of whatever their favorite item was sitting on a seat with a sticker with their name and number on each seat back. The impression that their whole operation left me with, specifically as compared to other teams, was that their players didn't have to worry about a single thing other than focusing on game preparation. Every other detail was handled by their travel teams. You could just see how professional they were and how that environment would carry over onto the teams focus.

And not incidentally, their reps would always generously tip us with swag for handling their flights. For years I used to get hats and t-shirts and whatever else from their people. And not chintzy marketing junk, they would open the equipment containers and share team items with us out of appreciation. It just gave off the aura of an organization unconcerned with nickels and dimes and committed to success.

Other charters by comparison would have late busses, late equipment trucks, players sitting on planes waiting for loading to finish, etc.

So, yeah, there is a HUGE difference from a players perspective which organizations value their players and go above and beyond to make life easier for them to focus on just playing.

 

[DryKing]

and that doesnt even account for the other contracts coming off between now and then...

Brown: 5.87mil
Quick: 5.8 mil
Athanasiou 2.7 mil
Maatta: 3.3 mil
Edler 3.5 mil

Dead Cap
Carter: 2.6 mil
Phaneuf: 1.0 mil
Richards 900k

Total: 25.7 mil coming off the books (plus Kopi's 10, but will probably re-sign for less) between now and then. And those are just the players i expect to be gone by then (or substantially reduced). The space is there.

The problem is that you cannot replace them for nothing. Peterson already got a big increase starting next year, Kempe, Lemieux, Lizotte, Grundstrom, and Durzi are all due increase (Kempe and Durzi sizable), and Kaliyev, Byfield, Turcotte, and many not yet with the big club will be due raises by the time Chychrun's contract expires. Yes we do have players falling off in the time, and also the cap is due to increase but so too will inflation and along with it contract prices.

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/kings

My point is simply that you need a high confidence in Chychrun in order to pull the trigger on him - this won't be one that Blake will be able to swing and miss big on given what he will need to give up, and he knows that.

Like Helvetica said, if he's that fantastic of a D, then yeah. But I'd expect his upside to be Dougie Hamilton who just got paid $9 x 7. And I'd expect a little less so maybe $8 or $8.5 x 8 and I'd expect that fit fine under the cap.

By 2025-26? Not likely. He will go for quite a bit more than that if he is as good as people on this site are projecting.

Is there? I would have thought 2012 put that idea to rest. I'd agree that there's a difference between a playoff team and Cup favorite, but that's just opinion. When I see teams like Montreal, Dallas, Nashville, SJ, and the 2012 Kings make the Finals, I'm not sure there's much of a difference.

Yes there is, quite a big difference. It doesn't mean a dark horse cannot win (which if you recall the Kings were projected to do well during preseason predictions during that campaign then stalled out of the gate) but we are dealing in probabilities. I was one of the few on this board to predicted the Kings to be a playoff team this year, and went all in on it prior to the beginning of the season. Doesn't mean I would predict them to the win the cup, however.

In any case, the way this team has shown it can play (3 points behind Vegas with only 1 extra game played), I think they're a playoff team this year and SHOULD be competing for the Cup by 25-26, if Byfield turns into a legit #1 center. If he doesn't, they're screwed anyway.

Hence the future payday which will likely occur prior to 25-26

If we're projecting to 25-26 when Chychrun would get this hypothetical huge contract, who else would get one? Doughty would still be at $11M but Kopi will be MUCH lower than $10M and I don't see Arvidsson or Iafallo getting a big contract. Peterson? I doubt it. And of all the kids who other than Byfield could possibly be worth a big contract? Kaliyev? Sure, if scores 50+ goals for a couple seasons. Kupari, Durzi, Lizotte? I doubt it. And Byfield will get his contract in 24-25.Seeing what Hughes got, I wouldn't be surprised if he got something similar. But even at $10M I think they can definitely roll with Doughty, Byfied, and Chychrun having big contracts. Also, keep in mind that the cap is likely to start going up more than $1M at some point...I bet it does by 25-26.

It's death by a thousand paper cuts, look at how many contract increases are bound to occur by then and Byfield should get a big pay raise by that time if he is even half the player we project him to be. I think Durzi will be one to watch as well.

Besides, if you manage a team always afraid to commit big money to great players, you'll just keep losing your best players. TB doesn't do that. Vegas doesn't do that. Washington doesn't. Pittsburgh doesn't.

I like this, but if you do not manage the finances you will lose even more great players...

Brooks' quote was my signature on LGK for 10 years, so I agree. But that's not about not paying top players. That's about getting guys who say "we before me" and that it's better to have players who will sacrifice individual goals for the team. Getting Chychrun and paying him market value still does that...assuming he's a "we before me" kinda guy.

Show me one player who has taken a home town discount to stay with the Kings under Blake. I'll wait...

And to be clear, I don't think I (or anyone else) knows that Chychrun is the the right guy. But running a team you have to take chances and if it's not him who's the top LD on the Kings? Bjornfot? Anderson? IMO, they need someone who's an excellent all-around player and those guys struggle badly with offense.

Then play GM and give me some alternatives. You asked me to do so, so only fair you play as well.

 

[jt]

If a guy's played his way to the payday, well that means you got the better end of the deal. The trick is that the teams that go mercilously down that path....it's been hard for them to find sustained success. Then again it's hard for anyone to find sustained success so there's that.

Yeah, well then they just need to find a Kucherov so they can have a $90M+ cap. lol

 

[Helvetica]

The problem is that you cannot replace them for nothing. Peterson already got a big increase starting next year, Kempe, Lemieux, Lizotte, Grundstrom, and Durzi are all due increase (Kempe and Durzi sizable), and Kaliyev, Byfield, Turcotte, and many not yet with the big club will be due raises by the time Chychrun's contract expires. Yes we do have players falling off in the time, and also the cap is due to increase but so too will inflation and along with it contract prices.

I agree that all of those players need to get raises, but i think maybe i disagree on how much they are likely to get. Kempe is the only player id expect to see a big jump, and even then, what is he going to get? 5mil AAV? It'll fluctuate depending on how many years they decide to go with, but most of the other guys you've listed aren't going to be getting big bumps.

Personally, when i look at who's leaving, how much cap is opening up, and who is due to get raises, i see a lot of flexibility still. I have no idea if Chychrun will become a star player, but i'd certainly hope that he would if Blake decides to trade for him, because finding ways to fit high end players on the team is easier than simply finding them at all.

I do agree with you that Blake has to be frugal, and cant just hand out cash to everyone, but i'm not of the mindset that you actively try to avoid star players because you have to pay them what they're worth.